Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and UK

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Marcelo Jenisch
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Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and UK

#1

Post by Marcelo Jenisch » 22 Jul 2014, 06:30

Hello,

Here's the scenario:

September 1941: due to being fragile than historically, the Soviet state collapses to the German invasion. The Germans suffer the same number of casualities as they had suffered historically until this point. Britain fights on and Germany declares war to the US in December 1941 as historically.

Anglo-American military leaders decided that even if a negotiated peace with Germany would likely have to be made, their best option would be first try to weaken Germany as maximum as possible by means of aerial bombing. So they decided that the maximum quantity of resources and manpower would be provided to the aviation industry and air forces (logically that means significative cuts in ground and naval forces as compared do historical levels). In the Pacific, the posture will be to countain the Japanese and adopt a adopt a defensive position. The B-29 would be schedule as maximum priority to the European Theatrer as soon as possible.

According to British historian Adam Tooze in his book The Wages of Destruction (unfortnately I'm not with the book right now), the Germans conducted Operation Barbarossa calibrated to unleash the maximum quantity of resources to the Luftwaffe as soon as the USSR collapsed, just to counter the expected Anglo-American air war against Germany. Exactly what would happen here and what I'm proposing the Allies also would do with their air power.

So, what are your views of how this scenario would have developed?

P.S. I'm aware this scenario contains significative complexity. There are many things to be considerated, like how Germany would be benefited with the conquered Soviet territory. Also, I made claims which I frankly do not have any idea and tried to deduce, like the Allies being able to expand their air strength by detriment of ground and naval forces, reduce strength in the Pacific, etc. I'm sorry if I claimed any absurd. Correct me in anything you wish and if this thread is impractical to discussion the moderation should promptly closed it.

Thanks since now for the attention,

Marcelo Jenisch

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Re: Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and U

#2

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 22 Jul 2014, 13:38

Might be best if everyone takes a deep breath, steps back, and search out the other threads on the same subject here and other forums. Reading some of those before posting here might save a lot of wasted bandwidth. It is a complex subject & is liable to turn into another Barbarosa thread.


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Re: Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and U

#3

Post by BDV » 22 Jul 2014, 18:23

Should a Soviet collapse occur, I see the battle moving to Middle East.

Basically, it would be along the British effort in North Africa. Engage the enemy where his logistical constraints are more severe than ones logistical constraints. This had already been set up by the success of Operation Exporter, the Empyr's squelching of the Rashid Ali rebellion in Mesopotamia, and the Bi-imperial co-occupation of Persia.

Free-Soviet forces, numbering anywhere from 500000 to 2 million would be joining the WAllies.

The Uboat war and the "Speer Production Miracle" would be much less, though, as adjustments to Axis war effort would have to be made somewhere to account for increased Wehrmacht and auxiliaries' battle prowess.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

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Re: Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and U

#4

Post by David1819 » 22 Jul 2014, 18:25

If the USSR collapsed the Russian people would all retreat past the Ural mountains, The 3rd Reich had no intentions of going further than that point. A new state could be formed that would still be very large and the US could supply it from Alaska so there is always the possibility of a 2nd eastern front which would put Germany back into a war of attrition.

However a collapse of the USSR would probably result in AGS sweeping through the caucus region and all the way through to Palestine this becomes very complicated because Germany at first wanted the Jews out of Europe and agreed with the Zionists in the Haarvara agreement for all European Jews to settle in Palestine the British also supported this. If the USSR collapsed in September 1941 I guess that would have satisfied Hitler in his war against Bolsheviks this would mean Hitler would not have held the December 12th 1941 Reich chancellery meeting instructing Himmler to kill all the Jews as partisans as a result of the failure of Barbarossa.

The alteration of the chain of events is very difficult to speculate I would say if the conflict continues whoever constructs a nuclear weapon first would be the ultimate winner.

