Vichy France as a German ally in the war

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stg 44
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Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#1

Post by stg 44 » 17 Apr 2016, 23:38

This is going to sound crazy, but hear me out. Erich Raeder proposed as part of his Mediterranean strategy in 1941 to make a lot of concessions to Vichy France to get them as an active belligerent in the war against Britain so the Axis could get their fleet. If possible then the French would effectively shut down the Western Mediterranean and be able to bomb Gibraltar from their colonies in Morocco or at least let the Germans do so. Both Oran and Casablanca are within 300 miles of Gibraltar and the French have naval bases available to be able to ambush transit through the Straits and use air units to strike British shipping moving East. Politically was it at all feasible? I mean clearly the Germans would have had to make massive concessions like returning nearly all the industrial equipment taken, all PoWs, and return administration of their country back to Vichy at a minimum. If they did so would the French have been open to the idea if it meant getting out of reparations too and being an ally of Germany, rather than a conquered nation? I mean clearly they could be subordinate to Germany and probably be forced to sign on to things like a customs union and perhaps even in the long run a common currency and agree to German debt deals during the war, but that was a far better fate than waiting for the Germans to win and give them a horrible long term peace; the armistice deal was insufferable as it was. So after Mers-el-Kabir could the French have been open to the deal if offered? And if so would they really have pursued the war seriously enough to be a boon to the Axis war effort? And how would the British have handled it militarily and politically?

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Re: Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#2

Post by Futurist » 18 Apr 2016, 00:20

stg 44 wrote:This is going to sound crazy, but hear me out. Erich Raeder proposed as part of his Mediterranean strategy in 1941 to make a lot of concessions to Vichy France to get them as an active belligerent in the war against Britain so the Axis could get their fleet. If possible then the French would effectively shut down the Western Mediterranean and be able to bomb Gibraltar from their colonies in Morocco or at least let the Germans do so. Both Oran and Casablanca are within 300 miles of Gibraltar and the French have naval bases available to be able to ambush transit through the Straits and use air units to strike British shipping moving East. Politically was it at all feasible? I mean clearly the Germans would have had to make massive concessions like returning nearly all the industrial equipment taken, all PoWs, and return administration of their country back to Vichy at a minimum. If they did so would the French have been open to the idea if it meant getting out of reparations too and being an ally of Germany, rather than a conquered nation? I mean clearly they could be subordinate to Germany and probably be forced to sign on to things like a customs union and perhaps even in the long run a common currency and agree to German debt deals during the war, but that was a far better fate than waiting for the Germans to win and give them a horrible long term peace; the armistice deal was insufferable as it was. So after Mers-el-Kabir could the French have been open to the deal if offered? And if so would they really have pursued the war seriously enough to be a boon to the Axis war effort? And how would the British have handled it militarily and politically?
Couldn't a better move for Vichy France have been to wait and see whether or not the Soviet Union will quickly collapse before entering World War II on Nazi Germany's side?


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Re: Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#3

Post by stg 44 » 18 Apr 2016, 00:26

Futurist wrote:
stg 44 wrote:This is going to sound crazy, but hear me out. Erich Raeder proposed as part of his Mediterranean strategy in 1941 to make a lot of concessions to Vichy France to get them as an active belligerent in the war against Britain so the Axis could get their fleet. If possible then the French would effectively shut down the Western Mediterranean and be able to bomb Gibraltar from their colonies in Morocco or at least let the Germans do so. Both Oran and Casablanca are within 300 miles of Gibraltar and the French have naval bases available to be able to ambush transit through the Straits and use air units to strike British shipping moving East. Politically was it at all feasible? I mean clearly the Germans would have had to make massive concessions like returning nearly all the industrial equipment taken, all PoWs, and return administration of their country back to Vichy at a minimum. If they did so would the French have been open to the idea if it meant getting out of reparations too and being an ally of Germany, rather than a conquered nation? I mean clearly they could be subordinate to Germany and probably be forced to sign on to things like a customs union and perhaps even in the long run a common currency and agree to German debt deals during the war, but that was a far better fate than waiting for the Germans to win and give them a horrible long term peace; the armistice deal was insufferable as it was. So after Mers-el-Kabir could the French have been open to the deal if offered? And if so would they really have pursued the war seriously enough to be a boon to the Axis war effort? And how would the British have handled it militarily and politically?
Couldn't a better move for Vichy France have been to wait and see whether or not the Soviet Union will quickly collapse before entering World War II on Nazi Germany's side?
To be clear the Mediterranean strategy with an Axis Vichy would have to be in lieu of Barbarossa, because if you make the concessions to France to get the alliance there isn't the material to launch Barbarossa.

