Germany occupy Egypt 1940

[alltoes]

What if Rommel was sent to Libya with 4 armored divisions in 1940? Let's say DAK (Deutsch Afrika Korps) joins Graziana (sp?) assault into Egypt around September 1, 1940. I am sure Rommel would continue attack forward. This would force Italians to continue with him. What and when would be the effect of reaching Alexandria, Cairo, and Suez Canal? What are the potential effects if Malta was occupied July, 1940 or not invaded? What is possible response of UK? What was the potential for continuing attack into Palestine and Middle East? Would Greece fall to Axis without a shot? Would UK abandon Mediterranean Sea (at least eastern)?

[phylo_roadking]

What if Rommel was sent to Libya with 4 armored divisions in 1940?

Exactly WHEN in 1940 did the GErmans have four armoured divisions spare to send to North Africa???

Let's say DAK (Deutsch Afrika Korps) joins Graziana (sp?) assault into Egypt around September 1, 1940.

Ahem - you sure these weren't slated for SEALION at that point?

P.S. are you forgetting that Hitler offered Mussolini assistance and he refused???

[KDF33]

Btw, taking Egypt doesn't win much. To win, you have to reach Basra on the Persian Gulf. The Middle East is a strategic dead end, unless it serves to tie down Allied units far away from more important theaters.

[alltoes]

Operation SeaLion was "dead in the water" so to speak. There was no way an English invasion could occur. The armored divisions were just sitting there doing nothing! And yes Mussolini refused because Hitler did not involve him with the French armistice. Again there are many questions "if" Germany occupies Egypt. It is interesting how many don't answer the questions. There comments are sometimes skewed and sometimes irrelevant to the question.

[LWD]

They weren't doing nothing by just sitting there. The British took the potential of Sea Lion seriously. If it's not a threat then they can deploy more resourcs elsewhere.

[Kingfish]

A quick search on this forum will reveal quite a few threads dealing with an Axis advance to and/or capture of the Delta. In just about everyone the WI falls apart once logistics rears its ugly head. Simply put, no one that I know has made a convincing argument that the Axis can provide enough supplies to get four panzer divisions from Tripoli to Alexandria.

[alltoes]

LWD, UK should have seen Op SeaLion as a real threat! AND Germany should have displayed this threat as well. 4 German armored divisions in Libya may have been viewed as a diversion.
Kfish, Tobruk to Alexandria is around 400 miles. In September, 1940 there were around 40K UK troops in Egypt. Supplies could have been built up in July. Besides, how do you think the Italians took care of 250K of their troops? How do you think the British captured so many retreating Italians? Logistics is part of the game. Although there was a lot of desert, high temperatures, and poor roads, I am positive 4 German armored division could have "marched" into Alexandria and Cairo!!!

[Kingfish]

Kfish, Tobruk to Alexandria is around 400 miles.

What was the cargo capacity of Tobruk in 1940?

In September, 1940 there were around 40K UK troops in Egypt.

Do you believe the British would keep the numbers to around 40K if they found out Germany was shipping 4 panzer divisions to North Africa?

Supplies could have been built up in July.

The problem is not so much getting supplies from Taranto to Tripoli, although it was by no means an easy sailing. The problem is getting it up to the front line, and then having the flow keep up with the spearheads. Again, do a search of relevant threads.

Besides, how do you think the Italians took care of 250K of their troops?

Take a good look at the order of battle between the Italian 10th army and your proposed 4-panzer Afrika Korp, then tell me if we are comparing apples to apples.

How do you think the British captured so many retreating Italians? Logistics is part of the game. Although there was a lot of desert, high temperatures, and poor roads, I am positive 4 German armored division could have "marched" into Alexandria and Cairo!!!

Armored divisions don't march, they drive, hence the difficulty in keeping thousands of vehicles on the move when the source of their most precious commodity, fuel, itself has to be trucked from a thousand miles away.

[LWD]

Then there's the question of whether or not 4 panzer divisions could make it to North Africa in 1940.

