Soviet Invasion of Romania 1940

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SpicyJuan
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Soviet Invasion of Romania 1940

#1

Post by SpicyJuan » 24 May 2015, 21:50

What if in 1940, the Romanians refused the Soviet ultimatum for Bessarabia and the Soviets invaded like Stalin planned? According to Hitler, if they had seized Ploesti, the German's would have been easily defeated then and there. Thoughts?

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pintere
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Re: Soviet Invasion of Romania 1940

#2

Post by pintere » 25 May 2015, 16:41

Given the successes of Barbarossa in '41, and the fact that Romania going to war would not oblige Hitler to do so (right away, that is), I don't think it would have been a major problem for the Germans. They would continue to receive Soviet oil exports, and if they did recapture Romania, they would be seen as liberators by a population filled with a desire for revenge...


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Re: Soviet Invasion of Romania 1940

#3

Post by Old_Fossil » 25 May 2015, 22:46

Bessarabia was assigned to the Soviet sphere in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, but not Romania itself. If Romania resisted the Russians would have invaded and taken Bessarabia by force but stopped before entering Romania proper. There is precedent for this in that only part of Finland was seized the previous winter and not the whole country.

The consequences for Germany if Russia occupied Romania would be catastrophic. The oil fields would demolished by the Romanians and what they didn't destroy the Russians would complete when Germany attacked to retake them. Germany would have been royally screwed. Germany relied on Romania for about half its oil. Stalin knew this so he would not provoke war with Germany.
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pintere
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Re: Soviet Invasion of Romania 1940

#4

Post by pintere » 27 May 2015, 19:03

Old_Fossil wrote:The consequences for Germany if Russia occupied Romania would be catastrophic. The oil fields would demolished by the Romanians and what they didn't destroy the Russians would complete when Germany attacked to retake them. Germany would have been royally screwed. Germany relied on Romania for about half its oil. Stalin knew this so he would not provoke war with Germany.
In the short term, for sure, the oil imports would cease. But after retaking them, even if it took a year or so to repair, I don't think it would have a major impact long term. The Germans could rely on existing stocks until the oil supply from Romania resumed.

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BDV
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Re: Soviet Invasion of Romania 1940

#5

Post by BDV » 05 Jun 2015, 17:43

Depending on the specific way that the regional war evolves.

In case of the (likely) military collapse of Romania faced with the Soviet onslaught, an entry of HungaroGerman forces in Ardeal (Transylvania) and of German forces into the northern Walachian Plain (to ensure the safety of oil fields) is also likely. If Romania holds (unlikely as that is) probably the Germans would also negotiate their troops' access and securing of oilfields and/or armistice line, but Hungary may not get the historical Ardeal slice.
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Re: Soviet Invasion of Romania 1940

#6

Post by thaddeus_c » 05 Jun 2015, 23:52

SpicyJuan wrote:What if in 1940, the Romanians refused the Soviet ultimatum for Bessarabia and the Soviets invaded like Stalin planned? According to Hitler, if they had seized Ploesti, the German's would have been easily defeated then and there. Thoughts?
posted a thread on Germany preemptively invading Romania (instead of Poland in 1939) http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 1&t=213916 first so Soviets couldn't grab oil, second to be able to control ALL oil production (instead of OTL half), third to receive it free (basically) since they really couldn't pay.

if the Soviets invade all of Romania the war would be over since it means no further sales of their oil either (under any conceivable scenario) AND the German synthetic production was (IIRC) approx. 10 -12m barrels at that point.

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