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Re: Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#4

Post by Futurist » 18 Apr 2016, 00:29

stg 44 wrote:
Futurist wrote:
stg 44 wrote:This is going to sound crazy, but hear me out. Erich Raeder proposed as part of his Mediterranean strategy in 1941 to make a lot of concessions to Vichy France to get them as an active belligerent in the war against Britain so the Axis could get their fleet. If possible then the French would effectively shut down the Western Mediterranean and be able to bomb Gibraltar from their colonies in Morocco or at least let the Germans do so. Both Oran and Casablanca are within 300 miles of Gibraltar and the French have naval bases available to be able to ambush transit through the Straits and use air units to strike British shipping moving East. Politically was it at all feasible? I mean clearly the Germans would have had to make massive concessions like returning nearly all the industrial equipment taken, all PoWs, and return administration of their country back to Vichy at a minimum. If they did so would the French have been open to the idea if it meant getting out of reparations too and being an ally of Germany, rather than a conquered nation? I mean clearly they could be subordinate to Germany and probably be forced to sign on to things like a customs union and perhaps even in the long run a common currency and agree to German debt deals during the war, but that was a far better fate than waiting for the Germans to win and give them a horrible long term peace; the armistice deal was insufferable as it was. So after Mers-el-Kabir could the French have been open to the deal if offered? And if so would they really have pursued the war seriously enough to be a boon to the Axis war effort? And how would the British have handled it militarily and politically?
Couldn't a better move for Vichy France have been to wait and see whether or not the Soviet Union will quickly collapse before entering World War II on Nazi Germany's side?
To be clear the Mediterranean strategy with an Axis Vichy would have to be in lieu of Barbarossa, because if you make the concessions to France to get the alliance there isn't the material to launch Barbarossa.
OK. However, in such a scenario, wouldn't there still be a risk of Britain holding out and of both the U.S. and the Soviet Union eventually entering World War II on Britain's side?

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Re: Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#5

Post by Futurist » 18 Apr 2016, 00:32

Basically, the issue with Vichy France joining the Axis Powers is that such a move can significantly backfire on Vichy France in the event that an alliance of Britain, the U.S., and the Soviet Union will defeat the Axis Powers. After all, in such a scenario (and without hindsight), Vichy France can expect to permanently lose Alsace-Lorraine and, more important, experience a Morgenthau Plan-style permanent dismantlement of most or all of its industry. :(

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Re: Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#6

Post by stg 44 » 18 Apr 2016, 01:04

Futurist wrote: OK. However, in such a scenario, wouldn't there still be a risk of Britain holding out and of both the U.S. and the Soviet Union eventually entering World War II on Britain's side?
That is the question. Could France stand up to a Franco-German-Italian alliance?
Futurist wrote:Basically, the issue with Vichy France joining the Axis Powers is that such a move can significantly backfire on Vichy France in the event that an alliance of Britain, the U.S., and the Soviet Union will defeat the Axis Powers. After all, in such a scenario (and without hindsight), Vichy France can expect to permanently lose Alsace-Lorraine and, more important, experience a Morgenthau Plan-style permanent dismantlement of most or all of its industry. :(
The USSR is neutral in 1940-41 and German leaning, supplying war materials for free in 1941. With France onside Germany neither really needs to worry about a USSR entry given that Italy and Japan are also in the Axis; it would be Stalin's nightmare scenario to fight them. The US still out and less likely to join the war if France is involved; in fact with France joins in before the LL act is signed that might well derail that bill because of the presumption among the US Congress that the Brits are going to exit the war soon. Without LL then Britain would be doomed. France really has no particular reason to fear having to fight either the US or USSR in 1940-41.

As to France as a nation having to fear any of the above...I highly doubt it. The Petain regime would be blamed and de Gaulle installed after the war, just as Italy was pardoned and allowed to switch sides and avoid blame.

