Italians successfully defend Tobruk during Operation Compass

[Old_Fossil]

All the WIs I have read either assume that Operation Compass never happens (because the Axis have already overrun Egypt) or that it runs to its conclusion and Rommel must then start from El Agheila. What if Tobruk had not fallen to the Australian 6th Division's attack of Jan 21/22 1941?

For a POD I propose that Italo Balbo, C-In-C of Italian North Africa, did not die in the friendly fire shoot down of his SM. 79 on June 28, 1940. Instead he was only severely injured and by Jananury 1941 was ready to resume duties. He flies into Tobruk after the fall of Bardia and successfully energizes and organizes its defenders to save the fortress. What do the British do now? What to the Germans do?

Operation Compass was originally intended to be only a raid on the Italian army at Sidi Barrani. Afterwards the British would withdraw back to Mersa Mutrah. Unexpected success led to mission creep and the British swept all the way to Tobruk by Jan 21,1942 having captured over 80,000 Italians and pretty much destroying the Italian 10th Army. Though Churchill would have liked to take Tobruk, his ardor for sending a expeditionary force to Greece leaves insufficient reinforcements to take the fortress. Rather than give up all the territory gained, O'Connor is ordered to pull back to the Bardia/Ft. Capuzzo/Sollum area and to defend Halfaya Pass from the west. As in the OTL, Australian 6th Div and 7th Armoured Div are replaced by Australian 9th Div and 2nd Armoured division (less one brigade held back for Greece).

In this ATL Mussolini never calls for German reinforcements. Rommel goes Russia. The British easily hold the Bardia/Ft. Capuzzo/Sollum line against the Italians while in the rest of the Mediterrenean the OTL events occur. Once the British have dealt with and recovered from Greece, Crete, Iraq, Vichy Lebanon-Syria, and the Italian East Africa campaign they are ready by August 1941 to launch a new offensive into Cyrenaica. With all these forces and supplies the British will then sweep all before them and move into Tripolitania (screening Italian held Tobruk if necessary). Deeply involved with the invasion of Russia, Hitler will not have the means or resources to send two panzer divisions to Libya. And even if he wanted to he will have a hard time getting them past Malta during this time frame. Tripoli will fall to the British by the end of September 1941.

[stg 44]

In that case do the British try and invade French North Africa? I would think so, which might prompt Germany to invade Vichy to ensure they don't revolt. I think the Germans had enough forces in reserve just in case to quickly reinforce any trouble front though; that was the secret to their survival, they always had a reserve. Looking at their 1942 dispositions they had some 27 divisions in reserve, so I think they will find they could spare a division or two for Africa is necessary. The British too needed to worry about maintaining their supply lines, so the will be just as vulnerable as historically they were to a counter attack when they overextend once they role up the Italians. Rommel many not end up in Africa, but someone able will. Maybe Guderian gets exiled to Africa by the winter? Remember that historically to support a major advance all the way to Tripoli took the British building a rail line along the Med. coast, which is why Montgomery took so long to push into Libya; he didn't want to get caught at the end of an attenuated supply line like his predecessors.

[BDV]

I think it's reasonable to project that an early success of italians could conceivably throw them in a more severe bind later. And bolstered by early successes Mussolini would likely wait until too late to yelp for help.

If British manage to evict the Italians from Africa, a logical option would be a re-do of Abstention, for which they would now probably have the resources in early 1942. So instead of Dieppe, the British would do a 1942 Dodecanese Campaign.

Also, as ANZAC will be itching tend to the major threat to the homeland (the Japanese), the amphibious campaign will be done by Canadians and British forces. ANZAC forces will be busy making life tres miserable for the nippon soldiers.

On the other hand, the life will be harder for Soviets.

[stg 44]

I think it's reasonable to project that an early success of italians could conceivably throw them in a more severe bind later. And bolstered by early successes Mussolini would likely wait until too late to yelp for help.

