Turkey joins the Axis in 1940-41

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Carl Schwamberger
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Re: Turkey joins the Axis in 1940-41

#181

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 11 Nov 2010, 00:40

Nations don't go to war without a reason. What reason would Turkey have to attack the Soviet Union during WWII?
I agree, a lot would have to change with Turkey's external siuation or its internal politics.

Getting back tot the logisitics question. If this railroad terminates at Erzum, either stops there, or it is impractical to make effective use of a Soviet rail connection then it will be difficult to sustain offensive operations into the mountains. Even light infantry divisions will require 200 - 250 tons per day. Much more if there is intense fighting requiring large ammounts of artillery ammunition. Aside from the ammunition there would be fuel for vehicals & fodder for draught animals. A army of ten divisions with corps & army support groups will need over 4,000 tons per day for a sustained moderate level of attacking. Add in a mechanized corps, a cluster of forward airfields, ect.. & the need can run up past 6,000 - 7,000 - 8,000 tons per day. Assuming the railroad to Erzum can carry that consistently taking the supplies from the railhead to the combat battalions will be difficult over the roads like that in the photograph posted above. Would the Turks have the motor vehicals to carry the cargo, or would they depend largely on horse & oxen dragging wagons?

I supose the potiential choke point of the railroad ferry at the Bosphorus could be gotten around by bringing the cargo via barge on the Danube River & hence to the docks on the east shore. Barge might be more efficient than the railroads through the Balkans for much of the bulk cargo.

Dave Bender
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Re: Turkey joins the Axis in 1940-41

#182

Post by Dave Bender » 11 Nov 2010, 17:11

Germans support of Arab nationalism would have made a Turkish comeback in Iraq and Saudi counterproductive
The Berlin to Baghdad Railway provides Turkey with a huge bargaining chip. I am relatively certain Germany would have given Turkey a free hand in former Ottoman territory in exchange for the use of this rail line.

Fixing "Arab nationalism" is a no brainer. Turkey would exterminate any ethnic group that caused problems. Just as they did with Armenia in 1915 and the Greeks of Asia Minor during 1922.


magicdragon
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Re: Turkey joins the Axis in 1940-41

#183

Post by magicdragon » 18 Nov 2010, 23:13

Dave Bender
The Berlin to Baghdad Railway provides Turkey with a huge bargaining chip. I am relatively certain Germany would have given Turkey a free hand in former Ottoman territory in exchange for the use of this rail line.

Fixing "Arab nationalism" is a no brainer. Turkey would exterminate any ethnic group that caused problems. Just as they did with Armenia in 1915 and the Greeks of Asia Minor during 1922.
Dave I doubt if the Axis (inc. Italy) wanted to re establish Turkey as a regional Superpower?

Arab nationalism would have been way down of their list of things to "fix" in 1941. It would have been far more logical to have sort to establish a Axis Garrisons in Iraq, Palestine and Egypt. To keep control of the Suez and Iraq oil, plus put pressure on Iran and the Saudis.

If you want to use the Turkish to "fix" something, lest them sort out potential opposition from guerilla groups in the Caucasus region. This would have saved far more German lives.

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Re: Turkey joins the Axis in 1940-41

#184

Post by magicdragon » 18 Nov 2010, 23:26

Carl Schwamberger
I suppose the potiential choke point of the railroad ferry at the Bosphorus could be gotten around by bringing the cargo via barge on the Danube River & hence to the docks on the east shore. Barge might be more efficient than the railroads through the Balkans for much of the bulk cargo.
Carl, what about using the Turkish ports in the North East such as Trabzon? Take the cargo straight along the coast to nearby ports? There would still be a choke point because I guess the roads would have been a bit basic but no more than Mother Russia was circa 1941.

The other issue is that Turkish attach would have potentially needed only 5 German divisions. Another other force could have been dispatched via Iraq (shorter route to Baku). Its supply line via Basra to Mosul.

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establish Turkey as a regional Superpower?

#185

Post by Dave Bender » 19 Nov 2010, 02:46

1938 GDP (measured in millions of 1990 USA dollars).
342,351 Germany
297,619 UK
187,402 France
143,981 Italy
29,759 Sweden
29,338 Turkey

Turkey's GDP was less then 10% of German GDP. Almost identical to the GDP of Sweden. I have difficulty picturing WWII Germany being afraid of them.

