1991: IRA mortars slay Major; PM Heseltine ruins the Gulf War

[Von Schadewald]

The February 7 1991 IRA mortar attack on Downing Street came within yards of killing John Major, Douglas Hurd, Tom King, Norman Lamont, Peter Lilley, Patrick Mayhew, David Mellor, John Wakeham, civil servants Robin Butler, Percy Cradock, Gus O'Donnell, Charles Powell and Chief of the Defence Staff David Craig.

The attack took place in the middle of the Gulf War and at the height of Saddam's SCUD attacks on Israel which threatened the Coalition.

If the British government had been decapitated, the charisma of Michael Heseltine, who had almost succeeded Thatcher as PM 2 months before, would have carried him through as PM by a leaderless Conservative Party and by public popular demand. With Heseltine as PM, whom Thatcher held was a disruptive renegade, all bets are off as to how he would have conducted the British forces in the Gulf

[Futurist]

Wouldn't the proper thing for Heseltine to do (especially considering both his predecessor's assassination and the immensity of the situation in regards to Iraq) have been to stay the course (in spite of whatever inclinations he might have to do otherwise), though?

[amcl]

Not if you think he was "a disruptive renegade", no. On the other hand, if we consider that Heseltine was a minister throughout Thatcher's governments, and was a minister and then Deputy PM in Major's govenments, perhaps he wasn't a renegade? Our OP seems to be the first and only person to use those exact words to describe him.

There's nothing in the man's record to suggest that "all bets are off" if he becomes PM. More of the same seems much more likely, perhaps with slightly more protectionism in favour of strategic defence industries. What ifs invoking swivel-eyed Ukanian Gaullist PMs have been done, and done well, but with Powell in the starring role rather than Heseltine.

[T. A. Gardner]

It would have made no difference. The coalition would have still crushed Iraq and retaken Kuwait.

[Tim Smith]

Agreed. The politicians only have to decide whether to commit forces to the Gulf region in the first place. By 7 February 1991, that decision is long past. The air campaign is already underway, with the RAF participating, and the ground campaign is fully planned out and scheduled for 24 February. Also, British forces are part of a coalition, with the supreme commander being General Schwartzkopf, a US general.

This what-if is like Britain pulling out of D-Day if Winston Churchill had been killed by a V1 bomb a week or two before. No way would Britain do that.

[AJFFM]

You seem to have forgotten the tiny little fact that the war was already going on and that the enemy was engaged both by air and land (Khafji). Even if he wanted to he couldn't and frankly never in world history did such a thing happen even if the person in charge was the biggest pacifist there is.

The Canadian PM is still in Iraq and Syria despite being in power for nearly 7 months.