Could The USA/British Empire have won on their own?

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KDF33
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Re: Could The USA/British Empire have won on their own?

#1006

Post by KDF33 » 01 Feb 2013, 08:09

Hello BDV,
Now, you remove the jews from the economy, you remove that production of wealth. 1 billion RM per annum for Germany alone. Then Germans go and do that for the entirety of Europe. In ocupied teritorries by brute force, in vassal lands by "persuasion". Most dictator-underlings go along to get along, some (Horthy) murmur a faint protestation, but go along nevertheless. Only Mannerheim and Franco laugh at such imbecility.
I don't dispute the fact that disenfranchising the Jewish citizens of Germany before the war, and looting and destroying their property, proved wasteful. How much is the question, however, and if the figures you provided are correct, the answer appears to be "not much". To give but one example, the military spending of Germany is estimated at 53 billion RM in 1940, 71 in 1941, 91 in 1942 and 112 in 1943. A loss of 1 billion RM per annum barely registers. Even your top estimate of 5 billion RM for occupied Europe is still but a fraction of the total, which in any case couldn't have been entirely redirected to German war production in the first place. Lastly, a large number of Jewish prisoners were used in economic activities, so they did not entirely "go to waste".

Regarding the Holocaust in itself, it probably was somewhat more wasteful, but also had some "benefits", as the liquidation of the Jewish citizens of Poland during 1942 illustrates: it freed up foodstuffs for the German population. The same would have applied, on a much larger scale, to the "Hunger Plan", which meant to starve out Russia's urban population to redirect agricultural production to the German Grossraum. For the Nazis, mass murder played both an ideological and a practical role, and often both at the same time.

Obviously, I am not condoning their atrocities, and even if the Holocaust or the planned genocide in Russia held some practical utility, I am not arguing that it was just a sensible, if cold-hearted, set of policies rendered necessary by the war. In the context of the Nazi regime's plans for a forcible reordering of the world, however, I don't think that their usage of extreme violence was in itself self-defeating - if anything, it was necessary for the achievement of their far-reaching goals, the grandiosity of which proved, IMO, a lot more decisive in their defeat than their wanton acts of brutality.

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BDV
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Re: Nazi Economic Mismanagement

#1007

Post by BDV » 01 Feb 2013, 16:27

Well, a single facet of mismanagement accounts for a 2-5% reduction in wealth production. And yes, given the Nazi custom to squeeze everything dry, one can project that the surplus would go to the war expeditures, where it could make anywhere from 4-10% of the war spending.

As to the objection that commerce dependent* economic opportunities would be less, others would be much, much more (finding ersatz materials and circulating them adequately, value of entertainment/morale, value of medical services).

In particular if one additional qualified surgeon is assumed to save one additional soldier per day during shooting war, at a modest value of 100,000 RM per combat veteran, that's a modest 3 million RMs/month/surgeon, starting in June 1941. But hey, if Germany confiscated surgeons' valuables in 1938 for 250,000 RM after he went into exile, German economy must have gotten ahead, no?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
*But even in commerce, finding ways to circumvent the blockade would be huge for Nazi Germany.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion


Carl Schwamberger
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Re: Nazi Economic Mismanagement

#1008

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 01 Feb 2013, 17:16

BDV wrote:Well, a single facet of mismanagement accounts for a 2-5% reduction in wealth production. And yes, given the Nazi custom to squeeze everything dry, one can project that the surplus would go to the war expeditures, where it could make anywhere from 4-10% of the war spending.
2% here, 2% there & soon you are talking about serious wastage. I was trying to remember yesterday where I read about the underutilization of French machine tools compared to French use for wartime production from September 1939. The writer claimed that while the comparison to depressio era use of the 1930s did not look so bad comparison with use during the eight wartime months, and projections from French planning for 1941 make German use look very bad.

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Re: Nazi Economic Mismanagement

#1009

Post by ljadw » 01 Feb 2013, 17:48

BDV wrote:Well, a single facet of mismanagement accounts for a 2-5% reduction in wealth production. And yes, given the Nazi custom to squeeze everything dry, one can project that the surplus would go to the war expeditures, where it could make anywhere from 4-10% of the war spending.

