Erie/Ireland invaded by Germany 1940

[PF]

Erie/Ireland invaded by Germany after Great Britian has fallen:
1) Would Dev Valera have continued to act as a Leader under occupation?
2) Would "Neutralty" have still been inforced? {Such as describing a man with a Irish surname lost on HMS Hood as death due to a boating accident!!}
3) Would the Irish Army under leaders like the "Boy Colonel" Michael Joe Costello could have had to wage a guerrilla battle against the Germans? How long would they have lasted?
4) Would Irish-Americans have volunteered to help defend Erie from the Germans?

[phylo_roadking]

PF, there is no brief answer to your questions as a What-If....best thing would be to get hold of Robert Fisk's "In Time Of War"

But I'll give brief answers to your question...but they'll just lead to more.

1) Would Dev Valera have continued to act as a Leader under occupation?

I take it you mean like a Petain or a Leopold of Belgium. Not a chance. This was a man who had been at the GPO (in a minor role) in 1916, was imprisoned by the British, when released became head of an illegal "parallel" government, didn't agree with the eventual treaty with Britain and organised an attempted armed revolt against the Pro-Treaty side of his OWN government, and lived "in the bush" for four years during the Civil War. DeValera would not in ANY way have cooperated with ANY invader; he had firm plans to withdraw from Dublin to wherever was safest, and continue broadcasting to the nation as long as possibnle to rally support. Ideally he would have preferred to fight the British but if the Germans would have invaded he would have fought them. One of the options he voiced was that IF the germans invaded and the british crossed the border to met them....he would tell the forces at his disposal to fight BOTH!!!

2) Would "Neutralty" have still been inforced? {Such as describing a man with a Irish surname lost on HMS Hood as death due to a boating accident!!}

For all the time Ireland would have continued to exist as an independent neutral nation - reckoned at 7-8 days without British assistance - of course it would not have remained in place. Norway, belgium, Holland etc. hadn't remained neutral, they fought the invader. They would have been at war with Germany SEPARATELY than Britain, however.

3) Would the Irish Army under leaders like the "Boy Colonel" Michael Joe Costello could have had to wage a guerrilla battle against the Germans? How long would they have lasted?

7-8 days. There was only a core of approx 8500 Regulars, though this was expanded as finances etc. permitted. There WAS a Home Guard, and a lower-level Local Security Force - but the latter was only a civilian-dressed petrolbomb-throwing shotgun-armed (if they owned them!) organisation, formed to quiet the clamour that the anti-governmental pro-IRA sector of the population was being kept away from drilling and weapons which it was!!!

At a guess, far too much damage would have been done to the Regulars in contact with the Germans for any practical size of guerilla force to simply remain to go underground....

And you're forgetting one MAJOR consideration - there ALREADY was a guerilla force in Ireland....and IT would be fighting FOR the Germans against the Irish Army...

4) Would Irish-Americans have volunteered to help defend Erie from the Germans?

I dunno - would they have defended Lake Erie???

In reality - if the British didn't intervene - with or without Irish Governmental invitation or permission - Eire couldn't survive long enough for any foreign volunteers to get there or be organised/trained/equiped. If the British DID intervene - then it would be a full theatre of the war against Germany, and various US laws would preclude US citizens as volunteers travelling to take part, except perhaps as individual citizens volunteering to serve in the BRITISH armed forces.

[Tim Smith]

There is only one thing I have to say about this topic.

The Germans would be very, very, VERY sorry indeed before long!

Messing with the Irish is like messing with the Finns - they're just more trouble than they're worth!

[phylo_roadking]

Tim - I wouldn't be too sure. Going by the notable successes DeValera had against the IRA just before and in the first two years of the war - basically almost paralysing the rump of the organisation not caught up in his roundups - the IRA were as riven by informers etc. as ever. THIS would then be bound up with HOW and how soon the Irish become disenchanted with German rule They'd have to make ONE really HUGE mistake, turn the WHOLE population against them at one time....or else the IRA would split up badly between those still supporting the invaders as they originally had, and those moving gradually into full-blown Resistance. In a scenario like that you have scope for really effective action against them before the problem gets out of hand.

Also - look at the anti-partisan techniques used in the rest of Europe....and compare them with the LAST time in living memory the Irish fought a modern army. Compared to the Germans, the British in 1918-21 fought with one hand tied behind their backs in the full view of the press. The Irish would face an occupier using a scale of tactics they hadn't seen since the 17th and 18th centuries...

