Allies in the Mediterranean 1942, Balearic Islands play?

[Graniterail]

The decisions made by the U.S/U.K in the Mediterranean theatre, their missed opportunities or potential alternatives have been poured over in a number of ways. E.G:

What if Britain didn't deploy forces to defend Greece in 1940 & attempted to finish the Italians before the Germans could reinforce them?

What if Britain does deploy forces to defend Greece in 1940, but abandons defence of the mainland as hopeless & concentrates on holding Crete?

What if of the three landing forces for Operation Torch, the Western Force had been omitted, instead using it for an early capture of Tunisia?

What if Amphibious lift & shipping capacity used in the Pacific (Guadalcanal) in late 1942 was borrowed from to allow for four instead of three task forces, securing Tunisia before German reinforcement/retreat & securing the rear in case Spain entered the war?

What if Sardinia is invaded instead of Sicily?
If Sardinia & not Sicily, what then?
Corsica?
- & on to an Operation Dragoon in late 1943?
- Or landings near Genoa?
Or straight from Sardinia onto landings near Rome or North of it?

What if the mainland of Spain was invaded?

What if the Dodecanese campaign wasn't attempted, where could the resources have been better used?
What if the Dodecanese campaign was attempted, but with added resources taken from elsewhere?
BAytown, Anzio etc..
....................

All of these topics seem to have been fairly well covered, I don't want to rehash them.

There does seem to be one opportunity that hasn't been addressed though, the Balearic Islands.
Ibiza, Mallorca & Minorca.

Using search brings up a comment http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 1#p1981161listing the forces they had as Garrisons (in 1944 at least).

I can see a few rough possibilities to start with at least (from most risky/impatient to more careful/plodding).

- One withholds the forces used in the Eastern Task force until land based air cover (going with the combat radius of 200 miles that was the limitation for the Salerno landings as things happened IRL here) can be established from a little to the East of Oran (around Mostaganem). Then those forces are used in an invasion of Ibiza, from which further air cover can be extended to (enable further invasions of) Mallorca & Minorca.

- Another employs the forces used OTL in operation Torch, following shortly (air cover is established near Algiers) after with some shipping capacity that would have otherwise been used at Guadalcanal is used for an invasion of Mallorca.

- Another roughly follows OTL Operation Torch up until the collapse of Axis resistance in Tunisia, but diverts some of the forces that would otherwise be used in the invasion of Sicily for an earlier invasion of the Balearics.

Given the limited Garrison, the lack of fuel, transport infrastructure & naval power Spain suffers it doesn't seem likely she can hold them against Allied determination to take them. There's all the regular issues with Spain being in the war (in short her economy is ruined by the civil war & her population could starve without allied assistance that happened OTL, she might invade Portugal & there's issues with access to Tungsten for Germany there, Britain sourced Iron Ore from Spain, it saved shipping miles).

What does holding the Balearics in late 1942 to Mid 1943 gain the Allies though?

To begin with, if the invasion of Sardinia/Corsica would force the Germans to spread their forces in anticipation of a potential invasion all throughout the Mediterranean, an invasion of the Balearics does something similar. It places the East Coast of Spain all the way up to the French port of Perpignan within fighter range. It's close to doing the same with Sardinia & Marseilles & Toulon (German estimation of the importance of Allied fighter ranges was unsure as things happened, during the landings at Salerno a couple of divisions were held back at Naples).

One prospect, possibly available in mid to late 1943 is a landing between Tarragona & Valencia in Spain. The Spanish rail grid uses a different gauge to that in Germany and France. Tarragona is about 300km by road from the Border break of Gauge. This is the distance from a railhead at which resupply of an army by truck begins to become strained in this period. On Spains poor roads no doubt the Germans would have much difficulty logistically responding to an allied landing. The purpose would be not to 'liberate Spain' but to drag the Germans out to fight the landings in force to battle under Allied Air superiority, only for a "Operation Dragoon" style landing in their rear at Perpignan cutting them off.

..............

Now I don't happen to think this is even better than any decision that was made, it's just interesting to try to consider the possibilities. If anyone has any maps of Spain like were made for France or Japan, i.e

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/09/ ... 630654.jpg

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/US ... ics1-4.jpg

http://www.history.army.mil/books/wwii/ ... /p_122.jpg

that would be great to look at.

[Kingfish]

What does holding the Balearics in late 1942 to Mid 1943 gain the Allies though?

