Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

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Karelia
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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#31

Post by Karelia » 28 Sep 2015, 17:13

Aragorn1963 wrote: ...
Perhaps even the Finns would have continued fighting, if they received a couple of thousand more AT weapons and a dozen more assault guns? Or if they didn’t the Germans perhaps would have been able to bring their Lapland army back home and let them join the fighting in Romania?
...
As many have already stated, this scenario is highly hypothetical, but I'm always ready to take part when Finland is being involved... ;-)

The Finnish army at the end of summer 1944 was at it's all time strongest. The Red army had been stopped and there were enough troops, modern arms and supplies for the time being. There were even plans for Finnish counter attacks. The reason why Finland still signed the very unfavourable peace treaty was simple - the good situation could not last for ever.

Although the soviet troops assigned for conquering Finland in summer 1944 had failed and were consumed, Russia could have eventually renewed the attack (but only by risking the race to Berlin). The USSR was getting seemingly endless flow of arms and supplies from the West. Germany on the other hand was going to lose the war and the arms and supplies from there would have dried up in months. Without them it would have been impossible for Finland to continue fighting.

For Finland to be able to continue the war two conditions should have been fulfilled: Germany should have been able to make peace with the West and the West should have stopped the support for soviets - both the political and material.

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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#32

Post by Aragorn1963 » 02 Oct 2015, 11:41

Karelia wrote:
Aragorn1963 wrote: ...
Perhaps even the Finns would have continued fighting, if they received a couple of thousand more AT weapons and a dozen more assault guns? Or if they didn’t the Germans perhaps would have been able to bring their Lapland army back home and let them join the fighting in Romania?
...
As many have already stated, this scenario is highly hypothetical, but I'm always ready to take part when Finland is being involved... ;-)

The Finnish army at the end of summer 1944 was at it's all time strongest. The Red army had been stopped and there were enough troops, modern arms and supplies for the time being. There were even plans for Finnish counter attacks. The reason why Finland still signed the very unfavourable peace treaty was simple - the good situation could not last for ever.

Although the soviet troops assigned for conquering Finland in summer 1944 had failed and were consumed, Russia could have eventually renewed the attack (but only by risking the race to Berlin). The USSR was getting seemingly endless flow of arms and supplies from the West. Germany on the other hand was going to lose the war and the arms and supplies from there would have dried up in months. Without them it would have been impossible for Finland to continue fighting.

For Finland to be able to continue the war two conditions should have been fulfilled: Germany should have been able to make peace with the West and the West should have stopped the support for soviets - both the political and material.
Okay, so considering the bad situation Germany was in, it was common sense of the Finns to step out, while they had something to bargain with. At the same time the Soviet conditions for a peace treaty were pretty harsh and humiliating, especially for a lot of good and brave officiers of the Finnish army. I was amazed to read how strong the influence of the Finnish communists in Finland became after the war and how many Finns were procecuted or had to fled the country. But what if the Finns would have seen a stronger Germany, that could put up more of a fight in the east? Wouldn't it have been tempting to wait for the winter to come and see how things turned out? Especially if Germany could deliver more equipment to the Finnish forces? Perhaps Finnish counterattacks could make the position of Finland stronger and force Stalin to soften the conditions for a peace treaty?


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Karelia
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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#33

Post by Karelia » 03 Oct 2015, 00:22

Aragorn1963 wrote:
Okay, so considering the bad situation Germany was in, it was common sense of the Finns to step out, while they had something to bargain with. At the same time the Soviet conditions for a peace treaty were pretty harsh and humiliating, especially for a lot of good and brave officiers of the Finnish army. I was amazed to read how strong the influence of the Finnish communists in Finland became after the war and how many Finns were procecuted or had to fled the country.
It was not only common sense, getting peace was crucial for the survival of Finland.

The relatively short period (1944-48, know in Finland as "the years of danger") of the strong influence of the communists was in a way understandable. The peace felt like a total defeat, despite of the heave casualties and sacrifices. Although Finland was not occupied - thanks to successful defence victories - the country was nevertheless under the mercy of the soviets. The new line of the official policy (demanded by the soviets) dictated, that the actions, decisions and policies of the previous governments were to be seen as wrong and as reasons for the wars.

