June 1941 is most favourable date to attack Russia ?

[Kelvin]

Hi, Hitler launched his attack on Russia on 22nd June 1941. British military historian Liddell Hart said Hitler failure was caused by lack of motor vehicles especially tracked vehicles. In June 1941, German army possessed 600,000 vehicles and 625,000 horses plus Hungarian Carpathian army group 's 5800 motor vehicles and Italian expeditionary forces 's 7,550 motor vehicles. I don't have data on Finnish and Romanian forces. With that figures, German Heer only possessed 19 panzer and 14 motorized divisions for that war, it was unreasonable.
Hitler believed in panzer troop and motorization but Hitler , unlike British , did not commit resources to fully motorized his army. Did Hitler believe in motorization was vital in future war ? But if he delayed the war one more year, did he achived more in motorization and had more chances to win the war or his misconception in his own strength and miscalculation already doomed him to failure, anyone have ideas ?

[Dave Bender]

If Hitler delayed the war one more year, would he achive more in motorization?

It's not that simple. You need fuel for motor vehicles. From September 1939 onward Germany lost access to imported oil except what they could obtain from Romania and Russia.

Then we must consider what Britain, Russia and the USA will do. All 3 are hostile to German interests. These nations will not sit and wait for Germany to make the next move.

[Tim Smith]

Another year means Russia has a year of peace to strengthen and modernise their army, while Germany is weakened economically by having to fight Britain during that time.

If Germany had tried a 'Battle of Britain II' in summer 1941, she would have lost that one, too, because the German bombers would still be terribly vulnerable to British fighters. And conquests in North Africa - even if Rommel had taken Egypt and the Suez Canal - would not be sufficient to knock Britain out of the war completely. The fall of Singapore did not knock Britain out of the war, the fall of Egypt would not do so either. Britain can hold out indefinitely in the Home Islands as long as i) the U-boat menace doesn't become too bad, and ii) she has Lend-Lease supplies from America.

So 1941 was the best time to invade Russia.

[Dave Bender]

Another year means Russia has a year of peace to strengthen and modernise their army, while Germany is weakened economically by having to fight Britain during that time.

It appears to me that you are wrong.

GDP. (millions of 1990 USA dollars)
300,539. 1939 UK.
374,577. 1939 Germany

330,638. 1940 UK
377,284. 1940 Germany GDP growth = 1%

360,737. 1941 UK
401,174. 1941 Germany GDP growth = 6%

369,721. 1942 UK
406,582. 1942 Germany. GDP growth = 1%

377,807. 1943 UK
414,696. 1943 Germany. GDP growth = 2%

[phylo_roadking]

If Germany had tried a 'Battle of Britain II' in summer 1941, she would have lost that one, too, because the German bombers would still be terribly vulnerable to British fighters

Actually - this time it would be a much more catastrophic defeat; by Spring/Summer 1941 the British were well versed in dealing with the LW's blind bombing aids AND had a decent night fighter force and night interception capability, the two things that had been missing in October/November 1940 during the Blitz....

Meanwhile, relations with Russia would have continued to break down the way they did through late 9140, early 1941 OTL, and there would have been little or not POL flowing from Russian oil. And the LW would have been busy using up stockpiles fast AND loosing aircraft and trained crews...

And with no attack on Russia - all the LL materiel is available to be sent to the Middle East. Even if sent the long way round, without TIGER-style convoys being rammed through the Med, Britain's position in front of the Canal Zone on the defensive certainly becomes far stronger, as well as on the offensive. Meanwhile Commonwealth forces have taken Syria, the Iraqi revolt has failed...the Middle East is far more stable and Hitler-proof.

If Hitler is going to make ANY changes OTL to events in 1941, it's invade Cyprus, not Crete...THAT destabilises the Middle East.

[Dave Bender]

If the cream of the Luftwaffe is committed to the Medittranean they will dominate that region. Germany can seize Cyprus, Crete, Malta and Egypt without trouble. After that it gets difficult as logistical issues will prevent a Blitzkrieg into the Middle East.

[Lkefct]

The other thing to remember about motorizing the army, is that trucks wear out. In 1939, the German army was losing more trucks to wear and tear then they produced. Clearly that is not going to be the case once German production starts to increase, but the fact is that it is not just a gain, but they are losing some thousands of trucks just in pre-war wear and tear every quarter. Combat losses in Poland and France, while not severe make the situation somewhat worse. The massive influx of captured motor vehicles helps to a great deal, but many of these are old or civilian vehicles which are not very solid by military standards. So, the longer they wait and have their armies dispersed (to not arouse Soviet suspicions), the extra wear and tear is going to ruin a good # of vehicles. The extra combat in Africa (&Balkans). Waiting would help the German motorization, but not so much.

