Romania joins central powers

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stg 44
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Romania joins central powers

#1

Post by stg 44 » 20 Sep 2006, 23:09

What if the romanians were convinced to join the central powers in 1916? This would happen after the defeat of serbia, the cancelling of the dardandelles offensive, and the massive defeats suffered by the russians after gorlice-tarnow. Hindenburg-Ludendorff convince the Kaiser that Romania would be an important ally with their food and oil resources and that the extra 20 divisions that they had to offer would help push Russia over the edge. Falkenhayn is furious and threatens to resign after his western offensive is cancelled a second time due to the meddling of the dynamic duo and goes through with it. HL are the supreme commanders of Germany in early 1916 and decide to concentrate of Russia while defending in the west. Romania comes in after the austrians and their german allies succeed in battering the russians some more and begin to advance into the ukraine.

At this point russia is royally screwed. The ukrainians begin to revolt by mid 1916 and the central powers are more than happy to supply this movement with arms to give the russians another headache. In addition the austro-german armies continue to give battle all along the front. The russian armies are terribly mismanaged by the tzar and soon, the front starts to desinigrate. The russians are sick of being killed for the royals and decide to leave for home in increasing numbers. However, the central powers cannot take advantage because the italians and w.allies launch massive offensives to take the pressure off of the russians. As large numbers of troops have been sent east in this TL, the western front buckles hard. However, it is able to reform tens of miles east. This gives the western allies heart as it shows their doctrine is working. However, renewed offensives bog down as before as german reenforcements from russia start to pop up. Russia in the meantime topples the tzar and Kerensky takes over. His efforts to continue the war are thwarted by a war-weary people and the Duma comes to the negotiating table. Ukraine and poland gain independance and the baltic provinces fall into the german sphere. Serbia is reduced in size and gains a pro-austrian royal family. The germans and austrians maintain garrisons in the east to consolidate their new gains and help themselves to the ukrainian harvests. In this TL there is no russian civil war as the communists are not introduced into the mix. The new tzar is nicolas's uncle who sets about rebuilding his country.

Soon the austrians and german troops conduct a massive attack on italy much like OTL capretto. Italy nearly leaves the war, but is able to reform a line similar to OTL. However, this time by 1917 the germans are ready to take the fight to the allies in france and a series of offensives regains much of the ground lost in the 1916 offensives. Eventually the war bogs down again as the germans realize that they cannot exploit their success in the attack faster than a new defensive line can be thrown up. The Allies realize that the war just got a lot harder and go on the defensive. Soon 1917 is marked by its quite build up by both sides who try to come up with ways to break the other's lines. The germans don't have to worry about the blockade nearly as much as resources are pouring in from the east. However, as both sides give it another go in late 1917, much slaughter occurs that shakes the moral of all sides. The Italians try another offensive that bogs down once more and finally drops out of the war. The austrians are on their last legs and use the peace to consolidate their gains and manage the new puppet states in east. HL realize that the don't have the strength to to break through in france and make peace overtures. The allies give it one more try before finally coming to the peace table. End result-western border remains the same, germany loses all colonies, but eastern gains are recognized. A-L is retained and the french lose all claims. The french government topples and a new government is formed.

Any thoughts? Too ridiculous or is it plausable?

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#2

Post by Armanlu » 20 Sep 2006, 23:57

Romania joining them would have created a great strategical advantage to the Central Powers making the Balkans and the whole of SE Europe part of the Central Powers. The Bulgarians would be free to garison Serbia and present a serious threat to the Greeks if they would have joined (which under such circumstances is HIGHLY unlikely). Also many badly needed AH and German divisions (and Turkish if the Balkans are completely secured) would be used (as you said) against Russia or Italy. With Russia out of the war and Italy repulsed and partly defeated (earlier than in OTL), the Central Powers might have had a much better chance to achieve victory in the West through a large offensive (similar to that of 1918, only 1 year earlier which means somewhat stronger forces and with minimal or without US assistance for the Entente).
IMO this small country might have tipped the balance in favour of the Central Powers... considering victory was a close call for the Entente.
Then again i doubt that Romania had any real reasons for joining the Central Powers since it considered Transylvania a very important national goal and Bulgaria a hostile country, while having good pre-war relations with Serbia and France to some extent. Basarabia might have been a tempting reason to fight alongside AH but the prizes were much greater in the West (Transylvania, Bukovina, Banat etc).
PS: i doubt if that with Russia defeated and Italy partly defeated and with a stalemate on the Western front, that the German colonies would be lost since the remaining Entente states did not have much to bargain.....
Last edited by Armanlu on 21 Sep 2006, 13:36, edited 2 times in total.


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Re: Romania joins central powers

#3

Post by Animal » 21 Sep 2006, 00:26

It's also quite likely that in late 1917, the Western Allies would decide to wait until for substantial American units to arrive in France before mounting any further offensives, which would not have been until the Spring of 1918.

