What If Hitler Went For the Caucasus in 1941?

[cimon_unhipocrisy]

DoctorVictory,

I was thinking of reading the entire lot before answering here,but having seen your contention in post 24 "that everybody agrees"

I say to you that there is already someone above who hinds a small part of the problem and I will try to unfold it step by step so that to show to you that the plan is impossible,for three main reasons:a) as an ex-staff myself I look at first for a Staff plan as a basis for a working argument that could support your contention and I see that such plan had never been drafted;that is very serious! to clarify,Hitler,in June 1940 and when the second phase of the battle of France was about to start(5th June)he gave a direct top secret
order to general Friedrich Paulus to prepare plans for the invasion of the Soviet Union.It took him the best part of a year to finalize his plans which I have considered inadequate and dangerous,but that is another topic.Now obvioulsly you don't have that time...any futrther movement of a considerable number of units south would have been noted by STAVKA and met it accordingly.
b) unfortunately you need the army to do that BUT you don't have it:why? because in 1940-41 the German army was a WWI army with the few exceptions of mobile units and its FEW Panzers(out of 146 divisions invading USSR in 1941,mobility ratio was no more than 12-13%)Hitler had the tendency to create new Panzers but his habit was catastrophic because he didn't have the equippment for it,depriving at the same time the existing divisions with adequate replacements....the Germans looked to the booty of the west and especially Dunkirk to supply the new divisions with vehicles,which were not altogether suitable for the rough Russian roads and the Russian terrain.At the same time they had to drop the average number of fighting tanks per division
to 150 from 250 to meet the needs of the new divisions,a number which is the absolute minimum for Panzers which in that way were facing dangers from attrition from terrain and battle with the constant danger of underperforming due to loss of their "punch" power.So how do you get to Bacu with Panzers still having their small complement of tanks at a reasonable level? well,you don't! and
c)how do you get there and not get anihilated by distance,terrain,weather conditions and last but not least,enemy forces...
it would be highly likely that more than half of the tracked vehicles would be strewn along the way.
Your next problem is distance and flanks.A poster above(the someone I mentioned above) writes that the distance between Rostov
and Bacu is 1117 klm;I thank him and ask you what is the distance between Kiev(which I would assume it to be the concentration place,on north-south axis)and Rostov? It is proved repeatedly that the supply flow breaks down at a maximum distance of 1000 klm,what then?
In such an empty space in the steppe the panzers cannot rely for flank protection by infantry which evidently would put a spanner in their wheels with their slow advance...so what do you do? you don't have the means;and you have on your flank a great industrial centre on the Volga which is also a centre of communications,Stalingrad.What will you do to nutrualize it? will you bring south the 4th army of von Kluge,to create a barrier in the south east of the city and place the Volga piers under the fire of the German heavy artillery?and what will you replace the fourth army with in the centre? Surprising enough,the 11th army in Crimea would be a good flank for the army groups heading south east(and you will need two army groups...)and who protects your rear communication flanks? you have nothing and nothing for Crimea unless you believe that German allies(Romanians?) can fill the gap
which I seriously doubt...

Thank you for your patience!
regards,

[BDV]

Hello,

I had thought Erich Marks was the originator of the plan to invade Soviet Russia.

[alltoes]

What were the chances Turkey would allow Axis troop movement through Turkey? Or Turkey joining the Axis. I understand Turkey's position, especially after WW1. Turkey IMHO were in the same position as Spain.
For example, if Axis occupied Egypt and the Sinai in 1940 or 1941, or even 1942. Germany makes a number of offers (e.g. Cyprus and/or parts of Syria).
If German troops were on the Turkish border in Greece and demanded transit rights.
IMHO the only means of occupying or decreasing Baku was directly through Turkey or bombing from northern Caucus.
If Stalingrad was attacked differently in 1942, hence winning the battle, it may have been possible to attack south in 1943. But this proposition was probably like winning the lottery.

