Suppose the Czechs refused to back down in September 1938, Germany invaded, and Britain and France declared war? How would the Luftwaffe have fared against the Czech, French and British air forces?
(Assume Poland and the USSR stay neutral, watching each other).
Background information:
http://www.geocities.com/CapeCanaveral/2072/Munich.html
Other notes:
In Czechoslovakia, the main fighter was the Avia B-534 biplane, which could do 254 mph and had 4 mgs. The Czechs had 48 modern Tupelov SB-2 bombers they'd bought from the USSR.
In Germany, the Bf 109E was not yet in production - Germany had only the Bf 109B, C, and D models. The latest D model had 4 mgs and could do 304 mph. The Ju88 had not appeared yet either.
In France, the Morane-Saulnier MS.406 had entered service in March '38, but was still shaking down and unready for combat operations. Main French fighter was the Dewoitine D510 monoplane, well armed with a 20mm cannon and 2 mgs, but could only do 250 mph. All French bombers were obselete.
In Britain, 5 squadrons were more or less operational with Hurricane I's, and one squadron was just starting to convert to the Spitfire I - but the Spitfire was unready for combat. The rest had Gladiator and Gauntlet biplanes. I think the Spitfires and most of the Hurricanes would be retained for home defence of the UK against the fast German Dornier and Heinkel bombers. But Britain had 20 squadrons of fast Blenheim bombers (260 mph with full bombload) and even the slower Fairey Battle was less vulnerable than it would be in 1940.
What if - Air War 1938?
What if - Air War 1938?
Last edited by Tim Smith on 06 Feb 2007, 08:38, edited 1 time in total.
I would imagine that any invasion would result in the quick overruning of Czech airfields thus rendering the Czech air force impotent.
As for the French & British, one would have to wonder what useful targets the bombers could hit to have any particular effect on the outcome of the Czech invasion. Also would Allied fighters be able to escort the bombers to and from the target area?
Andy H
As for the French & British, one would have to wonder what useful targets the bombers could hit to have any particular effect on the outcome of the Czech invasion. Also would Allied fighters be able to escort the bombers to and from the target area?
Andy H
Why would you think that? Didn't work that way in Poland 1939 - the Polish Air Force was not destroyed on the ground and was not captured either - most of its' surviving planes escaped to Rumania after fighting well.
Also the Poles didn't have heavily fortified mountain ranges between the Panzers and their airfields - whereas the Czechs did.
I think Czechoslovakia would have been a tougher target than Poland '39. The Czechs were better equipped than the Poles, relative to the Wehrmacht of 1938.
Also the Poles didn't have heavily fortified mountain ranges between the Panzers and their airfields - whereas the Czechs did.
I think Czechoslovakia would have been a tougher target than Poland '39. The Czechs were better equipped than the Poles, relative to the Wehrmacht of 1938.
Andy H wrote:I would imagine that any invasion would result in the quick overruning of Czech airfields thus rendering the Czech air force impotent.
Andy H
Hi Tim
Most of the Czech defence systems along with their manufacturing and natural resources were within the areas occupied by Sudenten Germans whose 5th column activities at best would have hindered the Czech Armies response.
The geographical posistion of Czechoslovakia, encompassed on three sides by German & Austria, and plus to the east the territorial aspirations of Poland and Hungary would have to be factored in. The mountains would cause some difficulty but they didn't surround the country like a great wall, and in those area's the Panzers would attack.
Again:-As for the French & British, one would have to wonder what useful targets the bombers could hit to have any particular effect on the outcome of the Czech invasion. Also would Allied fighters be able to escort the bombers to and from the target area?
Andy H
Most of the Czech defence systems along with their manufacturing and natural resources were within the areas occupied by Sudenten Germans whose 5th column activities at best would have hindered the Czech Armies response.
The geographical posistion of Czechoslovakia, encompassed on three sides by German & Austria, and plus to the east the territorial aspirations of Poland and Hungary would have to be factored in. The mountains would cause some difficulty but they didn't surround the country like a great wall, and in those area's the Panzers would attack.
Again:-As for the French & British, one would have to wonder what useful targets the bombers could hit to have any particular effect on the outcome of the Czech invasion. Also would Allied fighters be able to escort the bombers to and from the target area?
Andy H
I've never heard that the Sudeten Germans were organised into an large armed partisan force, ready and willing to fight the Czech Army. If you have any links to info on that I'd be glad to see them. As far as I know they were just pro-Nazi civilians - nothing a few thousand Czech soldiers couldn't keep a lid on.
Poland and Hungary would not play a large role in the Czech operation. They'd merely move in and take what territory they wanted AFTER the Czech Army had already surrended to the Wehrmacht. Neither Poland nor Hungary would have wanted war with France and Britain, which would be a possible consequence of joining the German invasion at an early stage.
