Mussolini Dies, May 1st, 1940 in a Bizarre Pretzel Incident

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
Keitel
Member
Posts: 57
Joined: 04 Oct 2012, 11:48

Mussolini Dies, May 1st, 1940 in a Bizarre Pretzel Incident

#1

Post by Keitel » 18 Mar 2014, 02:00

As the tin says, the Duce chokes to death on a pretzel while flying a plane which promptly crashes and blows up, because if you got to die, you got to die right.

Now the neat stuff. The King of Italy sighs in relief and then lets the Fascist Council run over him. Luckily for Italy, the other leaders of the Fascist Party aren't jumping into the mess of WW2, nope they are passing. They have enough on their plate.

On the other hand, the Italians need trade with Germany to keep afloat and the Germans need a way around the British Blockade, so Italian Merchant ships serve as middle men. Due to its treaty web with Japan,this means Italy also help Japan skirt the US and British Sanctions later on.

Nothing really changes on the French Front and BoB still goes on, but the big changes come in 1941.

Germany does not need to invade the Balkans, so its transport fleet isn't shot to hell in Crete, it doesn't lose the equivalent of a Panzer Division worth of Tanks, Rommel isn't running around in the desert, and an entire Luftflotte isn't in the Mediterranean. It also doesn't waste fuel and ammo in a Balkan's campaign.

This also means Hitler doesn't see Air Drops as past their prime, which means Airborne Assaults planned for Barbarossa will go ahead and Barbarossa itself starts on June 22nd as OTL due to the need to let swollen rivers drop and Polish Airfields dry out.

How does this ultimately end?

User avatar
BDV
Member
Posts: 3704
Joined: 10 Apr 2009, 17:11

Re: Bizarre Pretzel Incident

#2

Post by BDV » 18 Mar 2014, 15:47

Now, for the not so neat stuff (for Germany, that is).

Without Italy in the war, the need for Britain's choking a bitch is less, much less. Ergo, no Mers-El-Kebir. No repatriation of french soldiers, either. On the contrary, they get gang-pressed into forming the core of the Free French Army. "Liberation" of french colonies by British Empyr forces starts in Fall 1940 and ends by Spring 1941. Case Anton may or may not happen, but then a Free French landing party liberates Corsica. With the "Free French" Navy holding court in the Mediteraneean, a much smaller british presence is needed there.

That influences the UBoat campaign (negatively, for Germany), and Japan actions (negatively for Germany, as odds of Japan keeping squealing like a stuck pig and not actually doing anything, are much higher).

Now for the real fun part.

There's a bunch of British soldiers with nothing to do (except really impress on the Japanese the lack of wisdom of a move against British and Free French interests, that is). Unleashed they will be against the channel islands (Channel Island Campaign, July 1941?) and the long, long Norwegian coast, where airfields are few and far between, but Commonwealth invasion forces enjoy seaborne tactical airborne support.

The quiet time Nazi Germany enjoyed in Western Europe July 1940 - June 1944 (with the exception of the Dieppe stunt) will be no more.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion


Keitel
Member
Posts: 57
Joined: 04 Oct 2012, 11:48

Re: Bizarre Pretzel Incident

#3

Post by Keitel » 19 Mar 2014, 14:13

BDV wrote:Now, for the not so neat stuff (for Germany, that is).

Without Italy in the war, the need for Britain's choking a bitch is less, much less. Ergo, no Mers-El-Kebir. No repatriation of french soldiers, either. On the contrary, they get gang-pressed into forming the core of the Free French Army. "Liberation" of french colonies by British Empyr forces starts in Fall 1940 and ends by Spring 1941. Case Anton may or may not happen, but then a Free French landing party liberates Corsica. With the "Free French" Navy holding court in the Mediteraneean, a much smaller british presence is needed there.
Uh that would bring Vichy on the side of the Axis and the British botched badly their 1940-41 campaigns against Vichy French territories. The British still have to keep a large force in the Mediterranean in case the Italians or Vichy side with Germany.

