Churchill PM in 1936

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pugsville
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Re: Churchill PM in 1936

#16

Post by pugsville » 04 Apr 2014, 08:10

While the French had no obligation under the Czech treaty to declare war and fight to protect the Czechs from Germany, the French clearly thought there was a moral obligation to do so, it was not a pleasant prospect for them and they proceeded to find ways not to do so. The French repeated sought British advice in 1938, using British attitudes as a excuse to not do anything.

If Churchill was PM there is no doubt he would have advocated war to defend czech and pressed the French to do so. Successfully it's difficult to say the French government was pretty divided and lacked strong leadership. If the advent of war, like 1939/40 poor politician leadership coupled with poor military leadership (Gamelin!) is hardly conducive to good results.

The Germany army was smaller and less pre spared for war in 1938 than it was in 1939 (the Czech equipment was a great bonus to the German equipment stocks, the 38(t) was a significant addition to German forces in 1939/1940

While the Czechs were in a pretty bad situation they had a fairly good army and much better equipped than the Poles. The Germans would have to have covering forces in the west and against Poland. While German forces should have been enough to overwhelm the Czechs (two factors are very bad for the czechs, the borders after Austria joined Germany, and the air, the German airforce being much stronger than the Czech.) The Situation in the west would be massively bad for Germany, outnumbered massively 100 divisions, versus a covered force of 10. 10 to 1. A determined French offensive (given the French leadership political and military it's questionable). Polish intervention could also be a big factor (given the smaller forces they would face, but again the inability of the Poles and Czechs to work together could make this not certain,)

Given strong united leadership in 1939 a British-French-Czech-Polish alliance has very good chances for a relatively quick success against Germany, unfortunately it was generally lacking, changing the British PM to Churchill inly solves part of the problem, with equally strong leadership from France immediate success is very doubtful. But in any advent the Allies would be much better off than 1939.

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Re: Churchill PM in 1936

#17

Post by maltesefalcon » 05 Apr 2014, 00:29

Excellent response above.
Might I add that the Anglo French did not need access to Czechoslovakia directly to pose a threat.
France has a common border with Germany and a mass incursion into Germany via France would have forced a German reaction.

(It was a possibility in 1939 as well, but not well handled in real life.)


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Re: Churchill PM in 1936

#18

Post by ljadw » 05 Apr 2014, 05:18

Churchill or Chamberlain PM would make no difference at all,because

a)a German attack would automatically result in a DOW by Britain + France

b)such a DOW would not result in an immediate allied offensive ,but in a long war finishing with the defeat of Germany

c)there could be NO Anglo-French threat to Germany,but only a French threat,because,Britain had NO land forces capable to operate on the continent

conclusion : the presence of Churchill as PM would be irrelevant and his influence would be neglectable,not only vis à bis France,but also vis à vis Poland and CZ .These countries would only reckon with France (that could,after some weeks,mobilize 100 divisions;which does not mean that they could commit 100 divisions) and not with Britain that could mobilize 2 divisions and it would take weeks before they could be committed .

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wenty
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Re: Churchill PM in 1936

#19

Post by wenty » 06 Apr 2014, 03:23

It's worth also bearing in mind that Churchill was not always an especially popular man - if you go back to the World War I days when he was First Lord of the Admiralty and so forth, even more so. If World War II had never started in 1939 - and there is another big what if - and meek Neville Chamberlain hadn't had to resign his position in 1940, then there is a strong case for stating that Churchill would never have been British PM at all - first or second time.

Cheers,
Adam.

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Re: Churchill PM in 1936

#20

Post by maltesefalcon » 06 Apr 2014, 05:09

wenty wrote:It's worth also bearing in mind that Churchill was not always an especially popular man - if you go back to the World War I days when he was First Lord of the Admiralty and so forth, even more so. If World War II had never started in 1939 - and there is another big what if - and meek Neville Chamberlain hadn't had to resign his position in 1940, then there is a strong case for stating that Churchill would never have been British PM at all - first or second time.

Cheers,
Adam.
I would tend to agree with that.

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Re: Churchill PM in 1936

#21

Post by Pavel Novak » 06 Apr 2014, 14:52

Hi ljadw,
I agree with your points about military situation. I agree also with your remarks that even if Britain and France went to war for Czechoslovakia and they somehow win in long war there is no assurance that Czechoslovakia would be restored to original borders. This was after all known also to czechoslovak leadership.

But different british leader than Chamberlain could just not to start negotiation with Germany. Or he could with same result we do not know. Point is that without negotiations with Germany Hitler would most probably do exactly what he prepares to do - surprise attack on Czechoslovakia without warning or declaration of war --- this was what was planned by German political and military leadership. And such attack would probably indeed lead to war of Britain and France against Germany over Czechoslovakia and that is still different situation than what was in 1939 as there will be questions what would Poland do and what would Soviets do.

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Re: Churchill PM in 1936

#22

Post by ljadw » 06 Apr 2014, 20:00

Benesj would fight IF he received the needed help from Britain and France,which means if after a week of fighting an allied army would march through Germany,but ,Britain and France told him : forget it: eventually,an allied army will march through Germany ....after 5 years,and meanwhile Czechia will be ruled by the Gestapo,till the liberation. Benesj refused to be be liberated ,what he wanted was ; no war or a short (very short) war .Something Britain and France could not give him .

