Military Development After a 1915 CP Victory?

[Carl Schwamberger]

If the wiki is accurate (no guarantees there) the proposal did not emerge until 1918, & then in response to British air activity over the North Sea. Before 1918 or 1917 there was a belief by the KM leaders that Zeppelins were better than fixed wing. My thought is inate conservatism would slow a move towards a aircraft carrying ship. Then again a post war naval race might accelerate the trend.

[Carl Schwamberger]

Picking over this a bit further is has become apparent there is a significant fork sometime in the 1920s. A end to the 1914 war this early leads to some degree of a white peace between Britain & Germany, which settles nothing as far as Britain is concerned. That leaves the possibility of a German/Brit war during the 1920s. If there is not war doctrinal & technical developments will be relatively slow, compared to what we understand from the four years of 1914-18 it would seem very stagnant. if a german/Brit war does come sometime 1923-27 it is going to accelerate some or many developments, depending on the length and nature.

[stg 44]

Why would Britain go to war again without allies? Russia won't be recovered, nor will France. A naval war would still see the Brits having an advantage, but also a renewed German move to build up counter weapons like Uboats and aircraft.

[Carl Schwamberger]

Did not think or write Britain would forgo allies.

[stg 44]

Did not think or write Britain would forgo allies.

Who would they be though if France and Russia are still suffering from the defeats and consequences of the peace deals in the 1920s?

[Carl Schwamberger]

This question can lead to all sorts of directions. One possibility is either nation might see another was as a way to relieve the effects of defeat. Britain is certainly boing to be more aggresive at seeking allies, and will alter its policies with that as a goal. There is also the question of how long the after effects of defeat linger. Multiple outcomes there are possible. In any case the subject is military development & since another war in five or ten years consideration of the effect therof fits.

[stg 44]

But what allies besides France and Russia are available to Britain after a German victory in Europe? The US is not interested in entangling alliances at this point and has an increasing rivalry with Japan in Asia, an ally of Britain. Italy is going to either be in the CP orbit after the defeat of the Entente in 1915, especially if it hops in to carve off part of France that it covets. Everyone else in Europe is too small to seriously consider upsetting the CPs. Russia is probably the best bet if politically and economically recovered, but France is going to be sat on pretty hard by Germany after being defeated and probably won't be in a position to act.

While I have no doubt that you're right Britain, France, and Russia will want to settle the score in the 1920s I don't see them having the ability to do so before the 1930s-40s depending on how Europe economically develops in this situation, especially if Germany is able to exploit the wealth of Mittelafrika as Belgium was able to historically in the 1920s-50s. The pre-war German empire in Africa, plus French and Belgian Congo once developed will generate huge mineral (copper, diamonds, various other metals), food stuff (coffee, exotic foods), and other raw material wealth (rubber, cotton, etc.).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgian_Congo#Investment
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namibia#Mi ... lectricity
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanzania#Agriculture
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabon#Economy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Af ... ic#Economy

So even with large German investments in the Congo area to be able to exploit said wealth, it will reap a massive return that can be plowed into military hardware. Plus once more Ottoman oil comes online Germany will have a reliable source and a major market to sell to, especially in the military department.

[Carl Schwamberger]

Not really sure what you are getting at in terms of hardware or doctrine but maybe there is more to come that will make it clear.

[JAG13]

If the wiki is accurate (no guarantees there) the proposal did not emerge until 1918, & then in response to British air activity over the North Sea. Before 1918 or 1917 there was a belief by the KM leaders that Zeppelins were better than fixed wing. My thought is inate conservatism would slow a move towards a aircraft carrying ship. Then again a post war naval race might accelerate the trend.

I wouldnt be so sure, by 1915 the Germans were experimenting with floatplanes onboard DDs, CLs and small floatplane carriers, a purpose built carrier is not far off from there.







Regarding Zepps the KM still had faith in them, the Heer didnt and handed most its Zepps to th navy in 1915, they would follow the airplane route.

The KM was very fond of its floatplane fighters, Zepps might be good for recon, but you need planes to kill the other guy's recon. They even got to play with one with retractable floats.

[JAG13]

Btw, the KM wouldnt go oil, would go diesel, one of the Kaisers was already supposed to receive a cruising diesel engine for the mid shaft as were both Sachsens, so any scenario would see a push towards improving diesel plants, a system they pioneered.

Plus, the first synthetic fuel plant became operative in Germany in 1919, so the KM can have a secure fuel source at least for the Navy, just in case.

You need range to protect AND/OR raid from those new Mittel Afrika colonies, I would expect them to take the Belgian Congo and a few French colonies to make an uninterrupted German colony from Cameroon to Madagascar.

Moreover, the 1916 German-Japanese war warrants discussion, as well as the partition of Italy after the 1916 CP invasion.

There would be a continuation war with the British down the road of course...

[Carl Schwamberger]

...

Moreover, the 1916 German-Japanese war warrants discussion, as well as the partition of Italy after the 1916 CP invasion.

A German Japanese war gets you directly to this...

There would be a continuation war with the British down the road of course...

Japan was still a British client state in 1916 & British banks were deep into Japans pocket. Britain would not be smart to let its little ally be left hanging alone vs Germany.

Not quite sure what the motivation for a beating up Italy would be?

[Carl Schwamberger]

Regarding Zepps the KM still had faith in them, the Heer didnt and handed most its Zepps to th navy in 1915, they would follow the airplane route.

...

Thanks for the photos. I see the links to the sources behind them.

[JAG13]

...

Moreover, the 1916 German-Japanese war warrants discussion, as well as the partition of Italy after the 1916 CP invasion.

A German Japanese war gets you directly to this...

There would be a continuation war with the British down the road of course...

Japan was still a British client state in 1916 & British banks were deep into Japans pocket. Britain would not be smart to let its little ally be left hanging alone vs Germany.

Probably shouldnt have said 1916.

Japan invaded the German posessions in the Pacific, so unless Japan returns them in order to make peace, there would be a Pacific campaign for the KM. Kinda likely since Japan might believe itself capable of "Tsushimaing" the Germans, specially given their lack of bases...

Not quite sure what the motivation for a beating up Italy would be?

Given its desertion form the CP, its blackmail, and the consequent resentment ot caused, it was a given even if Germany were to back down, AH would go it alone.

[JAG13]

Thanks for the photos. I see the links to the sources behind them.

Another useful one:

http://www.navypedia.org/ships/germany/ger_cv_wwi.htm

[Carl Schwamberger]

...

Japan invaded the German posessions in the Pacific, so unless Japan returns them in order to make peace, there would be a Pacific campaign for the KM. Kinda likely since Japan might believe itself capable of "Tsushimaing" the Germans, specially given their lack of bases...

That may be settled in the peace treaty. Either Japan returns the concession, or it is traded off for something else.

Not quite sure what the motivation for a beating up Italy would be?

Given its desertion form the CP, its blackmail, and the consequent resentment ot caused, it was a given even if Germany were to back down, AH would go it alone.

I kinda left this one open. If things go south fast enough Italy may sit the whole thing out. Italy procrastinated until the spring of 1915 & did not make a decision until late 1915, with a DoW in May. ...Or make supportive noise for the CP. "Hey good job putting those Frenches down, & remember we gotcher back."