Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

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Aragorn1963
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Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#1

Post by Aragorn1963 » 26 Jan 2014, 15:31

I would like to ask this forum what would have happened if the Germans had managed to arrange a ceasefire in the West in the summer/autumn of 1944 and would have been able to concentrate their forces in the East. I'm not suggesting the Germans could have stopped the Red Army and I know a ceasefire in the west would have been extremely unlikely, even after a succesfull 20th of July. I'm also not interested in the political aspects of such a situation, merely in the military consequences and possible/likely operations in the Baltic, Poland and Rumania.

All I would like to know is how the fighting would have developed. Would the Germans have been able to transport enough reinforcements to the Eastern front to delay or stop the Russians, would Stalin have stepped up the pace etc. I'm studying this hypothesis now for a year or so and find it hard to draw conclusions, perhaps you can help me to draw a picture of how the end of Germany would have looked like. Personally I think defeat would have been inevitable, but no doubt it would have cost the Russians even more casualties and a couple of months more fighting.

Conditions for this scenario are roughly: Hitler is dead, Rommel has taken over and sweeps away Himmler and the like, Germans will withdraw from Western Europe asap, Western allies agree to an immediate ceasefire, Lend Lease deliveries to Russia are stopped, both Germans and Russians are exhausted after heavy fighting and huge losses following operation Bagration, so the front is 'stabilizing' more or less like it did in Poland in the autumn of 1944, German weapon production is at it's peak, Finland decides to stay in the war for another while after significant German deliveries of antitankweapons and assault guns and Rommel throws everything he can find to the east.

What would probably have happened and how?

ljadw
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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 19

#2

Post by ljadw » 26 Jan 2014, 22:04

This is a non sequitur :never would Germany be able to contrate enough forces in the east to obtain a pat .Never.


werd
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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 19

#3

Post by werd » 27 Jan 2014, 00:22

Aragorn1963 wrote:I would like to ask this forum what would have happened if the Germans had managed to arrange a ceasefire in the West in the summer/autumn of 1944 and would have been able to concentrate their forces in the East. I'm not suggesting the Germans could have stopped the Red Army and I know a ceasefire in the west would have been extremely unlikely, even after a succesfull 20th of July. I'm also not interested in the political aspects of such a situation, merely in the military consequences and possible/likely operations in the Baltic, Poland and Rumania.

All I would like to know is how the fighting would have developed. Would the Germans have been able to transport enough reinforcements to the Eastern front to delay or stop the Russians, would Stalin have stepped up the pace etc. I'm studying this hypothesis now for a year or so and find it hard to draw conclusions, perhaps you can help me to draw a picture of how the end of Germany would have looked like. Personally I think defeat would have been inevitable, but no doubt it would have cost the Russians even more casualties and a couple of months more fighting.

Conditions for this scenario are roughly: Hitler is dead, Rommel has taken over and sweeps away Himmler and the like, Germans will withdraw from Western Europe asap, Western allies agree to an immediate ceasefire, Lend Lease deliveries to Russia are stopped, both Germans and Russians are exhausted after heavy fighting and huge losses following operation Bagration, so the front is 'stabilizing' more or less like it did in Poland in the autumn of 1944, German weapon production is at it's peak, Finland decides to stay in the war for another while after significant German deliveries of antitankweapons and assault guns and Rommel throws everything he can find to the east.

What would probably have happened and how?
Before studying such questions, take an interest that such "density of defense".Why for example for 2 years at war in Korea 38 parallel sides lost one million dead and have not achieved results. Then see where the German troops were at the time of capitulation. And whether it was necessary in 1945 to fight in Italy and Norway?
Last edited by werd on 27 Jan 2014, 06:17, edited 1 time in total.

werd
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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 19

#4

Post by werd » 27 Jan 2014, 00:30

ljadw wrote:This is a non sequitur :never would Germany be able to contrate enough forces in the east to obtain a pat .Never.
In 1941-1942 the Germans captured 5 million Soviet soldiers.From 1943, Hitler did not spend offensives and stretched the front line. This 8 wonder of the world, that Russian came to Berlin!

Aragorn1963
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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 19

#5

Post by Aragorn1963 » 06 Sep 2014, 08:44

Very helpful...thank you.

Aragorn1963
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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#6

Post by Aragorn1963 » 27 Aug 2015, 14:39

Any sensible reactions perhaps? I know it is unlikely, it is a 'what if'-situation. Those usually are somewhat far fetched.

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pintere
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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#7

Post by pintere » 27 Aug 2015, 17:14

If the conditions you set are before Bagration, I think the Germans would have a chance at a stalemate. But afterwards, no, not very likely. One of the greatest problems the Germans faced at that time was their severe shortage of men. After Bagration (and Normandy too, for that matter), I don't see them having much of a chance at holding out for very long. I think the end of the war may have been delayed six months under that scenario, but still in a Russian victory.

