Germany vs US over the Phillipines

[DocHawkeye]

In 1898 not long after the Spanish American War, their was speculation that the Germans might attempt to make a pass at taking the Phillipines. Hot on the heels of their conquest of Tsingtao their was much ado about a German move on Manila. In Germany their was far less enthusiasm for this (basically none) probably due to a combination of disinterest in the islands, poor strategic disposition, and greater concerns ie bigger fish to fry back in Europe.

However, let's assume the Germans take an interest in snatching the islands out from the Americans right after the Spanish American War. What do both sides have at their disposal? What are their options? Could Germany make push for the Philippines against American resistance?

[T. A. Gardner]

Well, the US had somewhere between 20,000 and 40,000 field effective troops in the Philippines (Philippine Scouts, etc.) and about 120,000 to 150,000 potential combat effectives there at the time. The coastal fortifications for Manila harbor were being planned and started just a couple of years later.
US planning was to assemble a fleet train and base at Manila, although this was a paper exercise in1898 that didn't actually occur until about 1905.

You are looking at a situation where the Germans really don't have the fleet or means to conduct a war in the Pacific.

Now, a potentially more useful scenario is one where the Germans build up their colonial holdings in the Pacific with the intent of being able to defend themselves in the event of a war with Britain or France. Rabual for example could have been built up into a defensible harbor and colonial facility.

[DocHawkeye]

Suppose that circumstances dictate some kind of action. Like the boiling over of a crisis between the two powers. Can Germany engage in the Phillippines or will it actually be defending itself from the American force there? Can they protect Tsingtao in that case?

[Phaing]

There does seem to have been lot of animosity between the Kaiser and some of his cronies vs. the USA (see German plans to invade the US 1900-05) but there was none at all among the German people.
And they had other fish to fry. Tsingatao was mentioned already, and the Germans were even more lavish with the commercial upgrades they gave that place than they were with the military side of things.

I would say that after Tsushima, even the hot-heads in Berlin had reason to be glad they had avoided war with an up & coming power in the West Pacific.

[T. A. Gardner]

Look at the near naval battle that the Germans and US had at Guam in 1889. That stand off ended only because a cyclone blew in on the island and sank both "fleets." The Germans had three small gunboats present, the Olga, Adler, and Eber. The US had the large screw frigate Trenton, and gunboats Vandalia and Nipsic present.

The Germans had a long range advantage in that their ships had modern breech loading quick firing guns aboard whereas the US had a big advantage in short and medium range firepower having large smoothbore and rifled guns, some breech loading, on their ships. Because the German guns were much smaller in caliber a fight would likely have had the three German ships sunk in short order. A single British RN vessel, HMS Calliope, was present and her Captain told the Americans if it came down to it he'd side with them.

SMS Adler after the cyclone.



USS Trenton

[SpicyJuan]

Look at the near naval battle that the Germans and US had at Guam in 1889. That stand off ended only because a cyclone blew in on the island and sank both "fleets." The Germans had three small gunboats present, the Olga, Adler, and Eber. The US had the large screw frigate Trenton, and gunboats Vandalia and Nipsic present.

The Germans had a long range advantage in that their ships had modern breech loading quick firing guns aboard whereas the US had a big advantage in short and medium range firepower having large smoothbore and rifled guns, some breech loading, on their ships. Because the German guns were much smaller in caliber a fight would likely have had the three German ships sunk in short order. A single British RN vessel, HMS Calliope, was present and her Captain told the Americans if it came down to it he'd side with them.

SMS Adler after the cyclone.



USS Trenton

If a naval engagement occurred, how do you think it would turn out?

[T. A. Gardner]

Judge for yourself:

The German ships present:

Adler: 1024 tons, 5 12.5 cm BL steel cannon, 4 3.7cm revolver cannon
Eber: 723 tons, 3 10.5 cm BL rifles
Olga: 2,147 tons, 2 8.8 cm BL rifles, 10 3.7cm revolver cannon

Trenton: 3,900 tons, 11 8" Dahlgren RML, 4 20 pdr BL rifles



Nipsic: 1,375 tons, 4 9" Dahlgren SB, 1 8" Dahlgren RML, 2 24 pdr Howitzers

Vandalia: 1,900 tons, 2 8" Dahlgren RML, 6 9" Dahlgren SB

The German's only hope of winning, and it's a slender one at best, is to get out at longer range and pick at the US ships. At anything under about two miles the US ships are going to tear the Germans apart with their much heavier and more numerous muzzle loaders. I'd say the likely outcome had fighting broken out, since the ships were in harbor, would be the both sides would open up and the US would smash all three German ships into splinters very quickly.
The Trenton out matches the Germans completely. She has an enclosed gun deck and her hull is heavy enough that most of the German shot would have a hard time penetrating and doing any real damage to her. The Dahlgren 8" rifle fires a 150 lbs. shot and a 100 lbs. shell. The 9" SB Dahlgren's fire a 124 lbs. shot and 101 lbs. shell.
The Germans throw a fraction of that broadside and their slightly higher rate of fire isn't going to make up for that.

[Carl Schwamberger]

I wonder what such pointless war would have done to the Kaisers political base?

[Hoist40]

The US should have just given Philippines to the Germans, or even better given it back to the Philippines and walked away

Philippines was a drain on the US taxpayer
Philippines was a defense nightmare
Philippines was no use as a base for major fleet operations since it was too far from the US to be supported in war.

Too bad that it took until 1935 for the US to realize this and finish the process of making it independent

[T. A. Gardner]

The problem with that is WW 1 comes along and the Philippines end up in Japanese hands or as a near helpless independent nation. Either way, it benefits Japan greatly come WW 2.

The Philippine's problems economically, really stem from several centuries under Spanish rule. Look at Central and South America. There is very little other than Spain's (and Portugal's in Brazil's case) mismanagement of them as colonies then followed by self rule with Spanish culture to blame for their relative failure compared to the US and Canada.

The Philippines made considerable progress with US rule for the roughly half century that it existed.