Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

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ljadw
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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#76

Post by ljadw » 19 Feb 2013, 22:33

They are not drawed from the HCH,but from this forum . :x

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#77

Post by ljadw » 19 Feb 2013, 22:52

From this forum :

French PLANNED strength for 24 september on the north eastern front: 56 divisions.

From a German source: German strength on 1 september on the north eastern front :34 divisions (and 12 in reserve in Germany).

THE FACT is that the French started the Saar offensive with 12 divisions :more were not available .


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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#78

Post by ljadw » 19 Feb 2013, 23:20

From ACG:German strength on 17 september 1939:43 divisions

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BDV
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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#79

Post by BDV » 20 Feb 2013, 18:02

LJ,

Please delete the superfluous postings.

Beyond that, as we have seen, there were some serious sparks on the CzSk-Hungarian front, as per your contention that there weren't. Ergo, Czechoslovak state had no intrinsic reticence at using the force of arms, even against tremendous odds. Also P. Novak's contention that on day "X" the french government gave message "Y" to the Czechoslovakian government is still unchallanged.

Also, as to Germany's being given "free hand" in Central Europe, why then the hardening of AngloFrench stance and the extension of military guarantees to "apetyt Hyena" Poland after the peaceful occupation of Czechia and the German peacemaking intervention in the Hungary-Slovakia conflict?

As such, the decision to not go to war was made (maybe stupidly) by the Anglofrench. Czech military deference to their bungling political leadership did not help, but Czechoslovakia was a civilized country, not Germany/Japan where the military caste could bully the government. End of case.

As to a Germany-Czechoslovakia war, it would quickly degenerate into a Germany (+Hungary) vs. France+ Great Britain+ Poland+ Czechoslovakia war (+Romania +Jugoslavia), IF France stands by its partners as she is supposed to.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#80

Post by ljadw » 20 Feb 2013, 20:13

I recognize the traditional historiography:if the stupid Baldwin/Chamberlain had listen to Winston,there would be no WWII.
After the war,Benes was blaming Daladier,who was blaming Chamberlain(who died in 1940,and was thus the ideal scape-goat).

But,of course,this story is a myth:
after WWI,the British governments (of which Winston was a member :wink: ) declared publicly that Britain would not fight if the borders of Central Europe changed,if Germany was dominating Central Europe again (as before 1918):Britain would only fight if there was a war on the continent :it keep its promise ;there was a war in 1939,and Britain intervened;

France did the same (10 years later):the constuction of the Maginot Line meant the abandonment of Poland and CZ,the acceptance of the German rearmament and the German domination of Eastern Europe .
BTW:the French-CZ alliance of 1924 had no military section and was thus worthless(the same for the French-Polish alliance):Poland and CZ were on their own and could not expect /claim any military help and never asked one..
Other point:if France did nothing when the Germans were going in the Rhineland,why would they risk a war for a quarrel in a faraway country betwen people about whom they did not care ?
There is also the fact that a French military intervention would not prevent the fall of CZ.

Now :some more precise points :
1)You said :if France was standing by her partners (you mean :CZ) as she is supposed to do :the point is that this meant nothing :if France standed by her partners,what was she supposed to do ? break the diplomatic relations with Germany,start economic sanctions,going to the League? Say :bad Adolf ? France was not even obliged to say :bad Adolf .It only had promised to give aide et assistance,which means in plain English:to give help.What this would imply ,would be decided by ....France,not by CZ. That's why the contention by P.Novak is totally irrelevant.

2)About your claim that Britain's stance was hardening (after Prague):this is not true .British policy did not change :it still was appeasement ,meaning trying to prevent a war :why was Britain giving a guarantee to Poland and Romania (always forgotten)? Because,there was talking about a German attack on these countries,which would result in a war,which would result in a British intervention .
These guarantees had no military value:Britain could not help Poland or Romania and would not take effect if Germany attacked these countries,only if these countries were fighting back .
Let's take 2 exemples:
After Munich,Britain was guaranteeing the borders of CZ,when Hitler invaded CZ,Britain did nothing.
After Prague,Britain was guaranteeing the independance of Poland,when Hitler attacked Poland,Britain declared war .
Why the 2 different attitudes?
Very simple :CZ did not fight,Poland did fight .The British DOW was not caused by the guarantee,but by the fact that Poland was fighting.
That's why war/peace did not depend on Britain,but(in 1938,on CZ,and in 1939,on Poland .

