What if Tsarina Elizabeth of Russia lived *at least* several years longer?

[Futurist]

Any thoughts on this?

[Sid Guttridge]

With Elizabeth alive, a defeatist Frederick the Great's opinion on 6 January 1762 was "We ought now to think of preserving for my nephew, by way of negotiation, whatever fragments of my territory we can save from the avidity of my enemies".

Two weeks later, after learning of her death on 5 Jasnuary, his spirits had revived "The sky begins to clear...... I have received the news of a great event."

It seems likely that Prussia was doomed had Elizabeth lived and that Germany would therefore have had to look elsewhere for a solid core to consolidate around. Had German unification still occurred, it seems likely that it would be later, weaker and less militarized. However, it might also never have occurred at all.

Cheers,

Sid.

[Futurist]

With Elizabeth alive, a defeatist Frederick the Great's opinion on 6 January 1762 was "We ought now to think of preserving for my nephew, by way of negotiation, whatever fragments of my territory we can save from the avidity of my enemies".

Two weeks later, after learning of her death on 5 Jasnuary, his spirits had revived "The sky begins to clear...... I have received the news of a great event."

It seems likely that Prussia was doomed had Elizabeth lived and that Germany would therefore have had to look elsewhere for a solid core to consolidate around. Had German unification still occurred, it seems likely that it would be later, weaker and less militarized. However, it might also never have occurred at all.

Cheers,

Sid.

Several questions:

1. Do you agree with me that Prussia will lose Silesia to Austria and both East Prussia and Pomerania to Poland (since Russia itself doesn't have a common border with Prussia yet) after the end of the Seven Years' War in this scenario?
2. Does Poland still get partitioned in this scenario?
3. If the answer to question #2 is Yes, then would Prussia actually be allowed to participate in the partition(s) of Poland in this scenario?
4. What exactly happens to Europe after the start of the French Revolutionary Wars in this scenario?

Any thoughts on these questions of mine, Sid (and others)?

[Sid Guttridge]

I can't answer any of those questions with any authority, but my best guesses are:

1) Silesia would certainly be lost, and Saxony regain its independence, but I don't recall Poland as being a player in the Seven Years War.

2&3) If Poland still gets partitioned, it would be less likely to include Prussia, or Prussia's spoils would likely be less.

4) Prussia was pretty impotent in the French Revolutionary War because the war machine inherited from Frederick the Great was increasingly ponderous and obsolescent. The "Cannonade of Valmy" saw it off without a real fight and the later Jena-Auerstadt Campaign was a disaster. So, perhaps no change at all in the course of the French Revolutionary Wars.

Cheers,

Sid.