Impact of Stalin Leaving Moscow in October 1941?

[stg 44]

Supposedly in the worst of the Moscow Panic of mid-October 1941 Stalin seriously considered evacuating the city quietly to go with the government to Kubiyshev, but ultimately opted to stay and ordered the NKVD to crack down hard on looters and disorder, which helped end the panic when he then appeared at a military parade in Red Square and gave a speech. What if they bailed though and left? Could the panic be contained or would it get out that Stalin left and civil order break down totally and compromise the defense of the city? If so how badly would the loss of the city impact Soviet ability to counterattack, especially with Stalin and the government moving hundreds of miles away and reestablishing themselves to the East?
http://ww2history.com/key_moments/Easte ... _in_Moscow
https://books.google.com/books?id=M-Fz- ... ic&f=false

[BDV]

Well, Josip Vissarionovitch did not set foot in Leningrad once, and those folk (soldiers and populace) defended gallantly. At Stalingrad the men of the 61st did same.

Beyond preventing the fall into lawlessness and banditry (which Jukoff's martial rule would see to, like in historical), what could the police state apparatus, and its head ogre, do? The basic motivation of the RKKA soldier, as far as it transpires from the historical anecdote, was not fear of Stalin but displeasure at the invader.

[stg 44]

Well, Josip Vissarionovitch did not set foot in Leningrad once, and those folk (soldiers and populace) defended gallantly. At Stalingrad the men of the 61st did same.

Beyond preventing the fall into lawlessness and banditry (which Jukoff's martial rule would see to, like in historical), what could the police state apparatus, and its head ogre, do? The basic motivation of the RKKA soldier, as far as it transpires from the historical anecdote, was not fear of Stalin but displeasure at the invader.

Moscow and the situations in Leningrad and Stalingrad were very different. With the capital in danger of falling, 1 million men defending the approaches to the city being wiped out at Vyazma and Bryansk, plus half of the city of Moscow getting ready to flee, Stalin bugging out with the rest of the government could be the final straw that turns the citizens of the city to mass panic and cause a flight out. In Stalingrad civilians ran away as the Germans came and were evacuated, the people of the Leningrad region fall back on the city with prepared defenses, there was no prepared defenses past the Mozhiask Line and some 2 million civilians were prepared to flee East to escape the Germans. That would badly disrupt the road and rail system, which would paralyze Soviet ability to bring reinforcements into the front lines west of the city from the east. The NKVD crack down only came after Stalin opted to stay and it seems Stalin's choice to stay and appear in public to reassure the public with military parades and speeches in Red Square did as much to reassure the public as the crackdown and marshal law. With the head of the dictatorship fleeing it is quite a bit harder to restore public order, even with violence when it spreads to the rest of the public, who already were convinced the city was about to fall; Stalin's flight would confirm fears and whip up the panic to new heights.

Based on the first hand accounts of the battle of Moscow from both sides the Soviets were breaking down and had a fair bit of 'harsh justice' dished out to keep combat units in line, same as in Stalingrad. That isn't a popular subject for even modern Russian historians to tackle, but the morale of the Red Army and public was very fragile in October 1941. Sure, many soldiers were ready to fight to the bitter end, hated the invaders, and were not particularly anti-Stalin, but there were many that were convinced the war was lost, that this was the end, and they would desert if they had the chance, but NKVD order was imposed harshly. As the Germans ended up faltering long enough for the Soviets to continue to bring up reinforcements until the weather finally forced a pause in the offensive, then Soviet morale recovered and they finally were convinced they could hold, so the breakdown in morale was reserved, but in October things were very uncertain and I get the impression it wouldn't have taken much to break the Soviets; Stalin's decision to stay and impose order no matter the cost does appear to have saved the situation. A mass exodus from the city would have cut off the critical flow of reinforcements to the front in mid-October as the Germans were breaching the Mozhiask Line.

Russian wikipedia on the Moscow Panic of October 1941:
https://translate.googleusercontent.com ... Ziri9iFonQ
According to the above order was only restored on the 19th the day AFTER Stalin opted to stay and fight, as well as order a harsh crack down and marshal law.

Edit: as to Soviet army morale in 1941, apparently Stalin decided to issue the draconian order of the death penalty for not fighting to the death:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_No._270

And Soviet willingness to resist the Germans in 1941 widely varied:
https://books.google.com/books?id=BgQpf ... 41&f=false
Some fought to the death, in other cases entire units surrendered in parade order. There is no generalization possible about Soviet willingness to fight, it varied from man to man and situation to situation.

[BDV]

The civvies might've panicked. They did, historically. And the military restored the order.

