Is this:The SU remaining neutral? – Yes. Japan is therefore either also neutral or is at war with the Soviet Union.
:the SU allied with Germany? – No, but the potential exists for such an alliance in both German and Allied calculations.
:the SU conquered by Germany ? – No.
And,when would the US joining the war?7 december 1941? Earlier ? Later ? - Later.
And,in these ATL,would the cash and carry still happen? And dito for LL? - Yes to both.
And,is one assuming a German victory in may/june 1940 resulting in the elimination of France ? – Yes.
The Soviet prices for their 'sales' to Germany were approaching extortion by June 1941.
The Soviets were bending over backwards up to the invasion to meet their obligations to the letter, ignoring the German failure to live up to theirs
there still would be a big(and after 1941,a even bigger) part of the army and the LW be tied on the eastern border .
I see no reason for why Germany, having just signed a new treaty with Stalin in 1941, would then require large forces to face east.
Germany can acquire resources from Stalin by some time, but still in insufficent quantity to challange the US and Britain.
But that’s up to Stalin, isn't it? We can't make up Stalin's mind for him. Ask yourself this; if the reward is the US and Germany killing each other into the 1950's, do you think Stalin will extend Germany a line of credit to keep the war going as long as possible?
Stalin would trade with Germany, but how Germany would pay? Germany was facing serious economic problems due to the British naval blockade, despite the Soviet help. How do you think Germany would pay Stalin to be able to sustain itself, occupied Europe, and still maintein massive garisons in the West and East, together with a massive wartime economy to at least aproch that of the US and the British Empire?
Germany can pay in four ways. First, by technology transfers. (Ie, how many tons of oil is the design blueprints and necessary tooling for a Type XXI submarine worth to Stalin?) Secondly, by barter for German goods. Third, by way of the Soviets extending a line of credit to Germany. Fourth, (and most significantly to the Allied war effort) in the way of what might be coined some sort of axis of evil lend-lease program. (ie, how many million tons of oil is it worth to Stalin to have the Soviet flag flying from bases at the mouth of the Bosporus?)