German focus on Russia in 1914.

[LWD]

... He should have took French colonies for Germany and taken the entire French colonial Empire and divided it between Germany, Italy, Spain and England. ...

Why? By that point in time someone taking an objective look at it would realize that colonies simply weren't worth it. Now if they had granted the colonies independence ...

[Baltasar]

That would very much depend on the colony in question. Also, if the goal is to weaken France (as Bismark argued in 1871), it might've been an idea to strengthen Italy, eg by giving them Sardinia and / or Tunesia / NW French Africa, even if they hadn't participated in the war. This would go well with Bismarks implemented alliance system between Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy.

Granting independence could give some people some ideas of their own. Austria was a multi ethnic country and even Germany did have a sizable Polish minority. Freeing other nations could lead to trouble at home.

[princeliberty10311517]

And France could take weak colonies back. The best case - is lure Italy and Spain into the late stages of the war.

The more bitterness between France and them the better. And give them as much territory as possible. Set up permanent deep opposition of Italy and France. Make Italy the power that is displacing France.

The goal is for Italy to end up being stronger than a weak France.


The primary alliance is Germany and Italy. Don't get hung on Austria - that Empire is doomed to fail and Germany should want to get those Germans into the German Empire.

And try to join with England in alliance against Russia to drive out Russian influence in the Balkans.

Do colony expansions except where they cause conflict with England. The long term goal is see the conflict with Russia under circumstances where its Russia facing an alliance of powers and then Russia gets broke up. After than Germany can change course for rival England and seek to displace for being the great international power. And by that point Germany will have a vast industrial advantage that would allow to outbuild the British fleet and force England to recognize Germany's superior position without a war.

[Terry Duncan]

No doubt Bismarck was actually rather short sighted in some of his political moves.

He failed to consider how conflict with Russia was only a matter of time - even if that time was decades away.

Why does there have to be a conflict with Russia at all? Many consider that a German-Russian alliance was possibly the most beneficial arrangement for Germany (iirc John Rohl thinks along these lines) and there is no obvious clash of interests between the two unless Germany decides to also try to ally with Austria.

And since France would never accept German dominance - he should have imposed a harsher peace and even brought in Italy and Spain to take slices of France territory.

Possible but the outcome might be anything but good for Germany. Prussia was not doing too well at finishing the war against the irregular opposition after Sedan and was rather glad the war ended and allowed them to take their troops out of hostile territory.

He should have took French colonies for Germany and taken the entire French colonial Empire and divided it between Germany, Italy, Spain and England.

So Prussia is giving notice she intends to dominate the continent and disband any state that opposes her. That is a similar situation to one less than a hundred years earlier and not likely to endear the new Prussia/Germany to anyone. Coalition warfare anyone?

Germany need a France reduced to third rate power and a France that knew that it was now a third rate power.

Germany needed a non-resentful France, not an attempt to divide a well established nation who's people will not accept these proposed new Spanish/Italian/British/German masters. French nationalism is not going to vanish and will create massive problems for any power silly enough to think they can suddenly occupy an area where the people have no wish to be anything but French.

The best solution for Prussia/Germany is to achieve a situation where France is not left resentful and the rest of Europe is not considering the new Germany as big a danger as Napoleon. Something that allows reconciliation would serve Germany by far more than having a resentful neighbour and several anxious ones wondering who is next, Denmark, Austria, France, ...?

[princeliberty10311517]

Non resentful France - not possible. The very fact Germany was taking France's place as the number one land power
on the continent means France is gunning for her big time.

Short term alliance with Russia yes, but sooner or later Russia massive ambitions means conflict is coming so Germany needs to makes moves for that to happen on her terms.

Bringing in Italy and Spain makes finishing off France a little easier and weakens threat of coalition.

Italy and Spain sure aren't going to be part of it. Italy can go after Austria if she goes for a rematch.

But Russia where focused on each other not what Germany was doing to France.

[Terry Duncan]

Non resentful France - not possible. The very fact Germany was taking France's place as the number one land power on the continent means France is gunning for her big time.

Reality says differently to that as France and Germany manage to co-exist without too much friction today. Any settlement might not be appreciated but it does not need to cause outright resentment. The bone of contention between the two after 1871 was not the money or the military reversal, it was the provinces taken from France that caused the lasting issue between the two. Germany could have even set up the territories as an independent entity similar to Belgium to form a buffer state, something France would be able to do little about and if this new entity was allowed free trade with anyone it chose then the result might end up as less resented that the actual settlement which in itself was not Bismarck's wish for the very reason of the resentment it would cause. It was Moltke that insisted on moving the frontier '75km closer to Paris'.

Short term alliance with Russia yes, but sooner or later Russia massive ambitions means conflict is coming so Germany needs to makes moves for that to happen on her terms.