Czechoslovakia itself is too far away for Allied light bombers to reach from France with fighter escort. I don't anticipate many British and French bombing raids on the German columns invading Czechoslovakia. They'd leave that to the Czech Air Force. After a few formations of unescorted bombers had been handled roughly by Bf 109's, the Allies would give up unescorted bomber raids deep into Germany or Czechoslovakia in daylight.
The Allied Air Forces would instead concentrate on supporting a limited French invasion into the Saar region of southwestern Germany. The French certainly wouldn't risk an attempt to cross the Rhine, but to show solidarity with Czechoslovakia and their commitment to the Allied cause, they would try to conquer part of the southern Rhineland. The Germans would be very weak on the ground, but would have the advantage of a greater number of more modern fighter aircraft.
Also the French and British would be bombing Germany at night - quite ineffectively because they couldn't hit their targets accurately, but on the other hand their losses would be very low because Germany had no radar to detect them and no night fighters to shoot them down - only flak guns.
Poland and Hungary would not play a large role in the Czech operation. They'd merely move in and take what territory they wanted AFTER the Czech Army had already surrended to the Wehrmacht. Neither Poland nor Hungary would have wanted war with France and Britain, which would be a possible consequence of joining the German invasion at an early stage.
Czechoslovakia itself is too far away for Allied light bombers to reach from France with fighter escort. I don't anticipate many British and French bombing raids on the German columns invading Czechoslovakia. They'd leave that to the Czech Air Force. After a few formations of unescorted bombers had been handled roughly by Bf 109's, the Allies would give up unescorted bomber raids deep into Germany or Czechoslovakia in daylight.
The Allied Air Forces would instead concentrate on supporting a limited French invasion into the Saar region of southwestern Germany. The French certainly wouldn't risk an attempt to cross the Rhine, but to show solidarity with Czechoslovakia and their commitment to the Allied cause, they would try to conquer part of the southern Rhineland. The Germans would be very weak on the ground, but would have the advantage of a greater number of more modern fighter aircraft.
Also the French and British would be bombing Germany at night - quite ineffectively because they couldn't hit their targets accurately, but on the other hand their losses would be very low because Germany had no radar to detect them and no night fighters to shoot them down - only flak guns.
Ever thought it may be because it wasn't necessary? There was no actual war between Germany and the czechs, so it's no wonder you won't find much in regard on historical proof for this case.I've never heard that the Sudeten Germans were organised into an large armed partisan force, ready and willing to fight the Czech Army. If you have any links to info on that I'd be glad to see them. As far as I know they were just pro-Nazi civilians - nothing a few thousand Czech soldiers couldn't keep a lid on.
On the other hand, seeing the german effort to blame Poland for violating their territroy prior to Fall Weiß, I imagine the OKW would try to infiltrate the Sudetenland and form up and support local groups of partisans. That's certainly something you'll need a little more to do against than just have an eye on, you'll find plenty of reports about such groups around.
As for Poland, I'm not sure whether they'd join the germans or the allied. They certainly saw the thread germany posed to them and wouldn't want to alienate their western allies. Thus I don't see polish troops marching toward czech territory in that time. However, they could try and join the allies later in the war and march for Berlin.
Regarding Hungary, I don't see any particular reason for her not to join in after a few successes, as long as poland didn't join on the side of the allies. Hungary was relatively secure concerning allied bombing and territory she would attack wouldn't be full of concrete bunkers at all.
Certainly Nazi Germany was a threat to Poland. But so was the USSR.
Committing even half of the Polish Army against Germany means leaving the eastern frontier more vulnerable to a possible Soviet attack. We know Stalin was opportunistic and took advantage of WWII to take over eastern Poland, the Baltic States, and attack Finland. The danger was that he might have taken advantage of a major war in 1938 to try and reconquer the territories the USSR lost to Poland in 1920.
The Red Army certainly wasn't in the best of condition in 1938, so soon after the 1937 purges. But it was still a lot larger and better equipped than than the Polish Army. And the Western Allies, concerned as they were with Germany, would be unlikely to leap to Poland's defence. Therefore invading either Germany or Czechoslovakia in strength is a risky strategy for Poland, regardless of how well the war is going for whichever side Poland chooses to join.
As for Hungary, joining the war on Germany's side against Czechoslovakia makes sense only if she expects Germany to beat France (or for the Allies to just give up the war and go home after Czechoslovakia surrenders.) And why would she expect that? Who would have made a bet on that happening back in 1938? After all, it was France that won the Great War, not Germany. Hungary's fear is that Germany and Hungary would conquer Czechoslovakia, the Allies would then defeat Germany, and Hungary's position would be completely hopeless.
Hungary did not join the Axis in WWII in 1939, either before or even after Germany conquered Poland. (When Germany was much stronger than she would have been in this scenario). Hungary only joined after France was beaten and Germany looked invincible. There is no reason to expect Hungary to act any differently in the event of a war in 1938.
Committing even half of the Polish Army against Germany means leaving the eastern frontier more vulnerable to a possible Soviet attack. We know Stalin was opportunistic and took advantage of WWII to take over eastern Poland, the Baltic States, and attack Finland. The danger was that he might have taken advantage of a major war in 1938 to try and reconquer the territories the USSR lost to Poland in 1920.