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Re: Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and U

#5

Post by Marcelo Jenisch » 22 Jul 2014, 20:14

I appreciate your considerations, but I still stick to the air war for the momment, since this is the thread's focus and it's easy to get lost in subtopics in a thread of this sort.

I remembered to have read in The Wages of Destruction Tooze mentioning that the British were not considerating a cross-channel invasion after the fall of France. Rather than, that they were planning to built a massive bomber fleet to pulverize the German industry and win the war in that way IIRC (I guess this British idea was on the basis that only the UK and it's Empire would carry out the war against Germany).

While I don't know if the British idea to win the war by means of a bombing campaign alone can be endorsed, would a German success in Russia in September '41 bring significative changes in the Bomber Command's campaign against Germany? In other words: the German night air defense would have been substantially improved in the next two years due to the victory in Russia?

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Re: Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and U

#6

Post by ChrisDR68 » 22 Jul 2014, 21:05

Given this scenario I see Germany still losing the war.

Just as in the OTL Hitler declaring war on the US dooms Germany as he completely underestimated the industrial and economic muscle of that country.

A conquered USSR would still need substantial German frontier forces guarding the Ural Mountains (possibly 1.5 million troops and at least half the panzerwaffe and Luftwaffe). I don't think Speer could have done a great deal better in this ATL in increasing military production as it would likely have taken just as long to get German industry fully geared up as it in fact did in 1943 and 1944.

We're probably looked at a cross channel invasion of France in May 1945 instead of June 1944 though as the Americans would likely need an army of 4 million front line soldiers and 10,000 aircraft to successfully fight off the much larger Heer and Luftwaffe and would need this extra time to train them and build the equipment.

Normandy to Berlin would almost certainly have been much bloodier than in the OTL but I still see the Allied forces winning in the end.

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Re: Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and U

#7

Post by BDV » 22 Jul 2014, 21:33

Marcelo Jenisch wrote:I appreciate your considerations, but I still stick to the air war for the momment, since this is the thread's focus and it's easy to get lost in subtopics in a thread of this sort.
The evolution of the air-war in of itself is a worthwhile topic, obviously.

However, I still think that the major chunk of of the UK-Axis (soon to be Wally-Axis) war would be the land war in the Middle East (likely Caucasus) and Soviet Union beyond the Volga.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

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Re: Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and U

#8

Post by Marcelo Jenisch » 23 Jul 2014, 00:21

BDV wrote:However, I still think that the major chunk of of the UK-Axis (soon to be Wally-Axis) war would be the land war in the Middle East (likely Caucasus) and Soviet Union beyond the Volga.
Well, maybe we can touch in a point which includes both the air war and the Caucasus. I have always wondered if the Western Allies could have bombed a German-held Caucasus from Iran and other parts of the Middle East, in order to heavily disruput the oil extraction.

BTW, in this topic: http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 7&start=30

There was a discussion about the feasibility of Operation Pike (a British plan to bomb the Caucasus oilfields considerating they belonged to the USSR).

Of course, if the Soviets, with defeat in sight, could quickly sabotate those oil fields (maybe with help of the Western Allies), the things would become easier for the Allies. Had the Germans put their hands in that oil, I guess it could alter many things in this scenario. Even if the sabotage was possible, my impression is that the Germans would have tried something to avoid this very thing to happen. Just don't ask me what they could have done to avoid it, I'm just trying to use some abstract logic. Of course, one also needs to discuss how the Germans would transport that oil even if they put their hands on it.

Really, this thread is too much complex. 8O

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Re: Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and U

#9

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 23 Jul 2014, 00:46

Marcelo Jenisch wrote:...
Well, maybe we can touch in a point which includes both the air war and the Caucasus. I have always wondered if the Western Allies could have bombed a German-held Caucasus from Iran and other parts of the Middle East, in order to heavily disruput the oil extraction.

BTW, in this topic: http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 7&start=30

There was a discussion about the feasibility of Operation Pike (a British plan to bomb the Caucasus oilfields considerating they belonged to the USSR).

