Soviet Collapse: Was it Possible ?

[LWD]

??? That is frankly obsurd. What is there that prevents it? Certainly it wouldn't have been as massive as the historical landings but especially if the US and British forces used in Torch were employed against the continent there could have been a landing. Whether it would be in Normandy or somewhere else is an open question though.

Luftflotte 3 and the western command troops, backed by the finest in french heavy artillery. See Dieppe.

Dieppe was always intended as a raid and not an invasion. Whether or not they faced "the finest in French heavy artillery" would depend a lot on where the landing was conducted. Certainly they would have faced a stronger Luftwaffe presence. That doesn't mean that an invasion was impossible though by any means. An outright failure was somewhat more likely but I suspect that a lodgement could still have been made. The big problem IMO is that it's not clear that they would have had the force or the logistics to break out for some considerable time (and I think that was one of the rationals for going to North Africa instead). Clearly however none of this preculdes a landing.

[RichTO90]

Dieppe was always intended as a raid and not an invasion. Whether or not they faced "the finest in French heavy artillery" would depend a lot on where the landing was conducted.

Insofar as I can tell, 7. and 8./Artillerie-Regiment 302 had 10.5cm IFH, so not French or heavy.

2./Heeres-Küsten-Artillerie-Abteilung 770 at Berneval was Czech, not French - four 10.5cm Kanonen 35(t) - and not particularly "heavy".

Heeres-Küstenbatterie 813 at Varengeville, supposedly had six "15cm guns" and Heeres-Küstenbatterie 265 at Arques-la-Bataille supposedly had four "15cm guns", but I suspect those were actually French 155mm guns? Maybe those are the "finest"?

[BDV]

Dieppe was always intended as a raid and not an invasion. Whether or not they faced "the finest in French heavy artillery" would depend a lot on where the landing was conducted.

My comment was related to the german observation, (by way of La Wiki) that:

Conrad Haase considered it "incomprehensible" that a single division was expected to be able to overrun a German regiment that was supported by artillery

Per the
Military Intelligence Blunders and Cover-ups of John Hughes-Wilson:

The actual unit at Dieppe sampling the delights of the wine and French girls was in reality the 571st Infantry Regiment of the 302 Division, a category two division ... equipped with a motley mixture of horses bicycles, horses, captured french and czech guns.

So I stand by my statement that a Wally invasion in 1942 would have been confronted by Luftflotte 3 and the "finest" in french heavy artillery. That's where germans had those tubes, rusting peacefully on the Westwall, waiting to make somewhere between zero and miniscule contribution to defense in 1944, while artillery-poor german and auxilliary units were thoroughly slaughtered in Russia in '41, '42, and '43.

[LWD]

... So I stand by my statement that a Wally invasion in 1942 would have been confronted by Luftflotte 3 and the "finest" in french heavy artillery. That's where germans had those tubes, rusting peacefully on the Westwall, waiting to make somewhere between zero and miniscule contribution to defense in 1944, while artillery-poor german and auxilliary units were thoroughly slaughtered in Russia in '41, '42, and '43.

Well 42 would have been very questionable at least as far as the Atlantic coast of France or the low countries goes. Given when the forces would be available it isn't likely to occur until 43 due to weather. That leaves an invasion of the continent for late 42 or early 43 somewhere in the Med. I don't see those forces as being available there. Then there's the question of just how much the Germans can count on artillery support close to the coast given the amount of naval firepower that the western allies have available. Of course in the Med siezing some of the islands would probably be a well advised precursor and whether there's enough left after that to launch an invasion of the continent is an open question.

[RichTO90]

Conrad Haase considered it "incomprehensible" that a single division was expected to be able to overrun a German regiment that was supported by artillery

It actually was seven of the nine infantry battalions and two of the engineer field companies of an infantry division, reinforced by three Commandos and an Army tank battalion. So perhaps two-thirds of an infantry division. And since it was intended as a quick smash and grab, there was little point to even attempting to bring in a full division.

