What if - Air War 1938?

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Victor
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#16

Post by Victor » 28 Mar 2004, 17:17

Andy H wrote: It would certainly be interesting if they were to honour such a pact. Would not Germany's influence/power make them both very wary of siding with Czechoslovakia given Hungarian involvement?
Both Yugoslavia and Romania had very important economic relations with Germany, which bought a lot of their products. Their interest was to avoid a direct confrontation with Germany and to remain neutral.

King Carol II noted in his diary on 23 May 1938 that as long as Hungary does not get involved in a war with Czechoslovakia, he could continue his politic to remain neutral and not engage in a war with Germany. The Romanian Minister at Berlin, Radu Djuvara, was instructed to communicate to the German government that the Romanian government would be put in a difficult position if Germany would use Hungarian soil to attack or would instigate Hungary to attack Czechoslovakia. However, it seems that the king had decided on 26 December 1938 not to intervene (this information was taken from a secondary source, which I do not have). Still, my opinion is that Carol could have been influenced to intervene in case France and England went to war and Hungary attacked Czechoslovakia. This is why the German Foreign Affairs Minister ordered that the Hungarian government be advised not to engage in any actions that would make Yugoslavia and Romania to go to war.

There was also the problem of Soviet intervention and the right to pass through the country. The Romanian government feared that the Red Army once on Romanian soil, would eventually decide to remain in Bessarabia.

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#17

Post by Andy H » 28 Mar 2004, 19:30

Thank you again for the insights Victor.

Could the Romanian & Yugoslav armies field a viable force if Hungary invaded Czechoslovakia?

Also what if the Poles invaded, they had a defence pact with UK & Fra?

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#18

Post by Victor » 29 Mar 2004, 17:02

Andy H wrote: Could the Romanian & Yugoslav armies field a viable force if Hungary invaded Czechoslovakia?
Most likely. I have an Italian book from the 193os, called "L'Hipotesi H..." or something like that. It is a what if the Little Entente goes to war against Hungary asn Italy and Grrmany come to the rescue. I will take a look into it, although I doubt the information is too viable, but at least it can give a picture of teh strength available.

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#19

Post by maltesefalcon » 29 Mar 2004, 17:27

The Western Allies were initially jubillant that war had been averted in 1938, but history has shown that they were in a better position vs. the Reich than in 1940.

Although the Aliies had substantially less resources in 1938, this applied to those of Germany also.

The outcome of the Czech campaign may have been similar in scope to that of Poland 1 year later. France and Britain could declare war, but what tangible benefit would they offer?

As stated above, they could not fly across the German countryside from the French border to help.

Failing that, they were left with 3 options:

First, a combined expeditionary force which would need to pass through either East Prussia or Poland to get to the Czech front.
Or an offensive on Germany's western border, which would either weaken the eastern invasion force or cause the total collapse of the German armed forces inside Germany.
Finally, the most likely option, declare war and do little or nothing else as in Poland's case the following year. The Czechs would be left to fight on their own and would quickly collapse. The Anglo French faction could use economic sanctions and a naval blockade to entice Germany into coming to terms over their conquest.
I believe the third of these to be the most likely.

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#20

Post by Victor » 29 Mar 2004, 19:52

Ok, here it is.
The book is called L'Ipotesi H 193... published in 1935 by La Prora Milano. No author is mentioned. With my basic knowledge of Italian (similarities with Romanian and watching movies on Italia Uno and Cannale 5 years ago :D ) I understood from the editor's note that the manuscript was found by his gardener, who had found it on Via Aurelia. It was entitled Diario No. 19. Not being able to identify the author he decided to publish it.

The book states that in 1934, Hungary had an army 35,025 men strong (6 infantry brigades and 4 cavalry regiments). It had no air force and a small river navy. It states that in times of war the brigades can be upgraded to divisions. However, in 1938, things were different and the Hungarians could have raised more troops. There are more informed people on the forum that can say how many.

Yugoslavia had a standing army of 107,651 men in 1934, which could be raised to 550,000 during wartime. It had the Royal Guard, 16 infantry divisions, 2 cavalry divisions, 5 army heavy artillery regiments, 6 aviation regiments, 2 seaplane groups. I do not how powerful the river navy was, but IIRC Yugoslavia received at least 2 of the former Austro-Hungarian monitors.

Romania had a standing army of 141,385 men in 1935, which could be raised to at least 700,000 during wartime [during 1944, when Romania was smaller, it was over 1,000,000]. It had 22 infantry divisions (one guard division), 2 mountain divisions, 4 cavalry divisions, 2 armored regiments, 8 motorized heavy artillery regiments, 6 aviation flotillas, one seaplane flotilla and a large river navy (7 monitors).

The author's conclusion: in the Little Entente the Czechs were the best armed, the Yugoslavs were the strongest (l'jugoslavo il piu saldo? ) and the Romanians the most numerous.

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#21

Post by Oleg Grigoryev » 31 Mar 2004, 11:50

If my memory serves me well in 1938 Czechs has signed mutual assistance treaty with USSR.
Intervention of later in the conflict automatically turns the conflict into the war of attrition with inevitable defeat of Germany as result

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#22

Post by Tim Smith » 31 Mar 2004, 12:12

Only problem is USSR doesn't have a border with Czechoslovakia.