Aragorn1963
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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#8

Post by Aragorn1963 » 27 Aug 2015, 17:42

Very unlikely indeed. But with more reserves perhaps the Red Army's blood could have been drained by more local victories like Bautzen and Lauban (but this time preferably located in Poland and Eastern Prussia). If those costs were high enough Stalin would perhaps have decided to make peace. The Germans would gladly have accepted the pre-Barbarossa borders. Perhaps Stalin could have 'Finlandized' Germany and forced it to become neutral, get rid of fascist/nationalistic influences in the government and effectively become a Russian puppet state. But no Russian occupation of course, which was the greatest concern of people like Stauffenberg, Beck, Goerdeler etc. Germany would have collapsed in itself with all her cities in ruin, a destroyed economy and a shattered international reputation. Only someone like Stalin would be willing to do business with such a country. Perhaps it would have helped the 'Easterners' within the former German oppostion to move Germany in the direction of Moscow.

Yes, the realms of fantasy, I know, but please remember people that this is a what-if thread and the future often is unlikely.

glenn239
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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#9

Post by glenn239 » 27 Aug 2015, 18:29

Aragorn1963 wrote:Any sensible reactions perhaps? I know it is unlikely, it is a 'what if'-situation. Those usually are somewhat far fetched.
Some are further to be fetched than others, however.

In this case, the western allies have, for reasons unknown, thrown over the Grand Alliance and have started the Cold War before the defeat of Germany. Why the Allies would do such a thing can only be guessed at, perhaps they lost a bet daring them to shoot themselves in the foot.

Your question is, what is Stalin's reaction to this? Well give us more information. Did Stalin conclude he can still take Berlin and drive into the Ruhr? Or did he conclude that with the whole German army coming east he cannot make further meaningful headway? If it's the former, then what were the Western Allies smoking to hand Stalin all of Europe to the Rhine? If the latter, then the answer on what Stalin will have to do seems pretty obvious.

Aragorn1963
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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#10

Post by Aragorn1963 » 27 Aug 2015, 19:10

One could imagine for instance that the Western Allies started to realize the threat of communism in their own countries (call it an early rise of McCarthyism) and the penetration by the NKVD of society and government (personally I think McCarthy wasn't as stupid as they say he was). One could imagine that the losses after the invasion were a lot higher and therefor the support to continue the war a lot less.

If Stalin realized that a fight to the death with Germany would cost him more than he hoped for and would leave him severly weakened entering a Cold War with the Western Allies, then perhaps he would have changed his mind about unconditional surrender. Stalin was a realist and could sell everything to his people, even the end of the war against the Germans.

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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#11

Post by glenn239 » 27 Aug 2015, 20:46

There's your answer then. The start of the Cold War is sooner and either the Soviets have the Germans to play off the Americans, or Stalin has reached the Rhine. In either case, the Allies should be in a worse situation than historical, so why did they agree to the armistice in 1944?

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sitalkes
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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#12

Post by sitalkes » 01 Sep 2015, 05:16

Well I guess the question is really what could the Germans have done if they had sent the forces used for the Battle of the Bulge east instead of west? Would they have just been swallowed up in the maelstrom? That's the kind of forces they would be able to use

Aragorn1963
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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#13

Post by Aragorn1963 » 01 Sep 2015, 06:02

sitalkes wrote:Well I guess the question is really what could the Germans have done if they had sent the forces used for the Battle of the Bulge east instead of west? Would they have just been swallowed up in the maelstrom? That's the kind of forces they would be able to use
That's right, Sitalkes, that is my question.

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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#14

Post by maltesefalcon » 06 Sep 2015, 19:51

More detail is required.
Why did the AngloAmericans suddenly sign off on a cease fire and when exactly?

What happened to the Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe units that were there? Depending on when the the ceasefire occurred, many of these troops were already killed or captured by September 21, which is the earliest date for your fall time line.

Was there a prisoner return on both sides. Would the forced labourers from France Belgium and Holland be returned?
Would these countries still be required to supply food and manufactured goods to the Reich?

What about Italy, Greece and Yugoslavia? Would these areas remain occupied by the Germans? If so it makes a fairly weak case for a cease fire IMHO.

Finally what would the newly transported divisions do onthe Ostfront in the fall? The weather would be turning bad shortly, making any offensives doubly difficult.

Depending on the response of the OP, I will reserve my opinion on the outcome.

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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#15

Post by maltesefalcon » 10 Sep 2015, 00:59

Note to OP:
Just curious why you would resurrect a thread after nearly a year then stop replying?

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