"Czechoslovakia '38-What If They'd Fought?"

[Piotr Kapuscinski]

OTL the Polish Army collapsed and Warsaw fell about the same time the French Army intended to start the second phase.

Didn't they stop intending to launch it already on 17.09.1939 when the Soviets invaded Poland from the east?

Warsaw fell on 28.09.1939.

[Carl Schwamberger]

OTL the Polish Army collapsed and Warsaw fell about the same time the French Army intended to start the second phase.

Didn't they stop intending to launch it already on 17.09.1939 when the Soviets invaded Poland from the east?

Warsaw fell on 28.09.1939.

Possiblly. The English language histories on my shelf, like Horne, Chapman, or Jackson are not precise on this. Suffice to say the orders for the second phase were not given & eventually a new operation withdrawing the advance force from the Saar was executed. Perhaps there are some French language sources that are clearer on when Gamelin & Georges made the decisions/gave the orders.

[KACKO]

That the Czech army around Prague would be able to fight for several weeks or a few months is rather doubtful.
German bombers needed 10 minutes to reach Prague - the city was basically undefendable, like Warsaw could have been bombed into submission.
The other major cities were even more vulnerable: Brno - 7 minutes, Bratislava - 2 minutes.

However there were not major plans to defend surrounded Prague. Prague was suppose to be abandoned.
Brno and Bratislava were indeed very close to Vienna airport, however with weather in October 1938 as well as supplies available to Luftwaffe will it olay such a big role?

Another problem not mentioned: after the Germans cut Czechoslovakia in two, in the main pocket one third of the population there would be German.

Of course. If German managed to break from North as well as from South very quickly. However again plan was different - retreat to Slovak-Czech administrative border.

Poland didn't have to declare war in this scenario and I suspect Romania and Yugoslavia too.

Very likely Romania and Yugoslavia will just position on Hungarian border and wait. Hungary would be probably waiting till last minute too and jump in when everything is decided. With Czechoslovakia defeated in 6 to 8 weeks (maybe bit longer) Romanians and Yugoslavians would not declare war on Hungary. Romania would very likely allow Czechoslovak troops from Ruthenia enter their territory.

[wm]

Brno and Bratislava were indeed very close to Vienna airport, however with weather in October 1938 as well as supplies available to Luftwaffe will it olay such a big role?

It was even worse. Bratislava was in range of German artillery, Brno would be too, after an advance of about 10/20 kilometers.

Of course. If German managed to break from North as well as from South very quickly. However again plan was different - retreat to Slovak-Czech administrative border.

Did the German care about it? I suppose they would have been fine with the Czechoslovak Army bottled up in Slovakia. They wanted the Czech lands, they never were interested in Slovakia.

[KACKO]

It was even worse. Bratislava was in range of German artillery, Brno would be too, after an advance of about 10/20 kilometers.

Brno is app 60 km away from the border as crow flies, so they would need more then 10-20 km advance to get the town under artillery fire. As to Bratislava goes, yes it's basically on the border. However against Bratislava only weak German forces were operating (mostly former Austrian units). What I have seen Czechoslovak artillery around Bratislava outnumbered German.

Did the German care about it? I suppose they would have been fine with the Czechoslovak Army bottled up in Slovakia. They wanted the Czech lands, they never were interested in Slovakia.

Maybe they didn't however would be great for Poland if campaign in Czechoslovakia was going for few months.
Longer Czechoslovak army will hold in Slovakia, more German army will be exhausted and god knows maybe, just maybe opinion in France and Britain could be changed.

Indeed they would gain Czech lands but what would be left there? Skoda? CKD, others? Hardly. Part would be evacuated to Slovakia, part destroyed by Germans and part by Czechoslovaks. Would they got some 450 LT-35s and LT-38s as OTL? Would they gain artillery?

[wm]

He wanted a greater Germany, anything else was just a bonus.

Without France Poland would do nothing.
Even later, after a few months and a declaration of war by the Allies (this would make them aggressors btw - they solemnly had signed the Munich Agreement after all) I don't quite know what Poland could have done. The defensive agreement with France wouldn't kick in because obviously it was a purely defensive agreement.
Additionally the German–Polish Non-Aggression Pact had no provision for its repudiation. This would make Poland both an aggressor and agreement violator.

And the question is why Czechoslovakia should have fought. It survived the war relatively unscathed when Poland was almost razed to the ground. Even many Poles consider Czechoslovakia as the country which made the right decision, in contrast to their country.

Czechoslovakia wouldn't be the first country that fought because it counted on others and got destroyed. Earlier there were Ethiopia 1936 and Shanghai 1937. In desperation both Ethiopia and China were trying to elicit compassion from the world and got none.

[KACKO]

And the question is why Czechoslovakia should have fought. It survived the war relatively unscathed when Poland was almost razed to the ground. Even many Poles consider Czechoslovakia as the country which made the right decision, in contrast to their country.