If British manage to evict the Italians from Africa, a logical option would be a re-do of Abstention, for which they would now probably have the resources in early 1942. So instead of Dieppe, the British would do a 1942 Dodecanese Campaign.

Going just as bad if not worse than the historic campaign. Why would they leave French North Africa alone in this situation? I'd think they'd focus on turning it against Germany to secure more of the Mediterranean before turning on Greece. Which would be a disaster as per the historical campaign, but with more German resources to throw at the attack.

[Old_Fossil]

The British have multiple conflicting goals after seizing Libya in September 1941. They want to open the Mediterranean to convoys, to punch into the "soft under belly of Europe" by invading the Balkans and, of course, to knock Italy out of the war. The British aren't capable of a Operation Huskey sized invasion of Sicily so the next best thing would be to occupy Tunisia. This would be a difficult proposition. The Vichy French showed in Lebanon-Syria that they will fight. The French will be reinforcing the Mareth Line in response to the British approach to the Tunisian/Libyan border. Hitler will surely authorized the French to send reinforcements from Algeria and the mainland. The Royal Navy will not be able to effectively stop these reinforcements from reaching Tunis/Bizerta or Algiers. If the British do break the Mareth line and threaten Tunis then Hitler would almost certainly intervene. The attitude of the French is critical. Open collaboration with the Germans is anathema. They will oppose German intervention. This may actually turn out well for the Germans. Rather than just taking over Tunis and Bizerta, Hitler will also attempt to take over Algeria and the ports of Algiers and Oran. The British attempt to take Tunisia may end up giving Hitler the airbases he needs to shutdown Gibraltor!

[Kingfish]

In that case do the British try and invade French North Africa? I would think so

I don't see the rational for continuing the British offensive into Tunisia. What would be the goal?

[stg 44]

In that case do the British try and invade French North Africa? I would think so

I don't see the rational for continuing the British offensive into Tunisia. What would be the goal?

Bring the French forces over to the side of the British to put pressure on the Vichy regime and strengthen the Free French movement, while also humiliating the Italians and forcing the Germans to divert resources away from their other fronts. It also helps lock down the Mediterranean and if French North Africa goes Free French, then Britain could start supplying Malta more regularly via Gibraltar, while opening a series of bases on the Atlantic and putting pressure on Franco to stop giving Germany clandestine help in the Battle of the Atlantic. There are tons of reasons to continue on into Tunisia and Algeria if possible.

[Kingfish]

This WI assumes the new British offensive is launched in August '41. By the time that kicks off the British had already attacked the French fleet at Mers-el-Kebir and Dakar, as well as the operations in Syria and Lebanon. Call me crazy, but I don't think another British attack on French forces is going to bring them into the fold.

[stg 44]

This WI assumes the new British offensive is launched in August '41. By the time that kicks off the British had already attacked the French fleet at Mers-el-Kebir and Dakar, as well as the operations in Syria and Lebanon. Call me crazy, but I don't think another British attack on French forces is going to bring them into the fold.

Of course maybe they've learned their lessons about how to approach the French and with the Axis kicked out of Africa the French colonials will be willing to switch sides, seeing the way the winds were blowing. Plus fighting the British has been proven to be a losing proposition.

Of course that is based on the premise that the British with be able to take Tripoli before the Germans reinforce the Italians, which IMHO is virtually impossible.

[Tim Smith]

For a POD I propose that Italo Balbo, C-In-C of Italian North Africa, did not die in the friendly fire shoot down of his SM. 79 on June 28, 1940. Instead he was only severely injured and by Jananury 1941 was ready to resume duties. He flies into Tobruk after the fall of Bardia and successfully energizes and organizes its defenders to save the fortress.

What do the British do now? What to the Germans do?

This ATL scenario is a good one, but still, to my mind, involves a major Italian defeat.

According to this history:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Compass

by the time the British attacked Tobruk on 21 Jan 1940, they had already captured 74,000 Italian prisoners, and destroyed 7 of the 10 divisions of the Italian 10th Army. The Italian defeat in the Battle of Sidi Barrini had resulted in 38,000 Italian POWs, and their defeat at the Battle of Bardia in another 36,000. In both cases, that was more than the 25,000 captured at Tobruk. (Note, these figures do not include Italian KIA.)