Also, if there is an extra year before the attack on Russia, would the Germans resist the temptation to rationalize the production of tanks, guns and AFV's in occupied territory. Germany did little to try and increase their smallish wartime production before the attack on Russia at a time when Panzer divisions where short of tanks (doubled the # of divisions, but had the same # of tanks) and the army could have used more material. If they are not concerned with the amount of stuff, they might be willing to fix some of their supply problems by settling on a more limited # of vehicles to produce, if they can stand the cost of changing the machine tools.

[phylo_roadking]

If the cream of the Luftwaffe is committed to the Medittranean they will dominate that region. Germany can seize Cyprus, Crete, Malta and Egypt without trouble.

Can't have it both ways. "Dominating" the Mediterranean with air power means no strategic bombing campaign against the UK (as attempted OTL in a stunted retarded way), and no second air supremacy campaign. And leaves "Airstrip One" totally intact and just off the European coast after December 7th, 1941...

Militarily - The Germans can't do BOTH Cyprus and Crete. Crete did as much damage to their Ju52 fleet as Norway and France did in 1940...as well as destroying the reputation of the FJ for carrying out major unsupported air assaults rather than limted-objective smaller ops. And Long range LW operations isn't going to loose Britain the Canal Zone; that requires a ground campaign. How many longrange LW raids on Egypt and the Canal Zone after the fall fo Syria, the end of the Iraqi revolt and the invasion of Crete?

[Dave Bender]

Can't have it both ways. "Dominating" the Mediterranean with air power means no strategic bombing campaign against the UK

I agree. The 1940 bombing campaign against Britain was a failure. So Germany will not repeat it. Instead they will seize the Medittranean region during 1941.

[Tim Smith]

Another year means Russia has a year of peace to strengthen and modernise their army, while Germany is weakened economically by having to fight Britain during that time.

It appears to me that you are wrong.

German GDP growth would be far better with no war ongoing.

[phylo_roadking]

Would be interesting to know if those "German" GDP figures are Germany itself or the Greater Reich as a whole...

[Kelvin]

If German military intelligence more accurately estimated the Russian strength. Hitler at least hesitate to launch a war against Russia. Given Russian strength, he needed over 300 divisions for the conquest, Hitler himself thought he cannot achieve that leval, he should give up. Please remember that the successful conquest of France and the low countries involved 136 divisions, so 141 divisions is enought for Barbarossa ? it's a joke !

[Lkefct]

The German formations in Russia did fairly well against the pre-war estimates of the Red Army. My understanding is that they estimated the size of the pre-war army rather accurately. Where they ultimately failed was in their estimates of how quickly the soviets could replace them. By the fall of 1941, the soviets had lost more men then they had under arms at the time of the invasion. All the while taking fairly light losses compared to those they inflicted. German formations where still at 65-80% effective strength. Even in the fall and winter, the majority of the losses are due to being stuck in the mud and exposure to the elements. That is not an intelligence failure, since the plan accounted for these things. The problem was Hitler's departures from the plan and not driving on Msocow when the going was good, not the pre-war planning or estimates.

[Dave Bender]

Would be interesting to know if those "German" GDP figures are Germany itself or the Greater Reich as a whole...

Germany only. There are seperate listings for Austria, Czechoslavakia, Poland, etc.
http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/

[Adam Carr]

[Hitler failure was caused by lack of motor vehicles especially tracked vehicles]

Hitler failure was caused by fighting a war simultaneously with the British Empire, the Soviet Union and the USA. He was bound to lose by sheer weight of numbers, money, resources and industrial output. The only way out of that box was to flip one of the three to his side. He did that in 1939 with the alliance with Stalin, then reversed himself by attacking the Soviet Union in 1941. But he still could have made Russia an ally of sorts, if he had been willing to enrol the occupied zones of the Soviet Union as German allies, instead of treating them as untermenschen. If the 2 million Soviet POWs who were killed off in 1941-42 had instead been recruited into a anti-communist army and turned against Stalin, Hitler could have won the war in the east and faced the western powers on near equal terms. But his racial ideology and dreams of a German empire in Russia didn't permit that. So he was ultimately defeated by his own ideology.