As to the objection that commerce dependent* economic opportunities would be less, others would be much, much more (finding ersatz materials and circulating them adequately, value of entertainment/morale, value of medical services).

In particular if one additional qualified surgeon is assumed to save one additional soldier per day during shooting war, at a modest value of 100,000 RM per combat veteran, that's a modest 3 million RMs/month/surgeon, starting in June 1941. But hey, if Germany confiscated surgeons' valuables in 1938 for 250,000 RM after he went into exile, German economy must have gotten ahead, no?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
*But even in commerce, finding ways to circumvent the blockade would be huge for Nazi Germany.
The assumption of the surgeon saving one additional soldier per day,is,IMHO,very questionable,and is,IMHO,invented to serve as an argument .
The same for the assumption (=invention) of a value of 100000 RM for a combat veteran .

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France in WWII

#1010

Post by Marcelo Jenisch » 01 Feb 2013, 17:54

Discuss an alternative scenario where France survives is interesting. Ernest May's - Strange Victory: Hitler's Conquest of France provides conclusive evidence that France could have survived in '40, particularly if they had listen to their intelligence and did not have overconfidence in their capabilities to force Germany to attirion warfare. Had the original German plan was put in practice, France would likely have survived. BTW, Anglo-French were planning to attack the oil production in Baku, the British even carried out recon flights in the USSR for do this.

Not a subject from here, but overall alternative scenarios where France survives can generate good discussions.

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BDV
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Re: Nazi Economic Mismanagement

#1011

Post by BDV » 01 Feb 2013, 20:12

ljadw wrote:The assumption of the surgeon saving one additional soldier per day,is,IMHO,very questionable,and is,IMHO,invented to serve as an argument .
Indeed, it is intended as a gedankenexperiment, like the entirety of this forum. What is your estimate of the influence of one extra qualified surgeon?

Surgeons, though are a good example of the vast difference in the economic value of one person from peacetime to wartime. In peacetime a surgeon is likely to tend to the elderly, the chronically sick, and the infirm, where the medical act, while noble and humanitarian, has limited (maybe even net negative) economic impact. In a wartime, the same skills save the lives of combat veterans, with humongous positive economic impact.

The same for the assumption (=invention) of a value of 100000 RM for a combat veteran .
So, what do you think the average cost of removing an able-bodied person from the economy and their full military induction and training to would be? And that's still a "greenhorn" of military value significantly less than that of a combat veteran.
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Re: Could The USA/British Empire have won on their own?

#1012

Post by ljadw » 01 Feb 2013, 20:40

The following are the number of DOW of the Feld/Ersatzheer in the secondhalf of 1941

june: 1709
july: 5613
august:6598
september:5257
october:4697
november:3469
december:3990

I am very curious about the influence (if there would be one) of an additional number of 100 doctors:the chances of survival of the wounded did not depend on the number of available doctors,and,if the number of available doctors would increase by 1%(what would be very optimistic),it is not so that the number of DOW would decrease by 1% .IMHO,there is no correletation between both ,unless the fact that more doctors result in more sick and wounded .
But,this has already been discussed .

From an economical POV,one can state that it is better not to nurse heavily wounded,sick and mutilated,because they only are a cost for society

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Re: Could The USA/British Empire have won on their own?

#1013

Post by phylo_roadking » 01 Feb 2013, 21:30

I'd like to put in here that German field medicine and surgery and nursing turned out to be nowhere near as well-developed at the Allies' 8O

German surgeons did almost nothing in terms of wound debridement or bone excision; all they did was stabilise and close wounds...and treated casualties were literally put aside with the minimum of care, to recover....or shuffle off their mortal due to nectrotic wounds, infection etc. - German field surgeons would habitually NOT re-enter wounds to remove bone splinters or chase down infection!...and THEN, once they could be moved - IF they lived!.....they were shipped all the way home to be nursed at home or in local German hospitals. So they also had to survive that trip...!

In other words - IF German field casualties survived all that (mis)treatment...they either made a FULL recovery and eventually made it back to the front, tho' perhaps in a "stomach and eye" battalion - or they would be next to useless in the home economy, left crippled and casting bone fragments etc. that should have been removed on the surgeons' table months before!
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BDV
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Re: Surgical Surgeries

#1014

Post by BDV » 01 Feb 2013, 21:58

ljadw wrote:I am very curious about the influence (if there would be one) of an additional number of 100 doctors:the chances of survival of the wounded did not depend on the number of available doctors,
That is incorrect. Prompt medical attention/surgical intervention post-trauma is key to improved outcomes, both for patient survival and for functional recovery.