Even if in the this ATL the Italians hold Tobruk, the fortress will still be isolated, and the rest of the Italian army driven away to Derna and Benghazi - to what was later known as the Gazala Line. The Royal Navy hold the advantage at sea due to the air strike on Taranto in November 1940 (Italy's 'Pearl Harbor') and so it will be very difficult for the Italians to resupply Tobruk except by submarine.

This situation is still very, very bad for the Italians - unquestionably bad enough for Mussolini to call for German help.

If Italy wanted to go it alone in Africa, she would need to hold Bardia as well as Tobruk, at the very least - and preferably, Sidi Barrini as well. Holding Tobruk alone is not enough.

[Old_Fossil]

"Tim Smith wrote:

[quote]Even if in the this ATL the Italians hold Tobruk, the fortress will still be isolated, and the rest of the Italian army driven away to Derna and Benghazi - to what was later known as the Gazala Line. The Royal Navy hold the advantage at sea due to the air strike on Taranto in November 1940 (Italy's 'Pearl Harbor') and so it will be very difficult for the Italians to resupply Tobruk except by submarine[quote]

This assumes that the British attempt to besiege Tobruk. They do not have the forces to do this. The Tobruk fortress has a perimeter of 47 kilometers and the British have just one infantry division. Rommel needed multiple Italian infantry divisions to encircle Tobruk in the OTL. In addition, in the OTL O'Connor attemped to attack Mechilli on Jan 24th and was initially repulsed by the Italians. He had to call for an Australian Brigade to reinforce the next attack only to discover that the Italians had slipped away in the night. In this ATL O'Connor will not have that Australian reinforcement available. It is tied down covering Tobruk. He also doesn't have the trucks and supplies he captured in Tobruk in the OTL. Too, the Italians will be emboldened by the successful defense of Tobruk and will not run away. They still have an infantry division at Derna and the Brigata Corazzato Speciale with 55 M13/40 tanks at Mechilli and more coming from Benghazi.

Maintaining a seige of Tobruk is IMHO an unlikely decision. More likely is the choice to wait for reinforcements for another attack. However, on January 29 General Metaxas will die and when him goes the Greek opposition to a BEF coming to Greece. That will spike the British reinforcements for a renewed assault on Tobruk. Rather that leave his left flank hanging in the air waitng for the Italians to counter-attack and/or break out of Tobruk the decision will be made to withdraw. In that case I think it doubtful that Mussolini will call for german reinforcements. In took the loss of all Cyrenaica before he did it in the OTL.

[Tim Smith]

You may not be taking into account the fact that British/Commonwealth infantry divisions had 9 infantry battalions, while Italian infantry divisions had 6 infantry battalions. So British infantry divisions were 50% larger than Italian ones.

Also take into account that British infantry divisions had 72 25-pounder artillery pieces, while the Italian infantry divisions only had 36 artillery pieces. Plus the Italian artillery contained pieces that dated from WW1, shorter ranged and slower firing than the 25 pounder. So overall a British infantry division had artillery 3-4 times more effective than that of an Italian division.

Basically in 1940-41 a British/Commonwealth infantry brigade had roughly the combat power of an entire Italian infantry division - even though a British brigade has only half the manpower of an Italian division, the superior quality of the British artillery (plus better mobility) compensates for that. So one British/Commonwealth division was worth three Italian divisions. This explains how the British could attack Tobruk with only one infantry division (supported by British armour) while the Italians needed 3 divisions (supported by German armour) later on. And it explains how two British/Commonwealth divisions managed to defeat ten Italian divisions during Operation Compass - the odds against the British were not as bad as it appeared at first glance.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Ar ... y_division
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Ital ... 80%931946)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Ar ... #Artillery

[Old_Fossil]

You are correct about the relative sizes of Italian and British Infantry divisions. Benny the Moose thought more was better (on paper at least) and reduced Italian divisions from three regiments to two so more divisions could be formed. However that still implies that the 6th Australian division is still trying to do the work of two divisions to encircle Tobruk properly. So the issue still stands: the British in this ATL don't have the manpower to besiege Tobruk and defend themselves from the growing Italian relief force. Withdrawal is their best option.