Well despite all his pre war mistakes Benes was right at least on this one.
There is story while in France in 1940 he watched with certain satisfaction when German 7th Panzer armed predominately with Czechoslovak weapons was advancing across France.

Czechoslovakia wouldn't be the first country that fought because it counted on others and got destroyed. Earlier there were Ethiopia 1936 and Shanghai 1937. In desperation both Ethiopia and China were trying to elicit compassion from the world and got none.

True here. And are others afterwards. But then question is when is worth to fight even if there is not much hope? I guess despite Nacism and Hitler Germany in 1938 was still seen as civilized country so ceding predominately German and Hungarian territory in 1938 still didn't seem so bad.

[PassandReviewofWW2]

The German Campaign against Poland provides some examples of what,"Might" have been--------The Battle of Westerplatte, Mlawa line, Wizna etc.
German Losses were heavy, against every Prepared Fortified line, or Position .
The same fate would have befallen Czechoslovakia, who would have had to fight alone, just as Poland.

[DZKriz]

These days -- watching the floundering Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 -- we see what war in 1938 could have looked like.

During these past years, I've become convinced that Germany's army in 1938 was not really prepared for war yet.

Perhaps the biggest indication of this was that Germany never really mobilized before Oct 1, 1938. My sense is that it couldn't effectively mobilize in 1938 even if it wanted to. Both the plans for invasion and the units that eventually were sent to occupy the Sudetenland were German military units of "peacetime" (diminished) strength.

Second, the Weather proved AWFUL between Oct 1-5, 1938, which would have largely rendered the Luftwaffe ineffective.

Third, Hitler really was insane to try to invade Czechoslovakia so late in the year. Within weeks the mountains would have been covered by snow. Even if conquered many of them before then, the mud, the cold would have made his logistics a nightmare.

Fourth, Hitler's three armor divisions were built of Pz1s and some Pz2s. These were parade route show piece tanks. Pz1s could be pierced by mere armor piercing bullets...

Fifth, the Czechoslovak army was mobilized, the Czechs were highly motivated, from its highest officer corps to its lowest ranking soldiers _scrapy_. The entire upper ranks of the Czechoslovak army cut its teeth out in Siberia during the Czechoslovak Legion's Russian Revolution glory Days. They knew how to improvise. It would have taken minutes for the soldiers to figure out how they could tilt mortars to make them into reasonably effective AT guns (certainly against the silly Pz1s (and that's just one example). And even German intel feared that the Czechs had dams mined to blow at command, that the Czechs were ready to set fire to entire forests along the borderlands -- basically more than willing to allow the Sudeten borderlands to be turned into a burnt out wasteland even as they fought a continued fighting retreat, from the border to the Pilzen line, to the Kladno-Vltava-Labe line, to a line being set up in the Czechomoravian highlands, finally to a line at the mountains at the border of Moravia and Slovakia.

That all said ... the country, like Ukraine would have been destroyed. And interestingly enough, "Czechoslovakia" could have ended up as a Slovakia in the role of Taiwan.

Then there would also be questions --

Okay the Czechs could have embarrassed the German army enough to make a coup against Hitler possible. But as we've certainly learned from the differing experiences of post-WW I and post-WW II, what was necessary was not simply the defeat of Nazi crazies, but also of German militarism.

The most worrisome scenario that I can think of, if the Czechs (like the Ukrainians of today) had "surprisingly held their own" that ... Hitler would have been deposed in 1938 and ... someone smarter than Hitler would have led Germany into WW II starting in 1945 but now armed with nuclear weapons.

The world could perhaps be grateful that World War II played out as it did and when it did.

[wm]

Maps from a Czech museum illustrating the desperate situation of the Czechoslovak Army in 1938. The distances were tiny - Prague was about 50 miles from the border.

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[lahoda]

Maps from a Czech museum illustrating the desperate situation of the Czechoslovak Army in 1938. The distances were tiny - Prague was about 50 miles from the border.

What draws you to the conclusion the Czechoslovak Army situation in 1938 was desperate? I think they were in quite good shape to execute the plan they had, which relied on the alliance with France, or at least not being marked as the aggressors. This was the only reason for accepting the Munich treaty, not any desperate military situation. In the hindsight, the plans of the Czechoslovak Army from 1938 were too conservative, or they expected Germany to be in much better shape than they actually were (which was common mistake in these days) so it is quite likely the Czechoslovakia would be able to hold wehrmacht outside the defensive lines for quite some time. My personal guess is that there would be no real war, after German declaration and initial light attacks generals would convince Hitler to postpone the operation till spring 1939.

[wm]

Desperate because the Czechoslovak Army was encircled already without any fight.
No point of the territory was safe from the German airforce, and any target was reachable by air in two dozen minutes and from both sides.

