Model gets his way, a different Battle of the Buldge

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
Post Reply
User avatar
sitalkes
Member
Posts: 471
Joined: 18 Feb 2013, 01:23

Model gets his way, a different Battle of the Buldge

#1

Post by sitalkes » 13 Sep 2016, 05:24

I was watching this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUP8JUodsCA and they said that Walter Model wanted to change the plan to that of an encirclement of the Allied armies on the German side of the Meuse by a classic pincer movement. Only if that was successful would any crossing of the Meuse be attempted. That would mean that the German flanking armies would get the most troops and the centre troops the least support (so perhaps Bastogne would have less significance). Do you think this plan had any better chance of success? If it did succeed, would it make any difference?

User avatar
Kingfish
Member
Posts: 3348
Joined: 05 Jun 2003, 17:22
Location: USA

Re: Model gets his way, a different Battle of the Buldge

#2

Post by Kingfish » 13 Sep 2016, 15:33

It stood a better chance at pocketing the overstretched divisions in VIII Corp, but the difficult terrain coupled with allied mobility and air superiority would have prevented much beyond that.
The gods do not deduct from a man's allotted span the hours spent in fishing.
~Babylonian Proverb


Graniterail
Member
Posts: 73
Joined: 11 Oct 2015, 10:00
Location: NZ

Re: Model gets his way, a different Battle of the Buldge

#3

Post by Graniterail » 14 Sep 2016, 06:57

The plan relies on "good" (poor, overcast etc) weather conditions to stop Allied Air interdiction.
Hitler is going to double down on any offensive no matter what the generals say by this stage.
So they might as well try to sell it as some 'fluid, agile offensive' which attacks during spells of cloudy weather & 'repositions for the next attack phase' during clear skies to play to his aggressive sympathies.

Um how would you define success? Do you think that even in the maximal success case for them they could consolidate any gains & reposition in order to do anything about the Vistula-Oder offensive that kicks off four weeks later?

Svrclr
Member
Posts: 20
Joined: 16 Sep 2016, 15:43
Location: Aiken, SC USA

Re: Model gets his way, a different Battle of the Buldge

#4

Post by Svrclr » 23 Sep 2016, 05:52

The plan, (often known as the small solution) was to try and encircle the US 9th Army on either side of the Aachen salient, and along with US VIIth Corp on their southern flank (and probably get some of Vth corp while they are at it). The northern pincer would have the Meuse river in Holland and northern Belgium protection their right, while the southern pincer has the Ardennes helping to protect their flank.

The goal is to destroy a large part of the American Army in Europe. That leaves a big hole in the Allied Army. If the weather is still good (poor flying weather), the 5th Pz Army and 6th SS Pz Army are in a position to drive on Antwerp potentially cutting off the 21st (British) Army Group. IF that were to happen, it would be something akin to France in 1940 all over again. If the Germans don't drive on Antwerp, it forces the British to retreat back out of Holland to join up with what is left of the US 1st and 3rd Armies in Belgium. Given the weather and allied air superiority is probably more likely that the attack would not make it all the way to Antwerp.

IMHO, this is a very strong move. It shortens the distance the attackers have to go. The 9th Army is still badly depleted by the fighting during the fall around Aachen. It is relatively easy to gain tactical surprise and then collapse the flanks, allowing the encirclement to take place. Then the German infantry of the 15th and 7th Armies are in strong position to delay/defeat the inevitable counterattack aimed at relieving the encircled troops at Aachen, especially if the 2 panzer Armies are there to support them. It gives the Germans a tactical victory without exposing their offensive armies to great risk. The lull that it buys them would allow the Wehrmacht to reorganize their armies in the East. It has the advantage over the historical attack that it allows the Germans to achieve a victory first (destruction of 9th Army) then go for the knockout blow once that initial objective has been achieved.