Going for Corsica would be doubly stupid as only Carrier Aircraft could support the invasion and the British Carriers of that time used biplanes and didn't have many of them to begin with. The Germans use far more modern planes and can land troops and supplies far more easily than the British. This can only end in sunk British Carriers and the loss of scarce cadre to overhaul Britain's carrier wings.
That influences the UBoat campaign (negatively, for Germany), and Japan actions (negatively for Germany, as odds of Japan keeping squealing like a stuck pig and not actually doing anything, are much higher).
Not really as it took well into 1943 for the Royal Navy to get its act together and start containing the U-boat threat decisively.
There's a bunch of British soldiers with nothing to do (except really impress on the Japanese the lack of wisdom of a move against British and Free French interests, that is). Unleashed they will be against the channel islands (Channel Island Campaign, July 1941?) and the long, long Norwegian coast, where airfields are few and far between, but Commonwealth invasion forces enjoy seaborne tactical airborne support.
The Channel Islands are close enough to France that German Field Artillery can add its fire support to prevent a landing attempt. Then there is the Luftwaffe to consider. So no, a Channel Islands Campaign is a dead ender till the British can defeat the Luftwaffe.

Norway is also a dead end. One the British Carriers are still using Biplanes which are no match for the Luftwaffe Fighters, and due to the terrain, the Luftwaffe can safely operate out of range from British guns and hit any invasion attempt with impunity.

Finally, the British simply lack the transports and doctrine to conduct a successful invasion at this time period and botched far too many of them OTL.

User avatar
BDV
Member
Posts: 3704
Joined: 10 Apr 2009, 17:11

Re: Bizarre Pretzel Incident

#4

Post by BDV » 19 Mar 2014, 17:21

Keitel wrote:Uh that would bring Vichy on the side of the Axis and the British botched badly their 1940-41 campaigns against Vichy French territories. The British still have to keep a large force in the Mediterranean in case the Italians or Vichy side with Germany.
Vichy did not side with the Axis, to historically, given Catapult. How do the germans sweeten the pot now? Anything but complete French soveregnity, I'm afraid won't do.

Going for Corsica would be doubly stupid as only Carrier Aircraft could support the invasion and the British Carriers of that time used biplanes and didn't have many of them to begin with. The Germans use far more modern planes and can land troops and supplies far more easily than the British. This can only end in sunk British Carriers and the loss of scarce cadre to overhaul Britain's carrier wings.
Assets in Corsica are not in Russia. And vice-versa. The Sea Hurricane entered service 1941. Your proposal implies a purely airborne german assault on Corsica, followed by exclusively airsupplied german garrison in Corsica (as Regia Marina is rusting peacefullly at Taranto so the RN and the Free Maritime Nationale are free to blockade both southern France and Corsica).

Not really as it took well into 1943 for the Royal Navy to get its act together and start containing the U-boat threat decisively.
As it had been scampering to contain the Regia and the IJN. These two "distractions" are not present in the ATL.

The Channel Islands are close enough to France that German Field Artillery can add its fire support to prevent a landing attempt.
No, not really.

Then there is the Luftwaffe to consider. So no, a Channel Islands Campaign is a dead ender till the British can defeat the Luftwaffe.
Luftwaffe (well, what is left of it after Weserubung, Fall Gelb, Fall Rot, BoB, and Blitz) is/should be somewhat busy dealing with the intransigent Soviets.

Luftwaffe can safely operate out of range from British guns and hit any invasion attempt with impunity.
How ca LW hit the invasion forces outof the range of the AA assets of the invasion forces?

Finally, the British simply lack the transports and doctrine to conduct a successful invasion at this time period and botched far too many of them OTL.
Yes, because they were fighting an extremely expensive war in the desert. And while British learned from their mistakes, the commando operations even at that time, were fairly successful.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

