Can Germany win Barbarossa in May 1942?

[JAG13]

Even if Germany wins in the summer of 1942, I ask ... what then?

They had made no significant provision for the winter of 1942-43. Even if the regular Russian army had been destroyed, serious losses of men and materiel would continue.

It depends, Germany would have had a solid oil supply in Iraq, and in Turkey a means to deny the USSR 90% of its oil production, that means those Russians tanks cant really move even if you can make them.

I am also inclined to doubt that the vast insurgency in the German rear areas would abate. I see that as going on for years, so the supply situation is not going to be good.

If they can beat the Read Army that is it, the Nazis plan for Russia was nothing short of mass genocide, we get too much holocaust movies that it blocks the fact that the Rusians simply had it much worse, they would be starved or shot to death which is why the Germans never made any serious effort towards using Soviet minorities against the red state.

As the Russian winter comes on very quickly, I don't see a speedy withdrawal (in whole or in part), to more agreeable climes as being feasible either, even assuming that was what they would try to do.

I dont even think the Germans would get very far, as it was B1941 was an oddity made possible by Stalin's own wish to placate the Germans, that is one of the main reasons why the Germans were so succesful. I would expect the fight to bog down around the original Stalin line.

So what are they going to do? It is difficult to see how the Germans can go, and how they can stay.

Was the German High Command intending to accept further losses in order to get through to the Summer of 1943, when they could begin moving again?

Or had they simply given the subject no thought whatsoever?

The Germans gave it no thought at all, it was a gamble as all the other German offensives, this one relied on the Soviets crumbling on their own within 500Km of the border, if they didnt, the Germans were screwed, which is why you had Germans official killing themselves late in 1941, they knew they were doomed, their own calculations projected them running out of critical supplies by the end of the year.

The only surprise is that the war lasted 3 more years.

Their only shot IMHO is to kill Soviet oil, their military AND agriculture depended on it, cut it off and the Russians would die very, very fast if not resupplied, that means to also close Vladivostok and Murmansk, otherwise Germany hasnt got a prayer.

[BDV]

Joe might have wanted to avoid an early conflict with Hitler, but the succession of Soviet retreats (Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, the Baltics, Turkey) might turn out to be too much to stomach...

Stalin retreat from ... the Baltics?!??

In particular,

Lithuania?

[BDV]

The only surprise is that the war lasted 3 more years.

Germany was not alone.

[JAG13]

Joe might have wanted to avoid an early conflict with Hitler, but the succession of Soviet retreats (Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, the Baltics, Turkey) might turn out to be too much to stomach...

Stalin retreat from ... the Baltics?!??

In particular,

Lithuania?

The Russians had adopted a hard stance on indemnifying the Baltic Germans and on the forntier demarcation with Germany, once the Heer started moving east Joe backed down.

...and Germany was pretty much alone, some allies could had numbers but not resources beyond those already committed and accounted (Romanian oil), not really.

[Erwinn]

Germany would never win with the increased distance to Soviet major cities.

If they haven't done the deal with Stalin about partitioning Poland, they could be much more closer to ending Soviets in 1941 before Winter arrived.

[ljadw]

Their only shot IMHO is to kill Soviet oil, their military AND agriculture depended on it, cut it off and the Russians would die very, very fast if not resupplied, that means to also close Vladivostok and Murmansk, otherwise Germany hasnt got a prayer.

This is very questionable:

1)The SU finished the war with an oil production that was only 60 % of the pre-war oil production .

2)The SU was less dependent on oil than it was assumed

3)The Caucasian oil production was less important than it was assumed

4)Only the fall of Baku could result in a real disruption,but it was unclear how important this disruption would be (source : Germany and WWII :Tome VI : PP 805-810 )

5)During the war the SU switched from coal and oil to wood

USSR energy mix in 1940 (in %)

Oil :18.7

Wood : 20

Rest (mainly coal ) :61

1945:

oil :15

Wood : 50

Coal : 35

[JAG13]

Germany would never win with the increased distance to Soviet major cities.

If they haven't done the deal with Stalin about partitioning Poland, they could be much more closer to ending Soviets in 1941 before Winter arrived.

The change is no B41, but B42, prior dealings occur as IRL such as the partition of Poland.

[David1819]

The only way I can see Germany escaping defeat is by successfully building a nuclear weapon no later than early 1944.

[JAG13]

The only way I can see Germany escaping defeat is by successfully building a nuclear weapon no later than early 1944.

...or managing to somehow avoid war with the US.

[History Learner]

Japan is secured as an ally and intends to commit 20 division for an assault on Siberia.

The Japanese would contribute precious little in this WI.

Being a largely horse-drawn force (even more so that the Germans), the Kwantung army was simply not equipped for the rapid and deep exploitation type attack that would be required to threaten anything of value in Siberia.

In addition, the reversals suffered at Lake Kahsan and Nomohan, and subsequent purging of the more aggressive officers within that army, would further undermine its ability to assist the Germans in any appreciable way.

Artillery based in Manchuria itself along the border was capable of cutting the Trans-Siberian Railway, the life blood of the Soviet Army. That alone would be decisive in the conflict.

[HistoryGeek2019]

If Britain agrees to peace with Germany in 1941, then the Soviet Union is doomed. There are three reasons.

