Amphibious Assault on Crete July 1941

[BDV]

I was wondering whether it was a realistic proposition for the Axis to attempt the attack on Crete with mostly/exclusively amphibious elements, with mixed Italo-German airsupport during the end of July-beginning of August time frame, which would allow for movement of the required amphibious assets to the area.

[Old_Fossil]

On the plus side the Axis has more time to organize a proper invasion fleet. That's the only thing going for them.

On the down side:
The Royal Navy is fully recovered from the evacuation.
The forces in Crete have months to recover, resupply and dig in.
The Luftwaffe is fully committed to Russia. Not nearly enough planes available to ensure control of the sea during the day.
and the trump card: Ultra will give everything away.

Given that the invasion fleet will take longer than available daylight to reach Crete the Royal Navy will have ample opportunity to swoop at night and annihilate the Axis invasion fleet even if the Germans manage to scrape up enough airpower to keep the RN away during the day.

[phylo_roadking]

On the down side:
The Royal Navy is fully recovered from the evacuation.
The forces in Crete have months to recover, resupply and dig in.
The Luftwaffe is fully committed to Russia. Not nearly enough planes available to ensure control of the sea during the day.
and the trump card: Ultra will give everything away.

Not to mention Maleme extended and improved, and the planned two new airfields possibly opened. Malta would have housed a considerably stronger air defence force than that historically there in May 1941...and it would have been one NOT inhibited by the terrible state of the pre-invasion runway at Maleme!

The defenders on land would have at least two more months to make up all the shortages of equipment and arms recorded on the eve of the May invasion.

They would also have by then armed and trained several more of the 1,000-man "regiments" of the locals that gave such sterling service in May 1941...and improved those already in existence by the OTL invasion.

Suda Bay would have by then become the naval anchorage Cunningham planned it to be to dominate the Aegean under air cover flying from the island. And he wouldn't have been hampered by the losses his command suffered north of the island during the OTL invasion....OR during the Crete evacuation.

[BDV]

On the plus side the Axis has more time to organize a proper invasion fleet. That's the only thing going for them.

The assets used for, and more importantly lost in Merkur. That too. E.g., redeployment of German assets from Greece ran into some nasty trouble courtesy of British submariners.

On the down side:
The Royal Navy is fully recovered from the evacuation.
The forces in Crete have months to recover, resupply and dig in.

With heavy weapons taken from the Cyrenaican theater?

The Luftwaffe is fully committed to Russia. Not nearly enough planes available to ensure control of the sea during the day.

Germans are not the only factor, it depends on the Italian and British (RN) commitment.

and the trump card: Ultra will give everything away.

So some excuse will be presented for the German success in Dodecanese Campaign.

Given that the invasion fleet will take longer than available daylight to reach Crete the Royal Navy will have ample opportunity to swoop at night and annihilate the Axis invasion fleet even if the Germans manage to scrape up enough airpower to keep the RN away during the day.

Swoop in ... from Alexandria? Suda Bay to become the second La Valletta? Then fewer assets to fortify Tobruq and points east.

[phylo_roadking]

Given that the invasion fleet will take longer than available daylight to reach Crete the Royal Navy will have ample opportunity to swoop at night and annihilate the Axis invasion fleet even if the Germans manage to scrape up enough airpower to keep the RN away during the day.

Swoop in ... from Alexandria? Suda Bay to become the second La Valletta? Then fewer assets to fortify Tobruq and points east.

OTL, on the eve of the May invasion, Suda Bay already had the highest concetration of AA in the Eastern Mediterranean. And using Suda as a naval base to dominate the Eastern Med was exactly what Cunningham planned.

On land - BATTLEAXE was a month over, Wavell was on the way out due to its failure, and he wouldn't be there to get in the way of sending assets to Crete...as he did in April/May...including lying to Winston that tank reinforcements had been sent from the TIGER convoy! Rommel had reached as far east as he could that time - and the British had just realised it. So they were freed up to an extent in the Western Desert for a brief moment.

Meanwhile - all the "useless mouths" caught on Crete by the invasion would have been withdrawn to the Delta...and Freyberg or whoever was in command already had enough assets to cover the island's potential landing points. That was the problem in May; as the airborne offensive progressed...he kept them there! The subject of decades of debate was the claim that noone in London told him that the two seaborne flotillas had been turned back...thus potentially releasing those anti-invasion forces to be used in time against the FJ!