Keitel
Member
Posts: 57
Joined: 04 Oct 2012, 11:48

Re: Bizarre Pretzel Incident

#5

Post by Keitel » 19 Mar 2014, 18:47

BDV wrote:Vichy did not side with the Axis, to historically, given Catapult. How do the germans sweeten the pot now? Anything but complete French soveregnity, I'm afraid won't do.
Attacked directly it would, and Vichy did side with Germany, albeit a puppet form after the Germans got done with it.
Assets in Corsica are not in Russia. And vice-versa. The Sea Hurricane entered service 1941. Your proposal implies a purely airborne german assault on Corsica, followed by exclusively airsupplied german garrison in Corsica (as Regia Marina is rusting peacefullly at Taranto so the RN and the Free Maritime Nationale are free to blockade both southern France and Corsica)
The same situation was present at Crete, guess what? The Royal Navy ran. Also the Sea Hurricanes were first deployed on CAM Ships and Furious did not receive any till late July and even then in small numbers. In addition, the Luftwaffe was starting to get better at sinking ships and would have the southern French Coast to stage its bombers from. Compounding the British and French problem is the poor British AA armament at this stage of the war.

Also the British still have to keep an eye on Italy as it can never be too sure of its intentions.
As it had been scampering to contain the Regia and the IJN. These two "distractions" are not present in the ATL.

Uh, it will still have to tie up significant forces watching those two because again, they can never be too sure they won't jump them.
No, not really.
Tell that to the British then who abandoned them.
Then there is the Luftwaffe to consider. So no, a Channel Islands Campaign is a dead ender till the British can defeat the Luftwaffe.
Luftwaffe (well, what is left of it after Weserubung, Fall Gelb, Fall Rot, BoB, and Blitz) is/should be somewhat busy dealing with the intransigent Soviets.
Luftflottee III is still a formidable force in its own right while Luftflottee II goes east.
How ca LW hit the invasion forces outof the range of the AA assets of the invasion forces?
The British AA of that early war period was an utter joke and largely ineffective, using the wrong guns, too few of them, and without a proper fire control system that took till 1943 to correct.
Yes, because they were fighting an extremely expensive war in the desert. And while British learned from their mistakes, the commando operations even at that time, were fairly successful.
And also had to garrison its Empire which it largely failed to mobilize and served as a net drain, replace large stocks of equipment, and find gold to pay for its expenditures. That is not going to change much.

As for the Commando Raids, please, there is a big difference in harassment operations and actually staging a successful Amphibious Operation against an unbroken Luftwaffe.

User avatar
BDV
Member
Posts: 3704
Joined: 10 Apr 2009, 17:11

Re: Bizarre Pretzel Incident

#6

Post by BDV » 19 Mar 2014, 22:59

Keitel wrote:Attacked directly it would, and Vichy did side with Germany, albeit a puppet form after the Germans got done with it.
Vichy was attacked directly, and did not respond with DOW or joning the Axis. Nothing short of full sovereignity will do for French IMO, taking into account historical behaviour.

The same situation was present at Crete, guess what?
The situation was NOT present at Crete. See Regia, Marina.

Also the Sea Hurricanes were first deployed on CAM Ships and Furious did not receive any till late July and even then in small numbers.


Backpedalling, backpedalling.

Also the British still have to keep an eye on Italy as it can never be too sure of its intentions.
That's what La Maritime Nationale Libre and a small British squadron would be for. While keeping an eye/pressure on Italy, they can engage in a bit or two of muscle flexing, here and there.

Tell that to the British then who abandoned them.
What does that have to do with the range of german field artillery, which was not suffiecient, historically?

The British AA of that early war period was an utter joke and largely ineffective, using the wrong guns, too few of them, and without a proper fire control system that took till 1943 to correct.
Not less effective than any other, including german AFAIK. Both the pyrrhic character of German victory in Merkur, and the survival of Malta were directly related to Empyr troops' AA prowess.

And also had to garrison its Empire which it largely failed to mobilize and served as a net drain, replace large stocks of equipment, and find gold to pay for its expenditures. That is not going to change much.
... but the cost of the desert campaign does. As in "it becomes ZERO."

Luftflottee III is still a formidable force in its own right while Luftflottee II goes east.
It lost something like half of its Do217 in the Dieppe Raid airbattle, AFAIK. Without North Africa, Britain can stage 4-8 "Dieppe"-like raids every summer, rotating the attacker nationality, english, scottish, canadian, aussie, new zealander, south african, free polish, possibly indian/irish even dutch and jewish.