[PF]

Sorry- I ment Eire

[phylo_roadking]

One thing I didn't pick up on before

after Great Britian has fallen:

This was never intended by the Germans; it was first formulated as a large raid as a diversion for Sealion, then as a standalone operation until the Fall Grun plans stopped being updated at the end of 1941. Then there was the IRA- planned and unrealistic "Plan Kathleen" they managed to get to the Germans early in 1940, but this "domestic" plan was eventually played down and abandoned by the Abwehr.

In the VERY worst case that Britain DID fall to Sealion without any further part being played by or in Eire...Eire as a nation could not stand alone. There was almost NO way that Ireland's Defence Forces - without any major resupply for its majority-British supplied arms, let alone its lack of manpower and heavy weapons - could both guard against German invasion overland from Nothern Ireland (if the UK was beaten) AND from invasion from sea. The butter was too thin to spread around ALL possible options.

Also - ALL Eire's fuel stocks except harvested peat came from Great Britain, the vast majority of canned goods, the markets for all its agricultural produce,and something like 98% of manufactured goods of all sorts came from England. If britain had fallen, ireland was at the mercy of the worst kind of blackmail.

In THIS ONE scenario, the Irish Army could make SOME attempt to go underground....but because of the way DeValera had treated the IRA at the end of the Civil War and after becoming Taoiseach - any resistance organisation would be hunted down....BY the IRA. Working again with the Germans. THIS is the worst possible scenario for fighting partisans - by another underground organisation, already organic in the community and aware of all the same hideouts, safehouses, sources of covert support etc.

[von Rundstedt]

One interesting carrot for the Irish and that could be the eviction of protestant Irish and British from Northern Ireland and under treaty Northern Ireland would be returned to the Eire Republic, also that the Eire Republic would gain control of those ship building facilities in Belfast, the Eire Republic could earn monies from the Germans in as so far as building warships for the Kriegsmarine.

Irish Americans and German Americans could see this as finally driving the nail into the blight that was British occupied Northern Ireland and a fully united Catholic Eire Republic.

[phylo_roadking]

Interesting theories - unfortunately not backed up by much fact, even for a What-if.

Even the Germans would be aware that trying to forcibly integrate the majority Protestant North into the majority-Catholic South would be asking for trouble. They would be creating a WORSE state of internecine warfare in Ireland than in, say, Yugoslavia. SOMEWHERE in the North there were arms for 125,000 men secreted as of Spring 1914 in Protestant hands...

the Eire Republic would gain control of those ship building facilities in Belfast

...facilities that would almost certainly be left in ruins so as to not fall into German/Axis hands. The wartime facilites at Harland & Wolff were very vulnerable to deliberate destruction, there were only two dry docks at the time requiring gates & pumphouses destroyed to render them unuseable for some years. Look at St. Nazaire - the Germans NEVER repaired the damge caused there, just banked up sand across the front of the Normandie dock.

the blight that was British occupied Northern Ireland and a fully united Catholic Eire Republic.

Northern Ireland under the Stormont government wasn't British-Occupied, it was a semi-independent nation with far closer to dominion status than the Republic of Ireland, and with far more heavy industry was much closer to self-reliance than Eire. it could - and DID - very often take different paths to the London government of the day, had to be consulted on major political issues like the Dominion leaders, and during the war made several decisions at odds with London, such as NOT bringing in conscription, unlike Australia and Canada. Also, remember please that the Republic of ireland was NOT a "Catholic" republic - freedom of religious worship and tolerance was GUARANTEED for all under the constitution of the new state; in fact, the Protestant churches in the Irish Republic were actively sponsored by the Irish government to ensure this. Ever been to Ireland? Every town has education and civic centres, outward-bound centres, youth facilites etc. ....in old churches; old disestablished Protestant churches that still exist to the present day BECAUSE of the support given by the govenment and laws of the Irish Republic until their protestant congreagtions simply faded with age. There are still MANY active and healthy Protestant congreagations in the South, and each year during the "marching season" the largest set of Protestant parades outside Belfast...are actually IN the Republic of Ireland, at Dunfanaghy in Donegal!!!

The more likely situation - if any - would be the North governed like the Occupied Zone of France 1940-44, with the South AT BEST being "independent" but severely under the thumb like Vichy France.

[LWD]

...

2) Would "Neutralty" have still been inforced? {Such as describing a man with a Irish surname lost on HMS Hood as death due to a boating accident!!}

For all the time Ireland would have continued to exist as an independent neutral nation - reckoned at 7-8 days without British assistance - ...

