Plausibility of the U.S continuing to supply Japan vs the Soviets 1939.

[Graniterail]

AIUI after the battle of Khalkin-Gol significant rogue hawkish elements of the Japanese Army in Manchuria were determined to expand the conflict into an all out invasion of the Soviet Far East in 1939, even after the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop treaty & the outbreak of war in Europe. They were only restrained by the direct intervention of higher ranking officers flown out from the Japanese Home Islands demanding they stop.

Let's imagine those higher ranking officers don't make it, say they're in a plane crash. A disconnect occurs between the Japanese diplomats trying to negotiate peace with the Soviet Union & what's happening on the ground. The Soviets for their part figure that the Japanese can't be trusted & that the situation can't be allowed to continue, they have to resolve their position in the East to secure it before matters in the West deteriorate.

So we have a Soviet-Japanese war going on in 1939. America at this point in time was still supplying Japan with Oil, with Scrap Iron, with the means to make war against China. I can see how a debate might develop in the U.S over whether or not to enact the same kind of sanctions against Japan that happened in real life in 1941.

On the "FOR" side, the U.S has been anticipating an eventual war with Japan for much of the 20's & 30's. By committing themselves to war against both China (as in OTL) & the Soviet Union, Japan has left little spare to threaten the U.S. Since Japan launched a war of aggression against the Soviets, the U.S will face little diplomatic backlash for cutting off trade. By cutting off trade with Japan, China (which America supports in it's defensive war against Japan) will fare far better & the U.S will have even more flexibility to deploy what limited forces it had to cover contingencies in the Atlantic & Europe if things go badly there by the time the sanctions start to bite (late 1940, early 1941 - OTL the U.S was deploying to Liberia, Iceland, keeping an eye on the North-West coast of Brazil). The same goes for British forces in Malaya & French Forces in IndoChina, there won't be as much need to keep them there if Japan doesn't even have the oil to get to them. If they're very prescient, a few analysts might grasp the danger of the Soviets facing a two-front war by 1941 if something goes wrong for the Entente in France in 1940 which could leave the U.S without a counter-balancing power to the Fascists in Eurasia.

On the "AGAINST" side, at this point in time in 1939 with the Molotov-Ribbentrop treaty it appears as if the Soviets are an ally of Hitlerite Germany. They're certainly circumventing the blockade, supplying Germany with the wheat it needs to continue it's war in Europe. If the Soviets don't like the U.S supplying Japan, then America might suggest they stop supplying Germany. It's also still the era of the Great Depression, there's all the economic arguments for continuing trade & making whatever hard currency they can out of Japan that existed for supplying them in their war against China at this stage OTL. If the U.S doesn't supply Japan oil & other warstuffs the Dutch/British/French still might. The British and French were fairly strained for cash as it was. There's all the arguments for 'they're both our enemies, let them kill each other' & the Anti-Communist ones too. The U.S might look forward to simply purchasing a lot of Japan's islands in the Pacific once Japan runs out of cash to keep buying warstuffs, bases further West will improve their position in the Pacific quite a bit.

Let's go a little further down this what if, let's say America does decide to keep selling Warstuffs to Japan & the Soviets for their part decide to keep selling warstuffs to Germany. It's May 1940. Germany invades France. Only this time, it doesn't go quite right. Butterflies in the timeline have affected German plans, German luck, French plans or all of the above. Maybe the paratroopers in the Netherlands don't capture all the bridges, maybe the French have decided it's prudent to keep a strategic reserve or the CinC of the French army changes his mind & actually keeps a telephone in his HQ. The breakthrough of OTL is blunted or never happens & the war becomes the sort of attritional war that France & Britain wanted to fight against Germany. Italy takes a look at it & decides it's better to just profit as a neutral selling to both sides.

Soviet mobilization, manpower, industry & resources kicks in. Japan begins to run out of money & is forced back. Germany isn't coming to help. The war drags on into 1941 & 1942. Germany is beaten by France and Britain in 1942. The public in France and Britain are tired of war and don't want to shed blood to save Japan's bacon. Japan asks for America to arbitrate a peace between it and the Soviet Union. There's a sticking point in the negotiations, maybe Stalin is demanding an apology & Japan's leaders are unable to 'lose face'. America doesn't want a total victory for the Soviets, they don't want the Soviets to have a warm water port in Korea, they want to limit their influence in China.

Will they lend money to Japan they don't think Japan can pay back to keep Japan in the fight?

Going a little further down the track, the Soviets have taken Korea & are hitting Japan's shipping with the VVS flying out of Busan, Korea hitting Japanese merchants in the inland sea & submarines pre-fabricated in the West shipped over the Trans-Siberian & assembled in Vladivostok/Korea fighting in the Pacific. Japan is starving & on the verge of collapse.

Is America prepared to go to war to contain the Soviets? Or is isolationism/pacifism too strong?

[OpanaPointer]

Not much time to develop a policy between the signing of the M-R pact and the invasion of Poland. The Tripartite Pact had put the Japanese solidly in the Axis camp in the minds of most Americans. There had been continuous complaints about supplying Japan with materials of war since 1937.

[thaddeus_c]

wasn't the delay in Soviets invading Poland from east at least in part due to conflict with Japan? here they are continuing, escalating the war?

would Germany try and conquer all of Poland or leave rump state for Soviets to deal with?

[OpanaPointer]

Not that I'm aware of. They just wanted to see how the Wehrmacht did, and to be sure that as many :Polish troops as possible were drawn westward. If the German invasion had fizzled I think the Soviets would have lain doggo.

[thaddeus_c]

Not that I'm aware of. They just wanted to see how the Wehrmacht did, and to be sure that as many :Polish troops as possible were drawn westward. If the German invasion had fizzled I think the Soviets would have lain doggo.

we might both be correct "The Soviets were distracted by crucial events relating to their ongoing border disputes with Japan. They needed time to mobilize the Red Army and they saw a diplomatic advantage in waiting until Poland had disintegrated before making their move. The undeclared war between the Soviet Union and the Empire of Japan at the Battles of Khalkhin Gol (Nomonhan) in the Far East ended with the Molotov–Tojo agreement between the USSR and Japan which was signed on 15 September 1939, with a ceasefire taking effect on 16 September 1939." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_invasion_of_Poland