Effect of Central Plains War on Manchurian Invasion

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hselassi
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Effect of Central Plains War on Manchurian Invasion

#1

Post by hselassi » 22 Jun 2015, 03:45

I always thought that the invasion of Manchuria was due to the Young Marshal not wanting to play ball with the Japanese with the timing dictated by Japanese realization that he was no more their puppet than the Old Marshal and Chinese military force not being an issue. But I just finished reading an essay that did not dispute the cause of the invasion, but listed the timing as due to the Young Marshal being south with half his army fighting in the Central Plains War and the Chinese inability to react to the Japanese due to the losses (military and economic) of the Central Plains War.
Is this a valid argument? Did the Young Marshal have sufficient forces to prevent (or at least give a bloody nose to) a Japanese invasion? Without the losses of the Central Plains War did the Chinese have sufficient strength to react to the Japanese (I am assuming that, as occurred in '37, the warlords would join the Central Forces against the Japanese)?
My understanding was that the Chinese were nowhere near capable of resisting the Japanese (resistance in '37 being more a political than military decision), so the idea that, as early as 1931, its military strength was a factor in Japanese decisions does not compute.

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YC Chen
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Re: Effect of Central Plains War on Manchurian Invasion

#2

Post by YC Chen » 22 Jun 2015, 07:54

Hello,

AFAIK this is not a "new" theory at least in China. There are many Chinese articles which agree with this theory. I'm not interested in strategic matters, but would be interested to see if any concret evidence of this could be found from Japanese or Chinese sources.

As for the military power of the Young Marshal's force, I believe they, if better organized, could be a considerable obstacle to the Japanese invasion. The main part of it was in fact better armed and trained than most of the Chinese troops at that time.


Jerry Asher
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Re: Effect of Central Plains War on Manchurian Invasion

#3

Post by Jerry Asher » 22 Jun 2015, 08:12

Hi Hselassi: May I offer a different take? The Manchurian decision to enter the 1930 counterrevolution and once again side with Jiang's Central government came after much negotiation. The insurgents kept including and proclaiming that Zhang was with them. He proclaimed his neutrality often, but in July came the first hints that might change, in August came more concrete suggestions that that neutrality would not hold for long and weapons from Manchuria were now being delivered to the Central government. In late September when Manchuria reups with Central government it gets A) Hebei (just as his father wanted) B) some broader authority north of the HuangHe (Yellow River), c) clearer authority over railroads north of Beijing.
The kicker is not 1930 but 1931, when the short insurgency of 13th Route Army draws in two more Manchurian divisions into south Hebei
Let me really stick my neck out here----It's not the Central Plains War, but the counterrevolution of Sun Ke, Wang Jingwei, the military governor of Guangdong Province, Eugene Chen and even Hu Hamin --these guys are in contact with Japan, the CO of the 13th likes Japan, and might have even picked up funds as well as political support. In addition the CCP including base areas north of the Yangzi, are engaging Central troops.
Finally, i have an issue with use of term invasion, it just seems a bit more nuanced. Li Hongzhang had declared sometime in the 1870's or 80's that China would have difficulties defending places held "in common,"--that fits the bill in southern Manchuria.

hselassi
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Re: Effect of Central Plains War on Manchurian Invasion

#4

Post by hselassi » 28 Jun 2015, 01:59

Jerry,

Thank you for the additional information, and I agree with Li Hongzhang, which is why I doubt the effect of the Central Plains War. While it is interesting whether the counterrevolutionary uprising you described would have affected the timing (not the weakening of the Young Marshal, but their allies/puppets needing help) of the Japanese attack.

YC,

Interesting to hear that this is just not a one-off essay, but a valid area of study. Pity there are no primary sources available.

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