March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
Post Reply
Art
Forum Staff
Posts: 7028
Joined: 04 Jun 2004, 20:49
Location: Moscow, Russia

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#16

Post by Art » 01 Nov 2015, 16:38

JAG13 wrote: Now, if the Soviets fully mobilize then the Germans would as well, both sides rushing troops to the frontier
Right. In reality Germany was building up the invasion army at the border while the Soviet Union was doing little in response until the last moment. The first option is simply better then the second.

AJFFM
Member
Posts: 607
Joined: 22 Mar 2013, 21:37

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#17

Post by AJFFM » 01 Nov 2015, 16:46

JAG13 wrote:
I agree, but that is in hindsight, Zhukov was there and wanted to do it anyway, he may have overestimated the Red Army's capabilities and yet he seemed not only willing but wanting to do it.

And as Art put it, the only RA plan was offensive, as crazy as it may sound to us.
Just because Zhukov wanted something doesn't make it right. The Finnish fiasco, which he was far away from to my knowledge, happened to the already "Ready" Red Army. Imagine what would happen to a Red Army that was totally unready (do not under-estimate the colossal logistical nightmares suffered by the Red Army before Smolensk and this was the dry season) except for a few corps that were eliminated within a couple of weeks of Barbarossa?


User avatar
JAG13
Member
Posts: 689
Joined: 23 Mar 2013, 02:50

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#18

Post by JAG13 » 01 Nov 2015, 19:14

AJFFM wrote:
JAG13 wrote:
I agree, but that is in hindsight, Zhukov was there and wanted to do it anyway, he may have overestimated the Red Army's capabilities and yet he seemed not only willing but wanting to do it.

And as Art put it, the only RA plan was offensive, as crazy as it may sound to us.
Just because Zhukov wanted something doesn't make it right. The Finnish fiasco, which he was far away from to my knowledge, happened to the already "Ready" Red Army. Imagine what would happen to a Red Army that was totally unready (do not under-estimate the colossal logistical nightmares suffered by the Red Army before Smolensk and this was the dry season) except for a few corps that were eliminated within a couple of weeks of Barbarossa?
Oh, I agree, but Zhukov was the CoS and the one that should have known what the RA was capable of and advising on the feasibility of operational plans, and he wasnt the only one calling for a preemptive strike in the RA high command, only Stalin's faith in Hitler (he thought he was holding the warmongering German generals back) caused him to ignore both the intelligence reports and the requests form the RA brass. This what if aims to remove exactly that, just delete the sole obstacle to the RA's plans and see what would have happened in its absence.

And had Stalin had any misgivings about the RA's readiness he wouldnt have been killing-off RA officers in 1940-41.

User avatar
JAG13
Member
Posts: 689
Joined: 23 Mar 2013, 02:50

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#19

Post by JAG13 » 01 Nov 2015, 19:26

Art wrote:
JAG13 wrote: Now, if the Soviets fully mobilize then the Germans would as well, both sides rushing troops to the frontier
Right. In reality Germany was building up the invasion army at the border while the Soviet Union was doing little in response until the last moment. The first option is simply better then the second.
Indeed, and hitting the Germans in the back as they invade the Balkans is the best course of action for the RA, especially since the bulk of the RA MKs was in the south facing Romania and aiming straight at the back of the Marita divisions and Ploesti.

Now a full RA mob means the Heer has to redeploy in order to better cover Romania, weakening itself in he north which was the main area of effort for the RA, although the possibility of rescuing the Serbians and Greeks may change that further adding to a massive showdown in Romania.

There would certainly be no Merkur in any case...

AJFFM
Member
Posts: 607
Joined: 22 Mar 2013, 21:37

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#20

Post by AJFFM » 01 Nov 2015, 21:05

I doubt that the doggedness of the Red Army commanders was inspired by bravado or confidence. It was inspired by fear. Try saying to Stalin that you were not ready in March 41.

User avatar
JAG13
Member
Posts: 689
Joined: 23 Mar 2013, 02:50

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#21

Post by JAG13 » 02 Nov 2015, 04:42

AJFFM wrote:I doubt that the doggedness of the Red Army commanders was inspired by bravado or confidence. It was inspired by fear. Try saying to Stalin that you were not ready in March 41.
Good point, but does it make a difference? In the end they wanted a preemptive strike, be it a doctrinaire outlook that valued offense above all else to the point that there were no alternative plans to it, be it wanting to appear aggressive and confident, be it being a faithful socialist or be it trying to put a resolute face on fear, thats what the RA brass was pushing for and only Stalin's gullibility prevented it from happening.

In the end Hess' flight pushed him over and he ordered a discrete mobilization IIRC, in this case he just gives more credibility to intelligence reports and acts according to what he always knew, that there was going to be a fight to the death between fascism and communism sooner rather than later.

User avatar
sitalkes
Member
Posts: 471
Joined: 18 Feb 2013, 01:23

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#22

Post by sitalkes » 04 Dec 2015, 01:12

When playing Hearts of Iron III (as a relatively new player starting from the 1939 scenario) the Russians launched a surprise attack on Germany while my best troops were still finishing off England. This worrying situation turned out to be to my benefit as the Russians began to have supply problems and I was able to counter-attack and surround their advancing columns in an area with better infrastructure and with shorter supply lines than would be possible in Russia. It was a close run thing but pretty soon I was able to get my units out of Britain and then the invasion of Russia was much easier than it might have been. The Germans also got political/diplomatic benefits from being invaded (by communists) rather than the other way around. So I think a Russian attack would be their worst option and defence in depth (the 1812 strategy) best.