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Re: Turkey joins the Axis in 1940-41

#186

Post by magicdragon » 19 Nov 2010, 22:04

Dave Bender
Turkey's GDP was less then 10% of German GDP. Almost identical to the GDP of Sweden. I have difficulty picturing WWII Germany being afraid of them.
Dave, I never used the word afraid but given the logic of Turkey wanting to regain former Ottoman territory - this would have led to potential invasions of Iraq, Syria and Iran. Vichy would have been less than pleased. The Turks would have been back in Jerusalem not a big issue for Hitler but would gone down like a stone with the Italians and some German leaders. They would been able improve their GDP with Iraq, Iranian and Saudi oil. Probably wound up the Brits who would have had some sort of peace deal with Hitler which involved protecting the British Imperial interests i.e Anglo-Iranian Oil and India. If I was the Bulgarians I would be asking for extra tanks, planes and guns.

Besides which if the Turkish army is storming through the Middle East - how many are fighting the Russians? You would need maybe 10-15 divisions just to garrison Iraq, Palestine and Saudi and about the same amount to take on the Iranians - WHY would the Germans encourage this??

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Re: Turkey joins the Axis in 1940-41

#187

Post by merdiolu » 22 Nov 2010, 20:50

Interesting topic here. I would like to add my own review. In 1914 Ottoman Empire entered the WW1 due to highly effective German influance in diplomacy/economy of Young Turk goverment ( which was quite an admirer of Germany ) of Ottoman State and above all German influance on Ottoman Army. German officers and military instructors were spread everywhere in Ottoman armed forces....( though Ottoman High Command and most of army/corps/division commanders were Turkish ) Young Turk leaders of empire entered war with Central Powers because of German promises of material help ( Ottoman State had no war industry , they were complately dependent to German for equipment , munitions , hardware etc ) , large Germans credits to economy ( two billion Marks if I remember correctly was paid in 1914 to Ottoman State Bank ) and belief of German's supreme confidence about a short war and quick victory...Oh let's not forget Russian desire to spread out in Balkans and capture Straits ( Russian expansion policy for almost 200 years ) caused quite an anxiety in Turks against Russia...

In 1940-41 though conditions were quite different.....Men leading Turkish goverment in this period still had bitter memories about previous World War and adventurism which caused Turkish involment ( President Inonu , Army Chief of Staff Marshall Cakmak etc were all military officers in WW1 ) Institutions of Turkish Republic especially army were complately independent unlike in 1914. There was not a strong German diplomatic/economic/military effort to seduce Turkey just like it happened in 1914.....There was a strong Axis pressure to put Turkey into Steel Pact yes but they did not offer many rewards...Germans did not give any promise economic or material help in the extent they did in WW1. And Turkish economy especially industry was still in its infancy in 1940. Anyway last time Ottoman Army marched on Caucasus in 1918 ( after Brest-Litovsk signed between Central Powers and Bolshevist Russia ) Germans actually sidelined Turkish forces and tried to lay claim on every where Ottoman forces captured on Azerbaijan and Caspian region...So even they had offered Caucasus or Middle East Turkish goverment had no reason to trust either Hitler or Mussolini this time... Actually Mussolini was claiming on Turkish regions on South and Western Anatolia before the war !

And British/French ( then USA ) diplomacy was not idle to keep Turkey neutral or to put it in Allied side either. They kept strong diplomatic and economic contactcs during entire war. 1939 Turkey signed a non-agression pact with Britain and France. In December 1940 British goverment tried to form a Balkan Alliance against Germany's southern flank ( which failed but still an effort to affect Turkish diplomacy )

Under these conditions it is understandable why Turkey kept neutral.....

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Re: Turkey joins the Axis in 1940-41

#188

Post by magicdragon » 28 Nov 2010, 01:13

merdiolu

Explains very well the upward struggle the Axis would have had to trying to get the Turkish government onboard.

There would be a number of preconditions for the Axis to fulfill
  • Get the British out of the equation
  • Offer a secret deal on Syria - once the Soviet situation is reversed
  • Offer a deal on Baku oil
  • An symbolic deal on the Dodecanese handing some back from Italian control to the Turks - with a deal on further negotiations
  • Lots of weapons - might be easier than you think - the Turkish had experience of using French equipment MS 406 aircraft, H35 tanks and artillery. Using captured French weapons the Germans could have least given the Turkisg army and airforce a boost


However, the more you look a this list you see how damned hard it would have been!!!

merdiolu
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Re: Turkey joins the Axis in 1940-41

#189

Post by merdiolu » 29 Nov 2010, 20:37

magicdragon wrote:merdiolu

Explains very well the upward struggle the Axis would have had to trying to get the Turkish government onboard.