(1) Most importantly, the end of the British blockade will allow Germany to import all the raw materials it needs to fuel its war industry. Germany suffered heavily under the British blockade in the OTL and was chronically short of raw materials (oil, rubber, metals, food, etc.). Germany also spent a massive amount on trying to develop expensive synthetic substitutes for these materials. Without the blockade, Germany can import everything it needs for cheaper. The absence of the blockade also frees up German strategy to focus on military rather than economic targets. There is no longer any rush to seize the Ukraine and Caucasus. Germany can simply focus on whatever makes military sense without letting non-military considerations affect military strategy.

(2) Germany has freed up resources that were being deployed against Britain. There's now no need for the Africa Corps, U-boats, surface raiders, E-boats, night fighters, AA guns, radar stations, and occupation forces in Western Europe and Norway. Germany can focus its entire military on Russia. There is also no looming fear of American entry into the war, so there is no rush to conquer Russia. Germany can take its time and do whatever makes military sense (like in the First World War).

(3) There is presumably no western aid to the Soviet Union. Britain has made peace, so it isn't going to throw money away helping Stalin (Britain was already broke by 1941 anyway). Likewise, the United States has no special love for Stalin and isn't going to send lend-lease aid when Britain has opted out of the war. Without lend-lease aid, Russia can't survive a long war with Germany.

[T. A. Gardner]

If Britain agrees to peace with Germany in 1941, then the Soviet Union is doomed. There are three reasons.

(1) Most importantly, the end of the British blockade will allow Germany to import all the raw materials it needs to fuel its war ndustry. Germany suffered heavily under the British blockade in the OTL and was chronically short of raw materials (oil, rubber, metals, food, etc.). Germany also spent a massive amount on trying to develop expensive synthetic substitutes for these materials. Without the blockade, Germany can import everything it needs for cheaper. The absence of the blockade also frees up German strategy to focus on military rather than economic targets. There is no longer any rush to seize the Ukraine and Caucasus. Germany can simply focus on whatever makes military sense without letting non-military considerations affect military strategy.

This assumes that nations will sell to Germany. If the US refuses to sell to Germany-- much like they did with Japan-- then blockade or no they aren't getting much in the way of raw materials. For example, the Dutch government in exile and British could say "No" to rubber imports as they control much of that resource. So long as Germany occupies Western Europe there's going to be a problem here.
On the other hand, if they return Western Europe to self-government, they have a much reduced economy while still having limited access to resources.

(2) Germany has freed up resources that were being deployed against Britain. There's now no need for the Africa Corps, U-boats, surface raiders, E-boats, night fighters, AA guns, radar stations, and occupation forces in Western Europe and Norway. Germany can focus its entire military on Russia. There is also no looming fear of American entry into the war, so there is no rush to conquer Russia. Germany can take its time and do whatever makes military sense (like in the First World War).

So, is it they keep Western Europe under occupation or do they end that? Big question there.

(3) There is presumably no western aid to the Soviet Union. Britain has made peace, so it isn't going to throw money away helping Stalin (Britain was already broke by 1941 anyway). Likewise, the United States has no special love for Stalin and isn't going to send lend-lease aid when Britain has opted out of the war. Without lend-lease aid, Russia can't survive a long war with Germany.

The US might well still send cubic dollars worth of military aid to Russia. In fact, without a war against Germany or Japan, they could easily flood the Soviet Union with material. They might even offer to send in US "contractors" to make the Trans Siberian railway really efficient, build new ports in the Pacific while upgrading existing ones. There'd really be no way for Germany to stop that even assuming they found out the US was doing it.

[HistoryGeek2019]

It depends on the type of peace. If it's a true return to normalcy where Germany can import freely, then Germany is going to have to give up something in return. I can't see Britain agreeing to end the blockade without Germany agreeing to withdraw from Western Europe. Conversely, Germany won't agree to withdraw from the occupied territories unless all parties agree to restore trade with Germany. The loss of Western Europe is a small price to pay for the ability to freely import raw materials. Western Europe contributed little to German industrial output other than conscripted labor.

Then again, I can't see Britain ever agreeing to end the blockade while Hitler or anyone other than Konrad Adenauer is in power, because it knows no peace treaty with Hitler and the German militarists is worth the paper it's printed on. So this ATL isn't really plausible. Even if Britain loses the entire Mediterranean, it will keep fighting. Even if Great Britain itself is conquered, the British military and Commonwealth will keep fighting. Because they know the only way to defeat Germany once and for all is to blockade it and force Germany to bleed itself to death on the Russian front.

[Kingfish]

Artillery based in Manchuria itself along the border was capable of cutting the Trans-Siberian Railway, the life blood of the Soviet Army. That alone would be decisive in the conflict.

Until the Russians re-open it again, something the Kwantung army was incapable of preventing.

I would also add that cutting the RR line is at best a punitive measure, and falls far short of the "assault on Siberia" as depicted in the original post.

[ljadw]

Japan is secured as an ally and intends to commit 20 division for an assault on Siberia.

The Japanese would contribute precious little in this WI.

Being a largely horse-drawn force (even more so that the Germans), the Kwantung army was simply not equipped for the rapid and deep exploitation type attack that would be required to threaten anything of value in Siberia.

In addition, the reversals suffered at Lake Kahsan and Nomohan, and subsequent purging of the more aggressive officers within that army, would further undermine its ability to assist the Germans in any appreciable way.

Artillery based in Manchuria itself along the border was capable of cutting the Trans-Siberian Railway, the life blood of the Soviet Army. That alone would be decisive in the conflict.

the Trans-Syberian was not the life blood of the Soviet Army .