[alltoes]

Are you kidding? 4 panzer division could have been deployed to Libya in July 1940. The journey would have been perilous, but it could be done. Second, UK was more concerned with its potential invasion. I do not believe UK would deploy armored units and infantry divisions to Egypt. Especially since most of their heavy equipment was left in France and Belgium. They probably would have sent part or all of Force H from Gibraltar. But this force too would be subjected to strikes. In regards to oil, it was an issue on both sides. Besides, as the axis forces continued their "march" (this was meant once the 40K troops were eliminated, it was basically what the troops would do) ports would be available. I am sure retreating troop would destroy as much of the ports as possible. But some of the facilities would be available. Once Alexandria is occupied, it is basically over for the British in Egypt. Italian movement to the south would be similar to the Nile flowing backwards!!!

[KDF33]

Let's assume for an instant that Germany succeeds in taking Egypt. What advantage does it gain from that?

I see none.

[alltoes]

I see huge potentials. And so did many German leaders including Admiral Raeder. Remember it was Raeder who recommended occupying Norway. First, it closes the Suez canal to the British. Now they must travel around Africa.....thousands of extra miles. Second, it places pressure on the British to abandon the eastern Med. If the Germans recognized the potential, they would continue to the Middle East. There were 2 oil pipelines from Iraq to the Med...somewhere near Beirut if I remember correctly. By occupying Transjordan and Syria, it places pressure on Turkey to allow transit rights, pro-German, or an axis ally. Now Germany has an avenue to attack the "soft underbelly" of Russia. Both Georgia (even though Stalin was from Georgia) and Armenia desired independence. Baku, which produced between 60-70% of russian oil was 100 miles (150 km) from Iran. Iran was pro-German. The presence of German forces in Iran would force the UK into a tighter corner. For the fear of invading India was more than a dream and now possible. This may have forced Britain into an armistice. "If" a British armistice was signed let's say June 15, 1941, what would happen to troops in France and Belgium????!!!!!!

[ljadw]

All these potentials are wishfull-thinking :

1)The Suezcanal : the Mediterranean as a passage to India was already abandoned in june 1940,BEFORE the presence of even ONE German soldier in NA.

2)Räder was only an admiral without a navy

3)In the OTL,the Germans had a lot of problems to supply 2 mobile divisions east of Tripoli, thus 4 in Suez :roll:

4)The distances :Cologne -Tripoli : 2000 km,Tripoli-Suez:2000 km,Suez-the oil fields of Iraq:2000 km


5)If the Germans conquered the oil fields of Iraq, :roll: everything would be destroyed and burning,and the Germans had no Red Adair to repair the destructions .

[Deans]

As Kingfish suggests, Logistics (at several levels) would be the reason 4 Panzer divisions would not be able to get from Tripoli to Alexandria. IMO, a deployment of the DAK would not begin any earlier than the historical timeline. (it was sent to stabilise the crumbling Italian army, not to capture Egypt). Assuming however, that the Germans had bigger ambitions, they would still be faced with the following problems:
1. Where do you get 4 Pz divisions - when the force earmarked for Barbarossa is already under-strength in tanks.
2. How do you transport them to North Africa. Its not just a question of Italian shipping capacity, but the availability of fuel, escorts
- to counter what would be an automatic increase in the RN's strength in the Med, and port capacity in Libya. these factors also
influence the ability to keep a large armored force resupplied.
3. Is there enough fuel to transport this force to the front and sustain operations ?

There would also be a similar build up of strength by the Allies (who have larger port capacity) - something that a lot of WI's tend to ignore. Within the theatre, there would not be any forces diverted to Greece. At least 1 more armoured division could be shipped from Britain and a couple of Infantry divisions could be found from India.

[Kingfish]

Something else to consider is the political angle. Mussolini harbored his own grand vision of an Italian empire, and deep down wanted to show the world that the Italians could play the conquest game as well as the Germans. Here we are asked to consider a scenario that has him acceding to German "request" to come play in what he considered his own private sandbox (pun intended), this after Hitler had just turned down his own offer of 10 Italian divisions to participate in Sealion.