[Markus Becker]

The British have multiple conflicting goals after seizing Libya in September 1941. ... The British aren't capable of a Operation Huskey sized invasion of Sicily so the next best thing would be to occupy Tunisia.

Not so sure. They had high hopes for an offensive in NA conducted in the fall of 1941. So high that they planned to land several divisions stationed in the UK on Sicily in the spring of 1942.

Also take into account that British infantry divisions had 72 25-pounder artillery pieces, while the Italian infantry divisions only had 36 artillery pieces. Plus the Italian artillery contained pieces that dated from WW1, shorter ranged and slower firing than the 25 pounder. So overall a British infantry division had artillery 3-4 times more effective than that of an Italian division.

I read that all guns were WW1-designs. To matters worse 2/3 were light 75mm guns and only a dozen 100mm guns with half decent firepower.

The seemingly poor state of the divisions stationed in NA was perfectly reasonable though. In the 1920s and 30s the Italians had to deal with insurgencies and they are best fought with a lot of light infantry. Invading Egypt was never an option as the British Empire would have crushed Italy. The Fall of France changed that but so unexpectedly that Italy could not exploit the opportunity.

[Old_Fossil]

"Tim Smith wrote:

Even if in the this ATL the Italians hold Tobruk, the fortress will still be isolated, and the rest of the Italian army driven away to Derna and Benghazi - to what was later known as the Gazala Line. The Royal Navy hold the advantage at sea due to the air strike on Taranto in November 1940 (Italy's 'Pearl Harbor') and so it will be very difficult for the Italians to resupply Tobruk except by submarine

This assumes that the British attempt to besiege Tobruk. They do not have the forces to do this. The Tobruk fortress has a perimeter of 47 kilometers and the British have just one infantry division. Rommel needed multiple Italian infantry divisions to encircle Tobruk in the OTL. In addition, in the OTL O'Connor attemped to attack Mechilli on Jan 24th and was initially repulsed by the Italians. He had to call for an Australian Brigade to reinforce the next attack only to discover that the Italians had slipped away in the night. In this ATL O'Connor will not have that Australian reinforcement available. It is tied down covering Tobruk. He also doesn't have the trucks and supplies he captured in Tobruk in the OTL. Too, the Italians will be emboldened by the successful defense of Tobruk and will not run away. They still have an infantry division at Derna and the Brigata Corazzato Speciale with 55 M13/40 tanks at Mechilli and more coming from Benghazi.

Maintaining a seige of Tobruk is IMHO an unlikely decision. More likely is the choice to wait for reinforcements for another attack. However, on January 29 General Metaxas will die and when him goes the Greek opposition to a BEF coming to Greece. That will spike the British reinforcements for a renewed assault on Tobruk. Rather that leave his left flank hanging in the air waitng for the Italians to counter-attack and/or break out of Tobruk the decision will be made to withdraw. In that case I think it doubtful that Mussolini will call for german reinforcements. In took the loss of all Cyrenaica before he did it in the OTL.

I've discovered something amiss with my WI. I has assumed that if Tobruk didn't fall the Afrika Korps would not be sent. This does not seem to be the case. Fuhrer Directive 22 (issued 11 Jan 41) outlined sending forces to North Africa but the actual order to start sending troops came before the fall the Tobruk, not after.

See topic: http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... onnenblume

So if Tobruk holds in this WI then the Afrika Korps is still coming, only now major parts of it can land at Benghazi in addition to Tripoli. In addition the Sonnenblume convoys can be larger so deployment will be quicker. If the British do withdraw from Tobruk they'll be in for a very nasty surprise by the end of March.