What if Germany won the First World War?

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Baltasar
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#31

Post by Baltasar » 07 Jan 2005, 04:31

I do think China and N. Korea are two different countries for the record.But your observation is right-German Empire would have to resort to many military and inner security measures diverting its resources from elswhere, and in enviroment full of rivalising states, often containing ethnic it would oppress at home, German Empire would be in a weakened position and thus vulrnable to either attack or internal revolution.
I was referring to the Austro-Hungarian empire, not the German which had far fewer minorities inherent. The AH empire would gain the remaining parts between itself and the Ottoman Empire plus a shar of the Ukraine and the most north eastern part of Italy. Then, after the war, AH too would gain much by the indemnities from Italy and France. Britain, on her own powerless on the continent, would have to pay too, otherwise the KM could start hostilities with subs again.
The political problems would have to be solved one way or another, but you're assuming that each and every minority wanted to escape the AH empire, which is certainly not the case.
It isn't my assumption.Uprisings in Silesia and Poznan happened before WWI, and in WWI several Poles gained military experience, which they used in paramilitary organisations formed before the WWI. I see no reason why it should happen otherwise.
Well, in this timeline they would face the majority of the Kaisers army, not only a few policemen.
Then you are unawere of several laws made against Poles and shootings of Polish women and children during strikes in Silesia.
Feel free to enlighten me. Also I would examine the circumstance in each and every case first, before accusing anybody.
Harsh as Versailles ? Doubtfull-Germany didn't have USA on its side, and how could it enforce them on Grt. Britain ? I can see France being treated badly, but how are they going to achieve anything else then peace with Britain ?
See obove concerning Britain. Italy and France could easily be occupied, Britain could also be threatened via the Ottoman Empire, eg Egypt and India.
They differed in that that military tradition and obedience was more worshiped in Germany.Germany had no colonises worthy to speak of and tried to colonise the Eastern Europe, hence its ethnic cleansing there.
Germany had quite some colonies prior to WWI, located in Africa, the Pacific and China.
But only Prussia owned its existence to conquering a neigbour occupying its land, and opressing its ethnic population.
Much like any other major power, eg England, the early Frensh and so on.
I can live if people who believe Wehrmacht wasn't conducting genocide don't respond to me(if that are the people you are talking about )
The point they argue about is your claim that the whole of the Wehrmacht conducted war crimes.
Possible.Still the national desires of people making up the Empire were strong enough to tear it apart.
Potentially yes, but as I said before, not all minorities wanted to leave the empire.
A quite sizable minority, which dominated several areas impotent to the Reich.
:lol: I suppose you mean important? Well, important they may have been, but not vital. And still the uprising would face the better part of the Kaisers troops.
It did precisely that, after the war. To show an example.British victory didn't stop their colonise from rebeling after WWII, and in Europe Poles would have more support from German hostile countries like France or Britiain.
Neither the Frensh nor the British would be in any position to support a Polish uprising.
This didn't stop my countrymen before from fighting Smile Actually your statement from the perspective of Pole is quite funny-no w don't get me wrong, nor I want you to feel insult, but such statemants are used as a joke in our culture to show how diffrent we and Germans think. German authorites have used that argument in the past over and over-it never worked.
Neither did violent uprisings work. Personally, I think it's too sad to consider it a joke.
There was a lot of movement for Polish independence in the Polish population, paramilitary training etc.Revolt in 1905 in Russian occupied Poland.On the other hand we see the rise of nationalism and militarism in Germany.What possible tendencies present in those times led you to such conclusions.
Rather easy: Having fought four years, the German population wishes to have peace. Millions have died on both sides far away from home and it's time to put the guns away and rebuild what's left. The population, while still loyal to the Kaiser, is deeply disappointed by the way the war was fought and the cost in human life, thus becoming much more critical towards the military. In the rebuilding phase, the "Burgfrieden" is renounced, opening the stage for politicians. In this enviroment, the government is aware that the occupied provinces must be kept content and in order to do so, gives them equal rights towards Germans, may be allow partly independence, making them equal to any other state within the Kaiserreich.
Yup, Polish state was to be created in the concept of Mittleeuropa in the latter stages of the war.Germans even made Regent Council in Poland.Guess what ? Nobody worked with it, there were almost no volunteers for its proposed military units, and at the first occasion it gave over its power towards to Polish freedom fighters. I can give you even more fitting example.What you speak of was made in Russia, Poland was an internal kingdom in its own right in Russia during XIX century, had even its own army, parliament, laws etc. The result was of course an uprising.
Can't see why an uprising was a logical result, but then again I'm not familiar with the complete story.
Russia -how do you deal with-support the Whites or let it fight in anarchy
The Kaiser would most likely want to support the whites, at least that is my uneducated guess.
Territories-which territories Germany takes, which Austria gets ?
Germany would take Belgium, may be temporaily occupy parts of France and exploid it's recources. Also, the treaty of Brest-Litowsk would still be valid. AH has been adressed above.
Austria-how can it keep its loose structure with all the minorties fighting to get away from it or dominating it
A solution had to be found. With the army free to supress uprisings, a political solution might be the road to take.
Britain-it can't be defeated, nor can it be dictated what to do.Its navy protects it. How does it react in the long term ?
Adressed above.
German state-it is likely it will face internal conflicts with minorites and between militaristic parties and socialists.
Conflicts may occour, but the loyality of the majority would still rest on the Kaiser. Violence would be possible, but would be unlikely to lead to a major uprising within the German population. As before a political solution would have to be found.