There would be a number of preconditions for the Axis to fulfill
  • Get the British out of the equation
  • Offer a secret deal on Syria - once the Soviet situation is reversed
  • Offer a deal on Baku oil
  • An symbolic deal on the Dodecanese handing some back from Italian control to the Turks - with a deal on further negotiations
  • Lots of weapons - might be easier than you think - the Turkish had experience of using French equipment MS 406 aircraft, H35 tanks and artillery. Using captured French weapons the Germans could have least given the Turkisg army and airforce a boost


However, the more you look a this list you see how damned hard it would have been!!!

Thank you. I also can evaluate the factors you list

- Getting British out of equation was not easy since Churchill was quite interested in Balkans and Eastern Med Theater throughout whole war...Besides since Syria and Beirut was occupied by British and Commonwealth forces in May/June 1941 This along with British presence on Cyprus gave British extra leverage on Turkey

- I do not think even offering whole Caucasus ( which Germans had no intention obviously ) would change Turkish stance on neutrality...First they would like to see actual proof that Soviet Union can be beaten. Besides as I said in 1918 when Ottoman/German forces actually tried to conquer Caucasus together Germans actually pushed Turkish forces aside and tried to lay claim everywhere in Ajerbeijan and Chechenia. Turkish leaders had no intention to trust Germans this time.

- I can not imagine how a vain , egoistic and chivunist dictator like Mussolini could agree a shared hegomony on Dordenacese and Mediterranean region...As I said he even had a claim on Western Anatolia...

- Germans actually offered a lot of captured Czech/French weapons and equipment to Turkey as you said but Turkey only accepted some of it...Turkish military preffered US/British equipment/hardware much more as war progressed..... ( Turkey actually got Lend-Lease aid between 1942-1944 )


Only ways I could see Turkey might join Axis was

1) If German army could capture Caucasus in 1942 by itself ( which they had no power to do so anymore in that stage of war ) that might have brought additional pressure on Turkish goverment

2) If Germans threteaned Turkey with massive retaliations and war ( like bombing Istanbul and other big cities ) in 1940-41 period...Here President Inonu and his goverment played a masterful foreign diolomacy to keep out of Hitler's wrath ( unlike Yugoslavs who paid a terrible price because of it ) Turkey provided huge amounts of chrome ( a vital minaral for German war effort ) and grain for Germany until 1944 but meanwhile Turkish goverment continued to develop relations with Western Allies especially with British ( US had no interest on Balkans or Eastern Med.) Inonu and Churchill met several times during the war....

Carl Schwamberger
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Re: Turkey joins the Axis in 1940-41

#190

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 30 Nov 2010, 04:55

merdiolu wrote: - Germans actually offered a lot of captured Czech/French weapons and equipment to Turkey as you said but Turkey only accepted some of it...Turkish military preffered US/British equipment/hardware much more as war progressed..... ( Turkey actually got Lend-Lease aid between 1942-1944 )
Interesting. any sources you can point me to for the LL to Turkey? I am more than a bit curious how much of the US production went there. Particularly the sort of things that provisioned infantry divsions or air wings, such as trucks, radios, cannon.... Thanks

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Re: Turkey joins the Axis in 1940-41

#191

Post by LWD » 30 Nov 2010, 14:27

This page http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/ref ... B.html#III
indicates rather minimal amounts.
This page http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/ref ... ip-3A.html
down near the bottom lists 100 37mm guns.
This page http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/ref ... ip-3B.html
lists 1,869 trucks and some tool sets, again near the bottom.
This page http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/ref ... ip-3C.html
Lists a substantial amount of ammo, as before at the bottom of the page.
This one a rather minimal amount of signal equipment http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/ref ... hip-5.html
This one a bunch of shoes and entrenching tools plus some misc other items http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/ref ... hip-4.html
This one lists only one aircraft engine and no planes! http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/ref ... hip-7.html
More may be found poking around http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/ref ... index.html
This document turkey.usembassy.gov/11be1158/
(a pdf if I got it right) mentions the sum of $4,500,000 as fullfilling Turkeys LL requirements and also mentions
all lend-lease articles in the categories of machine tools and other productive machinery,
locomotives and other railroad rolling stock, and load-carrying trucks of 1 1/2 ton and greater capacity
This page seems to have some good background info:
http://yerelce.wordpress.com/2010/11/07 ... ld-war-ii/

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