Unless Germany starts to harbour ambitions in the Balkans or Asia Minor there is really little chance of a direct clash with Russia if Germany does not entangle herself with Austria.

[Baltasar]

France was even resentful when she wasn't part of the conflict in the first place. Frensh troops allegedly used “remember sadowa“, the French name for Königrätz, as a battle cry during their own war with Prussia,4 years later.

I tend to agree that it would have been better not to annex Alsace-Lorraine, but the nationalist sentiment wouldn't allow for anything less. If France had agreed to the first proposals, it would have been possible, but with the war prolonged by the French, it was out of the question. The Germans had to up their demands, simply as a result of pointless losses and expenses caused by the French.

Russia wasn't much of an issue for Germany, but they still preferred to throw in their lot with their “Germanic brothers“. It was a to of nationalist predominance after all.

[princeliberty10311517]

Back to the German focus on Russia? At what point would Russia sue or Peace?

What would Germany have to take and/or how much damage would have to be done
to the Russian military before the Czar decided to deal with reality for a change and sue for peace?

I think the key is take Petrograd esp. since the Czar would throw everything into trying to keep it.

[Baltasar]

With Germany deploying a good number of her armies in the east, Russia would apparently amass her own armies further inland and also use tree to four armies against Germany while using the others against Austria-Hungary. This setup will mean several things:
a) the Russian armies are initially out of reach of the Central Powers armies. They are also less likely to do the mistakes they made historically, being more careful in the face of substantial forces coming their way.
b) Austria-Hungary can deal with Serbia swiftly by retaining 2nd army in the area, basically doubling the number of troops they have at their disposal here.
c) with Serbia dealt with in 1914, peace talks may start already, Austria-Hungary presenting de facto cessation of operations on the Balkans.
d) depending on whether or not Britain and the Commonwealth join the war, the Dual Entente will realize that they can not oufight two land powers such as Austria-Hungary and Germany at the same time. Fighting might drag on, but I doubt that the French will be able to break the western front and Russia will have a very hard time putting up a fight against enemies which are numerically equal but tactically and techncially a lot more advanced.

[mudfladdy]

Hello,

i am new and i found this thread

My OPINION with German Focus on Russia in 1914 is
(Germany have 4 armies in the west, rest in the east, AH will move 2.Armee against serbia)
a.) France will declare war around 7-8 August, maybe earlier
b.) UK will declare war delayed.... i have no clue how much time will be "lost", it could be 2 weeks, 2 months. But - with the war going into November, UK is IN.
c.) France will violate belgish Areas as soon as possible, with british Support (i think UK will build some lies about german violations, maybe they will try to kill the belgish king and make it a "hun plot".)
d.) Russia will still go in attack mode, will suffer terrible defeats in prussia and loose 2 armies very fast. In the south the austrians will operate carefully and avoid the deasaster in galiza. but they will NOT destroy russian armie, maybe push em back some Kilometers
e.) Russia will - after the BIG losses in the beginning try to retreat and suffer worse... in late october the Germans will have crush 3 russian armies, destroy 2-3 more and with moderate losses to themself destroy, surround or take the big fortresses in poland. Russia will try to establish a "far-away-defence-line", after the loss of most good trained troops, 3/4 of their MG, 1/2 of their guns.
f.) France will kill a lot men (worth 2-3 French armies) for nothing. they will go through the ardennes and suffer terrible. After that they will try to go through northern belgium, (in this time UK is allready atwar with Germany) and cause belgium to join the Central Powers. the german losses so far are high, but a lot lower as OTL. UK and France had been the agressor, USA is not amused and has no interest in accepting ANY blocade the british want.
g.) the osmans will join in october 1914, as OTL.
h.) Italy stay neutral, but it is MORE Neutral as OTL.
i.) Austria has crushed the serbian army but suffered very high losses in this process. the rest of the serbian army flee into albania, causing big Trouble. From November 14 on, the british and French start to move troops into this area, causing BIG Trouble in greece.
j.) Bulgaria joins the war to get a part of serbia....
k.) Romania is true neutral, selling all Kind of goods to the central powers. they see Germany winning this war and have no interest in joining the Entente.
l.) Norway, Sweden, Denmark and the dutch see the Entente as evil Bloc, ignoring neutral nations. So they Support partly open the Germans because they fear the british will attack them, too.

With the war going into 1915:
the congo is taken by the british, the other german colonies along OTL, too.