The Red Army certainly wasn't in the best of condition in 1938, so soon after the 1937 purges. But it was still a lot larger and better equipped than than the Polish Army. And the Western Allies, concerned as they were with Germany, would be unlikely to leap to Poland's defence. Therefore invading either Germany or Czechoslovakia in strength is a risky strategy for Poland, regardless of how well the war is going for whichever side Poland chooses to join.
As for Hungary, joining the war on Germany's side against Czechoslovakia makes sense only if she expects Germany to beat France (or for the Allies to just give up the war and go home after Czechoslovakia surrenders.) And why would she expect that? Who would have made a bet on that happening back in 1938? After all, it was France that won the Great War, not Germany. Hungary's fear is that Germany and Hungary would conquer Czechoslovakia, the Allies would then defeat Germany, and Hungary's position would be completely hopeless.
Hungary did not join the Axis in WWII in 1939, either before or even after Germany conquered Poland. (When Germany was much stronger than she would have been in this scenario). Hungary only joined after France was beaten and Germany looked invincible. There is no reason to expect Hungary to act any differently in the event of a war in 1938.
Baltasar wrote: As for Poland, I'm not sure whether they'd join the germans or the allied. They certainly saw the thread germany posed to them and wouldn't want to alienate their western allies. Thus I don't see polish troops marching toward czech territory in that time. However, they could try and join the allies later in the war and march for Berlin.
Regarding Hungary, I don't see any particular reason for her not to join in after a few successes, as long as poland didn't join on the side of the allies. Hungary was relatively secure concerning allied bombing and territory she would attack wouldn't be full of concrete bunkers at all.
Hi Tim
The idea of the Sudeten Germans supporting the advancing German army or hindering the Czech Army is all mine, but one which I would forsee happening. As to the scale and effect then that's anyones guess.
Does anyone know the ethnic make-up of the Czech Army?
In relation to Poland & Hungary.
Poland annexed or was ceded the Tesin (Teschen) area of Czechoslovakia in September 1938 after an ultimatum from Warsaw. This area contained some 250,000 people. The Hungarian's in November of 1938 annexed an area of some 7,500sq miles, containing some 775,000 people. I think it would not be out of the realm of possibility that both would become aggresive towards Czechoslovakia upon the commencement of a German invasion, but if nothing to lay claim to these area's.
The idea of the Sudeten Germans supporting the advancing German army or hindering the Czech Army is all mine, but one which I would forsee happening. As to the scale and effect then that's anyones guess.
Does anyone know the ethnic make-up of the Czech Army?
In relation to Poland & Hungary.
Poland annexed or was ceded the Tesin (Teschen) area of Czechoslovakia in September 1938 after an ultimatum from Warsaw. This area contained some 250,000 people. The Hungarian's in November of 1938 annexed an area of some 7,500sq miles, containing some 775,000 people. I think it would not be out of the realm of possibility that both would become aggresive towards Czechoslovakia upon the commencement of a German invasion, but if nothing to lay claim to these area's.
A treaty of alliance existed between Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and Romania (Little Entente), directed against Hungary. A Hungarian attack, if Czechoslovakia and the West chose to resist could have easily brought the mobilization of its allies and a really bad situation for Hungary, which would be forced to fight on two fronts with two numerically superior adversaries.Baltasar wrote: Regarding Hungary, I don't see any particular reason for her not to join in after a few successes, as long as poland didn't join on the side of the allies. Hungary was relatively secure concerning allied bombing and territory she would attack wouldn't be full of concrete bunkers at all.
Since, as you already so truthfully mentioned, the allies didn't know about any german superiority, I don't know why the little entente shouldn't be true to her word, especially since they had a vast numerical superiority at their favour and the germans would be buisy fighting a two front war for the time being.
Don't know the make up of the army, but the make up of the Czech population as a whole was roughly 50% Czech, 30% Slovak, 10% Hungarian and 10% Ruthenian and Sudeten German.
The Czechs were very good, tough fighters, like the Poles. The Slovaks were less good. The Ruthenians, Hungarians and Sudeten Germans were either poor fighters or unreliable due to mixed loyalties between the Czech state and their ethnic homelands.
I suspect that a larger proportion of the army than 50% would be Czechs, due to the loyalty factor. I would guess that 90% of the officers were Czechs. Very few soldiers would be Sudeten Germans.
The Czechs were very good, tough fighters, like the Poles. The Slovaks were less good. The Ruthenians, Hungarians and Sudeten Germans were either poor fighters or unreliable due to mixed loyalties between the Czech state and their ethnic homelands.
I suspect that a larger proportion of the army than 50% would be Czechs, due to the loyalty factor. I would guess that 90% of the officers were Czechs. Very few soldiers would be Sudeten Germans.
Andy H wrote:
Does anyone know the ethnic make-up of the Czech Army?