I think it would have lasted quite a bit longer. Even without active "assistence" the British would have found it very conveniant to sink any German supply ships and shoot down any tranport planes that tried to make it to Ireland. Without supplies the Germans aren't going anywhere fast and with any resistance at all they are going to be in real trouble. If the Irish government is too hostile to direct British assistence they don't have to send troops. Just cut off the Germans and perhaps supply some arms and munitions. If the Germans are going to have a serious problem launching let alone winning with Sea Lion how much worse is this going to be? Sure there's not as much ground opposition at least if the Britts don't join in but the Germans aren't going to get a free pass to sail or fly around Great Britain to get to Ireland.

...

4) Would Irish-Americans have volunteered to help defend Erie from the Germans?

I dunno - would they have defended Lake Erie???

In reality - if the British didn't intervene - with or without Irish Governmental invitation or permission - Eire couldn't survive long enough for any foreign volunteers to get there or be organised/trained/equiped. If the British DID intervene - then it would be a full theatre of the war against Germany, and various US laws would preclude US citizens as volunteers travelling to take part, except perhaps as individual citizens volunteering to serve in the BRITISH armed forces.

Some Irish Americans inlcuding some very influential ones such as the Kennedys were still very anti British prior to the US entery in the war. A German attack on Ireland would likely result in a considerable shift in the pro war sentiment in the US. I agree that by the time any significant numbers of US volenteers could get to Ireland it would likely be over but this would likely bring the US into the war months earlier perhaps right after the start of Barbarossa if the Germans still went ahead with that.

[phylo_roadking]

I think it would have lasted quite a bit longer.

Seven to eight days for open Regular Irish Army resistance was reckoned by the British, the Irish reckoned on two full weeks...basically as long as it would actually take to sweep across the island in the face of resistance LOL.

If the Irish government is too hostile to direct British assistence they don't have to send troops. Just cut off the Germans and perhaps supply some arms and munitions.

Once the war started, the UK WAS Ireland's only source of arms anyway IIRC. Various penny packets e.g. a few dozen Madsen MGs, were purchased before the war, but not after.

The whole point of Fall Grun as originally envisioned was - as a major raid and all-over spoiler for Sealion. The whole idea was that it was a "raid in strength" and left pretty much to its own devices. And Raeder's support was exactly as lukewarm as it was for Sealion ;

"To a defending force, cut off and left to its own devices, the topography of the country does not afford us much protection.. without supplies and reinforcements they would soon feel the increasing pressure of British expeditionary force brought over under the protection of British naval power; sooner or later our own troops would face a situation similar to Namsos or Dunkirk."

(A. Martienssen "Hitler and his Admirals (Secker & Warburg) London 1948 Appendix II)

It had objectives only really relevent to Sealion;

A/to draw off British Army troops stationed in Northern Ireland who might otherwise be sent to aid the defense of Britain,
B/deny Ireland as a staging point/refuge to British troops,
C/ provide a staging post to Luftwaffe forces in subduing northern Britain

...and only IF Sealion was complete would Fall Grun be carried through to completion. NO plans for the imposition of government in Ireland, or 'rounding up of dissidents' were included as part of Grun as they were bundled with Sealion.

To go to Wiki for the original size/spec of the plan;

The jumping off point for Green was to be the French ports of Lorient, St. Nazaire, and Nantes with an initial force of 3,900 troops. The objective was to be an eighty-five mile stretch of the southern coast of Ireland between Wexford and Dungarvan. Having captured the ports there, German units were expected to fight their way up to thirty miles inland to establish a beach-head running from Gorey on the Wexford-Dublin road across the 2,610 feet height of Mount Leinster above Borris in County Carlow, through Thomastown in County Kilkenny, to Clonmel in County Tipperary.

The first landings were to include Artillery and commando squadrons and a motorized infantry battalion. A bridge building battalion was also to be landed along with three anti-aircraft companies and several 'raiding patrols'- to probe Irish Army defenses. Reserves from the German 61st, 72nd, and 290th Divisions were to take up occupation duties in the Gorey-Dungarven bridgehead once it had been established. The overall details for the plan appear to be sketchy from this point onwards, and mostly would have depended on the success or failure of Operation Sealion in Britain.

Beach-heads considered in Green included the Waterford-Wexford sector (favoured), the estuary of the River Shannon near Limerick, Galway Bay, Donegal Bay with Killala, Ballina and Sligo, Lough Foyle with Derry, the 'Bay of Belfast' (Belfast Lough), and Cobh in Cork.