As for the Commando Raids, please, there is a big difference in harassment operations and actually staging a successful Amphibious Operation against an unbroken Luftwaffe.
There is a continuum of actions from small, medium, to large size unit actions. British can, are willing, and without North Africa can afford to learn from mistakes. Three or four Dieppe like "victories" and Luftflotte III is no more.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

User avatar
LWD
Member
Posts: 8618
Joined: 21 Sep 2005, 22:46
Location: Michigan

Re: Bizarre Pretzel Incident

#7

Post by LWD » 19 Mar 2014, 23:27

BDV wrote:
Keitel wrote:...The British AA of that early war period was an utter joke and largely ineffective, using the wrong guns, too few of them, and without a proper fire control system that took till 1943 to correct.
Not less effective than any other, including german AFAIK. Both the pyrrhic character of German victory in Merkur, and the survival of Malta were directly related to Empyr troops' AA prowess.
...
I don't think that's correct. Indeed one can see how effective British naval AA was by examining the details of the actions off Crete. The RN tended to take very few losses as long as the ships were up to speed, had plenty of AA ammo, and weren't encoumbered by large numbers of evacuees. Several ships were lost when they ran out of or very low on AA ammo. One must remember that the primary purpose of AA guns is not to shoot down oppsoing aircraft but to protect the vessels that they are mounted on or are in convoy with. The British Empires naval AA was adequate in the early war years at least when faced with units with little training on how to attack naval units. The first clear indication that it was becoming inadequate IMO would have been the loss of Force Z.

User avatar
Kingfish
Member
Posts: 3348
Joined: 05 Jun 2003, 17:22
Location: USA

Re: Bizarre Pretzel Incident

#8

Post by Kingfish » 20 Mar 2014, 01:29

LWD wrote: The British Empires naval AA was adequate in the early war years at least when faced with units with little training on how to attack naval units.
If that were true then Britain would have never ceded the southern and central Norwegian waters to Luftwaffe control during Weserubung.
The gods do not deduct from a man's allotted span the hours spent in fishing.
~Babylonian Proverb

User avatar
LWD
Member
Posts: 8618
Joined: 21 Sep 2005, 22:46
Location: Michigan

Re: Mussolini Dies, May 1st, 1940 in a Bizarre Pretzel Incid

#9

Post by LWD » 20 Mar 2014, 14:42

Given the number of sorties how many combat vessels were sunk during that period? In any case just because the AA was "adequate" doesn't me you want to subject your naval forces to continuous air attack unless there is something worthwhile to be gained from it. US AA in 45 was quite good, especially when compared to early war AA, yet they still took damage and didn't linger off the coast of Japan when raiding the same.

User avatar
BDV
Member
Posts: 3704
Joined: 10 Apr 2009, 17:11

British and Commonwealth AA

#10

Post by BDV » 20 Mar 2014, 14:52

My comment was related to general AA ability, not naval AA per se, although that was fair, too. The hand wringing about the Crete evacuation losses shows the (high) standard of performance that was actually expected.

At Merkur, a plane with the invasion map was shot down by Aussie forces, and was a chief reason why defenders were able to inflict the toll they did, AFAIK. In Malta too, AA was the chief defensive weapon. Without Italian entry in the war, all the troops, AA, AT, tanks, food, and fuel, and medical supplies used in the Mediterranean Theater are at Britain's disposal for harassment action against German Europe's 6000 km coast, per the public and publicized policy of the British Governement of the time:
what is our policy? I will say: It is to wage war, by sea, land and air, with all our might and with all the strength that God can give us;
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

