The Anti-Leningrad Anti-Rostov

[BDV]

I was wondering whether after reaching the Pskov-Narva line, german attack would have fared better if AGN would have shifted forces south-east and form the north edge of an thrust on Moscow.

The 2nd Panzer would still have been shifted south to assist with the Kiev pocket, but the shift of AGN means germans would still be able to push on Moscow. Now, given historical RKKA resilience, I think that the initial attack still gets stymied and germans have to stop for 3-4 weeks in late August September (and to wait for the AGS and second Panzer to finish off the Kieve pocket and move back).

But if an ATL Typhoon is started in late September from the Rzhev-Vyazma-Bryansk line (on account of the more forceful german advance in the center), would german forces be able to envelop Moscow, as they hoped to do historicaly? Would they conquer Moscow and hold it, or would their thrusts be beaten back with smash-mouth Zhukovite tactics, in a Napoleon a la allemande?

[Buchan]

I think they may well surround Moscow but to hold it would depend on the how well Moscow itself resists.
If the occupation was quick with little resistance from the general population the Germans may have enough time to secure and develop supply lines into the city and be able to hold it.

[vondeckbar]

I can never get my head around why Hitler ordered the attack towards Tikvin in late Oct. '41 when he did not have a tight grip on Leningrad. I know hindsight is 20/20 but it does not take a genius to look at a topographic map and notice the Volkhov river running North to Lake Ladoga and see a solid river line to anchor a defensive line along given the already lack of troops in AGN. Say you reach the mouth of the Volkhov river and then take stock. You will have extended the encirclement far enough east to make supplies across the half-frozen lake next to impossible and not have stretched your forces to thin or expose them in a salient. I believe as the shore line past the mouth continues to the Northeast there were no other ports that could have handled supplies. The town of Volkhov was the last good port/harbor. Instead of lunging at Tikvin you can use those troops to eradicate the Orianebaum pocket which ended up tying down 4 infantry divisions for 2 1/2 years. Then once Leningrad capitulates you have 2 to 3 Armee Korps ready for use. There can be no doubt that had this scenario transpired the city would not have held out for long. But on the flip side the Soviets would not have had to supply the city and could use those assets elsewhere as well. As I sit here in the comfort of my house I shudder to think what it would have been like in that city had history followed this course. Regards, D.

[BDV]

As things progressed, I'd posit that Leningrad became more of a prestige thing for the Soviets, although there are strong ideological reasons why the old capital should not have been left in enemy hands... Between the Kiev and Leningrad intelligentsia an ideological challenge to the Muscovite iron-fisted bolshevism could be stoked by an intelligent occupier. And that Djugashvilli might fear as much as the german invader.

...

But that's a tall order for the merry band of mass murderers leading Fuehrer's legions.`

[vondeckbar]

Good point. The pocked-mark one would certainly have something to fear. But alas, the little man with the funny mustache had different ideas which did not include the Ukrainians, white russians or the Baltic peoples. Take care, D.