We know in retrospect that by the fall of Tver/Kalinin the pooch had been fatally screwed by GROFAZ's over promoted field exterminators (in cooperation with the HB deskjockey duo in Berlin).

So Muscovites were a day late at panicking.

[Terry Duncan]

Just a question, but why would the Soviets tell the people Stalin had left Moscow even if he had done so? It would certainly be easy enough to conceal as Stalin was not overly prolific in making public appearances, people believed he was in the Kremlin doing his job mostly. As it was people only knew he was there for certain when he appeared at the parade in Red Square, so it would not be hard to hide his actual location from the masses.

[BDV]

Things do get out through the grapevine.

But a Stalin body double could have been employed to confuse the populace; although with the Martial Law in place the police state becomes irrelevant.

[stg 44]

Just a question, but why would the Soviets tell the people Stalin had left Moscow even if he had done so? It would certainly be easy enough to conceal as Stalin was not overly prolific in making public appearances, people believed he was in the Kremlin doing his job mostly. As it was people only knew he was there for certain when he appeared at the parade in Red Square, so it would not be hard to hide his actual location from the masses.

The regime wouldn't say that, but the public saw the officials getting out of town and the story would get out, plus Stalin wouldn't be around for public appearances and the military parades that reassured the public.

[stg 44]

The civvies might've panicked. They did, historically. And the military restored the order.

We know in retrospect that by the fall of Tver/Kalinin the pooch had been fatally screwed by GROFAZ's over promoted field exterminators (in cooperation with the HB deskjockey duo in Berlin).

So Muscovites were a day late at panicking.

The military did not restore order, the NKVD did AFTER Stalin stayed and resolved to get the city back in order and stopping the evacuation. The threat of the fall of Moscow isn't necessarily over by diverting 3rd Panzer Army (though that did hurt a lot), the civilians could panic worse and not be kept in line by marshal law, which would lead to the city falling as the soldiers at the front are cut off from reinforcements and supplies due to the civilian self evacuation choking the rail and road systems.

[PF]

probably the whole LeningrandMoscow/Stalingrand line would have fallen not to mention the Caucausses oil fields which would have fueled the German war machine for years....!

[BDV]

The military did not restore order, the NKVD did AFTER Stalin stayed and resolved to get the city back in order and stopping the evacuation. The threat of the fall of Moscow isn't necessarily over by diverting 3rd Panzer Army (though that did hurt a lot), the civilians could panic worse and not be kept in line by marshal law, which would lead to the city falling as the soldiers at the front are cut off from reinforcements and supplies due to the civilian self evacuation choking the rail and road systems.

You have a good source for those statements?

Why/how would the civvies choke the rail system?

[stg 44]

The military did not restore order, the NKVD did AFTER Stalin stayed and resolved to get the city back in order and stopping the evacuation. The threat of the fall of Moscow isn't necessarily over by diverting 3rd Panzer Army (though that did hurt a lot), the civilians could panic worse and not be kept in line by marshal law, which would lead to the city falling as the soldiers at the front are cut off from reinforcements and supplies due to the civilian self evacuation choking the rail and road systems.

You have a good source for those statements?

Why/how would the civvies choke the rail system?

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... rev=search

[BDV]

I don't see how that supports the ability of disorganized throngs to disrupt the well oiled Soviet state machinery. This has not dissolved even in Leningrad. Also at that time (mid-October), the forces that defended the approaches to Moscow and thwarted both the dash to Moscow and the breakout from Tver were already deployed.

[stg 44]

I don't see how that supports the ability of disorganized throngs to disrupt the well oiled Soviet state machinery. This has not dissolved even in Leningrad. Also at that time (mid-October), the forces that defended the approaches to Moscow and thwarted both the dash to Moscow and the breakout from Tver were already deployed.

Leningrad was a different situation, people fled INTO Leningrad for safety before the city was cut off, then people were trapped. With Moscow the situation to the east was wide open and the Germans were coming directly at the city, so people wanting to flee would head east. In this scenario Stalin leaves, rather than stays to keep morale up, so rioting never stops. Reinforcements and supplies are disrupted as people, as historically happened, mob the rail stations and roads trying to get out of the city. Soviet troops on the Mozhiask defense line were still being pushed by in mid-May and effectively destroyed in combat. In Moscow historically the state machinery was evacuated to Kuibyshiev in October, Stalin just didn't go with them. In this scenario in addition to the government, which the people knew left, would be joined by Stalin, so the public is going to get the impression the capital is effectively lost so their historical behavior in mid-October isn't being quelled. The Dash on Moscow was already being slowed by the weather and defenses by the time the riots started, but they happened anyway historically.