Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

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JAG13
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Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#1

Post by JAG13 » 26 Feb 2015, 21:01

This is the scenario, Hitler eats some bad oysters and after a restless night decides upon a Britain first policy that has Germany kicking the UK out of the ME in 1941, Churchill getting the boot and an uneasy armistice with Germany.

Free of British entanglements Hitler turns on the URSS, relations have cooled off significanthly since Turkey joined the Axis and Germany secured Iraq and Iran aginst Soviet wishes, therefore, there is no longer trade with them but the Germans now have limited access to sea trade.

Japan gets cheap ME oil, so no PH.

The Red Army starts to receive KV-3s, T-34Ms, basically, all the improved weapons they were supposed to get before Barbie hit. They complete their Mechanized Corps plans, their new air bases and the Molotov Line.

The 1941 purges continue, Zhukov and his staff get tortured and shot as he feared.

The Germans finally accept that there are new and heavier Soviet tanks available in quantity and accelerate plans to upgun their tanks with 5cm/L60s and 7,5cm/L48, as well as extra Paks and tanks.

They also realize that the Red Army is FAR larger than anticipated making its complete destruction unlikely.

Japan is secured as an ally and intends to commit 20 division for an assault on Siberia.

After a tense winter with many skirmishes and interception of recce planes the question is, who is going to attack first? And what do you do as German HQ? Attack? Delaying action up to the Vistula and then an enveloping counterattack?

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Re: Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#2

Post by maltesefalcon » 27 Feb 2015, 02:55

Hitler eats some bad oysters?

Guess part of the what if is, he is no longer a vegetarian?


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Kingfish
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Re: Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#3

Post by Kingfish » 27 Feb 2015, 14:07

JAG13 wrote:Japan is secured as an ally and intends to commit 20 division for an assault on Siberia.
The Japanese would contribute precious little in this WI.

Being a largely horse-drawn force (even more so that the Germans), the Kwantung army was simply not equipped for the rapid and deep exploitation type attack that would be required to threaten anything of value in Siberia.

In addition, the reversals suffered at Lake Kahsan and Nomohan, and subsequent purging of the more aggressive officers within that army, would further undermine its ability to assist the Germans in any appreciable way.
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JAG13
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Re: Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#4

Post by JAG13 » 27 Feb 2015, 21:10

Little is better than nothing, and the IJA wanted to have a go at the Russians, the availability of ME oil might be enough to convince the IJN to hold its horses and target the Russians first, which wre still supplying the Chinese with weapons and "volunteers" btw.

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Re: Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#5

Post by Kingfish » 27 Feb 2015, 21:26

How does the IJN target the Russians in China?
Sail Kido Butai up the Yangtze river?
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Re: Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#6

Post by JAG13 » 27 Feb 2015, 23:14

Kingfish wrote:How does the IJN target the Russians in China?
Sail Kido Butai up the Yangtze river?
You are one smart cookie.

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Re: Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#7

Post by Kingfish » 28 Feb 2015, 17:38

Think outside the Genda box
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Re: Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#8

Post by thaddeus_c » 28 Feb 2015, 20:02

think once the USSR central government (and in this scenario the British empire) have been defeated Japan becomes of no importance to Germany, that they will be ignored at best or Germans find a military leader to install in Siberia to control the region and then resume their trade with China.

OR central government might not even have to be defeated, with Axis in Iraq and Iran a coup might happen inside USSR?

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Re: Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#9

Post by ChrisDR68 » 07 Mar 2015, 14:10

I thought I'd started a similar thread to this scenario last year... 8O

http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 1&t=205590

It's not quite as flippant as this one though! :thumbsup:

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Re: Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#10

Post by SpicyJuan » 22 Mar 2015, 18:43

JAG13 wrote:This is the scenario, Hitler eats some bad oysters and after a restless night decides upon a Britain first policy that has Germany kicking the UK out of the ME in 1941, Churchill getting the boot and an uneasy armistice with Germany.

Free of British entanglements Hitler turns on the URSS, relations have cooled off significanthly since Turkey joined the Axis and Germany secured Iraq and Iran aginst Soviet wishes, therefore, there is no longer trade with them but the Germans now have limited access to sea trade.

Japan gets cheap ME oil, so no PH.

The Red Army starts to receive KV-3s, T-34Ms, basically, all the improved weapons they were supposed to get before Barbie hit. They complete their Mechanized Corps plans, their new air bases and the Molotov Line.

The 1941 purges continue, Zhukov and his staff get tortured and shot as he feared.