[BDV]

No can do. Turkish infrastructure cannot handle the load. Plus Kurds will start agitating immediately under effective British instigation.

[thaddeus_c]

No can do. Turkish infrastructure cannot handle the load. Plus Kurds will start agitating immediately under effective British instigation.

that works both ways (Germans, though allied with Turkey in the past, had Kurds as Aryan in their conception of things IIRC? like Persian/Iranians?)

could have threatened to support uprisings? "we may not be able to hold back our allies the Bulgarians when the Kurdish peoples start a revolt" (along those lines)

(certainly Germany would PREFER Turkey as an ally over an ad-hoc force though)

all Turkey would need to do is allow use of airfields at Van to allow attacks on Soviet shipping in Caspian, perhaps offer up a "volunteer" force similar to what Spain did. Germany could offer (present day) Azerbaijan in a post-war scenario (really the sun, the moon and the stars, it would be such a resource for Turkey.)

to why Germany would offer ANY deal to Turkey, they would be the ones tamping down all the conflicts and rivalries in post-war, something that, although they might not be able to project power outside their borders, they had proved able to do.

[BDV]

Surprising enough, the 11th army in Crimea would be a good flank for the army groups heading south east(and you will need two army groups...)and who protects your rear communication flanks? you have nothing and nothing for Crimea unless you believe that German allies(Romanians?) can fill the gap

Not surprising, actually. The ever reliable Wikipedia :roll: states that the 11th Army was supposed to drive straight to Rostov-on-Don. But then the forward falling Erich Manstein* got a hold of it and detoured to his "brilliant" coup de main on Sevastopol, with the known historical results (cine alearga dupa doi iepuri). This would mean that Lower Donets/Rostov are at a minimum the german starting line for 1942, possibly the Yeya River line.

Without getting strung out, and with the extra battle fatigue and casualties, and with the extra time to dig in, 3rd and 4th Romanian, backed by the Italians and the Romanian Tank Division and whatever german units pulled back for R'n'R should have little trouble securing the Perekop Isthmus and the adjacent coast. That position would be much harder to attack by amphibious assault than the exposed Kerch Isthmus (a hop skip and a jump from Novorossyisk) with the historical debacle suffered by the overstretched Axis troops there.

which I seriously doubt...

Why? Pe ce te bazezi?


_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
* who after the Soltsy debacle should've been elbow polishing tables at the OKH

[Gooner1]

all Turkey would need to do is allow use of airfields at Van to allow attacks on Soviet shipping in Caspian, perhaps offer up a "volunteer" force similar to what Spain did. Germany could offer (present day) Azerbaijan in a post-war scenario (really the sun, the moon and the stars, it would be such a resource for Turkey.)

The downside for Turkey in this is Konstantinople would now be a Russian city.

[cimon_unhipocrisy]

BDV,

The originator of the plan was none else but Hitler himself;as a matter of trust(usual Hitler practice) he entrusted the materialization of the plan to Friedrich Paulus.
(I personally consider general Marcks too intelligent and independently minded to have produced such a plan,out of reality,but made to please his master...)

[BDV]

"thaddeus_c":
all Turkey would need to do is allow use of airfields at Van to allow attacks on Soviet shipping in Caspian, perhaps offer up a "volunteer" force similar to what Spain did. Germany could offer (present day) Azerbaijan in a post-war scenario (really the sun, the moon and the stars, it would be such a resource for Turkey.)

The downside for Turkey in this is Konstantinople would now be a Russian city.

Most likely Greek, and also I guess Winnie gets his "soft underbelly" wish. A Nazi Germany that would go to the lengths needed to conive Turkey into joining, is a side that pays much more respect to Soviet Russia than historically. As a result, Russia would be in a much worse shape than historical, come 1943-1944.

[alltoes]

No can do. Turkish infrastructure cannot handle the load.