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#32

Post by Oberst Mihael » 07 Jan 2005, 14:42

Of all the "what if" things, I like the prospect of a Central power victory in WW1 much more than e.g. the Axis winning in WW2.
We would keep Trieste, Gorizia and maybe acquire some more territories, not to mention being on the victorious side. :lol:
(with all due respect to our Italian forum members! :oops: )


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Re: What if Germany won the First World War?

#33

Post by Futurist » 21 Aug 2016, 03:29

stg 44 wrote:What would Europe have looked like had Germany won? Let's say that the 1917 offensive by Ludendorff succeded and the allies capitualated before the US got to Europe. The war is over. What would the next war look like? There would be a second war. Would the US have involved itself? Would Germany have won? What would happen to the world as a result?
1917 offensive or 1918 offensive?

Anyway, though, if Germany somehow manages to achieve a late victory in World War I, then it will acquire iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy (as well as possible some or all of the rest of Lorraine) from France, possibly establish a German protectorate over Belgium, and acquire Brest-Litovsk-style territorial gains in the East. Meanwhile, Austria-Hungary will be allowed to annex Serbia and Montengro and will annex the Carpathian slopes (which were previously a part of Romania). Meanwhile, Bulgaria will annex Macedonia (from Serbia). As for Britain, it will receive a white peace. Meanwhile, as for the German colonies, either the Entente will keep them or the Entente will return some or all of them to Germany in exchange for German concessions in Europe. Also, the Germans certainly overthrow Lenin and the Bolsheviks in Russia after the end of World War I. Indeed, the best post-war outcome for Germany in Russia would probably be to play off rival White Russian military commanders against each other after the Bolsheviks' overthrow and thus to essentially keep Russia in a Chinese-style state of warlordism and internal divisions for years, if not decades.

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Re: What if Germany won the First World War?

#34

Post by antwony » 24 Aug 2016, 09:01

Futurist wrote:
stg 44 wrote:What would Europe have looked like had Germany won? Let's say that the 1917 offensive by Ludendorff succeded and the allies capitualated before the US got to Europe. The war is over. What would the next war look like? There would be a second war. Would the US have involved itself? Would Germany have won? What would happen to the world as a result?
1917 offensive or 1918 offensive?
Good question, he must mean the Spring 1918 offensive, that has been called the Ludendorff offensive.

I realise this is a "what if?" thread, so my apologies for not playing... but.