The Germans finally accept that there are new and heavier Soviet tanks available in quantity and accelerate plans to upgun their tanks with 5cm/L60s and 7,5cm/L48, as well as extra Paks and tanks.

They also realize that the Red Army is FAR larger than anticipated making its complete destruction unlikely.

Japan is secured as an ally and intends to commit 20 division for an assault on Siberia.

After a tense winter with many skirmishes and interception of recce planes the question is, who is going to attack first? And what do you do as German HQ? Attack? Delaying action up to the Vistula and then an enveloping counterattack?
What an interesting scenario! Usually these what ifs are if Britain was defeated in 1940, but one where Britian surrenders in '41 is very thought-provoking. There really is no complete answer. The war then could go any number of ways. I believe that all of the oil that it needs from the ME, no second front consuming valuable materials, supply, and most importantly attention, as well as the Japanese drawing attention, the upgrading of tanks, the loss of Zhukov, and most importantly realizing the actual strength of the Soviets would go a very long way to giving the German's a shot at victory. But in the end it would mostly be decided on the battles, and the war evolves.

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Re: Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#11

Post by JAG13 » 28 Mar 2015, 01:00

SpicyJuan wrote: What an interesting scenario! Usually these what ifs are if Britain was defeated in 1940, but one where Britian surrenders in '41 is very thought-provoking. There really is no complete answer. The war then could go any number of ways. I believe that all of the oil that it needs from the ME, no second front consuming valuable materials, supply, and most importantly attention, as well as the Japanese drawing attention, the upgrading of tanks, the loss of Zhukov, and most importantly realizing the actual strength of the Soviets would go a very long way to giving the German's a shot at victory. But in the end it would mostly be decided on the battles, and the war evolves.
The way I see it it would be very, very hard for the Germans to win, once they stop burying their heads in the sand and believe the intel reports on soviet troop strength I can see them even shelving the whole thing, after all, they were beting on destroying the Red Army in a single push since they KNOW they cant win a protracted war against their oil and grain supplier...

Anyone has any idea regarding Soviet strategic oil reserves? That may be the only opening...

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Re: Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#12

Post by Tim Smith » 09 Apr 2015, 12:02

Don't forget, that when Germany conquered Poland in 1940, Russia occupied the eastern half of it to protect its own interests. Later Russia occupied the 3 Baltic States.

So if the British Empire collapses in 1941, don't rule out Russia occupying all of Persia (Iran) to protect its own interests. So Germany gets some of the Middle East oil, but not all of it.

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Re: Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#13

Post by BDV » 10 Apr 2015, 11:05

Tim Smith wrote:So if the British Empire collapses in 1941
What?!?

Why?

How?
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

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Re: Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#14

Post by toque » 10 Apr 2015, 14:14

Even if Germany wins in the summer of 1942, I ask ... what then?

They had made no significant provision for the winter of 1942-43. Even if the regular Russian army had been destroyed, serious losses of men and materiel would continue.

I am also inclined to doubt that the vast insurgency in the German rear areas would abate. I see that as going on for years, so the supply situation is not going to be good.

As the Russian winter comes on very quickly, I don't see a speedy withdrawal (in whole or in part), to more agreeable climes as being feasible either, even assuming that was what they would try to do.

So what are they going to do? It is difficult to see how the Germans can go, and how they can stay.

Was the German High Command intending to accept further losses in order to get through to the Summer of 1943, when they could begin moving again?

Or had they simply given the subject no thought whatsoever?

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Re: Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

#15

Post by JAG13 » 15 Jun 2015, 21:04

Tim Smith wrote:Don't forget, that when Germany conquered Poland in 1940, Russia occupied the eastern half of it to protect its own interests. Later Russia occupied the 3 Baltic States.

So if the British Empire collapses in 1941, don't rule out Russia occupying all of Persia (Iran) to protect its own interests. So Germany gets some of the Middle East oil, but not all of it.
I think I read somewhere that the Soviets were getting ready for just that in 1941, just as the Iranians where considering joining the Axis...

An Iranian appeal to Hitler MIGHT detter Stalin... or that may be the straw that broke the camel's back, Joe might have wanted to avoid an early conflict with Hitler, but the succession of Soviet retreats (Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, the Baltics, Turkey) might turn out to be too much to stomach...

Oil wise, Iraq alone could produce about 5 million tons a year IIRC (and I think ROmania provided close to 2 millions), so that should be plenty considering that the USSR never got to trade even a million tons to the Nazis until B1941.

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