Von Schadewald wrote:Just how much more successful could the 1942 Indian Ocean Raid have been for the Japanese more than in OTL - absolute best plausible case scenario?
Could it have changed the course of the war?
And worst case scenario for the Japanese?
It could have have been very much more successful. Had Nagumo or one of his staff asked where Dorsetshire and Cornwall were going and if there might be other ships along their course, or if the aircraft shadowing the cruisers had reported enemy carrier based aircraft, Nagumo had time to locate and attack the Somerville's large carriers. Had the carriers been attacked and crippled, Nagumo might have remembered the criticism of not finishing off Pearl Harbor and continued attacking over the next few days until almost all of Somerville's fleet had been sunk.
That could have changed the course of the war. Just not the war being fought by the Japanese. It would have allowed a cruiser force such as Ozawa's to cut off supplies to India (and thus to China), oil to Australia from the Middle East, supplies to British forces in Egypt and supplies going to Russia via Iran (well at the time going to build the docks and road to Russia). You can thus suggest that Rommel might have taken Alexandria etc. Even if the change is not so dramatic, the RN is going to need to find at least one new aircraft carrier to defend the Indian Ocean and given the need to watch Turpitz, may not be able to carry out Operation Pedestal. However, none of that is going to help Japan at all in its war with America. In fact Nagumo will certainly lose some aircraft and be worse off for subsequent operations. The best possibility for the IJN is that Yamamoto will have to modify the plans for MO and Midway because the Kido Butai needs re-equipment.
The worst case scenario for the Japanese is that the British succeed in a night torpedo attack on the Kido Butai and the Japanese are the first to discover the problems of ruptured tanks of aviation fuel.