The 1918 offensive did, pretty much, succeed. I consider it fair to describe the 1918 offensive as the ultimate example of 20th. century German military incompetence. It had no clear aims, nothing of strategical importance was captured and it's only result was accelerating Germany's inevitable defeat.

Stg44's question was also wrong about US involvement (because he got the years mixed up???), the US was already well committed by that stage.

Germany was about to starve. Hitler, et. al, were wrong about WW1 not being a loss.
Abdul Hadi Pasha wrote:The Ottomans didn't need shoring up. They had been at war continuously since 1911 and during WWI fought on seven fronts simultaneously, and still managed to avoid collapsing as did the Russians, Germans, Austro-Hungarians, and Bulgarians. If the war had ended in 1917, it's hard to say what would happen to their Arab territories; if the Germans kept their obligation not to make a seperate peace, the British would have to evacuate all Ottoman territory, and the collapse of Russia would open oppotunities in the Caucasus.

German influence over the Ottomans is always exaggerated; in fact, the Ottomans were quite adept at soaking the Germans for money and equipment. A Central Powers victory would not have given the Germans contol over the oil resources of the Mid East, but it would have given them a definite edge for contracts to develop it.
I'd agree with you about the Ottomans not needing "shoring up" as they were totally doomed. They couldn't get across the Suez in 1915. Despite the most favourable circumstances possible, they couldn't take ground from the Entente during the Dardanelles campaign and they totally fell apart in the Sinai and Palestine.

I'd agree with you Abdul, in that the Ottoman Empire didn't fall apart like the Austro-Hungarian, nor the Russian Empires, they fell apart far worse and achieved far less during their disastrous attempts to be a player in World politic's during WW1.

November 1918, the Ottoman's were gone, Hungary was being occupied by troops coming up from Macedonia/ Serbia, Innsbruck had been captured and troops from the Italian front were nearing the German border. And that's not to mention the less than good situation for Germany on the Western Front.

Theoretically, Germany controlled the Ukraine i.e. Europe's "wheatbasket", but even if they had (they didn't) the rolling stock to get supplies from there, they no longer had transportation network in Germany to distribute it to the people. In 1945, Germany (sort of) managed to function when cut off from all imports. I'd argue they'd made some reasonable moves then to survive lack of vital resources. I'd doubt they would survive so "successfully" in 1919.


Apologies for the long mail, but even for a hypothetical situation discussing anything apart from complete defeat for the Central Powers in WW1 as akin to asking: "What if the Confederate Army had stukas at Gettysburg?"

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Re: What if Germany won the First World War?

#35

Post by Politician01 » 24 Aug 2016, 12:55

Germany winning WW1 would be the second most prefferable outcome. The first would be no WW1 to begin with.

But if the Germans win WW1 - there will be no fascism, no communism and most likely now WW2. So we are looking at some 150+ million lives saved.

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Re: What if Germany won the First World War?

#36

Post by antwony » 24 Aug 2016, 13:55

Politician01 wrote: there will be no fascism,
Do you any evidence at all to back up that claim?
Politician01 wrote: no communism
The Soviet Union had already formed. The Germans had transported Lenin to Russia and provided him with funding to found the USSR.

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Re: What if Germany won the First World War?

#37

Post by Politician01 » 24 Aug 2016, 14:25

antwony wrote:Do you any evidence at all to back up that claim?
Do you have any evidence at all to back up your counterclaim? The main theses of the historian Nolte is that fascism came into existence as a reaction to communism. Also as a reaction of Germany losing the war.Both thing will not have happened in this TL.
antwony wrote:The Soviet Union had already formed. The Germans had transported Lenin to Russia and provided him with funding to found the USSR.
1. Depends on when Germany would have won. 2. A victorious Germany would not have allowed a Bolshevik Russia - or at least not an indipendent Bolshevik Russia. In any case Russia - whatever the form of government - would have been severely weaker without its Eastern parts and with the Caucasus occupied.

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Re: What if Germany won the First World War?