Fewer surgeons can offer prompt surgical intervention to fewer patients.

and,if the number of available doctors would increase by 1%(what would be very optimistic),it is not so that the number of DOW would decrease by 1% .IMHO,there is no correletation between both ,unless the fact that more doctors result in more sick and wounded .
The jewish physicians were AFAIK 16% of the german physicians pre-Schicklgruber. Assuming that 50% of docs stayed back, we're talking a possible 33% boost to front unit physicians compared to historical levels.

However, even the benefits of additional surgeons would potentially be dwarfed if additional infectious disease specialists would be available on hand on the OstFront, so that the dysentery epidemic of December 1941-March 1942 would have been nipped in the bud by the imposition of draconian handwashing standards.

But,this has already been discussed .
Indeed the abysmal practices and standards of Nazi Germany's field medicine have been touched upon, and stand in stark contrast not only with those of Bolshevik Russia, but even those of Civil-War-level republican Spain. UK or US field medicine standards were on different plane altogether.

From an economical POV,one can state that it is better not to nurse heavily wounded,sick and mutilated,because they only are a cost for society
Unless prompt surgical care ensure their "miraculous" recovery, that is. And there is the issue of morale, unless performed under complete discretion, these "bureaucrats play God" stunts commonly backfire.
Last edited by BDV on 01 Feb 2013, 22:09, edited 1 time in total.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

KDF33
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Re: Could The USA/British Empire have won on their own?

#1015

Post by KDF33 » 01 Feb 2013, 21:59

Hello BDV,
Well, a single facet of mismanagement accounts for a 2-5% reduction in wealth production. And yes, given the Nazi custom to squeeze everything dry, one can project that the surplus would go to the war expeditures, where it could make anywhere from 4-10% of the war spending.
It doesn't. Even your high estimate (5 BM / year, for the whole of Europe) would represent in 1940 at best 3.4% of the total economic activity of Germany, of which obviously a large part wouldn't be available to Germany since it could hardly tap the Hungarian or Ukrainian Jewish manpower by then. The Nazis also never "squeezed everything dry", although they did mobilize a large part of their economy for the war effort: in 1943, war-related spending represented 60.9% of Germany's GNP. So, all in all, the potential Jewish contribution to Germany's war effort was a drop in the bucket, which was dwarfed by the massive mobilization of financial, industrial and human resources that took place across the Nazi European empire.


Hello Carl,
2% here, 2% there & soon you are talking about serious wastage. I was trying to remember yesterday where I read about the underutilization of French machine tools compared to French use for wartime production from September 1939. The writer claimed that while the comparison to depressio era use of the 1930s did not look so bad comparison with use during the eight wartime months, and projections from French planning for 1941 make German use look very bad.
This could indicate Nazi stupidity or... the fact that the French economy had collapsed? The FoF cut off France from half of it's supply of coal (cf. Tooze). The Germans also more or less monopolized the French iron ore supply. Lastly, the French population suffered from a severe cut in it's food ration. Malnourishment, energy shortages and an obvious lack of motivation to work for the German war effort on the part of the workforce, meant that French productivity dropped to ridiculously low levels. The Germans did try to tap French home production, in particular their aircraft industry: it proved a total failure, and the French produced less than 3,000 planes during the 4 years of the occupation.

Mapping the total European coal supply during the war years might be of some utility. Here is the data for coal year 1942-1943 (1 April 1942 - 31 March 1943), which is representative of the whole:

Benelux: 37 million tons
France: 47 million tons
Greater Germany (consumed at home): 227 million tons
Greater Germany (exported): 42 million tons

Austria/Czechoslovakia/Poland is included in Greater Germany. Thus, the European coal supply hovered slightly over 350 million tons during the war years (the data excludes coking coal directly used at the mines). Obviously, the smaller European nations had some residual production, but it was absolutely minimal, as these figures for 1937 illustrate:

Hungary: 1 million tons
Italy: 1 million tons
Norway: 1 million tons
Spain: 2 million tons

In the case of France, with half the population of Germany, it had to make do with 1/5 of the Reich's coal supply. The coal situation was so bad in wartime Europe that Germany had to divert roughly 15% of it's own total supply to prop up it's satellites in south-eastern Europe and Italy. The only region that did not suffer from a debilitating coal shortage (to say nothing of the food shortage) was Greater Germany itself.

