"Czechoslovakia '38-What If They'd Fought?"

[seppalar]

Hello all,

the other day I was thinking through a slightly different scenario and realised that Russia was practicing balance of power strategies and had been since about 1920 at least.

Russia worked to keep Poland, Czechoslovakia and the other Eastern European countries divided and did so very successfully. I believe that destroying Czechoslovakia was just as much what the Russians wanted as destroying Poland. It did not matter which order it was done in.

The Czechs were the duped into taking land from Poland in 1920 - in order to be the obvious victors friends. When the Reds were stopped the Czechs were encouraged by Russia to keep Teschen purely in order to cause strife between Poland and Czechoslovakia. The Russians never had any intention of "defending" either country - any more than they ever helped anybody else. Russia only fights in order to put the Russian flag up - it has been the same for hundreds of years and under many variation on the Russian flag.

RS

[Tom from Cornwall]

Apologies for raising this issue from the "dead", but I wondered if anyone could tell me how the Czech army was organised? Were the tanks grouped together in well-trained armoured units or scattered in "penny-packets" throughout the army?

Regards

Tom

[Kingfish]

Behold!

http://www.niehorster.org/037_czechoslo ... vakia.html

It appears the bulk were concentrated in the 4 "fast divisions", although the infantry formations also retained a small number (squadron?) in their respective OOBs

[wm]

They were grouped together, they had armoured units in those fast divisions although not-quite-well-trained, the Germans were better in this regard.
1st had 40 tanks, 2nd=40, 3rd=16, 4th=76. On paper each fast division should have 98 tanks. Additionally there was a reserve tank battalion - 40 tanks.
The rest were allocated to all the other divisions, a unit of three tanks per division.

[Tom from Cornwall]

Thanks for the swift replies, interesting information. I don't suppose anyone knows what the Czech plans were? Hold the armour in reserve to counter attack any penetration of the frontier defences?

Regards

Tom

[wm]

The main task of the tanks in the fast divisions was to support advancing infantry, the others were going to be used as scouts.

The Czechs have lots of info here on all they had against the Germans in 1938.
There is an insert on the left "Válka, která se nekonala" - The War That Wasn't, the links there lead to articles on infantry, tanks, bombers, fighters, artillery, all the lot.
It's somewhat readable using Google Translate - I hope...

[James A Pratt III]

This is mostly from the book "The Collected What If? ed Robert Crowley:

The German army in 1938 had 48 Divisions including 3 panzer, 3 motorized and 4 light. Most of the Panzers were Pz Is and IIs inferior to the 35ts. The German army had some serious training and leadership problems. 5 of the divisions were ex Austrian and were in poor shape. By September1939 many of these problems were corrected but , in 1938 the German army was in no shape to fight a major war. In 1938 the Germans deployed 37 of these divisions against the Czechs. Three divisions were left in East Prussia leaving 8 divisions and 14 Landwehr divisions to hold off the French and Poles. The Landwehr Divisions were all under trained underequipped and underprepared for war. Adding to the Germans problems is the Fritsch/Blomberg crisis which caused considerable dissatisfaction among the German Army's senior leadership. There were plans to overthrow and or assassinate Hitler. One must also point out the German economy was in poor shape. The start of a war in 1938 with no Nazi-Soviet trade/aid pact and the cut off of Rumanian oil would have probably led to a German economic meltdown. I understand also many Germans in 1938 were really nervous about a war at this time.
The Czech army in 1938 had 26 divisions 4 Fast, 1 motorized and 21 Infantry. It had good equipment, and while its senior leadership was not that great it junior officers and NCOs were fairly good and it soldiers were well trained the Czechs who made up about 50% of the army were motivated to fight. As for the rest of the population lets say they aren't so motivated. the army also has some strong defenses.
(to be continued)

[James A Pratt III]

This is what might have happened if war began on 1 October 1938 (Note Strategy & Tactics magazine came out with a wargame on this very subject)

1 October Germany invades Czechoslovakia The Germans take heavy casualties in the first week of the war do to strong Czech defenses ect. It should be pointed out that 8 of the first 11 days of October 1938 the weather was bad so there is little CAS from the Luftwaffe.