#38

Post by antwony » 24 Aug 2016, 14:39

Politician01 wrote:
antwony wrote:Do you any evidence at all to back up that claim?
Do you have any evidence at all to back up your counterclaim? The main theses of the historian Nolte is that fascism came into existence as a reaction to communism. Also as a reaction of Germany losing the war.Both thing will not have happened in this TL.
I didn't make a counterclaim.

Your "main theses of the historian Nolte" is irrelevant as the Soviet Union had already formed, assisted by Imperial Germany.
Politician01 wrote:
antwony wrote:The Soviet Union had already formed. The Germans had transported Lenin to Russia and provided him with funding to found the USSR.
1. Depends on when Germany would have won. 2. A victorious Germany would not have allowed a Bolshevik Russia - or at least not an indipendent Bolshevik Russia. In any case Russia - whatever the form of government - would have been severely weaker without its Eastern parts and with the Caucasus occupied.
1. Maybe.
2. Once again, the Bolsheviks were aided by Imperial Germany.

Please don't bother replying to me. I'll be ignoring you from now on.

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Re: What if Germany won the First World War?

#39

Post by Politician01 » 24 Aug 2016, 14:51

antwony wrote: Your "main theses of the historian Nolte" is irrelevant as the Soviet Union had already formed, assisted by Imperial Germany.
Oh really? I seem to recall that the USSR did not form until 1922 - before that they had to win a civil war which they would not have won in a TL where Germany wins WW1 because the Germans would have seen the Communists as a threat. But I guess to consider all these events transcends your abilities.
antwony wrote:2. Once again, the Bolsheviks were aided by Imperial Germany.
By god. Yes they aided them because they wanted Imperial Russia out of the war. And no if Germany had won it would NOT have aided them because Germany would have seen them as a threat. Is that so hard to understand???
antwony wrote: Please don't bother replying to me. I'll be ignoring you from now on.
:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: What if Germany won the First World War?

#40

Post by Guaporense » 26 Aug 2016, 05:16

Over the past 200 years there have been only two major wars: WW1 and WW2, they were both caused by the same fact: about 100 years ago, Europe was the world's center, it constituted it's richest and most important region, all the cutting edge in science and innovation happened in Europe. Germany was the largest and most powerful country in Europe, hence, probably the most powerful country in the world around 1914 and Germany was located in the middle of continental Europe. It was quite natural in this situation for Germany to actually try to conquer the rest of Europe and create a massive superstate.

However, in both cases the rest of Europe (and it's colonies) managed to organize quite well and hold itself as a coalition together and effectively mobilize themselves to prevent Germany's takeover of the continent. Since the causes of WW1 and WW2 were the same, if Germany wins WW1, there is no reason for WW2 to happen.

In fact, Niall Ferguson argues in that direction: he states that the UK should have allowed Germany to take over continental Europe. Then we would have an EU 40 years earlier but more German centered. And also, continental Europe would continue to be the world's center of gravity. Facebook might have been created by someone living in Europe instead of a Jewish "refugee" living in Europe's colony. The world today would also be significantly more prosperous (thanks to additional decades of growth without WW2 and the Great Depression*) and the communists would have never taken over Russia, China or Eastern Europe.

*The Great Depression had such enormous effects on the world because Europe's economy declined greatly from WW1 and the associated hyperinflation, which made the US's economy more influential to the world's. As a result, when a heavy crisis hit the US, the US's effects on the world economy were amplified by the fragility of Europe.
"In tactics, as in strategy, superiority in numbers is the most common element of victory." - Carl von Clausewitz

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Re: What if Germany won the First World War?

#41

Post by Takao » 26 Aug 2016, 06:35

Politician01 wrote:By god. Yes they aided them because they wanted Imperial Russia out of the war. And no if Germany had won it would NOT have aided them because Germany would have seen them as a threat. Is that so hard to understand???
When, prey tell, do you fantasize about Germany winning World War I? Is it 1914 or 1915?

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Re: What if Germany won the First World War?