I think it is not the kind of thing Hitler would go for. He wants the big victory to knock the western allies out of the war. And his distrust of the old school army generals, plus his needing to be the guy calling the shots makes it pretty important to do things his way, regardless of what the general staff recommends.

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/US ... nnes-I.jpg

Graniterail
Member
Posts: 73
Joined: 11 Oct 2015, 10:00
Location: NZ

Re: Model gets his way, a different Battle of the Buldge

#5

Post by Graniterail » 23 Sep 2016, 17:24

What do you think Allied re-supply by air would be capable of by this stage of the war?
I would think that if any Western Allied unit of Corps size let alone Army size became surrounded there'd be not only the C-47's dropping in what they could but Strategic bombing of Germany would go on Hiatus while the B-17's, B-24's & Lancasters etc were pulled in to drop supplies.

User avatar
Kingfish
Member
Posts: 3348
Joined: 05 Jun 2003, 17:22
Location: USA

Re: Model gets his way, a different Battle of the Buldge

#6

Post by Kingfish » 23 Sep 2016, 18:45

The problem I see with the "small solution" plan is it would have been directed at a section of front where the Americans had a fairly good force density, and in terrain that really doesn't lend itself to maneuver warfare.
The gods do not deduct from a man's allotted span the hours spent in fishing.
~Babylonian Proverb

Aber
Member
Posts: 1124
Joined: 05 Jan 2010, 22:43

Re: Model gets his way, a different Battle of the Buldge

#7

Post by Aber » 23 Sep 2016, 19:03

Svrclr wrote:
IMHO, this is a very strong move. It shortens the distance the attackers have to go. The 9th Army is still badly depleted by the fighting during the fall around Aachen. It is relatively easy to gain tactical surprise and then collapse the flanks, allowing the encirclement to take place. Then the German infantry of the 15th and 7th Armies are in strong position to delay/defeat the inevitable counterattack aimed at relieving the encircled troops at Aachen, especially if the 2 panzer Armies are there to support them. It gives the Germans a tactical victory without exposing their offensive armies to great risk.

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/US ... nnes-I.jpg
Suggest you look at a map with the deployment of Allied divisions on it, especially on the northern flank.

US Army has 16 divisions between Geilenkirchen and Monschau, with much of the front on the Roer river with open plains beyond. The Germans will not be able to concentrate their forces and breakthrough the Allied front simply due to congestion, bridging issues, and lack of forest cover; even if Ninth Army troops were short of riflemen they still have plenty of artillery.

The British have XXX Corps in reserve in Belgium.

On the southern flank the Allied defences are much thinner, and a breakthrough is possible as OTL. However the Germans still have the issue of breaking through Elsenborn ridge when US 1st Army swings its right flank back.

maltesefalcon
Member
Posts: 2047
Joined: 03 Sep 2003, 19:15
Location: Canada

Re: Model gets his way, a different Battle of the Buldge

#8

Post by maltesefalcon » 27 Sep 2016, 01:43

The original post (and Model) are correct in the assessment that the original plan was overambitious to the point of being virtually impossible to carry out.

In part the Germans were desperately short of petrol, which hampered both training and operations for the offensive.

They also greatly underestimated both the ability and resolve of the US forces to fight back.

A simple downsizing of the offensive would still need to address the above concerns to realize a major allied defeat.

User avatar
Cult Icon
Member
Posts: 4472
Joined: 08 Apr 2014, 20:00

Re: Model gets his way, a different Battle of the Buldge

#9

Post by Cult Icon » 27 Sep 2016, 03:08

Hitler called this the 'half solution' and rejected it.

Model called the real Ardennes offensive the "10% solution"- as in he felt that it had 10% chance of success.

Carl Schwamberger
Host - Allied sections
Posts: 10056
Joined: 02 Sep 2006, 21:31
Location: USA

Re: Model gets his way, a different Battle of the Buldge

#10

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 30 Oct 2016, 02:34

Given Hitlers drug use it might be called the 7% solution.

Post Reply

Return to “What if”