But - with the Blockade broken (the USA demand and get the right to sail to any place they want to sail) the CP get important stuff, make Money (Chemical Industry goods!) and the Entente is in bad shape.

the british will think about an Invasion of norway, but this Need time.
in the spring 1915 the Germans break the neck of russia, pushing the front deep into russia. The romanians will join or stay neutral (and get the border Areas, maybe even Odessa for this). the austrians push the russians through the southern ukraine and the Germans move along the coastal area (supportet by the fleet). in the Center logistcal Problems reduce the Speed of operations.

in the west the French and british will try to break through, repeating the OTL operations, just with huger losses.
italy will stay neutral, only if the Entente offers MUCH MORE, it will join the war. But i doubt this will happen in 1915.
why?
cause in Autum 15, the russians are done... the army has 1 rifle for 4 men, morale is down and the supply Situation has been worsen...
the tzsar could be removed, but another government quickly will accept that defeat is sure. So they start to negotiate peace.

If Germany accept it, they will plan "West 1916" and all nations know it is time to negotiate peace in the west.

the british will come out lightly... they have to give back any taken colonies, they have to pay small amounts of Money (they are allowed to save their face). They loose Zansibar (it make the german-eastafrica-colony helpless), they have to give back all Areas they took from the osmans, they have make peace with them and have to Keep away from persia. Also they have to give the two stolen battleships or - enough Money so the osmans can buy These ships in Germany.

France - well, France loose large parts of North western France (to belgium), its army is reduced to 100.000 men, no planes, the fleet goes to the CP. they have to pay a lot Money, partly they are allowed to pay in "colonies" if they wish. Belgium and german get some Areas in africa. but nothing important.

the scandinavians, the new Baltic nations and the new poland, belgium, the dutch and AH, Romania, bulgaria and the osmans join the Mitteleuropa-economic Zone.... new members after some years will be spain, italy, greece... so France (weakend) and UK (lost in the sea) have no Chance to start another war. Russia could be in a civil war, maybe it will be supported by Germany and - much later could join "Mitteleuropa", too.

[Futurist]

Any drawbacks to this strategy.

1. It doesn't necessarily keep Britain out of World War I for the entire duration of this war.
2. It eliminates any possibility of a quick German victory.

[Futurist]

I tend to agree that it would have been better not to annex Alsace-Lorraine, but the nationalist sentiment wouldn't allow for anything less. If France had agreed to the first proposals, it would have been possible, but with the war prolonged by the French, it was out of the question. The Germans had to up their demands, simply as a result of pointless losses and expenses caused by the French.

Frankly, if Germany was going to annex Alsace-Lorraine, then it should have also annexed resource-rich Briey and Longwy (as well as possibly Nancy) while it was at it. After all, this might have very well significantly weakened France's military power for decades to come.

[Futurist]

No doubt Bismarck was actually rather short sighted in some of his political moves.

He failed to consider how conflict with Russia was only a matter of time - even if that time was decades away.

Why does there have to be a conflict with Russia at all? Many consider that a German-Russian alliance was possibly the most beneficial arrangement for Germany (iirc John Rohl thinks along these lines) and there is no obvious clash of interests between the two unless Germany decides to also try to ally with Austria.

The thing is, though, that by virtue of demographics, such an alliance would eventually result in Germany becoming Russia's bitch (similar to how Austria-Hungary became Germany's bitch in real life). Indeed, Russia's demographics and population will ensure that Russia, rather than Germany, will eventually become the dominant power in Europe. Frankly, the only way for Germany to reduce and mitigate the effects of this would be to go to war with Russia and to strip Russia of most of its non-Russian-majority areas.

Also, if I myself was the German Kaiser during this time, then I might very well want to acquire Russia's Baltic provinces in order to help facilitate greater population growth in Germany.

[Baltasar]

I tend to agree that it would have been better not to annex Alsace-Lorraine, but the nationalist sentiment wouldn't allow for anything less. If France had agreed to the first proposals, it would have been possible, but with the war prolonged by the French, it was out of the question. The Germans had to up their demands, simply as a result of pointless losses and expenses caused by the French.

Frankly, if Germany was going to annex Alsace-Lorraine, then it should have also annexed resource-rich Briey and Longwy (as well as possibly Nancy) while it was at it. After all, this might have very well significantly weakened France's military power for decades to come.

Yeah, that might be the case. However, Realpolitics would not allow for that. Germany had to consider what Britain, Austria Hungary and Russia would allow for.

[Futurist]

I tend to agree that it would have been better not to annex Alsace-Lorraine, but the nationalist sentiment wouldn't allow for anything less. If France had agreed to the first proposals, it would have been possible, but with the war prolonged by the French, it was out of the question. The Germans had to up their demands, simply as a result of pointless losses and expenses caused by the French.

Frankly, if Germany was going to annex Alsace-Lorraine, then it should have also annexed resource-rich Briey and Longwy (as well as possibly Nancy) while it was at it. After all, this might have very well significantly weakened France's military power for decades to come.

Yeah, that might be the case. However, Realpolitics would not allow for that. Germany had to consider what Britain, Austria Hungary and Russia would allow for.

Would any of these countries have actually went to war with Prussia/Germany over the Briey-Longwy area in 1871, though?