#42

Post by T. A. Gardner » 26 Aug 2016, 07:58

Given the original poster's scenario of a late war German win (certainly within possibility), the most likely outcome is a negotiated peace treaty between France, Britain, and Germany.
I'd say that Germany trades off letting France remain intact with German occupation of the Alsace region and other bits acquired in the Franco-Prussian war while occupying some or all of Poland. Belgium returns to neutrality as a sop to the British. The Austro-Hungarian empire remains intact for the time being. It's likely the AH Empire would dissolve into a civil war within a decade or so in any case.
Russia has a revolution and Germany occupies some territory, along with possibly the Baltic states as part of that. They'd likely support certain factions and the distinct possibility exists that Belorussia and or Ukraine manage to stay separate nations with German help.

Britain would be a stopper to a Versailles-like treaty by Germany. They couldn't impose one on France as Britain would remain undefeated but likely to not want to pursue the war alone by 1917. So, Germany makes nice with the British: Drop the blockade and Belgium is neutral and unoccupied. France is unoccupied but in no condition to do anything about Germany in the East.

Germany and the Austro-Hungarians get concessions out of Eastern Europe and everybody's happy... For the moment...

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Re: What if Germany won the First World War?

#43

Post by T. A. Gardner » 26 Aug 2016, 08:03

Guaporense wrote:Over the past 200 years there have been only two major wars: WW1 and WW2, they were both caused by the same fact: about 100 years ago, Europe was the world's center, it constituted it's richest and most important region, all the cutting edge in science and innovation happened in Europe. Germany was the largest and most powerful country in Europe, hence, probably the most powerful country in the world around 1914 and Germany was located in the middle of continental Europe. It was quite natural in this situation for Germany to actually try to conquer the rest of Europe and create a massive superstate.
This is wrong. You forget the Napoleonic wars. Those, if you include the American war of 1812, were the world war of the era. All three, were caused by revolutions in government that were followed by nationalistic expansionism. None had anything to do with the economic or technological might of the nation starting them. All three found those starting them ending up being crushed by an alliance of (loosely) everybody else.

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Re: What if Germany won the First World War?

#44

Post by antwony » 26 Aug 2016, 12:04

Guaporense wrote:Over the past 200 years there have been only two major wars: WW1 and WW2,
No, as pointed out by Mr. Gardiner
Guaporense wrote:they were both caused by the same fact
Yes, they were both caused by German military aggression.

Everything else you write is an irrelevant, incorrect, and off-topic rant.
T. A. Gardner wrote:Given the original poster's scenario of a late war German win (certainly within possibility), the most likely outcome is a negotiated peace treaty between France, Britain, and Germany.
I'd disagree with you, as I'm sure you'd already got if you'd read my earlier post. But, sure it's possible. I've actually gone off her quite a bit over the years, but the internet tells me Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie are breaking up. There's a possibility I'll get myself to LA and hook up with her. I could use a rich sugamama.
T. A. Gardner wrote:Russia has a revolution and Germany occupies some territory, along with possibly the Baltic states as part of that. They'd likely support certain factions and the distinct possibility exists that Belorussia and or Ukraine manage to stay separate nations with German help.
Finland, briefly, had a German King and after the armistice their was alot of fighting along interethnic and political lines in the Baltics with heavy German involvement.

As I was saying in my first post, the original poster's premise that IF the German Spring 1918 offensive had succeeded was my big problem with his scenario as it did, pretty much, succeed. It's just what ever plan there was behind it was, to be generous, not sound thinking.

But, yes the German's did have some kind of victory plan and in the east it was succeeding.

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Re: What if Germany won the First World War?

#45

Post by T. A. Gardner » 26 Aug 2016, 20:20

Antwony...

I postulate that a German late war win is possible, not probable, but certainly possible. Let's say late 1917:
  • * The US isn't in the war yet
    * Germany launches the Kaiser offensives
    * French Army morale collapses (again) and a mutiny ensues.
    * France sues for peace, dragging Britain to the negotiating table
Given the already extant collapse of Russia and Italy, the above is not far fetched. Basically, I'm postulating a negotiated peace, not an outright surrender. That is both sides get something positive out of the peace agreement as both sides are completely worn out from fighting.

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