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Re: Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#7

Post by Futurist » 18 Apr 2016, 01:29

stg 44 wrote:
Futurist wrote: OK. However, in such a scenario, wouldn't there still be a risk of Britain holding out and of both the U.S. and the Soviet Union eventually entering World War II on Britain's side?
That is the question. Could France stand up to a Franco-German-Italian alliance?
Hang on--I'm confused--why exactly would France need to stand up to an alliance in which it itself a member?
Futurist wrote:Basically, the issue with Vichy France joining the Axis Powers is that such a move can significantly backfire on Vichy France in the event that an alliance of Britain, the U.S., and the Soviet Union will defeat the Axis Powers. After all, in such a scenario (and without hindsight), Vichy France can expect to permanently lose Alsace-Lorraine and, more important, experience a Morgenthau Plan-style permanent dismantlement of most or all of its industry. :(
The USSR is neutral in 1940-41 and German leaning, supplying war materials for free in 1941. With France onside Germany neither really needs to worry about a USSR entry given that Italy and Japan are also in the Axis; it would be Stalin's nightmare scenario to fight them.
That's not quite what I am thinking of here, though. Rather, I am thinking of the Axis failing to knock Britain out of World War II and then have Hitler still decide to invade the Soviet Union in order to acquire his desired Lebensraum as well as to either destroy or significantly weaken Communism.
The US still out and less likely to join the war if France is involved;
Maybe; indeed, a lot might depend on exactly how much Hitler allows France to rearm. Indeed, if France's army will remain a mere shadow of its 1939-1940 army, then Britain and the U.S. might not have that much to fear (well, if they are able to defeat or at least neutralize the French Navy).

Also, I find it hard to believe that Hitler would allow France to restore its army strength to its 1939-1940 levels (or anywhere near those levels, for that matter) due to the fear and possibility of France stabbing Nazi Germany in the back later on.
in fact with France joins in before the LL act is signed that might well derail that bill because of the presumption among the US Congress that the Brits are going to exit the war soon.
Maybe; indeed, please see my points right above. :)
Without LL then Britain would be doomed.
Agreed, but I am unsure that Lend-Lease would be butterflied away in this scenario.
France really has no particular reason to fear having to fight either the US or USSR in 1940-41.
Agreed, but this might not remain the case for 1942 ... or 1943 ... or 1944 ... or 1945 ... et cetera.
As to France as a nation having to fear any of the above...I highly doubt it. The Petain regime would be blamed and de Gaulle installed after the war, just as Italy was pardoned and allowed to switch sides and avoid blame.
To be fair, though, Italy did permanently lose the Istrian Peninsula after the end of World War II and was on the verge of losing Trieste as well.

Also, to what extent was Italy's relatively lenient post-World War II treatment "reasonably foreseeable" in, say, 1942? Completely serious question, for the record.

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Re: Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#8

Post by stg 44 » 18 Apr 2016, 01:33

Futurist wrote: Hang on--I'm confused--why exactly would France need to stand up to an alliance in which it itself a member?
Could Britain stand up to a Franco-Italian-German alliance. Mistyped the first time.

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Re: Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#9

Post by Futurist » 18 Apr 2016, 01:41

stg 44 wrote:
Futurist wrote: Hang on--I'm confused--why exactly would France need to stand up to an alliance in which it itself a member?
Could Britain stand up to a Franco-Italian-German alliance. Mistyped the first time.
In the short-term, that probably depends on how much help Britain gets from the U.S.; meanwhile, in the long-term, that probably depends both on the amount of U.S. help and on whether or not Nazi Germany still invades the Soviet Union in this scenario.

Also, though, if anyone here has any naval data for various countries in 1940, I would certainly be interested in seeing it. :) After all, I suspect that Vichy France's main contribution to the fight against Britain would be naval (due to the fact that a strong, powerful Vichy French Navy probably wouldn't be able to significantly threaten Nazi Germany--which in turn would very likely mean that Hitler would be much more willing to approve of this than to approve of a large, powerful Vichy French Army (an Army which, if sufficiently strong, can probably pose a significant threat to Nazi Germany)).

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Re: Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#10

Post by pugsville » 18 Apr 2016, 02:45

Vichy was a ramshackle alliance of various interests groups which did not have great cohesion and were focused on internal enemies. mostly negative motivations, there was little real support for the regime, it would have splintered under the pressure of trying to force an unpopular policy. simply did not have the control to embark of decisive policies like this. some looking the other way, support for the germans by acts of omission and stuff sure.