Before the allies would cross the Rhine,the Germans would be in Prague,Poland would do nothing (unless occupy Teschen,to prevent Germany from occupying it,and the SU would not /could not intervene : it had no common border with CZ.

Britain tried to prevent a war between CZ and Germany,because it was convinced that such a war would result in a war between Britain and Germany,and,although it was convinced that it would win this war,it also was convinced that the result of a British victory would be the end of the Empire .

And,why would it risk the survival of the Empire to prevent the secession of the SD ? Britain had consented to the secession of Ireland,to the independence of Egypt,it was willing to give India a dominion status,etc....

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redcoat
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Re: Churchill PM in 1936

#23

Post by redcoat » 10 Apr 2014, 20:15

wenty wrote:It's worth also bearing in mind that Churchill was not always an especially popular man - if you go back to the World War I days when he was First Lord of the Admiralty and so forth, even more so. If World War II had never started in 1939 - and there is another big what if - and meek Neville Chamberlain hadn't had to resign his position in 1940, then there is a strong case for stating that Churchill would never have been British PM at all - first or second time.

Cheers,
Adam.
Churchill wasn't even that popular with the ruling Conservative party in 1940, he only got the PM position because the man who everyone expected to replace Chamberlain, Halifax, turned down the offer to become PM.

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Re: Churchill PM in 1936

#24

Post by pugsville » 11 Apr 2014, 08:25

Churchill may have been unpopular with the tories, but he was respected. (very one was aware of his ability, many were aware of his faults). Halifax did not put himself forward because he believed Churchill was a better leader for the situation. Churchill only became PM because of a change in attitude of the leading group of politicians, that someone of his abilities was needed. Churchill's leadership and power did not relay on parties or political manouvering but upon the situation. Without the perception of desperate times calling for desperate measures it;s hard to see Churchill becoming PM. IF Churchill is PM in 1936, you would have to accept that there was a a perception that Nazi Germany had to be stopped much sooner.

Allowing the Nazi Regime to annex studentenland was to give in to intimidation. The Nazi regime would take it as a green light for further expansion by military force. Britain either fought in 1938 or 1939. The Situation was better in 1938.

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redcoat
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Re: Churchill PM in 1936

#25

Post by redcoat » 11 Apr 2014, 15:09

pugsville wrote:Allowing the Nazi Regime to annex studentenland was to give in to intimidation. The Nazi regime would take it as a green light for further expansion by military force. Britain either fought in 1938 or 1939. The Situation was better in 1938.
The problem with the Studatenland was that the majority of it's population wanted to join in a political union with Germany.
In 1938 the majority of the population's in the democracies of Britain and France were not prepared to go to war in order to prevent something that the people who lived there wanted.
In 1939, after German had broken the Munich agreement and attacked Poland, the people of the democracies had come to accept that Hitler had to be stopped.

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wenty
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Re: Churchill PM in 1936

#26

Post by wenty » 13 Apr 2014, 07:02

There's shades if the situation in the mid-1930's in the world at the moment, with the differences between the citizens of the Crimea, Ukraine and Russia.

As others have said, it's unlikely that regardless of who was PM in 1936, full scale war would have been declared to protect the independence of countries and territories whose citizens, to a degree, wanted to be part of the German empire.

It was only when it became clear that Hitler's aggression would continue as long as it was allowed to go unchecked that Chamberlain decided to go to war. So I would suggest that even if Churchill had been PM in 1936, it would have been at least 1938 and probably into 1939 before a move was made to start a war in any case.

Cheers,
Adam.

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Re: Churchill PM in 1936

#27

Post by Cantankerous » 25 Jan 2024, 04:59

If Churchill had been Prime Minister in 1936:
(1) There would have been an embargo on imports of goods from Nazi Germany
(2) British athletes would have been barred from participating in the 1936 Summer Olympics in Berlin
(3) He would have broken off diplomatic relations with Hitler's government and downgraded the British Embassy in Berlin to a British Interests Section with Switzerland or France as the protecting power
(4) He would have abrogated the Anglo-German Naval Agreement of 1935 and ordered a naval expansion plan involving the construction of 25 more surface vessels and 13 submarines

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Re: Churchill PM in 1936

#28

Post by ljadw » 25 Jan 2024, 12:13

Cantankerous wrote:
25 Jan 2024, 04:59
If Churchill had been Prime Minister in 1936:
(1) There would have been an embargo on imports of goods from Nazi Germany
(2) British athletes would have been barred from participating in the 1936 Summer Olympics in Berlin
(3) He would have broken off diplomatic relations with Hitler's government and downgraded the British Embassy in Berlin to a British Interests Section with Switzerland or France as the protecting power
(4) He would have abrogated the Anglo-German Naval Agreement of 1935 and ordered a naval expansion plan involving the construction of 25 more surface vessels and 13 submarines
Do you have proofs for your claims ?
Churchill praised Hitler in 1936 and Eden defended appeasement .
The truth is that Churchill would have done what Baldwin and Chamberlain did .
Besides :there was no possibility for Churchill to become PM in 1936 :his attitude during the abdication crisis had lost him all support in and outside the Commons .

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Re: Churchill PM in 1936

#29

Post by Terry Duncan » 26 Jan 2024, 08:32

Thread necromancy, topic locked.

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