glenn239 wrote:I would LOVE to see the Prime Minister defending INVADING Belgium.
So the hope is that the British and French will
look forward to Russia being wiped out?
The Prime Minister would state that Russia’s very existence was at stake from an Austro-German war of aggression, and the west had to assist her. That Germany will use Belgium as a shield, then come around and crush France as soon as she could. The BEF goes to France and joins the attack.
The Prime Minister might want to explain why the very existence of Russia, which was certainly not at stake, not even in OTL, was important to Britain. In that time, wars were not fought to annex complete countries, at least not countries of the size of mother Russia. Even the Brest-Litovsk treaty of OTL 1917 did only annex a comparatively small part.
On the outside chance Britain declares war on Germany and really goes crazy and invades Belgium, Belgium would then be on Germany's side and the 3 German armies and the Belgium could easily hold the line of Meuse river and Alsace Lorraine.
Three smallish German armies are going to hold 5 French, 1 British and 1 Belgian army? If they don't the war is over.
With respect to the assumption that Belgium joins Germany, I did not ask about that contingency. I asked what happens if Belgium, following her international interests, joins France. What does Germany do?
The three and a half German armies would certainly not be smallish, especially not on a rather confined front as Alsace-Lorraine. In 1870, the regular three Prussian and allied armies totaled about 300,000 men which made the drive to Paris, plus follow up formations. The 1914 armies were rather larger and a lot better equipped.
The British 'army' was virtually not existing in 1914, at least not in a sufficient size to call it an army. The BEF would be neglectible until it would show up in force, which would take quite a while, because they didn't have conscription and the enthusiasm to join the war effort as soldiers would be a lot less, because the question for the Brits would be: 'What's that got to do with us?'
The Belgian forces, while more numerous than the British, were less good equipped and would lack an actual reason to fight. The Belgian borders had been guaranteed by several nations and those borders would not be violated, at least not by the Kaiserreich. The treaties between France and Belgium always were only effective if Germany attacked Belgium, not if
France attacked
Germany. So, what's the reason for Belgium to join the war on France's side?
Also, WHEN would Britain and/or Belgium join on either side of the war, IF they actually would've joined in?
In any case, I would assume that the Ostaufmarschplan could be modified to release a fith army to the west as a border guard and general reserve if either the Belgians or the French try to move around the other 3 and a half armies.
One other question you have not addressed: Luxembourg. Does Germany invade Luxembourg to protect Metz, or does Germany not invade and risk that France will do so instead?
The politics would be worth the risk. If France really violated the borders of a neutral state, that'd swing public support even more to Germany. Besides, as that country isn't too big, it'd borders could probably be covered as well.