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Re: Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#11

Post by thaddeus_c » 18 Apr 2016, 02:54

believe they could have gained at least clandestine use of French bases, allowing Vichy regime to continue claim of neutrality.

occurred to me that France would not be allowed to keep submarines under any peace treaty? http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 1&t=221786

THAT would be one element of fleet Vichy hard pressed NOT to concede AND the one Germans would have plausibly been able to use.

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Re: Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#12

Post by thaddeus_c » 18 Apr 2016, 03:01

pugsville wrote:Vichy was a ramshackle alliance of various interests groups which did not have great cohesion and were focused on internal enemies. mostly negative motivations, there was little real support for the regime, it would have splintered under the pressure of trying to force an unpopular policy. simply did not have the control to embark of decisive policies like this. some looking the other way, support for the germans by acts of omission and stuff sure.
there was important POD in OP, no Operation Barbarossa, while at peace with USSR they controlled left wing in France. also not allowing Japanese into Indochina and aiding in Iraqi rebellion through Vichy-controlled Syria the combination of actions that soured regime on collaboration.

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Re: Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#13

Post by pugsville » 18 Apr 2016, 03:57

for the vichy regime internal enemies mattered. the communists were internal enemies and the attitudes had little to do with external affairs in the the war. Vichy french and communist/left French are not going work together. USSR did not control the left, the nazi-soviet pact was a huge blow, the left basically was hiding going WTF , the USSR pressing French communists to take up arms against Britain would not have worked. Give the French left arms they would fight the French right. Vichy is a barely suppressed civil war. Vichy a deeply unpopular regime relying for active support a number of seperate groups all trying to use the regime to settle with various internal enemies.

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Re: Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#14

Post by stg 44 » 18 Apr 2016, 09:24

pugsville wrote:for the vichy regime internal enemies mattered. the communists were internal enemies and the attitudes had little to do with external affairs in the the war. Vichy french and communist/left French are not going work together. USSR did not control the left, the nazi-soviet pact was a huge blow, the left basically was hiding going WTF , the USSR pressing French communists to take up arms against Britain would not have worked. Give the French left arms they would fight the French right. Vichy is a barely suppressed civil war. Vichy a deeply unpopular regime relying for active support a number of seperate groups all trying to use the regime to settle with various internal enemies.
The French communist party was actively undermining the French war effort in support of directives from Moscow:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_o ... ne_1941.29
Domestically, the PCF led anti-war actions, but although the party published pacifist propaganda for soldiers they stopped short of inciting desertion. The role of the PCF in alleged sabotage operations, against armaments plants, has been a point of debate among historians. In 1951, A. Rossi listed a number of sabotage operations initiated by the PCF against armaments factories throughout France,[9] but later historians have downplayed the PCF's role in any such actions, stating that they were isolated cases.[10]

Nevertheless, the PCF limited openly anti-German or anti-occupation actions and instead adopted virulently anti-British, anti-imperialist, anti-socialist and anti-Vichy/Pétain rhetoric which shied away from directly attacking the Nazi occupiers.[11]

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Re: Vichy France as a German ally in the war

#15

Post by pugsville » 18 Apr 2016, 09:49

read the whole article. just after the bit you quoted is stuff which refutes the idea that communists would actively fight against Britain.

the PCF was turning against the occupation by august 1940, and there a natural opposition to Vichy and the Germans despite official PCF policy/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_o ... ne_1941.29

"Moscow later denounced the attempts of the PCF to lobby the Germans for the party's legalization. In August 1940, a new policy categorically forbade any expressions of solidarity with the occupiers and limited interactions between the PCF and the occupiers."
"
Simultaneously, however, many communists and PCF cells reorganized clandestinely and began organizing opposition to the Germans and Philippe Pétain's regime in Vichy. One of the major actions organized by the PCF against the occupation forces was a demonstration of thousands of students and workers, staged in Paris on 11 November 1940. In May 1941, the PCF helped to organize more than 100,000 miners in the Nord and Pas-de-Calais departments in a strike. On 26 April 1941, the PCF called for a National Front for the independence of France with the Gaullists.[13] The Vichy French police, and later the Germans, began to arrest and intern large number of communists."

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