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#81

Post by ljadw » 20 Feb 2013, 20:19

I can't delete the superfluous postings :they hve no delete function ;

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#82

Post by BDV » 20 Feb 2013, 23:59

Negotiation in Munich followed with known result. It was presented to Czechoslovakia as new deal replacing Anglo-French plan and it was emphasized that if Czechoslovakia refuse new agreement France will cancel alliance with Czechoslovakia and both France and Britain will do nothing in support of Czechoslovakia in subsequent war. In addition both France and Britain also stressed that Czechoslovak refuse of this international agreement would mean that they will mark Czechoslovakia as aggressor in this conflict in the League of Nations.

As opposed to Poland being given an unconditional guarantee against Germany, AFTER Germany averted a major war in central Europe (spring 1939).
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#83

Post by painisgain » 10 Nov 2015, 09:21

ljadw wrote:The treaty of january 1924 mentioned only that if CZ was attacked by Germany,France would give help (in French :aide et assistance),which is of course meaningless,because,there was NOTHING about a military help,thus,remained :moral help,which is the usual blahblah .
This was the centerpiece of the situation. France was obliged to offer help in case of the German attack. There were further plans that made it clear it was a military help, but lets leave this alone. Even phoney war would be OK, or even a formal protest in the League of Nations.
The reason for the decision of the Czechoslovakia not to fight and surrender was a political pressure from both UK and France, where France stated that they won't honour the treaty they signed. Benes was afraid that the possible German-Czechoslovakian war would turn into a local one, with Czechoslovakia being marked as aggressor (for refusal to cede Sudetenland) and dissolved in Germany, with no further war. This would be end of the nation.
It was a very short sighted policy of UK and France. Had Chamberlain did nothing, the chances for WWII were dramatically lower, as Germany was not ready for war in 1938 (as evidenced by resigning of General Beck)

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#84

Post by painisgain » 10 Nov 2015, 09:25

ljadw wrote:
BDV wrote: Cz was on its own (it always had been on its own since 1918),surrounded by hostile neighbours(since 1918),and,that's why it yielded to Hitler's demands .
This is simply not true. It was a result of French/UK pressure. Good gamble that worked by Hitler, anything else would probably mean the end of his regime in 1938.

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#85

Post by painisgain » 10 Nov 2015, 09:33

Tim Smith wrote:
BDV wrote:In the air, it would be the last big biplane vs biplane battle.
I think the Luftwaffe biplanes were all in the ground-attack or training role by 1 Oct 1938. The Bf 109B, C and D had replaced them in the fighter role.
Nope. There were some 500 Bf-109 (mostly B,C versions) which were quite new to their regiments with multiple problems attached to this :

- some were not fully equipped and battle ready
- pilots had very limited training on modern planes
- there were no repair tools / skilled workers distributed to field units, so even minor damage would ground them.

There were multiple units still armed with Arado Ar-68 in fighter roles (more obsolete Heinkel He-51 was designed for ground attacks), they were rearmed to Bf-109D and later to Bf-109E (that was just entering the production in late 1938), but that happened AFTER the Munich crisis.

There would be some biplane to biplane fighting, if the shitty weather and limited supply of fuel, ammo, pilots would allow for that.

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#86

Post by painisgain » 10 Nov 2015, 09:52

wm wrote:4 months is rather unlikely. More like 4 days. There was a little over a hundred kilometers of nice plain terrain from the
non-fortified Austrian border to Prague, and any attempt of defense looks suicidal anyway:
dog.jpg
from 1939 Life Magazine
What is often overlooked in such claims is the simple fact, that 1938 Czechoslovakia was not supposed to be attacked neither by 1941 Wehrmacht from Barbarosa, nor 1940 version of Wehrmacht from France, nor 1939 version of Wehrmacht from Poland (all three having Czechoslovakian equipment such as tanks as substantial part of their armament) but 1938 version of Wehrmacht, which would be a huge difference.