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Tim Smith
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#4

Post by Tim Smith » 21 Sep 2006, 11:43

My view is that Germany can't bring Rumania into the Central Powers unless the Austro-Hungarian Emperor (Franz Josef) is so desperate that he is prepared to give Transylvania to Rumania in exchange for Rumanian help against Russia. The Hungarians would be extremely unhappy about such a drastic solution if they got wind of it, and their loyalty to the Austrian monarchy would be severely shaken. If the word got out, morale in the A-H army would plummet as the Hungarian troops became disaffected.

There might even be a risk of a pro-Allied Hungarian resistance movement being created - many Hungarians might prefer to see the empire split and have an independent Hungary under Russian protection, rather than lose Transylvania.

The Bulgarians wouldn't be happy either, and would probably seek to extricate themselves from the war through secret negotiations with the Allies.

With Rumania on their side, I think the Central Powers might defeat Russia and possibly even come to a reasonable negotiated peace with the Western Allies - but the price would be the rapid and inevitable collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and possibly another Balkan War in 1918-1920 as the various little nations squabbled over territorial borders.

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#5

Post by Armanlu » 21 Sep 2006, 13:50

Tim Smith wrote:My view is that Germany can't bring Rumania into the Central Powers unless the Austro-Hungarian Emperor (Franz Josef) is so desperate that he is prepared to give Transylvania to Rumania in exchange for Rumanian help against Russia. The Hungarians would be extremely unhappy about such a drastic solution if they got wind of it, and their loyalty to the Austrian monarchy would be severely shaken. If the word got out, morale in the A-H army would plummet as the Hungarian troops became disaffected.

There might even be a risk of a pro-Allied Hungarian resistance movement being created - many Hungarians might prefer to see the empire split and have an independent Hungary under Russian protection, rather than lose Transylvania.

The Bulgarians wouldn't be happy either, and would probably seek to extricate themselves from the war through secret negotiations with the Allies.

With Rumania on their side, I think the Central Powers might defeat Russia and possibly even come to a reasonable negotiated peace with the Western Allies - but the price would be the rapid and inevitable collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and possibly another Balkan War in 1918-1920 as the various little nations squabbled over territorial borders.
Exactly! i described only the Romanian point of view but looking from the perspective of AH or Bulgaria the entry of Romania on their side would not have been welcome since war was almost inevitable between Romania and AH (Transylvanian issue and more) and Bulgaria wanted desperetely to get Southern Dobrogea back. Concessions would have to be made by both countries, completely unacceptable concessions from the Hungarian nationalistic point of view, if Romania were to be persuaded to join.
If the Central Powers won the war, the likelyhood of Romania ever uniting with the millions of Romanians in AH territories would be doubtful.
These reasons make this whatif very unlikely...
:) Cheers!

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#6

Post by Christian W. » 21 Sep 2006, 14:43

inevitable collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire
I beg to differ. I don't think that collapse of Austro-Hungary was inevitable.

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#7

Post by Tim Smith » 21 Sep 2006, 17:46

Christian W. wrote:
inevitable collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire
I beg to differ. I don't think that collapse of Austro-Hungary was inevitable.
I think that it would be if the Austrians gave Transylvania to the Rumanians.

That's like England giving all the Scottish islands and (associated fishing rights) to Norway, because they were once occupied by the Vikings, in order to get Norway to fight Germany in WWI. Think the Scots would want to stay in the United Kingdom after that?

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#8

Post by glenn239 » 21 Sep 2006, 18:46

Didn't the Central Powers simply take from Rumania much more than they ever could have bought, borrowed, or exchanged? If so, then wouldn't Rumania as an ally be less beneficial then simply blitzing them and carting off with everything that wasn't tied down?

Re: A/H "inevitable" collapse. Of course the Austrian collapse was inevitable. For if it weren't so then the west's policies towards Austria-Hungary (and the subsequent mess that became of Eastern Europe under Nazi and Communist rule) would look both stupid and moronically counterproductive...and we can't have that, now can we?

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#9

Post by Armanlu » 21 Sep 2006, 19:02

glenn239 wrote:Didn't the Central Powers simply take from Rumania much more than they ever could have bought, borrowed, or exchanged? If so, then wouldn't Rumania as an ally be less beneficial then simply blitzing them and carting off with everything that wasn't tied down?
Only half of Romania was occupied during the war; the king, the government and the remainder of the army retreated to Moldova so they did not take everything by a long shot (the treaty asked for some sort of "tribute" in grain and oil iirc which would have been payed in 100 years and not right away); also they suffered heavy casualties and much badly needed time to defeat it.
The first Romanian entry in the war brought to Bulgaria and AH a new and sudden threat which was temporarily neutralised later after many AH, Bulgarian and some German divisions were diverted from other theathers during a period of badly needed reinforcements (after the Brusilov offensive and it's consequences).
And mind you Romania wasn't "blitzed". It took hard fighting through the Carpathians to defeat it temporarily.

