Hitler inavdes the Soviet Union in 1940

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DerGiLLster
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Hitler inavdes the Soviet Union in 1940

#1

Post by DerGiLLster » 01 Jul 2016, 22:04

Found this while surfing the web yesterday, talks about Germany attacking the USSR in 1940 rather than 1941. I recommend you read the file before commenting, it's short around 80 pages, so you should be done with it in a half hour.

http://digitalcommons.apus.edu/cgi/view ... ext=theses

Now, as in every alternate history story, there will be holes to poke and I very welcome it. I don't see any in here, but if there are, than it provides greater opportunity for me to be informed and learn.

Why I believe the idea sounds feasible.

-the year between the defeat of France and the invasion of the Soviet union alarmed Stalin and gave him to work up the industry, the file states that in July 1940, Russia had seen Hitler as the biggest threat to him in Europe.

-In the aftermath if the Winter War against the Finns, Stalin saw how incompetent the Red Army was, and how his purges had hurt them. From March of 1940 to June 1941, they had 15 months to buildup their forces, invading Russia instead of France in May 1940 would not be enough time to prepare as they were still recovering from the Winter War

-In World War 1 the Germans were able to provide decent offensives against France and Russia, in this alternate scenario, the Germans could build their own form of defenses such as the Maginot line against a possible invasion of France. It's unlikely that France would want to invade Germany had they put their own set of defenses

-Would France even intervene? Many French people had hoped not to go to war, during the Sitzkrieg, they had conducted no major offensive operations against Germany, even when Denmark and Norway fell, they had still sat in their defenses, also wouldn't the French see an attack on Russia by Germany as something of good coming out of it. Not to say they would like it, but France in 1940 had a much more shaky relationship with Russia than in 1914, due to the difference of ideologies(of course they disliked Germany's ideology as well, but some disliked Communism more than fascism).

-How could France and Britain prepare? They had no capable strategic bombers and if they did, would do little harm to German industry at all. British bombers were in few and during bombing raids on Germany they often missed their targte by many miles. I am making an educated guessing statement but, if Hitler had succeeded in defeating the Soviet Union in three to four months, they would be blessed with a huge amount of natural resources. I understand it would take around a year to finally be able to use the resources and then have the enslaved population do the armaments work, it's fair to believe that in the time Germany could defeat the Soviet Union in three to four months, when it was much unprepared and had less tanks and planes, then the war for france would take around a year and Hitler could then have control over Europe. The invasion of Britain might also happen with the use of the Soviet Union's resources as they can build more ships to challenge the Royal Navy.

I am looking for a fun, yet mature debate.

steevh
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Re: Hitler inavdes the Soviet Union in 1940

#2

Post by steevh » 09 Aug 2016, 14:33

I'm sure Hitler considered this, but pre-May 1940 he would have shared everyone else's estimation that the French posed quite a serious threat.
Clearly the French weren't prepared to invade in 1939 in support of the Poles as they weren't fully mobilized... but by May 1940 they had already been at war for a year.
Hitler's plan was always to take out France before turning his attention to Russia, which he saw as the main threat.

Having said that, it is interesting to speculate what might have happened with a 1940 version of Barbarossa. The Soviet military would have been even less competent than in 1941, and if Moscow and Leningrad fell within 2 months, its hard to imagine that the French would have fought their way across the Rhine by then.
But the Soviets would also be less inclined to sue for peace with an active invasion of Germany by the French underway.


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BDV
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Re: Hitler inavdes the Soviet Union in 1940

#3

Post by BDV » 09 Aug 2016, 15:04

Only after defeat of France can Germany physically attack Russia.

HOWEVER! the groundwork for this, in terms of egging on the Baltic Countries and Romania to resist Soviet shenanigans can start as soon as March or April 1940.

ALSO! that means to keep playing phony diplomatic slapfest over the Scandinavian Countries (kein Weserubung!). tit-4-tat. Brits break neutrality this way, Germans "force" a diplomatic concession that way.

now, if warplans be altered such that no invasion of Holland occurs (we need those troops for the attack on the Maginot Line, mein Fuhrer!); that would be the cherry on top.

Hindsight is 20/20, but I see no drawbacks to egging on the Baltics and Romanians ("only those who defend themselves are worth defending!"). What's the worst it can happen? Soviets losing a few hundred thousand soldiers and going through their artillery stocks while burning down the targets of their takeover and engaging in their lovely wartime antics (pillage, rape, chuch burning and the like).
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

Stiltzkin
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Re: Hitler inavdes the Soviet Union in 1940

#4

Post by Stiltzkin » 09 Aug 2016, 20:19

This may be relevant to the discussion in some way, I came across this line while reading an article in the Journal of Slavic Military Studies, Analysis of the Polish Bolshevik War 1919 to 1920:

"There are far too many factors to evaluate, but had Germany invaded the Soviet Union a year earlier—in 1940 instead of 1941—its chances of victory would likely have been greater. If other events, such as the Winter War, Khalkin-Gol and the Stalinist military purges, had they occurred on a similar timeline, the Soviet military would have been in worse shape in 1940 than 1941. In addition, Soviet industry increased at 30.5 percent between 1937 and 1940 (M. Harrison, ‘Soviet Industrial Production)"

The point is though, Germany never really defeats Russia in WW1 (granted it effectively defeats the Army in the western parts), the countries economy simply disintegrates.

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Cantankerous
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Re: Hitler inavdes the Soviet Union in 1940

#5

Post by Cantankerous » 24 Jan 2024, 00:19

If Hitler had invaded the USSR in late 1940, then the peoples of Central Asia and Azerbaijan might have declared independence from Moscow and he might have ended up diverting some resources from the Battle of the Atlantic which otherwise would have been used to fund development of the future Junkers Ju 290 and Messerschmitt Me 264, but the outcome would have been the same, with German troops suffering frostbite in the Russian winter and the Soviet armed forces' strength underestimated despite the effects of Stalin's purges on the country's military leadership. Also, Benito Mussolini would have invaded Greece, French colonies in North Africa, and Egypt with marine expeditionary forces on his own because he agreed with the Roman emperors that the Mediterranean Sea was the domain of the Italian nation, thereby saving Hitler the trouble of ending the British naval presence in the Mediterranean in the event of the Luftwaffe losing the Battle of Britain.

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Terry Duncan
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Re: Hitler inavdes the Soviet Union in 1940

#6

Post by Terry Duncan » 26 Jan 2024, 08:30

Thread necromancy, topic locked.

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