Axis invasion of Continental USA

[bradley101]

Would this even be possible? The scenario assumes, Moscow and Leningrad are taken in 1941, and the USSR excepts the territorial concessions in Generalplan Ost. Germany then turns to UK and successfully launches Operation Sea Lion in 1942. Albert Speers economic reforms begin at start of 1942 after Japan forces China's hand to the bargaining table, and peace is declared with very pro Japan terms. The US carrier fleet in still in Pearl Harbor on the 7th of December 1941, and Japan wins Battle of the Coral sea and Midway with few casualty's.

What would be the prerequisites to an Axis invasion, i.e. Naval supremacy. Where would the landing likely be and necessary forces involved. Lets assume with control of Western and Eastern seaboard citys, plus Detroit and Michigan will cause the USA to surrender. Would in even be possible?

Bradley

[pugsville]

They wouldn't even have anything close to Naval Supremacy. The US Naval construction program already underway was large. 4 Essex class CVs a year (at least and if there was a real crisis they perhaps could have done better) plus a host of smaller carriers. While loss of 4 carriers at perl/midway would be a large loss it would be relatively quickly made up. Carriers lost at PH would most likely see a lot of the crew and air crew survive which would help.They built what 24 Essex CVs, ( a couple post war)

The British also possessed a reasonable carrier force, they loaned one to the USN in 1942. IF the US lost all it's fleet carriers it easy to see that being increased. IF Britain is conquered much better cooperation could see USN teach the RN about carrier warfare.

The German navy was pitifully small. Even if they captured a lot of ships crewing and learning enough to be an effective force is a huge ask. carrier operations take a longtime to develop. In a naval war dominated by carriers they would add very little.

[OpanaPointer]

Compare the logistics needed to land in Normandy, against an enemy that was heavily engaged elsewhere and still defending a coast from Norway to Greece. The Germans would have to do all that via trans-Atlantic routes. Even the Allies needed bases closer than that to invade Japan, and they were planning to take Kyushu to support the attack on Honshu.

[RichTO90]

Would this even be possible?

No, unless ASB intervene.

The scenario assumes, Moscow and Leningrad are taken in 1941, and the USSR excepts the territorial concessions in Generalplan Ost.

How? Come up with a reasonable point-of-departure instead of a blanket declaration please. That isn't an assumption, but rather a rather enormous leap of faith.

Germany then turns to UK and successfully launches Operation Sea Lion in 1942.

The UK does nothing to maintain naval supremacy for two years?

Albert Speers economic reforms begin at start of 1942

No such thing occurred at any time in the real world.

after Japan forces China's hand to the bargaining table, and peace is declared with very pro Japan terms.

Again, how? Japan had already committed about 90% of her army and army air forces to achieving that end. Where does the additional 90-plus percent or so required come from?

The US carrier fleet in still in Pearl Harbor on the 7th of December 1941, and Japan wins Battle of the Coral sea and Midway with few casualty's.

There was no "US carrier fleet". If a carrier is in Pearl on 7 December then two-thirds of the fleet are at sea. With radar of their own active.

What would be the prerequisites to an Axis invasion, i.e. Naval supremacy. Where would the landing likely be and necessary forces involved. Lets assume with control of Western and Eastern seaboard citys, plus Detroit and Michigan will cause the USA to surrender. Would in even be possible?

Bradley

There is no logical way the Axis could achieve naval parity, let alone supremacy. So no way any cities would be controlled. No it is not possible.

[Old_Fossil]

WWII proved that the basis for naval supremacy was air superiority, either land-based or from carriers. In the scenario you propose (wildly optimistic) there is still no basis for this air superiority for the Axis. Continental based air power in North America is going to be vastly superior to whatever air power the Axis could provide even in the most generous of What If's.

Imagine what the Americans would have had to do to launch a trans-Atlantic invasion of France. The Axis has no way near the resources of the United States and Canada.

[Old_Fossil]

"RichTO90 wrote
[/quote]
There is no logical way the Axis could achieve naval parity, let alone supremacy. So no way any cities would be controlled. No it is not possible.[/quote]

I wouldn't go that far. Assuming GB is conquered in 1940, the French fleet is seized intact, Gibraltar is taken liberating the Regia Marina from the Med and you have situation that at least on paper would be very threatening to the United States Navy.

[RichTO90]

I wouldn't go that far. Assuming GB is conquered in 1940, the French fleet is seized intact, Gibraltar is taken liberating the Regia Marina from the Med and you have situation that at least on paper would be very threatening to the United States Navy.

Again, mammoth assumptions without a reasonable point-of-departure do not equate to a valid possibility.

In terms of modern warships, the Two-Ocean Navy Act in June 1940 authorized:

18 additional fleet carriers on top of the seven existing and building
7 additional fast battleships on top of the ten existing and building
6 large cruisers
27 heavy and light cruisers on top of the 26 existing and building
115 destroyers on top of the 60-odd existing and building

Plans for the evacuation of the British fleet to Canada already existed. The remnants of the French Navy not already in British control or disabled by the British, such as they were, plus the Regia Marina, combined with the German "fleet" are dwarfed by that. And the emergency war authorizations could increase that even more.