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#10

Post by stg 44 » 21 Sep 2006, 22:13

Well, in this scenario I would think that romania would want to gain something from the war if it looked like the central powers were winning. The forces used at verdun are instead used to fight with the austrians directly to the north of the romanians. The continued loses of the russian would make it look like the central powers were going to defeat russia, so if offered bessarbia, one would think that the romanians would want to gain some territory and money from bribes and trade. But no one says that they would be rational.

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#11

Post by dragos03 » 21 Sep 2006, 23:50

I think that an alliance with the Central Powers was so unpopular in Romania that it is almost impossible to happen. Even if the German-born Romanian king and the government decide to side with the CPs, most of the Romanians would be outraged and a coup will soon follow. In any case, the morale of the Romanian army would be severely affected.

Otherwise, if somehow Romania does join the CPs, i think Russia would crumble soon, especially if they were already badly hit by a strong German-Austrian offensive, and the Germans would have a reasonable chance of winning the war. However, Austria-Hungary would still collapse sooner or later.

The only chance for Romania to join Germany and AH would be if AH makes significant territorial concessions and promises to grant more rights to the rest of the Romanians living there. Another possibility would be if the Germans somehow find out about the secret ageement between Russia and the other Entente countries, through which Russia was promised Constantinopole after the war, and reveal it to Romanian politicians, who would see it as a major threat to the country's independence.

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#12

Post by glenn239 » 22 Sep 2006, 23:00

The first Romanian entry in the war brought to Bulgaria and AH a new and sudden threat which was temporarily neutralised later after many AH, Bulgarian and some German divisions were diverted from other theathers during a period of badly needed reinforcements (after the Brusilov offensive and it's consequences.
The Brusilov offensive’s major result was the annihilation of the Russian army as an offensively-capable fighting force.

I seem to recall reading that massive amounts of material were shipped out of Rumania by the occupying powers. Something to the effect of extending the CP war effort by 6 months or a year.

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#13

Post by dragos03 » 22 Sep 2006, 23:33

The Central Powers indeed took a lot of agricultural products from Romania but it's an exageration to think that the agricultural output of one Romanian province (Wallachia) was enough to feed Germany and A-H for six months or one year.

In any case, a quick fall of Russia caused by a Romanian intervention against it would have secured much more resources for the Central Powers, mainly from the Ukraine. Not to mention that Romania would have traded all its surplus products to the CPs, especially the oil, which historically the Germans failed to get because the fields were destroyed by the retreating Romanian army.

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#14

Post by Armanlu » 23 Sep 2006, 13:10

glenn239 wrote: The Brusilov offensive’s major result was the annihilation of the Russian army as an offensively-capable fighting force.
No...... the Brusilov offensive's immediate effect was the annihilation of over 1 million AH troops (dead,wounded,prisoners) and a considerable number of German troops. It basically destroyed Austria-Hungary as a military great power. The anihiliation of the Russian army happened many months later due to civil unrest and discontent among the troops. It was an effect of war in general... not of the Brusilov offensive ALONE, which under any circumstance, was military success.
And as dragos03 said, the ability to defeat Russia earlier would have greatly overcompensated the resources taken from Romania with those from the Ukraine. Not considering the Romanian help given if they were allies (check the huge numbers of tons of grain and oil sent to Germany in ww2 when Romania was an ally).
You're probably thinking of the Kerensky offensive. In this offensive, which happened 1 year later, the Russian army mutinied and forced Russia to leave the war.

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#15

Post by glenn239 » 23 Sep 2006, 16:34

It basically destroyed Austria-Hungary as a military great power.
Destroying AH as a Great Power? Doesn’t sound hard to do. But last time I checked, the Italians didn’t take Vienna or Trieste in 1916 or 1917. Funny – there were no German troops on the Italian Front in 1916, so who stopped them since the Germans weren’t there and the Austro-Hungarian army had been “destroyed”?
No...... the Brusilov offensive's immediate effect was the annihilation of over 1 million AH troops (dead,wounded,prisoners) and a considerable number of German troops.

For 1.5 million Russians.

No doubt if the Brusilov offensive didn’t smash the Russian army’s offensive capabilities, we can point to a series of subsequent Russian offensive successes, especially since the Austrian Empire was “destroyed” as a power but still responsible for large sections of the front line. Perhaps the Brusilov offensive’s major accomplishment was to squander Russia’s best troops in exchange for CP troop losses from formations that were primarily not German. Hence by the end of the affair the CP was still perfectly capable of conducting large scale offensives, and the Russians were finished, as the Rumanians discovered.
And as dragos03 said, the ability to defeat Russia earlier would have greatly overcompensated the resources taken from Romania with those from the Ukraine.
Right, but Rumania joining the CP in 1916 doesn’t automatically translate into an earlier Russian defeat, especially if it does so before Russia wrecks her army in the Brusilov Offensive. And the CP might not have had goods to trade for the resources that Rumania wouldn’t want to sell at a reasonable price.

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