Additionally, the border areas (i.e., the battlefields) were populated almost entirely by the (highly motivated) Germans.
Thirty percent of people living in the encircled territory were Germans too.
It was almost like the Czechoslovak Army was encircled in enemy territory, the enemy within numbered millions.

Wasn't the Czechoslovak plan to retreat as fast as possible to Slovakia anyway? The Germans were more or less ok with that, although they would try to prevent it.

[AnchorSteam]

Command Magazine produced a board game for this scenario in the 1990s. It was pretty well thought-out, the Panzer Divs did not even get any special movement or advantages because "Blitzkrieg was all theoretical at that point".
The idea was that if the Czechs could hold out for a certain period of time, their allies (?) would join in and that would have been the end of the IIIrd Reich.
THe border forts were really just a trip-wire, but a very good one! You didn't even have to station a major unit there to force the German player to mount a regular attack on it, even from behind.

In game-play, the Czechs hardly ever won, they really didn't stand a chance. THey had to have units off0map facing Hungary, and if you drew any of them into the fight with the Germans you could trigger a Hungarian invasion. It just never seemed to work for the defender.

One other thing; tinkering with the original German deployment (see map above) did NOT work very well. As odd as it looks, it really was the right way to go.

[lahoda]

Desperate because the Czechoslovak Army was encircled already without any fight.
No point of the territory was safe from the German airforce, and any target was reachable by air in two dozen minutes and from both sides.

Yes, the distances are not that big, but Luftwaffe would be mosty non-factor in October 1938, from several reasons: weather was real awful, while bomber command had a lots of planes to its disposal (yet from 1400 bombers, just 580 were operational, the crews were not there (from expected crews to man those 1400 bombers, there were only 380 crews fully operational) a lots of stuff was missing.
Plus it works the other way too: a successful raid to Linz railway hub can cripple the entire south logistic, Berlin is just 50 minutes away for B-71 bombers.

Additionally, the border areas (i.e., the battlefields) were populated almost entirely by the (highly motivated) Germans.
Thirty percent of people living in the encircled territory were Germans too.
It was almost like the Czechoslovak Army was encircled in enemy territory, the enemy within numbered millions.

What was the supposed role of those "highly motivated" germans? Those who were really motivated, entered the Freikorps, started the uprising and fled to Germany in September after martial law was established. The remaining citizens were non-factor. And that was before the mobilization, which was highly successful (heck even 40% of German men were part of the army, despite order from Heinlein (and Hitler) not to participate).

Wasn't the Czechoslovak plan to retreat as fast as possible to Slovakia anyway? The Germans were more or less ok with that, although they would try to prevent it.

No that was not the plan. The problem of the Czechoslovak army was a very long border with Germany. That's why the entire border fortification system was created, to lower the risk of sneak attack at one point and quick advance of Germans into the country. While a lots of the fortification was missing, it was there and needed to be pierced by Germans which would take time and would result in blood bath. Notice that northern part was in much better shape, combined with the really problematic terrain there would pretty much guarantee that this area would hold and prevent from army being encircled around Prague.
The plan was to shorten the front - the first location would be on the Vltava and Berounka river ahead of Prague, the second location would be at Moravian highlands, third on the Slovak border (also mountainous) and last resort in the high mountains in Slovakia, and then eventually flee to Romania to maintain the fighting capability of the army. German logistic routes would grow, their army would get more casualties as they were on offensive and the final battle would be between armies of relatively equal strength.
All that assumed that France would honor its treaty and will launch the offensive against Germany. There were even plans for French bombers to fly swing missions to Czechoslovakia, France had their equipment (ammo, bombs) on several Czechoslovak air bases. Not honoring this agreement with active bullying from the UK government was the reason for accepting the Munich, not any desperate military situation.

In fact it was German side which would find themselves in the desperate situation, as they lacked many pieces needed for a successful operation, starting with a plan (their only plan expected sneak attack before mobilization happened, which was not the case in early October), trained forces to get numerical advantage needed for successful attack, equipment, oil (especially if Rumania cut their transfers) and general public support for another war which would be very bloody.

[wm]

So the Czechs were going to create an equivalent of the 1945 German Alpine Fortress.
I have no means to establish the practicality of that, but Germany, in economic terms, was almost eight times more powerful than Czechoslovakia. The Germans spent more on their army than the entire Czechoslovak GDP.

The Sudeten Germans actually liberated and were able to defend several towns in the last week before Munich.
For the German Army, they would deliver intelligence and would serve as guides.

France was able to weasel out of the (undefined in absence of a military agreement) commitments because the alliance intentionally allowed them to do it. France wanted to reduce their commitments in Eastern Europe from day one.
The France-Polish alliance was only marginally better in this regard.
France, reasonably, didn't want to die for other's people Danzigs and Sudetenlands.