Turkey joins the Axis in 1940-41

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Deterance
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#31

Post by Deterance » 24 Jun 2005, 17:09

Baltasar wrote: With Britain being pushed more and more out of Egypt, I would imagine Chruchill calling for more help there instead of mounting a small offensive in Iraq. Hence I would imagine the Allies would deploy those American divisions in Egypt rather than Iraq. It's be a question about what they can afford to loose and what not.
I agree completely :) , the Suez would normally be far more important than Turks in Iraq. USA would only land in Iraq if....
1. Turkish troops were also invading Soviet Union and nearing Caucus oil fields
2. The USSR was being pushed to collapse by Turkish advances towards oil
3. A collapse of USSR means Axis victory (100% unacceptable to USA)

Therefore the emergency solution is to land in Iraq, defeat Turkish forces in Iraq, then move into Eastern Turkey / Caucaus mountains and cut off Turkish troops near / at Caucaus oil fields.
Baltasar wrote:How many man would 5 divisions include? Their logistics would have to be build up at first an subs would be lurking in the atlantic.
I think by early 1942, German sinkings in well escorted convoys were starting to decline. In addition, the U Boats would be few in number and operating at their extreme range. They could sink ships, but not destroy the effort.
Baltasar wrote:
I'm also not sure if the US even had the transport capacity to move such an ammount of men and material to a remote place like that in early 1941. Shipping the men is the smallest problem, it's about food, spare parts, fuel etc.
I think they could, if the transport was part of a focused national effort considered to be of the highest strategic importance. Prevention of a Soviet collapse would meet this criteria. Also some food (bulk grain, rice) could be purchased from the local Iraqi economy. (relatively friendly)

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#32

Post by Terranix » 17 Sep 2005, 20:29

The American army was woefully unprepared for this kind've war at this time. Even assuming they could get themselves to Iraq and attack the Turks in the way you suggest, they would find themselves fighting a war comparable to the one against Vichy France in north-west Africa in late '42, but with the Turks a lot more determined given the knowledge that yes, they were definitely supposed to be resisting.

Further, if the Turkish attacks on the Caucasus had been at all succesful in the south then the whole Soviet Caucasus front would have probably collapsed (Stalin was personally "leading" the defence of Georgia, too--there's a small chance he could have somehow ended up bagged), and the GIs would find themselves pitted not only against Turks but against the veteran soldiers of the First Panzer Army, quite capable of giving them a number of bloody noses and flushed with victory (and more importantly, oil).

And all this on top of the fact that their precarious and lengthy supply route would be under constant threat from the Japanese, still very much in the fight at this stage, and the few U-boats in the area. It just dosen't seem at all feasible, this massive, sudden and decisive American intervention in the Middle East. I'd be more inclined to look at the limiting factors the threat of the Commonwealth soldiers in the area would place on any Turkish offensive into the Transcaucasus.


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#33

Post by Panzer6 » 18 Sep 2005, 10:41

Turkey joining the war in late 1940 means a victory for the axis. First, the Germans had not landed in North Africa yet, the Italians were still on thei own for a while. During late 1940 and early 1941, Turkey prepares for battle against Britain and the USSR. On March 1941, the turks with German air support take the pro-nazi iraq. Rommel and Afrika Corps prepare. The British prepare a defence. In April, the Turks and Germans launch an attack on either side of the Brit's. most of the british are on the west side, but Rommel captures all of OTL and Tobruk. The turks take all of French territory, and be on the borders of Egypt by early June 1941, and stop to prepare. Iraq would be free from Britain as an axis member, and probably send a few thousand men to fight the british and soviets.

By this time, Rommel has less opposition so can go a bit farther, and the British can't make a big push back. Operation barbarossa begins with Germany being just a bit weaker as a few air corps are in Turkey, but are worth it. The Germans make great gains and do a bit better. This little bit better is due to the Soviets needing about 6000 soldiers against turkey. Even so, the turks would have traveled 350 km, which leaves about 150km to the baku oil fields.

In 1942, the Germans do a totally different strategy. The turks launch a new attack which starts strong, this is due to 100 german officers and 1000 german soldiers working directly with turks helping the turks get better. This makes Germany focus on the North and Central groups and take Moscow. With a renewed assault, the Germans get within 5 km from encircling Moscow by July, and prepare to take the rest in August. In Egypt, Rommel would capture El Alamein in May, while the Turks push to within 20 km from the suez canal. US, who joins in December, does not have the power yet to make great changes. They do send a bit of Armor to North Africa in June, and a few infantry divisions. These are rushed to quickly into battle, and Rommel uses an amazing counter attack to weaken the 8th Army greatly. The Germans, who built up for another advance, attack towards Alexandria in July, and capture it in August. The Turks would have reached not only the Suez Canal, but the Baku oil fields as well. The Axis are exhausted, but are in a strong position.

In August, Germany launches the final offensive of the year and surround Moscow in a few weeks. The Soviets launch many attacks on the german ring of steel, but fail, as the winter sets in. Germany is no where capable of making an offensive manuvere, but have leningrad and moscow seiged. With Stalin in Moscow (we'll assume hes telling the truth) the Soviets prepare a surrender. In 1943, Moscow is severely weakened, and the Soviets surrender as Stalin is shot by a Ukrainian in the city. Germany is to get Ukraine, East Poland, Belarus, The Baltic's, and the Turks get all taken land. Germany pulls out of all occupied territory not given to Germany, and all war criminals are to be taken prisoners, including Stalin, and most of the high officer command, and party leaders. The soviets are to give to the Germans 50% of all current factories (under German watch), not build any more industry, not to make any new tanks/planes, and not to mobilize an army greater then 500,000 soldiers. Reperations to be a total 3 billion marks and to be paid over 15 years.