To begin with, if the invasion of Sardinia/Corsica would force the Germans to spread their forces in anticipation of a potential invasion all throughout the Mediterranean, an invasion of the Balearics does something similar. It places the East Coast of Spain all the way up to the French port of Perpignan within fighter range. It's close to doing the same with Sardinia & Marseilles & Toulon (German estimation of the importance of Allied fighter ranges was unsure as things happened, during the landings at Salerno a couple of divisions were held back at Naples).

Too much risk for very little gain. An allied controlled Balearic would only benefit them if they chose to land on the SE coast of Spain (with all its implications). Otherwise the air cover would provide very little -if any- support for a move eastward.

[Graniterail]

Too much risk for very little gain. An allied controlled Balearic would only benefit them if they chose to land on the SE coast of Spain (with all its implications). Otherwise the air cover would provide very little -if any- support for a move eastward.

Ok, I'll try looking at some possible implications then.

OTL Hitler doubled down on Tunisia in 1943 & wound up losing 300,000 troops there. Later on in OTL, the invasion of Sicily induced Hitler to cut his losses short at the Battle of Kursk. This perversely saved some German forces from the Soviet counter-attack.

If the Balearics are taken either in late 1942 or early 1943, is it enough to prevent the Germans from trying a Eastern 1943 Summer Offensive? I'm guessing no, it's still going to look like their last chance to win the war for them.

Will Spain be forced into the war? I'm guessing yes, they're a Fascist regime, they can't just suffer the loss of National territory & stay silent & continue to enjoy the support of their political base. Will Franco accept a fait accompli, join the Allies? I wouldn't count on it (however much he might see the writing on the wall & want too), there's too much Axis sympathy among the Elite & there's likely going to be bloodshed in taking the islands (would any Garrison accept an ultimatum? Hopeful at best). Possible counter-argument here is Spain's pre-existing economic dependency on the Allies at this point in time (they needed Grain, Oil. They knew they weren't going to get it from Germany. Maybe the thought of 'how am I going to feed my family' will rise to the top when push comes to shove).

Hitler will likely see Spain as one of the Allies if she doesn't actively resist, in which case - invasion. If Spain does resist, will he send forces to 'assist' (fortifying beaches, garrisoning ports etc)? I'm guessing yes.

It seems likely more German forces will be committed to Spain whichever the case. The upside for the Allies is that in the event Spain goes to war against them they're not faced with the immediate logistical demands of waging a land campaign on the mainland, the balance of the Burden is uneven.

Can diverting the forces needed to take the Balearics slow down the capture of Tunisia by a week (the rough time a Soviet Counter Offensive might need German forces at Kursk to continue to stay engaged)? I'd wager yes. That's another week for Hitler to try to futilely reinforce Tunisia. If the fall of Tunisia is moved back a bit, the invasion of Sicily is likely moved back too..

So on the 'things could go right' side we have

- More German forces sent to and then captured in North Africa.
- More German forces diverted to cover potential invasion beaches (or additionally attacking Spain), logistics problems etc.
- A worse defeat for the Germans at Kursk? Maybe the Soviets can get some of the Ukrainian grain from the East bank of the Dnieper that's usually harvested in July/August?
- The Azores & Canaries wind up in Allied hands (Spain and Portugal will be in the war one way or another now likely), permitting their airfields to launch anti-sub patrols earlier (October 1943 for the Azores OTL).

There's probably downsides here in any case i.e

- Germany gets it's hands on all the Tungsten it wants in Iberia once it bashes it's way through.
- Spain/Portugal starve like Greece, bad press for the Allies.

......

I don't particularly think it's a good or bad idea, just that it's unexplored & interesting.
If anyone wants to try a (how) 'things could go wrong' side, by all means go for it.

[BDV]

Re: Spain and Portugal

Expect these two countries to scream bloody murder but do zilch directly against AngloAmerican aggression.

Franco did not join Adolf and Benito in 1940, ain't gonna happen in late '42

[Kingfish]

The major problem I see with this is it diverts precious resources (and time) away from the primary goal, and that is the destruction of the Axis forces in North Africa.

You've laid out several options, but all require concessions that would far outweigh whatever benefits an allied controlled Balearic would offer. For instance, diverting shipping assets away from Guadacanal might result in the delay of OP Watchtower. The implication of that alone is worthy of another WI.

