Roddoss72 wrote:I.) i agree with this, but i think with an expanded Luftwaffe and Royal Italian Air Force the Royal Navy would have to relocate to the Persian Gulf.
I concurr. The RN will probably bombard Rommel from El Alamein to Alexandria. After Rommel pushes past Alexandria, the RN will move all ships into the Red Sea. Because if the Admiralty doesn't, it will have to run the gauntlet of ALL Axis naval and air forces from Crete to Gibralta (even the Italian Navy might be inclined to fight this one) only to sail around Africa to Aden to defend the Red Sea - and that is just an unnecessary risk.
Roddoss72 wrote:2.) i have to say that in this the British would have to evacuate Cyprus of face the real posibility of being trapped and no chance of resupply, even setting up a front in Gaza means nothing, the Axis now in control of the Eastern Med can bypass Gaza and land Axis forces further up into Asyria and then form a pincir of those allied troops in Palestine, but they can begin to lay massive minefields within the Sinai (sic), thus at least slowing the advancement, but not stopping it.
Without RN assets in the Eastern Med, Cyprus is not defendable. Thus, it would likely be abandoned before the RN goes to the Red Sea.
I would imagine the British to set up a front in Gaza, though, because you want to make Rommels drive to Mosul as hard as possible. Palestine, Jordan and Iraq will be defended, and supplied via Basrah, with supplies going by river boats up the Euphrates to the RAF base in Al Habbaniyah.
Rommel will take Palestine, thanks to supplies being brought from Italy much more plentifull now without the RN present, but then have a hard time pushing east from Palestine, with the LRDG attacking his supply lines throughout Jordan.
Roddoss72 wrote:3.) Red Sea becomes the great Red Sea Turkey Shoot, Luftwaffe and RA aircraft based along Egypt's coast line virtually can attack any shipping there at their whim, the Red Sea is far to narrow to have any large naval units. No the Red Sea is out of the question.
Italian RA certainly would not be a major factor, as it wasn't in other battles.
I would imagine the British Army to establish a definsive line as close to Suez as possible, keeping the pressure on northern Egypt.
Red Sea will be under total RN control (ideally suited to be blocked by RN at certain chokepoints by minefields). RAF will be very present.
Roddoss72 wrote:Well IIRC that up to 25 to 35 divisions can be spared, they being the German 1st (Southern France), 12th (Balkans) and 19th (Southern France) Armies, then we have the Italian 10th and 11th Armies (Both Balkans) and by this stage if they can be spared with available transports at least 4 airborne divisions, in this there would be no fewer than 10 axis panzer/panzer-grenadier divisions. These units were not on the Eastern Front and as so would not be missed.
I don't understand. Are you saying there were 10 PzDiv & PzGrenDiv and 4 FschJgDiv tied up in the Med in early 1942?
Roddoss72 wrote:But the Axis won't need that many, Rommel pleaded with Hitler that with 1 extra panzer and 3 infantry divisions he could eradicate the British out of North Africa permanently, and once this has been achieved the Italians can effectively re-supply the eastern med without interference from the RN and RAF.
What i am saying is that the Axis can land troops in Assyria and then once in place they and Rommel cut off the allies in Palestine, destroy them and then mop up whats left in Saudia Arabia, while Iraq freeed from the British goes over to the Axis, the British are under so much strain that it has no choice but to pull back to Iran, but then again we have the situation of the Russians being there, but in such small numbers that Rommel just pushes them aside and roll on into the Caucasus, seizing every oil installation that the Soviets have and after several months when the Italian and Roumanian engineers have brought them on line, Hitler has a major oil supply under his belt, Soviet Union is now fighting on two fronts, one comming in from underneath east of the caspian Sea and swinning into the rear echelon of the Soviet front lines, while the Axis on the main eastern front has eliminated all resistance west of the River Volga.
Then with no access to oil the Soviet war machine gradually grinds to a halt. Soviet Union can not be supplied in the north as Murmansk and Archangel are both taken, and supply through the middle east is cut off, now in axis hands. Once this has been achieved then the Axis begins to rectify a major sore and that is to eleiminate the British once and for all in the western Med, although no real match the Italian Navy throws everything it has against Force H, at the same time the Germans and Italians begin moving troops into NW Africa.
Well, on this I need to quote Goethe:
"Die Botschaft hör' ich wohl, allein mir fehlt der Glaube"