[Old_Fossil]

Given that the invasion fleet will take longer than available daylight to reach Crete the Royal Navy will have ample opportunity to swoop at night and annihilate the Axis invasion fleet even if the Germans manage to scrape up enough airpower to keep the RN away during the day.

Swoop in ... from Alexandria? Suda Bay to become the second La Valletta? Then fewer assets to fortify Tobruq and points east.

OTL, on the eve of the May invasion, Suda Bay already had the highest concetration of AA in the Eastern Mediterranean. And using Suda as a naval base to dominate the Eastern Med was exactly what Cunningham planned.

I think it is fair to say that clearing the RN and RAF from Crete would be a pre-requisite for launching an amphibious assault. If that can't be achieved the ships will just stay in port. In any case, in the OTL the RN destroyed the Axis invasion fleets with ships that were not based at Suda Bay. Nor do I think they sortied from Alexandria after the invasion fleet sailed. They were already at sea waiting. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[BDV]

I think it is fair to say that clearing the RN and RAF from Crete would be a pre-requisite for launching an amphibious assault. If that can't be achieved the ships will just stay in port. In any case, in the OTL the RN destroyed the Axis invasion fleets with ships that were not based at Suda Bay. Nor do I think they sortied from Alexandria after the invasion fleet sailed. They were already at sea waiting. Please correct me if I am wrong.

But historically, one thing (evacuation of Greece) turned into another (defeat of German invasion fleet), and another (RN evacuation of Crete). The British Fleet was already at Sea. Would it just sail about for two months, playing cat-and-mouse with the Regias? What shape would it be then when Germans would bring up the heat?

[Old_Fossil]

Your reply answers itself. The evacuation from Greece ended weeks before the invasion of Crete in the OTL. So either the RN did "hang around" for several weeks or they sortied in good time from Alex to deal with the invasion threat.

[ChristopherPerrien]

Given that the invasion fleet will take longer than available daylight to reach Crete the Royal Navy will have ample opportunity to swoop at night and annihilate the Axis invasion fleet even if the Germans manage to scrape up enough airpower to keep the RN away during the day.

Swoop in ... from Alexandria? Suda Bay to become the second La Valletta? Then fewer assets to fortify Tobruq and points east.

OTL, on the eve of the May invasion, Suda Bay already had the highest concetration of AA in the Eastern Mediterranean. And using Suda as a naval base to dominate the Eastern Med was exactly what Cunningham planned.

I think it is fair to say that clearing the RN and RAF from Crete would be a pre-requisite for launching an amphibious assault. If that can't be achieved the ships will just stay in port. In any case, in the OTL the RN destroyed the Axis invasion fleets with ships that were not based at Suda Bay. Nor do I think they sortied from Alexandria after the invasion fleet sailed. They were already at sea waiting. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Amphibiously assaulting defenses on Crete were simply out of the question as landing in an unopposed sector was so much easier. No one could do an amphib assault, especially the Germans facing British sea superiority in the Med. Old memory from a wargame I use to play and perhaps historic. Elements of a German Mountain Unit for an amphibious "LANDING" were destroyed during Merkur(a company or two) in convoy to Crete during the op.

To tell the truth the only people who ever did a "successful" amphib assault was the US, everything else was an amphib landing except Wake Island(which was an outpost) and Corregidor(which was a drawn out seige), the Beach defense on Gold Beach does prolly that that an amphib assault . Where the line between an amphib landing and assault is considerable depending on your POV and definition of the same. It is hazardous to even try an amphib landing on a friendly beach as it is dangerous to do, adding some minor constabulary forces might swing a few more from landings to assaults.

[phylo_roadking]

I think it is fair to say that clearing the RN and RAF from Crete would be a pre-requisite for launching an amphibious assault. If that can't be achieved the ships will just stay in port.

The sum total of the OTL air defence of Crete through April and May was - a couple of flights of Blenheim F fighters evacuated from Greece, an handful of Sea Glaldiators (a couple made it on to the Delta, but a couple were lost in transit), a "squadron of Brewster Buffalos" that Clark and others say were rendered useless by broken interrupter gear - I've never checked further on that...and two flights of Hurricanes later sent - under GREAT protest - from the Delta; these latter rapidly took heavy losses and the survivors were soon flown back to the Delta.