...
This was one of the secondary planning missions of 'United States Army Middle East Air Forces', which Bereton took command of in June 1942. Both the US and the Brits had a continuing interest in if they would have to fight the Germans across the Middle East. This is one reason why developing port facilities in the Persian Gulf, the Persian Railroad, and other infrastructure went into high gear when the Soviet Union was attacked. US contractors were at work there before the US entered the war. The Brits had been doing some preparatory work for expanding the existing airfields in mesopotamia and Persia, and heavy bomber raids on captured Soviet oil production sites from those airfields was on paper quite possible. Not much different from the USAAF raids on Rabaul from Australian/New Guinea air fields in the spring of 1942, or the US 10th AF Adanman Islands raid in April 1942.

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Re: Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and U

#10

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 23 Jul 2014, 00:56

Marcelo Jenisch wrote:I appreciate your considerations, but I still stick to the air war for the momment, since this is the thread's focus and it's easy to get lost in subtopics in a thread of this sort.

I remembered to have read in The Wages of Destruction Tooze mentioning that the British were not considerating a cross-channel invasion after the fall of France. Rather than, that they were planning to built a massive bomber fleet to pulverize the German industry and win the war in that way IIRC (I guess this British idea was on the basis that only the UK and it's Empire would carry out the war against Germany).

While I don't know if the British idea to win the war by means of a bombing campaign alone can be endorsed, would a German success in Russia in September '41 bring significative changes in the Bomber Command's campaign against Germany? In other words: the German night air defense would have been substantially improved in the next two years due to the victory in Russia?

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Re: Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and U

#11

Post by Marcelo Jenisch » 23 Jul 2014, 01:10

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
Marcelo Jenisch wrote:...
Well, maybe we can touch in a point which includes both the air war and the Caucasus. I have always wondered if the Western Allies could have bombed a German-held Caucasus from Iran and other parts of the Middle East, in order to heavily disruput the oil extraction.

BTW, in this topic: http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 7&start=30

There was a discussion about the feasibility of Operation Pike (a British plan to bomb the Caucasus oilfields considerating they belonged to the USSR).

...
This was one of the secondary planning missions of 'United States Army Middle East Air Forces', which Bereton took command of in June 1942. Both the US and the Brits had a continuing interest in if they would have to fight the Germans across the Middle East. This is one reason why developing port facilities in the Persian Gulf, the Persian Railroad, and other infrastructure went into high gear when the Soviet Union was attacked. US contractors were at work there before the US entered the war. The Brits had been doing some preparatory work for expanding the existing airfields in mesopotamia and Persia, and heavy bomber raids on captured Soviet oil production sites from those airfields was on paper quite possible. Not much different from the USAAF raids on Rabaul from Australian/New Guinea air fields in the spring of 1942, or the US 10th AF Adanman Islands raid in April 1942.
Nice Carl, interesting info.

But from the Allied perspective, my mere impression is that sabotage would be the most desirable course. Of course, if it could be done quickly. Or both things could be done in conjunction (bombing and sabotage). But I'm still with the impression that the Germans would not only try, but try ferociously to avoid any sabotage in the oil fields.

Curiously, according to Tooze in an interview:
So by the summer of 1941 the Germans are calmly assuming that the southern flank of their offensive will reach as far not only as the Crimea, but the Caucasus by the end of 1941, so as to enable them by 1942 to bring on stream the oilfields of Baku, and what we now know as Azerbaijan, as a key element in the German strategic planning system. And the invasion to drive a prong of the German armed forces as far south as that, let alone to build the pipeline of the structure that will be necessary to extract the oil from there, is a scale and a dimension of military planning which the Germans are entirely remote from at this point, because the German army’s assumption is the war has to be won in the first 500 kilometres of this penetration.
http://ww2history.com/experts/Adam_Tooz ... in_the_war

The Germans were apparentely "calm" according to Tooze :P . Well, it's pretty logic that the Germans would considerate some major adversities in such a situation, like the scorched earth possibilty in the oil fields. Unless of course, that the scorched earth policy is being overestimated by me in the possibility of it's execution and/or the German capability to repair sabotated oil fields.