The landings were to be effected by sea craft available in occupied France at the time, unfortunately there were few in existence and Operation Sealion was to have priority- further reasons why Raeder was not happy with Green. Green was expected to utilise over 50,000 German troops and Sealion was expected to use 160,000 but for Green the Germans only found two steamships available around the north-western ports of France- the French "Versailles" and the German "Eule" together with three small coasters: "Mebillo", "Clio" and "Franzine".

It is also worth pointing out that to get to Ireland the departing ships would have had to circumnavigate the British coastline at Cornwall. Every vessel taking part in Green was to carry anti-aircraft weaponry indicating that the planners expected the Royal Air Force (RAF) to intercept them, although air cover from the Luftwaffe's West of France Air Command was to be provided as part of Sealion

In other words. - a first securing of the beachheads with the 3.900 troops followed by expansion inland...while the remaining 46,000 troops were ferried in. In other words - well over SIX times the size of the Irish regular army. The plan was LATER extended to include the airlifting of some 8000 airborne troops to Ireland for a number of Norway-style lake landings by seaplane, and two spoiling drops inside Northern ireland - near Londonderry and behind White Mountain in County Antrim, thus threatening RAF Aldergrove...once the amended Sealion plans had no first-line plan for using the FJ, relegating them to the general reserve for Sealion.

If the Irish government is too hostile to direct British assistence they don't have to send troops. Just cut off the Germans and perhaps supply some arms and munitions

I'm afraid this option was NEVER on the cards The British planned to advance to meet the Germans i.e. into Irish territory - WITH OR WITHOUT irish permission and invitation!There was a small degree of mutual defence planning with the Irish Army - alledgedly- but there is very little proof of this, although the idea was discussed and accepted. The reason for the paucity of information on this is simple - DeValera's strict adherance IN PUBLIC to ireland's Neutrality. The "Air Corridor" from Lough Erne to the sea for RAF flyingboats based there in Northern Ireland was bad enough, but any apparent Irish cooperation militarily with Britain on the defence of her sovereign territory would be a blatant breach of Neutrality.

What the British DID do was rapidly develop "Plan W" - building up the 53rd Division in Northern Ireland, and developing plans for TWO thrustis into the Republic to meet the Germans - one, armour-heavy, across the border in South Armagh, and the other straight to Dublin across the border at Newry and following the line of the main railway link between the two countries. The 61st Division in the North-west would cross the border at Bridgend beside Londonderry and cut off the Inishowen Peninsula in Donegal...incidently giving Britain the use of the Treaty port of Lough Swilly.

The reason for the thrust directly South along the railway was simple;

Elaborate plans were made in Belfast to supply the BEF with guns, ammunition, petrol, and medical equipment by rail. The British marshalling yards at Balmoral, south of Belfast, were extended to take long ammunition and fuel trains which were loaded and ready on new sidings. In addition three ambulance trains were equipped and positioned around Belfast and an ambulance railhead established to take the wounded returning from the south of Ireland. British soldiers stripped the sides from dozens of coal trucks transforming them into flat cars for armoured vehicles and tanks that would be sent southwards. Once the 53rd Division was committed in Éire, the British military authorities planned to run thirty-eight supply trains on the two railway lines to Dublin every day — thirty down the main line through Drogheda (if the viaduct over the Boyne river remained undamaged), and the remainder along the track which cut through County Cavan. The Port of Belfast was estimated to have needed to handle 10,000 tons of stores a week and could receive up to 5000 troops every day for the battle-front

Driving South to secure Dublin would do something in addition to simply advancing on the beachheads; it would give the British control of two of the South's three paved airstrips at that time, at Baldonnel - HQ of the Irish Air Corps of the Defence Forces - and Gormanstown (now Dublin Airport) and deny them to the Germans; three hurricane squadrons were slated to fly to and operate out of Baldonnel as soon as it was secured.

They also did have plans to secure the seas around Ireland anyway, both to prevent reinforcement AND to secure any loose shipping the Germans could commandeer and use, given how short they were coming up in shipping for the operation because of Sealion;

The Royal Navy was to issue instructions that all British and foreign ships from Irish ports. Vessels in Londonderry were to head for the Clyde and boats in Belfast were to head for Holyhead and Liverpool. As many ships as possible would be cleared from Irish ports and taken to the Clyde, Holyhead and Fishguard. Royal Navy officers in Dublin were to direct this exodus and the taking on of refugees was not to be encouraged. British submarines were to patrol off Cork and the Shannon in readiness for an invasion, and should one occur the Royal Navy was to declare a "sink on sight" zone in the western approaches and off the south and west coasts of Ireland.

I'm afraid the British were NOT intending to sit back on this Would you???