Now - figure in a decent level of fighter cover...made a squadron of Wellingtons or Blenheims able to disturb invasion embarkation...and radar cover - this with a LOT more time of warning than on Malta...and that changes the complexion of events hugely.

The distance of Crete from mainland Greek airfields and ones in the Peloponnese meant a long travel time back and forth for the Luftwaffe, that could be pretty accurately timed to their arrival over the island each time - even without radar! OTL, the defenders knew that the "morning hate" would arrive a given time after dawn - dump their ordnance or strafe - and disappear again for another two hours at least. They knew to get defenders under cover and more importantly under cover out of open view and observation - thus hiding their defensive positions for the coming invasion.

[Old_Fossil]

On land - BATTLEAXE was a month over, Wavell was on the way out due to its failure, and he wouldn't be there to get in the way of sending assets to Crete...as he did in April/May...including lying to Winston that tank reinforcements had been sent from the TIGER convoy! Rommel had reached as far east as he could that time - and the British had just realised it. So they were freed up to an extent in the Western Desert for a brief moment.

And let's not forget the British 50th Infantry Division. In the OTL this division was sent to Cyprus in June to defend it. In this WI it is now available for deployment to Crete, along with any other units sent to Cyprus in the OTL.

[BDV]

And let's not forget the British 50th Infantry Division. In the OTL this division was sent to Cyprus in June to defend it. In this WI it is now available for deployment to Crete, along with any other units sent to Cyprus in the OTL.

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From wikimedia.org



If Germans don't push a tight schedule, it opens the mid and eastern Crete as targets for invasion. Also Axis concentration East of Crete can be threatening to Cyprus too. Without the withdrawn ANZAC, the 50th might even have to stay in strategic reserve in Alexandria. Once Germans had shot their wad, however successfully, the FJ wasn't coming knocking anywhere else that year. One could AFFORD to play hardball in Syria, Iraq, Iran, Somalia, and hold strong in Tobruq and Malta, simultaneously, and at the same time!

[Old_Fossil]

BDV, you really need to do a proper WI and lay out what has happened to cause the Axis to mount a July/August invasion of Crete. It makes a big difference if the FJ have been decimated taking Malta in January 1941 (or entirely wiped out in failing to take Malta or Crete). What is the state of the Italian Navy? Has it suffered casualties from a Malta operation? Did it abandon the FJ on Malta or suffer heavy casualties itself? Has Barbarosa been delayed? All these things matter.

[phylo_roadking]

If Germans don't push a tight schedule, it opens the mid and eastern Crete as targets for invasion.

They OTL already were; the Italians ended up landing in the easst of the island. Its the middle of the island you need to land on and exploit first - because it's the only part of the island at that point joined by anything ressembling a road network I.E. one metalled road built by the British. Crete isn't really tank terrain - narrow lanes sided by high banks or ditchs, small fields marked out by dry stone walls. It's very like Malta...but not as easy!!! That's why the "tank actions" of the invasion were movements along known roads/lanes into villages or to approach strongpoints.

Also Axis concentration East of Crete can be threatening to Cyprus too. Without the withdrawn ANZAC, the 50th might even have to stay in strategic reserve in Alexandria. Once Germans had shot their wad, however successfully, the FJ wasn't coming knocking anywhere else that year. One could AFFORD to play hardball in Syria, Iraq, Iran, Somalia, and hold strong in Tobruq and Malta, simultaneously, and at the same time!

They don't have anything to concentrate east of Crete. A few Italian squadrons on Rhodes, and the garrison of Crete itself...and virtually zero naval force. OTL they could only scare up two glorified Italian torpedo boats as escorts for the flotillas IIRC. A successful amphibious invasion of Crete doesn't threaten Cyprus...because it can't be repeated across the greater distance. Not with the RN cotrolling everything east/south of Crete. In fact, as the war went on and RN coastal assets etc. were moved up into Lebanon away from threat in the Delta - their domination of the Eastern Med around Cyprus became debateably even greater!

[thaddeus_c]

trying to find the exact comment but Hitler had expected Italians (or agreed with Italians beforehand) for Crete to be taken "in a lightning strike" PRIOR to an invasion of Greece(?)

wonder the effect if the Gotha GO-242 glider was available in large numbers? (could carry a whole troop of 20) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gotha_Go_242

they also built a version with flying boat style hull, to carry a small boat (inflatable?), that might allow for amphibious assault on Crete.