Germany Enters the 1877-1878 Russo-Turkish War on Turkey's/the Ottoman Empire's Side

[Futurist]

Let's say that Otto von Bismarck accidentally hits his head on something extremely hard in late 1870 and has a personality change. Afterwards, Bismarck decides to annex resource-rich Briey and Longwy in addition to annexing Alsace-Lorraine in 1871. In turn, the loss of revenue that results from the loss of resource-rich Briey and Longwy cripples France for decades to come. Meanwhile, with the threat of France permanently eliminated, Bismarck (with German Kaiser Wilhelm I's and the German Reichstag's extremely reluctant approval) goes to war against Russia in 1877 with the excuse that he wants to help the Ottoman Empire preserve the balance-of-power in the Middle East (and with the desire to acquire some Russian territory for Germany).

Anyway, how successful would Germany have been in a war against Russia in 1877-1878 in this scenario? Frankly, I would say that Germany would have good odds of achieving at least a limited victory against Russia in this scenario considering that Germany's military leadership already has a lot of battlefield experience from fighting and winning Prussia's previous wars against Denmark, Austria, and France and considering that Russia will simultaneously have to fight against both Germany and the Ottoman Empire while Germany will only have to fight against Russia in this war. (For the record, Germany and Russia appear to have been about equally industrialized in 1877-1878 if one looks at their total industrialization: http://www.beaconschool.org/~bfaithfu/g ... charts.pdf .)

However, I would certainly like to hear what other, more knowledgeable people have to say about this scenario of mine.

Indeed, any thoughts on this scenario of mine?

[GregSingh]

France would immediately back Russia against Germany. England would do the same. A-H would probably back Germany because of vacuum in the Balkans. So we would end up with 1914 situation.
With bolshevik revolution having no chance to happen in 1880's, that scenario would probably cause total defeat of Germany, something like 1945.

[Futurist]

France would immediately back Russia against Germany.

Unlikely due to the crippling that France will endure after its 1871 loss of resource-rich (specifically iron ore-rich) Briey and Longwy in this scenario.

England would do the same.

Unlikely due to the fact that Britain was an Ottoman ally back in 1877-1878.

A-H would probably back Germany because of vacuum in the Balkans.

Maybe ... maybe.

that scenario would probably cause total defeat of Germany, something like 1945.

Extremely strongly disagreed.

[GregSingh]

France lost Briey and Longwy in 1914. That did not prevent being in a winners camp in 1918...

England would always choose France over Otomans, regardless of what current treaties were...

[Futurist]

France lost Briey and Longwy in 1914. That did not prevent being in a winners camp in 1918...

Except that France was able to spend the revenue from the iron ore at Briey and Longwy from the previous 40 years on improving its own military as well as on improving Russia's military, industry, and economy. In turn, this certainly wouldn't be the case in this scenario.

England would always choose France over Otomans, regardless of what current treaties were...

Why exactly do you say that, though?