Anyway, we apparentely have an answer for a question I posed previously: the Germans wanted a pipeline to carry the Caucasian oil. According to Tooze, they also expected the oil extraction to start in 1942. By 1942, the US would be already in the war and I guess that it would be easier for the Allies to try hit the Caucasus oil fields by means of bombing.

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Re: Soviet collapse and all-out air war

#12

Post by BDV » 23 Jul 2014, 01:53

... to pile on the land war angle, the ability of the Wehrmacht to fight in pursuit of fleeing RKKA forces, across three major rivers before summer 1942 (Dniepr, Don, and Volga) appears very questionable. Dniepr alone gave them fits, leading to pretty desperate (however ingenious) measures.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

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Re: Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and U

#13

Post by Marcelo Jenisch » 23 Jul 2014, 02:49

http://www.azer.com/aiweb/categories/ma ... _ww22.html
On January 11, 1940, the British Embassy in Moscow notified London that demolishing Baku's oil fields would be "a knock-out" for the Soviets. According to the document, "Basic Strategies of the War" submitted on January 23, 1940, to the British General Headquarters by the Staff Commands, "The Russian economy was strongly dependent on oil supplies from Baku", a region which was easily accessible for British dive-bombers stationed in Iraq.

Mr. McLeen, a Sovietologist with the British Foreign Office, observed that British and French Air Forces would be able to cause substantial damage both to the oil wells and refineries in Baku and the northern Caucasus, as well as to the system of pumps and oil pipelines between Baku and Batum (Georgia).

According to a report submitted on February 22, 1940, by General Gamelen to French Prime Minister Daladye, since Baku provided 75% of all oil requirements of the USSR, he believed the Soviets would fall into crisis if those sources were lost.

"Dependence on oil supplies from the Caucasus is the fundamental weakness of Russian economy. The Armed Forces were totally dependent on this source also for their motorized agriculture. More than 90% of oil extraction and 80% of refinement was located in the Caucasus (primarily Baku). Therefore, interruption of oil supplies on any large scale would have far-reaching consequences and could even result in the collapse of all the military, industrial and agricultural systems of Russia."

In April 1940 Intelligence flights by the British and French Air Forces did fly over the Absheron Peninsula where Baku is located. However, the bombing mission was not carried out although everything was in place to do so by the end of June. More likely than not, this was meant as a threat to pressure Stalin's regime. However, after Hitler invaded Holland, Belgium and France on May 10, 1940, the "Absheron targets" lost their significance.
This mentions data of the time. Anyway, interesting.

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Re: Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and U

#14

Post by Marcelo Jenisch » 23 Jul 2014, 03:03

If Germany conquered the region, I guess the Germans would allocate a strong air defense to the area (including a substantial quantity of fighter planes). I think that maybe Allied night bombing raids would have compensanted for the German daylight fighter presence. And if I'm not wrong, the soil in that region is literally inflammable, which maybe could compensate for bombing accuracy. On the other hand, the idea of carry the war to the Middle-East is starting to make sense to me. The Germans would be very eager to expell the Allies from the region in order to defend their Caucasian territory. Not to mention that the Luftwaffe would be every eager to hit Allied bomber bases which could launch bombings to attack the Causus (of course, if the LW had capability to hit those bases, which I do not know).

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Re: Soviet collapse and all-out air war: Germany vs US and U

#15

Post by Von Schadewald » 23 Jul 2014, 13:04

If the Russians collapse before Pearl Harbour, would the Japanese reconsider their Western Option of seizing Siberia even beyond Lake Baikal?

What'd be the Soviet and Stalin's response to hearing that the Japanese were advancing against them as well from the east?

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