What about the Turkish railroad system? How long would it take for Turkey with German assistance to build a better railroad system? Of course, this would have to be done in a way for the Russians not to see it's true design. If Turkish-German "secret" agreement made in April '41, it is possible to create a favorable RR system by August '41 to affect bombing from Eastern Turkey or even invade through Armenia. IIRC, the Russian RR was repaired and converted from Poland to Smolensk in 6 weeks.
It amazes me why Germany did not stir up "occupied" patriotism. That is, create revolts in Uzbekistan, Georgia, Azerbajan, etc. This would have an affect of political divide and conquer. With these countries vowing their independence, Russia would not be able to a) draft as much manpower b) drain manpower to fight against uprising c) drain supplies to fight against uprising.
IMHO Germany deciding period of winning and creating a 1,000 year Reich was between July 1, 1940 and December 1, 1941.
Pulling Turkey into this conflict either as an active participant or inactive (transit rights) could allow attacking the "soft underbelly" of Russia. The elimination of Baku would seriously hamper Russia.

[BDV]

It amazes me why Germany did not stir up "occupied" patriotism. That is, create revolts in Uzbekistan, Georgia, Azerbajan, etc. This would have an affect of political divide and conquer. With these countries vowing their independence, Russia would not be able to a) draft as much manpower b) drain manpower to fight against uprising c) drain supplies to fight against uprising.

But they did. However on one hand those lands had undergone repeated rounds of Russian Bolshevik pacification and purges, and on the other hand germans were not very good at that, too paranoid-insecure and too invested in the supremacist delusion.

[ljadw]

There were NO Turkish railroads arriving on the border with the SU .

This has been discussed on this forum .

[thaddeus_c]

back to the OP, what if Hitler went for the Caucasus in 1941? if Hitler was willing to sign a pact with USSR (Molotov-Ribbentrop) and later declare war on U.S. to gain Japanese support he certainly was ABLE to strike a deal with Turkey.

Turkey would have put Germany adjacent to the Baku oilfields (yes it would have been virtually impossible to move troops over the mountains BUT Stalin cannot count on this, it complicates their strategies.)

Germany COULD bomb Soviet oilfields from Van (or to be precise bomb their Caspian Sea shipping.)

Germany had something like 400k Turkish speaking troops captured/defected from Soviet forces, Turkish army officers could have supervised this force, tried to stir uprisings all the way to the eastern Chinese border.

[LWD]

back to the OP, what if Hitler went for the Caucasus in 1941? if Hitler was willing to sign a pact with USSR (Molotov-Ribbentrop) and later declare war on U.S. to gain Japanese support he certainly was ABLE to strike a deal with Turkey. ...

That would still depend a great deal on the Turks and they weren't particularly interested. Indeed I suspect one of the reasons they eventually got in the war was to prevent "accidents" from happening near the end. The military equipment and political points gained without the need to commit forces didn't hurt either.

[BDV]

back to the OP, what if Hitler went for the Caucasus in 1941? if Hitler was willing to sign a pact with USSR (Molotov-Ribbentrop) and later declare war on U.S. to gain Japanese support he certainly was ABLE to strike a deal with Turkey.

Well, Adolf and Ribentropp failed to get Franco in the war, failed to convince Mannerheim to cross the Svir, could not get a firm committment to war from Horthy, and drove Teleki to suicide. The chances they get Kemal to do anything against his wishes are vanishingly small, in particular given the neglect of Turkish-German relationship (no-one to blame for this, misfortunes of both countries put such niceties on the backburner). Gotta also count that VIchy France would be particularly unhappy about any Turkish moves into Levant.

Now, with proper aggitation and with bribery of high ranking officials, should Kemal die of a mysterious illness, pushing Turkey into the war may be doable. But that achievment is simply beyond the capabilities of the Schicklgruber-Ribentropp* duo.

________________________________________________________________________________________________
*aptly described once as belonging "to the category of Germans who are a disaster for their country."