[Old_Fossil]

[quote="RichTO90
In terms of modern warships, the Two-Ocean Navy Act in June 1940 authorized:

18 additional fleet carriers on top of the seven existing and building
7 additional fast battleships on top of the ten existing and building
6 large cruisers
27 heavy and light cruisers on top of the 26 existing and building
115 destroyers on top of the 60-odd existing and building

[/quote]

True. But this massive build-up didn't manifest itself until mid-1943. That's when the first Essex class carriers became operational. We can argue about the likelihood of England falling in 1940 or the French fleet being seized by the Germans in other threads. I'm not opposed to considering WI that are very unlikely or even impossible as long as from the point of departure onward we stick to realistic possibilities. The original OP's PODs are bizarrely improbable. I don't mind that. He asked what the chances are for successful invasion of North America. The chances are zero and I don't mind pointing out why.

[RichTO90]

True. But this massive build-up didn't manifest itself until mid-1943. That's when the first Essex class carriers became operational.

Sure...along with the nine Independence-class light carriers...but quite a few of the 120 CVE were already available. Versus...zero German carriers. Versus...zero French carriers (Bearn was in Martinique for the duration). Versus...zero Italian aircraft carriers.

The imbalance is simply too great that a scenario where the Germans get "more" of the French fleet to play with and the Italians get "access' to the Atlantic remains meaningless.

We can argue about the likelihood of England falling in 1940 or the French fleet being seized by the Germans in other threads. I'm not opposed to considering WI that are very unlikely or even impossible as long as from the point of departure onward we stick to realistic possibilities. The original OP's PODs are bizarrely improbable. I don't mind that. He asked what the chances are for successful invasion of North America. The chances are zero and I don't mind pointing out why.

Sorry, but for me that is to close to the "What if Wellington had a B-52 at Waterloo" school of "what-ifs".

But I'm glad we are in agreement on the central question.

[gurn]

holy Harry Turtledove!

If..... A direct attack would be foolish but Norway to Iceland to Greenland then into Canada into the States.......... would still be impossible. Pretty much.

[phylo_roadking]

Plus.....the RM was a Mediterranean-oriented navy; its capital ships had very short ranges, and weren't at all suited to the heavy seas and weather of the Atlantic.... Let's face it - most of the KM's vessels were equally vulnerable to very high seas and bad weather!

Just two more points...

The UK does nothing to maintain naval supremacy for two years?

This is something I've always wondered about...is Mescal about?...what had the cumulative Royal Navy losses of 1940 and 1941 done to their original net naval supremacy as of the beginning of the war?

It doesn't take away from them still enjoying an overwhelming naval superiority, given the KM's losses...but I've always wondered just how overwhelming it was at various points.

and -

If..... A direct attack would be foolish but Norway to Iceland to Greenland then into Canada into the States.......... would still be impossible. Pretty much.

It would very much depend on what this putative invasion looked like - some sort of Sealion effort...or just a big "raid" along the lines of the 1901-5 German Imperial Staff plan for invading Long Island and holding it "hostage" - ransoming it in effect against the various possessions around the world the U.S. had just taken from the Spanish

I'm not in favour of the idea as a WI - just wondering if something far smaller and more focused than an actual "invasion" would backfoot the U.S. far more than an actual all-bells-and-whistles invasion attempt That would be BOUND to fail...

[Sid Guttridge]

This is a non-starter for reasons given above.

It would have to be conducted before the USA got the atomic bomb.

It seems unlikely that, between finishing the USSR off, presumably in early 1942, and the advent of the A-Bomb in 1945, Germany and Japan could both outbuild the USA and British Commonwealth and defeat them at sea.

When they were most vulnerable in early 1942, the Americans was more worried about indirect approaches by the Germans through Brazil and the Japanese in Baja California and across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec(spelling?) in Mexico. However, their victory at Midway ended these American worries.

Cheers,

Sid.

[maltesefalcon]

First this topic has been discussed already quite a few times, with some different nuances of course.

Second, what would Speer be doing as armament minister in the first place? He replaced Todt, because he died in a plane crash . That crash happened in the 1942 Ost campaign, which now would be over, by your setup.

Third, you project a Japanese victory over USN carriers at Midway and Coral Sea. Why would these battles even take place? By your setup they have been sunk at Pearl.

(By the way, those same carriers may have been refloated by late 1942 for the same reason that most of the damaged battleships were. The air crews would likely have survived as they would likely have flown their aircraft off ship before docking. If the USN could buy some time, they'd be back in business)

Finally the Chinese government may have officially surrendered to the Japanese in 1942, but they did not control the various warlords and armies including Maos Communists. Based on the atrocities committed by Japan thus far, a peace treaty would be a tough sell in the general population.

[OpanaPointer]

Reality tends to bite what-iffing right where it hurts.

[Carl Schwamberger]

I like the proposal for the Axis armies to march across the polar ice cap and rush across undefended Canada

...and I dont like the ugly emoticons available now.