3 October England and France declare war

4 October or a few days later Poland, Rumania, and Yugoslavia declare war (Note all three of these countries have alliances with either the Czechs or Poles or France ect)
After a week or so of heavy fighting the Germans cut Czechoslovakia in two. Before this the Czech government and gold reserves are evacuated to the Eastern tail of the country. The rest of the Czech army around Prague were they fight on for several weeks or a few months before they surrender.
Meanwhile the Poles who have the time to fully mobilize their army unlike 1939 launch offensive into both East Prussia and Eastern Germany which forces the Germans to withdraw troops from fighting the Czechs to stop the Poles. The German forces in East Prussia have to fall back to a bridgehead around Knoingsberg leaving a good chunk of east Prussia in polish hands. meanwhile the French launch a 1938 version of the 1939 saar offensive.
When The Czechs around Prague surrender the Germans start redeploying their forces to attack the Poles in Winter. the offensive across the Polish corridor manages to hack a path to Knoingsberg but runs out steam soon afterwards. The Germans also launch a offensive into Southern Poland as in 1939 but it does get very far do to the Winter mud and snow and Polish and Rumanian resistance.

The war grinds to a halt during the winter as the German economy melts down in part do to a shortage of fuel Since the Germans don't have the Rumanian or Soviet oil all they have left is the Hungarian oilfields and what they can make from coal. During the winter many Germans see their position is hopeless. There is a coup/assassination attempt against Hitler. If it succeeds a new German government decides to make peace after some peace talks a treaty is signed in early 1939. Even if it fails even Hitler might decide he better make peace or else. Any way Hitler is forced to go into exile.

(to be continued)

[James A Pratt III]

As for Luftwaffe in 1938 it was in no real shape to fight a war either. it's JG were in the process of converting to Bf 109s. it also suffered from a lack of reserve aircraft and supplies and equipment to fight a war. Also some of its best aircrew were in Spain with the Condor legion getting them home is going to take some time.

If Italy joins the war. It won't happen until after 18 October since the Italians have to get their troops back from Spain. Here's what might have happened the French launch a limited offensive into Northern Italy and the Italians launch a offensive against Yugoslavia both don't get very far do to the oncoming winter. As for Libya the Italians who have to fight both the RN and MN are going to be hopelessly outnumbered and running convoys their is going to be very difficult no doubt there will be a major naval battle fought during the winter of 1938/39 where most likely the Italian navy will be defeated. Adding to Italian Navies problems is a shortage of full. I think they started WW II in 1940 with a eight month supply no doubt they won't have more in 1938 and most likely less. so after some months their fleet will be immobilized do to a fuel shortage. This same fuel shortage will soon cause the Italian economy to melt down. The Germans will have to help the Italians out economically from their own scare resoures. as force the Italian forces in Libya they now have to fight the British from the east and the French from the west besides being short of supplies. Know doubt the British and French will take the offensive in Libya and win major battles. The Italians will no doubt make peace in 1939 along with the Germans.

I hop this is of some interest.

[wm]

That the Czech army around Prague would be able to fight for several weeks or a few months is rather doubtful.
German bombers needed 10 minutes to reach Prague - the city was basically undefendable, like Warsaw could have been bombed into submission.
The other major cities were even more vulnerable: Brno - 7 minutes, Bratislava - 2 minutes.

Another problem not mentioned: after the Germans cut Czechoslovakia in two, in the main pocket one third of the population there would be German.

Poland didn't have to declare war in this scenario and I suspect Romania and Yugoslavia too.

[James A Pratt III]

From what I have read in this book and the book "Bitter Glory" If England and France declared war on Germany in 1938 Poland would have declared war on Germany. Romania and Yugoslavia both had alliances with the Czechs and were pro Allied at this time.

[wm]

The Poles wouldn't declare war automatically, from the day one, and it is hard to tell when they would have joined the war, especially that the 1934 German-Polish non-aggression pact forbade any Polish participation in such a war:

Should any disputes arise between them [...] in no circumstances, however, will they proceed to the application of force for the purpose of reaching a decision in such disputes.