Likewise, discarding the Eastern Torch landings in favor of Balearic would grant the Axis time to expand their Tunisian bridgehead. Arnim could meet the Allies in the Dorsal mountain range instead of to the east of it.

[Graniterail]

The major problem I see with this is it diverts precious resources (and time) away from the primary goal, and that is the destruction of the Axis forces in North Africa.

You've laid out several options, but all require concessions that would far outweigh whatever benefits an allied controlled Balearic would offer. For instance, diverting shipping assets away from Guadacanal might result in the delay of OP Watchtower. The implication of that alone is worthy of another WI.

Likewise, discarding the Eastern Torch landings in favor of Balearic would grant the Axis time to expand their Tunisian bridgehead. Arnim could meet the Allies in the Dorsal mountain range instead of to the east of it.

Are the Axis forces in N/A doomed anyway after the Second Battle of El Alamein, closer British bases to Malta allowing them to reinforce it, sever Axis logistic lines?

Likewise with Guadalcanal/Op Watchtower, challenging the Japanese further to the South-East (Vanuatu/New Caledonia) seems to only stretch their limited merchant shipping.

It's something of a conscious rope-a-dope strategy I don't think the Allies were game to risk trying at the time, that I can see.

[Kingfish]

Are the Axis forces in N/A doomed anyway after the Second Battle of El Alamein,

We can say that thanks to 20/20 hindsight, but any WI should be considered within the context of what the opposing sides knew at the time. They apparently didn't believe so, as evidenced by the post-Alamein flow of reinforcements into the theater.

closer British bases to Malta allowing them to reinforce it, sever Axis logistic lines?

This did have an effect on Axis LOCs into Tripoli, but with Tunisia under Axis control the LOCs were both shorter and shifted further west. This shift also afforded them better air cover from bases in western Sicily and Sardinia. This air cover will not be contested until the allies build airfields as close as possible to the Algerian/Tunisian border - all the more reason to land/push eastward as quickly as possible.

Likewise with Guadalcanal/Op Watchtower, challenging the Japanese further to the South-East (Vanuatu/New Caledonia) seems to only stretch their limited merchant shipping.

Again, 20/20 hindsight. Allied planners felt the construction of the airfield at Lunga Point to be a threat serious enough to warrant going ahead with Op Watchtower. I don't recall any talk of allowing the Japanese the initiative to continue their drive into the SE Pacific in the hopes they outstrip their supply lines.

[Carl Schwamberger]

Thinking this through a Allied occupation of the Baleric islands makes sense only if Spain either is a Axis ally, OR if Spain aligns with the west Allies. Either way the Balerics are definitely a secondary item in this new situation.

[Graniterail]

Re: Spain and Portugal

Expect these two countries to scream bloody murder but do zilch directly against AngloAmerican aggression.

Franco did not join Adolf and Benito in 1940, ain't gonna happen in late '42

Thinking this through a Allied occupation of the Baleric islands makes sense only if Spain either is a Axis ally, OR if Spain aligns with the west Allies. Either way the Balerics are definitely a secondary item in this new situation.

So you doubt the perception of BDV that Spain's response would be to not react directly?
There was another violation of their neutrality they rolled over in the face of OTL.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation ... e_landings

"Torch was the first major airborne assault carried out by the United States. The 2nd Battalion, 509th Parachute Infantry Regiment flew all the way from Britain, over Spain, intending to drop near Oran and capture airfields at Tafraoui and La Sénia, respectively 15 miles (24 km) and 5 miles (8 km) south of Oran"

What do you think Hitler's reaction to the Balearics & Azores being occupied by the Anglo-Americans between late 1942 & mid 1943 would tend to look more like?

- Demand Spain enter into active combat on the Axis side, or failing them adhering to that launch an invasion over the Pyrenees to occupy the entire Iberian peninsula.

- Demand Spain permit German "anti-invasion" Garrisons in her ports & on her beaches to "maintain her Neutrality".

- Demand Spain enter into active combat on the Axis side, or failing them adhering to that deploy forces to a defence line in Southern France.

- Something else.

[Kingfish]

- Demand Spain enter into active combat on the Axis side, or failing them adhering to that deploy forces to a defence line in Southern France.

I see this as the most likely course of action.

The suspicions the Germans had about an Italian volt-face would be even more pronounced with Spain, especially when one considers how dependent it was on Allied aid.

Better to commit only light forces, if any, south of the Pyrenees and set about fortifying the mountain chain in anticipation of an allied move in that direction.