Per the
Military Intelligence Blunders and Cover-ups of John Hughes-Wilson:

The actual unit at Dieppe sampling the delights of the wine and French girls was in reality the 571st Infantry Regiment of the 302 Division, a category two division ... equipped with a motley mixture of horses bicycles, horses, captured french and czech guns.

So I stand by my statement that a Wally invasion in 1942 would have been confronted by Luftflotte 3 and the "finest" in french heavy artillery. That's where germans had those tubes, rusting peacefully on the Westwall, waiting to make somewhere between zero and miniscule contribution to defense in 1944, while artillery-poor german and auxilliary units were thoroughly slaughtered in Russia in '41, '42, and '43.

I'm afraid that is badly misunderstanding and miss-characterizing the defenders. It was not a "category two division", it was a bodenständige division of the 13. Welle. The "categorization" of divisions according to kampfwert was actually only formalized after Dieppe, but they likely would have been proud to be rated as II, which was "dependable division, proven in crisis situations".

Given that German AAR confirms the heavy coastal pieces were actually "15cm" and not French 155mm as i initially supposed where are these French "heavy guns"? The Canadians were hammered primarily by infantry firepower, not by artillery, according to the German AAR. It was machine guns, mortars, and the 37mm, 47mm, and 75mm direct fire guns of the beach defenses that did the deed. The three coastal batteries were primarily fighting for their own survival trying to repel the Commando assaults (six of the ten 15cmm guns were actually lost in the battle) and there is nothing in the German account to show that the two batteries of field artillery present played a significant role.

Certainly there was a lot of the ""finest" in french heavy artillery" present two years later in Normandy, but it doesn't seem to have done much then either. So you can stand by your statement all you wish, but unfortunately it is incorrect and really only muddies the waters as such generalizations generally do.

[BDV]

I'm afraid that is badly misunderstanding and miss-characterizing the defenders. It was not a "category two division", it was a bodenständige division of the 13. Welle. The "categorization" of divisions according to kampfwert was actually only formalized after Dieppe, but they likely would have been proud to be rated as II, which was "dependable division, proven in crisis situations".

So is there a direct relationship between Welle and category?

[RichTO90]

I'm afraid that is badly misunderstanding and miss-characterizing the defenders. It was not a "category two division", it was a bodenständige division of the 13. Welle. The "categorization" of divisions according to kampfwert was actually only formalized after Dieppe, but they likely would have been proud to be rated as II, which was "dependable division, proven in crisis situations".

So is there a direct relationship between Welle and category?

No, not at all. The various Welle were simply mobilization waves. Different Welle after the initial mobilization were for different purposes. There was no such thing as a "category two division" related to the Welle. There was a separate divisional categorization according to "combat worthiness", but it was not developed until after Dieppe and it had nothing to do with when or how the division was mobilized. In any case, a division rated Kampfwert II would be pretty good if it was a bodenständige division. So I'm afraid Hughes-Wilson, in his ignorance of the specifics, was actually giving 302. Infanterie-Division a complement.

[Carl Schwamberger]

....
So I stand by my statement that a Wally invasion in 1942 would have been confronted by Luftflotte 3 and the "finest" in french heavy artillery. ....

Not much caring about the course of this thread, but there is a space in my notes for the German air strength in the west at this time. What was the strength of "Luftflotte 3", and any other air units in the west, and for good measure the likely reinforcement for several week after a hypothetical invasion?

As a aside I'd think July or August 1941 the ideal time for a Brit invasion of France, but thats for another thread

[BDV]

It is getting sidetracked, but as it pertains to the lack of thoroughness of German attack it definitely belongs to the discussion.

Following Winnie's follies in Greece, a British invasion of Europe in 1941 is ASB land. Also, before the thorough trashing of LW (not full until Spring 1944), invasion of Europe would likely be a very wasteful affair. I presume Germans would withdraw most of their assets from Med and a significant fraction of those in Eastern Europe to deal with an established British&Co beach-head.