North Africa falls soon after, as Egypt falls when Vichy France puts a full effort to stop ally landings in Torch. The Germans put pressure on the allies to quit, but they do not. The germans start mass producing planes and building better industry in Poland and the Ukraine. The Holocaust begins killing many, and Britain under strain probably leaves as does US. Japan still feels US power, and surrenders after two nuclear bombs are dropped. Germany makes nukes 4 years later, and the new cold war begins.

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Andy H
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#34

Post by Andy H » 18 Sep 2005, 14:02

Panzer6

There is to much groundless speculation within your post.

Please keep to the 'facts' and the realisable WI.

No further comments please on individuals, as its unhelpful and deter from the main thrust of the thread.

Given the terrible state of the Turkish economy and the state of its armed forces,your ascertion that by Turkey joining the war means a Axis victory needs fleshing out.

Regards

Andy H

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#35

Post by Roddoss72 » 19 Sep 2005, 02:28

Sepas

Hate to burst your bubble mate but the, Turks kicked our backsides during the whole Galipoli campaign, involved on our side were the British, Australians, New Zealanders, French, Italians as well represtentatives from other British Empire nations, i would suggest you actually pick up a book or get onto a website that covers the entire Galipoli campaign from start to finnish, The Turks were exceptionally brilliant fighters, never gave in and rarely conceeded ground.

Now that off my chest, the most benefit of Turkey in the war on the Axis would be allowing the Italian Navy unfetted access to the Black Sea, and also the Turks would be able to launch mini offensives on Allied forces in the middle east thus forcing the allied forces into a two front war. And if Turkey allowed Germany to entrain its forces through Turkey then i believe a third front could have being launched through the Caucasus.
Last edited by Roddoss72 on 20 Sep 2005, 02:30, edited 1 time in total.

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#36

Post by Terranix » 19 Sep 2005, 14:29

What good would access to the Black Sea be to the Italians?

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Tim Smith
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#37

Post by Tim Smith » 19 Sep 2005, 17:13

Terranix wrote:What good would access to the Black Sea be to the Italians?
Italians can convoy supplies to southern Ukrainian and Crimean ports to supply the Axis armies in that region. (Italian forces were operating in that area.)

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#38

Post by Roddoss72 » 20 Sep 2005, 02:35

Terranix wrote:What good would access to the Black Sea be to the Italians?
Either wipe out or force the surrender of the Soviet Black Sea Fleet, open up landing sites along the western shores of the caucasus area and is there anything you can add in a positive way.
Last edited by Roddoss72 on 21 Sep 2005, 03:32, edited 1 time in total.

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#39

Post by Terranix » 20 Sep 2005, 14:12

I see. What did the Turkish fleet look like at around, say, 1942? Would it have performed at all well at whatever comprised the Soviet fleet in the area?

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#40

Post by Andy H » 21 Sep 2005, 11:43

Tim Smith wrote:
Terranix wrote:What good would access to the Black Sea be to the Italians?
Italians can convoy supplies to southern Ukrainian and Crimean ports to supply the Axis armies in that region. (Italian forces were operating in that area.)
Not disagreeing with that idea, though the additional strain on the Italian Navies fuel situation could have dramatic effect on its convoy protection duties in N.Africa and its Fleet op's against the British Fleet

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Andy H

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Terranix
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#41

Post by Terranix » 21 Sep 2005, 13:52

Yeah, the Black Sea would have probably still have been seen as a secondary theatre by the Italians, wouldn't it?

However, the chance for the Italians to achieve a surface victory over the inferior Soviet navy might have been a great morale booster--I can't find a single instance of the Italians sinking an Allied ship in a surface engagement 1940-43.

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turkey joined the axis 1940/1941

#42

Post by christopher nelson » 21 Sep 2005, 15:43

The turkish navy while not large did have the caspacity to aid the axis cause in the Black Sea. It still retain the two exGerman Imperial navy ships from World War I and it did have sever more modern destroyers. The ex German battle cruier Goben would have been more than a match for the Soviet capital ship available to the Black Sea fleet. With the addition of ships from the Royal Italian Navy the axis would have made the Black Sea into an Axis controled one.

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#43

Post by Andy H » 21 Sep 2005, 15:56

The ex German battle cruier Goben would have been more than a match for the Soviet capital ship available to the Black Sea fleet
The Russian BB Sevastopol should be able togive it a run for its money, armed with 12x12", against the Goeben's 10x11"

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If Turkey joined the axis 1940?1941

#44

Post by christopher nelson » 21 Sep 2005, 16:09

During World War I the "Turkish " Battle cruiser engaged the Russian navy many times and it the russians almost always came off at the encounter worse off than before. The russian designs, which were really based upon Italian naval ideas were not that good so it is anyones guess as to what the real result would be. But with additional support from the Italian and Romanian navies I doubt if the Soviet Black Seas fleet would survive.

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#45

Post by Christian W. » 21 Sep 2005, 16:14

The Sevastopol's were poorly armored even by pre-WWI standards.

Yavuz (ex-Goeben) would be faster and better armoured.

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