User avatar
Kingfish
Member
Posts: 3348
Joined: 05 Jun 2003, 17:22
Location: USA

Re: Mussolini Dies, May 1st, 1940 in a Bizarre Pretzel Incid

#11

Post by Kingfish » 21 Mar 2014, 02:19

LWD wrote: In any case just because the AA was "adequate" doesn't me you want to subject your naval forces to continuous air attack unless there is something worthwhile to be gained from it.
I would think establishing complete naval superiority in Norwegian waters, which the RN was quite capable of doing, would have rated very high on the list of worthwhile gains. Especially when the close to 2/3 of the KM surface fleet was either sunk, damaged and headed for drydock, or bottled up at Narvik. Had the Luftwaffe not been as serious a threat the RN would have had no problem initiating Op Hammer, or providing proper support for Op Sickle. In fact, it was only at Narvik that the RN was able to operate in relative safety, but that too changed once the Luftwaffe began flying from airfields near Trondheim.
The gods do not deduct from a man's allotted span the hours spent in fishing.
~Babylonian Proverb

thaddeus_c
Member
Posts: 816
Joined: 22 Jan 2014, 04:16

Re: Mussolini Dies, May 1st, 1940 in a Bizarre Pretzel Incid

#12

Post by thaddeus_c » 22 Mar 2014, 01:32

the scenario that nothing changes regarding the invasion of France and 1941 invasion of USSR seems farfetched with a neutral Italy.

that would leave the entire "Stresa Front" at Germany's back while they attempt to conquer USSR, a neutral Italy which could declare war at any moment, a half conquered France, and a fight them on the beaches GB.

most likely France gets occupied completely and alliance with USSR continues, probably they join the Axis.

User avatar
BDV
Member
Posts: 3704
Joined: 10 Apr 2009, 17:11

Re: Mussolini Dies, May 1st, 1940 in a Bizarre Pretzel Incid

#13

Post by BDV » 22 Mar 2014, 03:43

thaddeus_c wrote: ...
most likely France gets occupied completely and alliance with USSR continues, probably they join the Axis.
Tzarigrad, eternal dream of Czars, here come them wild eyed Russians!


P.S.
Without the Vichy compromise, L'Empire would go FreeFrench in 1940, or at the start of Case Anton at a minimum.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

User avatar
LWD
Member
Posts: 8618
Joined: 21 Sep 2005, 22:46
Location: Michigan

Re: Mussolini Dies, May 1st, 1940 in a Bizarre Pretzel Incid

#14

Post by LWD » 24 Mar 2014, 15:01

Kingfish wrote:
LWD wrote: In any case just because the AA was "adequate" doesn't me you want to subject your naval forces to continuous air attack unless there is something worthwhile to be gained from it.
I would think establishing complete naval superiority in Norwegian waters, which the RN was quite capable of doing, would have rated very high on the list of worthwhile gains. Especially when the close to 2/3 of the KM surface fleet was either sunk, damaged and headed for drydock, or bottled up at Narvik.
Why? Given all the other tasks that the RN had what makes this so important.
Had the Luftwaffe not been as serious a threat the RN would have had no problem initiating Op Hammer, or providing proper support for Op Sickle. In fact, it was only at Narvik that the RN was able to operate in relative safety, but that too changed once the Luftwaffe began flying from airfields near Trondheim.
Saying that RN AA is adequate doesn't mean that the LW is not a threat. The LW did not demonstrate the ability in this time frame to stop the RN from acomplishing just about any mission it undertook. That doesn't mean that the RN would not sustain some damage. As with most military operations one still must take into account both the risks and the benefits.

User avatar
Kingfish
Member
Posts: 3348
Joined: 05 Jun 2003, 17:22
Location: USA

Re: Mussolini Dies, May 1st, 1940 in a Bizarre Pretzel Incid

#15

Post by Kingfish » 24 Mar 2014, 21:44

LWD wrote:Why? Given all the other tasks that the RN had what makes this so important.
Because preventing the enemy from improving it's strategic position is one of the most vitally important objective of any nation locked in a war. Germany's capture of Norway negated the British strategy of bottling up the KM in the Baltic, while at the same time safeguarded her northern flank. Also look at the effect it had on the Arctic convoys, or how it facilitated the breakout by Bismark and PE.
The LW did not demonstrate the ability in this time frame to stop the RN from acomplishing just about any mission it undertook.
I'm not sure how you come to that conclusion. Look at the reason(s) for the cancellation of Op Hammer, or the fiasco of the allied landings at Namsos and Ornes beach. These were operations that were severely effected by Luftwaffe intervention.
The gods do not deduct from a man's allotted span the hours spent in fishing.
~Babylonian Proverb

Post Reply

Return to “What if”