Carl Schwamberger
Host - Allied sections
Posts: 10056
Joined: 02 Sep 2006, 21:31
Location: USA

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#23

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 09 Dec 2015, 17:46

Have to agree with the last, at least where the game board is concerned. Beck when 3rd Reich game was popular the Red Army occasionally made a preemptive attack into Poland. There were some advantages, but overall the Soviet strength & operational/tactical ability 1939 through 1941 was not up to the task. Unless France was still in the game the little khaki colored Soviet pieces were in deep trouble when the German army counter attacked.

I saw one other game, using the old Europa system, where the Soviet player limited his initial attacks & changed the strategy to mobilizing a in depth defense with reserves. The attenuated spoiling attacks set back the German offensive a week or two at a Red Army cost far less than the June losses OTL. What the reality would have been in 1941 I can't say for certain, but suspect it would have been better than the historical events.

Bryce2004
Member
Posts: 16
Joined: 18 Dec 2015, 18:53
Location: Oklahoma

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#24

Post by Bryce2004 » 20 Dec 2015, 09:12

I think even with the Red Army deployed in depth by March 1941 the Germans would still plowed the Red Army under like it did in reality in the Summer of 1941.
The Red Army was ill-equipped and led by inexperienced officers and incompetent political generals (the experienced officers and generals purged and shot or imprisoned). The German army in 1941 was very experienced and led by competent officers and generals. The Soviets would have inflicted higher casualties so maybe the offensive stalls out sooner.
If the Soviets tried a preemptive strike I think you would have seen it fail quickly due to the reasons I gave above. I also think a German counterattack focused North of the Pripett Marshes may have resulted in a bigger disaster for the Soviets.

User avatar
Don71
Member
Posts: 332
Joined: 30 Jan 2011, 15:43

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#25

Post by Don71 » 21 Dec 2015, 02:28

What I don't realy understand is, why this thread is at the what if category!

Fom many books and especially Glantz, the UdSSR and Stalin had all this informations and were preparing for it unofficially.
The UdSSR did a hidden mobilization since March 1941 and the complete Red Army was at 100% alert at June of 1941.
Stalin didn't want to provoke Hitler/Germany, but he was well aware and informed about operation Barbarossa and was preparing for it unofficially and hidden since March 1941.
It is a common myth that the UdSSR, Staling and the Red Army were surprised by the german attack.

Carl Schwamberger
Host - Allied sections
Posts: 10056
Joined: 02 Sep 2006, 21:31
Location: USA

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#26

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 07 Jan 2016, 05:53

Bryce2004 wrote:I think even with the Red Army deployed in depth by March 1941 the Germans would still plowed the Red Army under like it did in reality in the Summer of 1941...
Not quite like OTL. It would have been a tougher field to plough. Witha Red Army deployed to mitigate somewhat its weaknesses Axis losses will be higher & the attack is liable to run out of steam sometime in November vs December 1941. A 20% higher weekly loss rate for the Axis means the Germans lose over 950,000 men by 30 November vs 790,000 of OTL.
Don71 wrote:...
It is a common myth that the UdSSR, Staling and the Red Army were surprised by the german attack.
In stratigic terms it is a myth. Your points about the red Army mobilization ware entirely correct. However in tactical or operational terms there was suprise.

1. The soldiers were in their barracks & camps. Artillery & tanks were in maintiance parks

2. HQ were manned by only a small night watch section.

3. War code books were locked away

4. War communications networks were not set up.

5. War ammunition was not deployed, it was in the dumps.

6. Major units from battalion to corps were deployed for training & not in their war positions.

I could go on, but its clear from the books the Red Army was caught pants down on 22 June.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15589
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#27

Post by ljadw » 07 Jan 2016, 19:27

There would be no difference : in the OTL the situation of the Red Army was abysmal bad, it would be the same in the ATL.

Sid Guttridge
Member
Posts: 10158
Joined: 12 Jun 2008, 12:19

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#28

Post by Sid Guttridge » 07 Jan 2016, 20:44

Hi Guys,

As it transpires, Stalin had already done enough on a strategic level in 1939-40 to be able to make massive operational and tactical errors, suffer horrendous losses and still win.

How?

He had annexed enough space to ride out such mistakes and wastage and let the German advance run out of steam.

Cheers,

Sid

User avatar
stg 44
Member
Posts: 3376
Joined: 03 Dec 2002, 02:42
Location: illinois

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#29

Post by stg 44 » 07 Jan 2016, 21:18

Sid Guttridge wrote:Hi Guys,

As it transpires, Stalin had already done enough on a strategic level in 1939-40 to be able to make massive operational and tactical errors, suffer horrendous losses and still win.

How?

He had annexed enough space to ride out such mistakes and wastage and let the German advance run out of steam.

Cheers,

Sid
And had very powerful allies that bankrolled his war effort via Lend-lease.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15589
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: March 1941, Stalin is finally convinced the Germans are about to attack...

#30

Post by ljadw » 07 Jan 2016, 21:29

Sid Guttridge wrote:Hi Guys,

As it transpires, Stalin had already done enough on a strategic level in 1939-40 to be able to make massive operational and tactical errors, suffer horrendous losses and still win.

How?

He had annexed enough space to ride out such mistakes and wastage and let the German advance run out of steam.

Cheers,

Sid
What errors ? :o

Post Reply

Return to “What if”