And the Franco-Polish alliance, and the later signed Franco-Polish Warrant Agreement didn't require to declare war, only to lend aid and assistance. Even this only if it was an unprovoked attack:

attacked without giving provocation, the two Governments shall take concerted measures for the defence of their territory and the protection of their legitimate interests.

France and, reciprocally, Poland, acting in application of Article 16 of the Covenant of the League of Nations, undertake to lend each other immediate aid and assistance, if such a failure is accompanied by an unprovoked recourse to arms.

In this what-if England and France declare war on Germany co the Franco-Polish alliance doesn't apply.

Poland was trying many times to "upgrade" the alliance to something more useful, by declaring willingness to wage war unconditionally but the French were unwilling.
Eventually, (in May 1938) Poland notified France that any Polish help in case of a "provoked" war (as a result of French military aid to Czechoslovakia) would require high-level consultations first. The French were as usual unwilling.


It should be noted that both Romania and Yugoslavia had alliances with the Czechs against Hungary - not Germany. They had no obligation, no reason to participate in such a war.

[James A Pratt III]

Almost everyone in the late 1930s thought the French army was the best in Europe. They fully expected it to come charging across the German border right after war between France and Germany began. Poland, Rumania, and I would say Yugoslavia were all very pro-Allied pre-Munich. If England and France went to war they would have gladly joined in.

as for the USSR it was in the middle of the Great purges. The Red army was unfit for combat. There was no Nazi Soviet pact. resolute Allied action would have had impressed Stalin. So I think he would have sat back and let the Capitalist powers fight.

[Carl Schwamberger]

This is what might have happened if war began on 1 October 1938 ...

.... meanwhile the French launch a 1938 version of the 1939 saar offensive....

The 'Saar Offensive' as we know it in the English language versions was a preliminary outpost clearing operations. Its objective was close up to and identify the forward edge of the German main defense zone between Luxembourg and the Rhine. Sometime during the third week of mobilization as the 'Series A' formations were ready the second phase of attacking the main defense zone would be started. This would include sequential series of large scale artillery strikes, air strikes weather permitting, and methodical 'bite & hold' attacks designed to dismember what is usually called the Siegfried Line. While the front line strength of the offensive would only be around 20 divisions, there would have been another 30 Active and Series A divisions to rotate into the attack force if any of the original formations became sub par. The ratio of artillery to infantry battalions probablly would have been around 2.5 - 3, or about seven battalion to each infantry division with about half those medium and heavy cannon battalions. Roughly 30 tank battalions would have been initially available. Giving a nominal ratio of 1.5 battalions per div in the offensive force. Six to eight weeks into mobilization the ratio would have been better than two tank bn per div. This does not include the tanks in the existing DLM formations.

French AF operations would have been hampered by the weather. Unlike in May 1940 there would not have been a massive transition to new aircraft underway, sidelining close to half of the squadrons.

Exactly what the three German infantry divisions and Landwehr would accomplish against this is a good question.

OTL the Polish Army collapsed and Warsaw fell about the same time the French Army intended to start the second phase. Gamelin canceled it as irrelevant, so we can only estimate how sucessfull it would have been against the German defense of 1939, or 1938.

[James A Pratt III]

The Germans and many historians reguard the failure of the French to launch a major offensive into Germany in September 1939 as a major blunder. The many German officers have pointed out that the defenses in the west were weak and could not have withstood a major French offensive.

As for the French army commander at this time General Maurice Gamelin he is usually described as inept and slow.

It appears the French in 1938 would do what they did in 1939 according to the book What If? mentioned above sit behind the Maginot line and let the Germans overrun Eastern Europe.

I must add the following if war had broken out in 1938. The Germans would have not the Czech arms factories and all the equipment of the Czech military that captured intact in early 1939. Add to this no Czech gold reserves which they got in 1939. This would of greatly hurt there ability to wage war. I would also like to point out the Germans would also have problems conducting air operations due to bad weather and a lack of navigational aids that they had in 1940.