Germany had no military service for long time, and there were not enough trained soldiers even if they completed the mobilisation (which they haven't). The equipment was lacking and faulty (remember : Wehrmacht had hard time to complete the annexation of Austria, i.e. just moving forward without actual fight in 1938), they needed time for training and bug fixing to become Wehrmacht of 1939.

Fall Grün was expecting surprise attack against Czechoslovakia, before it can mobilise, but this was not a case in late September 1938. German army had no plan for such eventuality, plus their own army was not in a full strength for planned attack of 10/1/1938.

The entire border was fortified (at least light lines). Wehrmacht yet had to figure out way how to pierce the fortifications. The artillery would prove ineffective. The naive methods they trained in early 1938 would most likely turn into a blood bath. They would find a way eventually, but how would Germany react to high casualties / little progress of war in the early days ?

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#87

Post by ljadw » 10 Nov 2015, 10:55

7.5 million Czechs would be crushed by 75 million Germans,if CZ had a chance it would not have yielded to Hitler .

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#88

Post by painisgain » 10 Nov 2015, 12:59

ljadw wrote:7.5 million Czechs would be crushed by 75 million Germans,if CZ had a chance it would not have yielded to Hitler .
Possibly. In a longer war, the sizes of the nations and the respective economies would prevail.
The real question is was Germany able to pull a victory fast enough to avoid massive loss and for its near-bankrupt economy to sustain the war ? Believe it or not, Czechoslovakia was in much better shape in several key areas - they had enough fuel, enough ammo, and they had gold and cash reserves that would allow them to buy goods if needed. Germany lacked all of that.
Czechoslovak army was about 1 million soldiers strong after mobilisation that was completed (and considered very impressive by other countries, including Germany, as it was done as planned within 48 hours), according to common "war guidelines" from that era it was believed that you need 3 to 1 advantage for successful attack, Germany was nowhere near having 3 million trained soldiers at that time. They sorely lacked training, and needed time to complete that. Wehrmacht of 1939 was a whole different army.
I would say chances that Wehrmacht would collapse with bloody nose at the border and advances very little was way more probable than quick 4 day crush as it was suggested earlier in this thread, with most likely outcome the attack would stop somewhere in the middle with German economy collapsing. No way they could pull a 1939 campaign agains Poland and 1940 against France after that.

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#89

Post by ljadw » 10 Nov 2015, 15:52

Sudetenland was already lost before one shot would be fired:it was inhabitated by people who were hostile to CZ and the government of Prague had lost already the control of the territory . The Slowaks also would not fight for CZ .

The number of 1 million is a theoretical number and much to high : 500000 is more realistic: this army was a colonial army :almost all generals were Czechs, there were few Slowak and no German officers .

The fortifications were limited to the old border with Germany,the border with Austria was open .

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

#90

Post by painisgain » 10 Nov 2015, 17:37

Funny. Can you provide us with sources for your "facts" ?
ljadw wrote:Sudetenland was already lost before one shot would be fired:it was inhabitated by people who were hostile to CZ and the government of Prague had lost already the control of the territory .
Both events of May 1938 and September 1938 proved that hold of Sudetenland was firmly in Czechoslovak Forces hands and any idea of coup or uprising was just Henlein wet dream.
ljadw wrote:The Slowaks also would not fight for CZ .
Certainly. But Slovaks had no problem fighting for Czechoslovakia at that time (1938). The split of the country in March 1939 was more a product of chance to not fall directly under German "protection".
ljadw wrote:The number of 1 million is a theoretical number and much to high : 500000 is more realistic: this army was a colonial army :almost all generals were Czechs, there were few Slowak and no German officers .
I looked up the numbers for you : From 1,250,000 eligible for mobilisation (including already active soldiers) 1,100,000 reported within 48 hours (3/4 within 24 hours) and were ready to fight. These are hard, cold data, not your "realistic" assumptions.
ljadw wrote:The fortifications were limited to the old border with Germany,the border with Austria was open .
[/quote]

This is not true. Here is the map of the fortifications on the border towards Austria : http://www.fronta.cz/mapa/opevneni-na-h ... -rakouskem Some of the objects are still there, you can visit them to find out yourself you are wrong.
German logistic would have a hard time to support attack from south even if they made it through the border fortification and single successful raid of Linz railways would present a serious problem for Wehrmacht)

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