[PeterOT]

Phylo,

The plan for invading Ireland as outlined seems an even more surefire way to kill a bunch of German troops than Sealion. At least that would have had some airciver & such naval screening as was possible.

Even if the entire German first wave got ashore in Eire the rest would be caught & sunk by air or sea forces. Hell, with the KM either earmarked for Sealion or sunk in the process, the convoys could be dealt with using a couple of light cruisers, some destroyers & the coastal fleet (Torpedo boats, corvettes, minesweepers, converted tugs, sloops etc.). I can see why Raeder was not keen.

[phylo_roadking]

If the first wave and enough supplies could have been brought ashore, it would have been enough to trigger the british reaction - and THUS drawing into combat - or at least into Ireland - quite useful force that otherwise SHOULD have been shipped ASAP to the mainland. It would have been possible for it to survive locally for at least a couple of weeks, even if it received NO further support at all. And surviving and being a heaache is exactly what's needed to fulfil it's [i[initial[/i[] use to the overall Sealion op.

Don't forget - in NONE of this have I ever mentioned the actual ability of the Irish Army to combat the Germans. I don't want to go into that here - but it's woreful.

a couple of light cruisers, some destroyers & the coastal fleet (Torpedo boats, corvettes, minesweepers, converted tugs, sloops etc.)

No. At a pinch the light cruisers, would be available - but not the small ships and the coastal fleet, these are exactly the ships slated for the Channel. The British wouldn't have been able to spread the buttter THAT thin Raeder was actually more worried about AIR attack and interdiction of the subsequent reinforcements....which would of course be exactly the problem if the RAF could start operating from far South in the Republic.

I'll say up front - the WHOLE German plan for Ireland, when you look at it in detail...is one of the reasons it was for so long viewed as mere disinformation When you look at it you really DO have to wonder if THIS was dreamed up by the same people that had taken Holland, Belgium and France in ten weeks LMAO It's severely amateurish, and I agree it would have probably resulted in heavy losses...almost incidental to the damage it would do to ireland and the Irish Defence Forces, and disrupt the WHOLE shape of Ireland again....for of course NONE of the plans made by EITHER side looked at the future AFTER their respective plans and counterplans. The British would be "occupying" Ireland AGAIN, and would have to STAY there to prevent the Germans trying again....which would in the short or long term generate the entirely predictable Irish reaction - grateful in the short term or not

But what I HAVE to say is - the British counter-Plan W is by FAR the more professional, and in it's fast thrusting armour-fronted twin thrusts, supplied on the move by rail....you're looking - without the name - at a BRITSH Blitzkrieg! Planned FAR earlier than any of the fast-moving thrusts in the Western Desert.

[phylo_roadking]

There's also a lot of interest in THIS thread;

http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=76197

...a lot of rubbish talked until I contributed on pages 5 and 6, but the thread therefore is a VERY good example of the huge number of misconceptions and urban (rural? ) myths STILL generated around this whole issue of Irish Neutrality. I posted the link to the whole thread rather than cut-and-paste everything I posted before.

[LWD]

I think it would have lasted quite a bit longer.

Seven to eight days for open Regular Irish Army resistance was reckoned by the British, the Irish reckoned on two full weeks...basically as long as it would actually take to sweep across the island in the face of resistance LOL.

But isn't a successful landing of the German force and at least their initial supplies the starting point of this "reconing"?

The only way I can see the Germans doing that is if the British help them. Which might actually be a good idea.....

[phylo_roadking]

Yes - and somewhere between 7 days-2 weeks is still a good conservative estimate LOL As I said, nowhere here has anyone discussed the absolutely woeful state of Irish defences or the Irish Army...not just size, but also arms, artillery, training, experience and armour.

A taster - they had ONE Vickers D medium tank of 1936, which broke down in 1937 and IIRC was never repaired; with its gun removed it was used as a static target for anti-tank practice. And two Landswerk L60 tanks - with no fighting spares, just engine spares. And THAT was it. They had a maximum of 16 medium armoured cars in the entire country, barring breakdowns, a mix of Landswerk and Leyland based copies of these. - which had better never have taken damage because exactly ONE man, a sergeant-fitter, knew how to weld armourplate, he'd had to be sent to the UK for a special training course when the Irish decided to build their own armoured cars Oh, and the Landswerks have better never taken battle damage - because the Leylands were constructed with their only spare weapons and Landswerk turrets!!! There were also apparently thirty light Ford and Rolls-Royce armoured cars - but these were almost worn out, the Rolls' being units left behind by the British twenty years earlier in 1921!!!

And that was the entire armoured might of the Irish nation until 1944...