(Too) many people believed these official lies and thought, that totally different way - communism - must be better. After (only) one parliamentary term many thankfully realized, that communism was still not the answer. Although the communists were the single biggest political party during that period, they luckily never got (even close to) the majority. After that they still stayed as a large party, but election after election their share got smaller and smaller.

The USSR demanded in the peace treaty, that all "war criminals" and "war culprits" were to be sentenced. That's why absurdly many Finnish patriots had to be jailed to fulfill the soviet demands. Very few were really guilty for anything. Very telling is, that most of the sentenced returned to their normal public lives after their prison times.
Aragorn1963 wrote: But what if the Finns would have seen a stronger Germany, that could put up more of a fight in the east? Wouldn't it have been tempting to wait for the winter to come and see how things turned out? Especially if Germany could deliver more equipment to the Finnish forces? Perhaps Finnish counterattacks could make the position of Finland stronger and force Stalin to soften the conditions for a peace treaty?
Just "stronger" Germany wouldn't have been enough. Germany losing the war was already clear for most Finns with the knowledge by 1943, latest 1944. There should have been something game changing, which would have ensured the Finns that Germany was not going to lose after all and was able to defeat the soviets.

Germany just hanging on longer before the evident loss wouldn't have changed anything for Finland. Just continuing fighting without any hope of gaining anything would have been pointless.

On the other hand Finland was able to make peace after summer 1944 just because Germany was then weak enough. Before it was not possible, because Germany was too strong, after that it might have been too late, since the soviets would have been able to attack Finland also from Estonia. So - if Germany would have been stronger for longer, also Finland might have been forced to continue fighting longer!

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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#34

Post by Aragorn1963 » 03 Oct 2015, 10:32

Very interesting information, Karelia, thank you for that. You did mention that the Finns even thought about launching counterattacks. Can you tell me more details please? And how would you estimate their chances on success?

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Karelia
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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#35

Post by Karelia » 20 Oct 2015, 18:01

Sorry for the wait...

Unfortunately I don't have any further details about the possible counterattack plans, presumably done by some local commanders. Most likely the HQ saw no sense in any counterattacks, since they would have only meant further casualties without any permanent results. After all the Germans were losing on all fronts and Finland was searching for peace. Re-activating the already cooled down situation wouldn't have served that purpose.

Presumably the Finnish counterattacks might have been limited successes. The soviet forces were worn down and some of the best troops had already been transported to Estonia. The Finnish troops on the other hand were reinforced and had received modern war material. But those successes wouldn't have made any difference - which the HQ was well aware of.

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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#36

Post by valtonen » 31 Jan 2016, 11:40

The counterattack plans - or actually defence plans - were carried out in the form of the famous "Asekätkentä" - weapon hiding. A lot of weapons and other supplies were hidden with the aid of the army. Then one day a communist in the town of Oulu decided that he needs to perform an act of revenge to a former friend. He went to the Allied Control Comission (joint Soviet-British office, mostly soviet any way) and tattletaled, that his "friend" was involved in illegal weapon hiding. This started the biggest Putsch ever ecperienced in Finland. Thousands were arrested and jailed for relatively short terms. No one was shot as capital punishment had been abolished by that time. Even more left immediately to Sweden and beyond. The fear of soviet occupation or at least soviet- style show trials and other things was immident.
Quite many former soldiers ended up in the US army, so called Marttinen's men. The made fantastic careers especially in winter warfare. At least one of them retired as a colonel.

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Re: Germany could concentrate on the eastern front autumn 1944?

#37

Post by Karelia » 01 Feb 2016, 06:25

The counter attack plans I was referring to were different ones, planned to take place when the war against the soviets was still going on in the late summer 1944.

The weapon hiding "scandal" - it was allegedly against the soviet dictated peace treaty - was most likely one of the biggest reasons why the USSR rejected her occupation plans. It showed, that the Finns were ready, willing and able to continue fighting, if necessary. Why get into presumably endless guerilla war against the Finns, when things were going well enough for the soviets anyway?

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