In light of this, the idea that Germany "failed to mobilize Europe" falls on it's face: the only way to "mobilize Europe" in service of the German war effort was to turn it into an adjunct of the German economy, i.e. by draining it of it's raw materials and prime workforce to concentrate it into the still-functional Greater Reich. Which is precisely what the Germans did: they mobilized roughly 10 million European workers, imported virtually the entire French and Swedish iron ore production as well as the alloying metal, bauxite and oil production of the Balkans. Was this process done optimally? Certainly not. But neither were the war efforts of the U.S. and Britain, which were not nearly as impaired by shortage as Germany's was.
Last edited by KDF33 on 01 Feb 2013, 22:28, edited 1 time in total.

ljadw
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Re: Could The USA/British Empire have won on their own?

#1016

Post by ljadw » 01 Feb 2013, 22:07

That the numbers of Jewish doctors was 16 % of the total number,pré-Adolf,is irrelevant:Barbarossa was Adolf PLUS 8 years .How many of these doctors would still be working,or would be available for the front?

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Re: Could The USA/British Empire have won on their own?

#1017

Post by KDF33 » 01 Feb 2013, 22:15

About the surgeons and German medical practice,
Indeed the abysmal practices and standards of Nazi Germany's field medicine has been touched upon, and stand in stark contrast not only with those of Bolshevik Russia, but even those of Civil-War-level republican Spain.
Well, when we compare the results obtained by Germany and the USSR's respective medical services, we get the following data:

Germany, DoW / discharged due to wounds (up to 31.12.44): 289,938 / 455,144

USSR, DoW / discharged due to wounds (GPW): 1,100,327 / 3,050,733 (from Krivosheev, p. 89 and 96)

Germany's total number of wounded (until 31.12.44) was about 4 million, whereas the USSR total for the GPW was about 15 million. This means that about 80% of the German wounded returned to duty, whereas about 75% of the USSR's did. Thus, judging by the results, the performance of Germany and the USSR's medical services appear to have been about equal.
Last edited by KDF33 on 01 Feb 2013, 22:23, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Physician's Professional Lifespan ...

#1018

Post by BDV » 01 Feb 2013, 22:19

... is approximately 40 years.

So in 8 years about 20% of the 16% jewish physicians would have retired. But some could have come out of retirement for domestic duties, allowing other physicians to go to the front. So the response is ~14%/f, where f is whatever percentage of the german physician pool was deployed for front duty.

Now, that's assuming no new jewish physicians are allowed to enter training.

P.S.

KDF33, Thanks a lot. Super-interesting.

P.P.S. But the "heavily wounded" DoW+discharged had a mortality rate of 38% for Germany and of 26% for Russia ...

The disentery epidemic alone of winter '41-'42 could have skewed the results in favour of Germany, as disentery while momentarily debilitating, is not very deadly in fit young males, and it is usually with full recovery.
Last edited by BDV on 01 Feb 2013, 23:14, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Could The USA/British Empire have won on their own?

#1019

Post by KDF33 » 01 Feb 2013, 22:25

It does appear that you had a proportionally higher chance of dying than being invalidated out if you were German, tho. But ultimately, whether dead or maimed, a loss is a loss.

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Re: Could The USA/British Empire have won on their own?

#1020

Post by phylo_roadking » 01 Feb 2013, 23:01

It does appear that you had a proportionally higher chance of dying than being invalidated out if you were German, tho.
...which is the flipside of my point above - that you had to survive to be invalided out...or not.

However...
But ultimately, whether dead or maimed, a loss is a loss.
...to the armed forces yes - but a labour loss on the home front? That would depend on the extent of injuries and their effect on those no longer fit for military service of any type...

..which might also just bring the discussion back to differences in criteria between, say, Germany and the USSR for mustering invalids out of service. The two nations might have had different ideas on what made an invalid unfit for military service...
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