The Poles certainly won't allow the Soviets to cross their territory, and the Rumanians won't be eager to cooperate either given the Soviet claim on Bessarabia - former Tsarist territory lost to Rumania after WWI.

Oleg - would Stalin be prepared to send troops through Rumanian territory without Rumanian permission, in this scenario?

oleg wrote:If my memory serves me well in 1938 Czechs has signed mutual assistance treaty with USSR.
Intervention of later in the conflict automatically turns the conflict into the war of attrition with inevitable defeat of Germany as result

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#23

Post by Oleg Grigoryev » 31 Mar 2004, 12:32

Tim Smith wrote:Only problem is USSR doesn't have a border with Czechoslovakia.

The Poles certainly won't allow the Soviets to cross their territory, and the Rumanians won't be eager to cooperate either given the Soviet claim on Bessarabia - former Tsarist territory lost to Rumania after WWI.

Oleg - would Stalin be prepared to send troops through Rumanian territory without Rumanian permission, in this scenario?

oleg wrote:If my memory serves me well in 1938 Czechs has signed mutual assistance treaty with USSR.
Intervention of later in the conflict automatically turns the conflict into the war of attrition with inevitable defeat of Germany as result
As far as both Czechs and Soviets were concerned Poland was de facto German ally (it eventually (1938) helped itself to small part of Czechoslovakia and German Fall Gruen specifically counted on Polish intervention to create “second front” in the Czechs rear). During the 1938 crisis USSR military planning as in regards to Czech aid concentrated on assault on Poland -primarily from the air.

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#24

Post by Tim Smith » 31 Mar 2004, 14:57

Ah! So Stalin DID plot to use the Czech crisis as an opportunity to settle old scores with Poland, if it came down to a major war! Fascinating.....

That would make an interesting conflict of Germany and Poland versus Czechoslovakia, Britain, France, and the USSR!

I'm not sure what Italy would do. Mussolini would want to join Hitler against the USSR, but avoid war with the Western Powers. Italy just wasn't ready. She was already economically weakened from her military adventures in Ethiopia and Spain - a major war in 1938 was the last thing she needed. The chances are that Italy would stay neutral.

If the USSR did attack Poland in 1938 after a war had broken out over Czechoslovakia, would Chamberlain try to reach a negotiated peace with Hitler as soon as possible, trying to persuade him to give up his claim to Czech territory? Chamberlain wouldn't want the USSR taking over all of Poland. Hitler might agree to this in order to get the British and French off his back so he could concentrate on the Soviet threat to his eastern frontier. That way, Germany might be able to prevent a total Polish collapse against the USSR, assuming the Poles are desperate enough to accept German help.

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#25

Post by Baltasar » 31 Mar 2004, 16:25

Tim Smith wrote: If the USSR did attack Poland in 1938 after a war had broken out over Czechoslovakia, would Chamberlain try to reach a negotiated peace with Hitler as soon as possible, trying to persuade him to give up his claim to Czech territory? Chamberlain wouldn't want the USSR taking over all of Poland. Hitler might agree to this in order to get the British and French off his back so he could concentrate on the Soviet threat to his eastern frontier. That way, Germany might be able to prevent a total Polish collapse against the USSR, assuming the Poles are desperate enough to accept German help.
Thats surely an interesting scenario you're describing here and it would look really weird on a tactical map, I presume.

But what would be Chamberlains demands for a cease fire with Germany and what would Hitler expect for him? I somehow don't see Hitler were eager to negotiate and retreating from Czechoslowakia while the Allies are drawn into a wider conflict with germany in the middle. Hitler could still offer some kind of Molotov-Ribbentropp pact to Stalin, who would be likely to agree, seeing one enemy less in the game with a very favourable outcome for himself. The Allies would surely be hapered while Hitler was sitting between them and would have a hard time reinforcing the polish front.
On the other hand, Hitler always wanted to fight the Bolsheviks, so if Chamberlain plays his cards right, he could turn the enemy into an (temporary) ally, using the Wehrmacht as a first line of defence against the reds on polish soil.

Actually, I don't know which alternative is more likely...
Last edited by Baltasar on 01 Apr 2004, 10:05, edited 1 time in total.

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#26

Post by Tim Smith » 31 Mar 2004, 19:34

Well, I imagine that Chamberlain would still want to find a way to stop the war, if possible. Stalin taking over Poland, the Baltic States and East Germany might still be considered too high a price to pay to get rid of Hitler - it just creates Soviet dominance in Eastern and Central Europe instead of Nazi dominance. Ideally, Chamberlain wanted neither of these two options.

A better outcome for Britain might be to say to Hitler "Get out of Czechoslovakia and help Poland against the USSR, and we'll make peace with you, with no other conditions." Then Hitler will either help save Poland from Stalin (less likely) or split Poland with Stalin (more likely). But in the latter case, Germany will only recover a little more than the old 1914 German border, Stalin will get most of Poland including Warsaw itself (unlike the situation in 1939). That leaves the USSR right on the German border posing a huge threat if Germany gets herself entangled with the West at a later stage. Stalin's aggressive move against Poland would leave Hitler less willing to trust him while considering an invasion of France.

Having the USSR right on his border might make Hitler more inclined to invade Russia before invading France. Because Hitler would realise that every time he moved against the West, Stalin would take advantage of him in the East, and might even stab him in the back. Whereas France is less likely to interfere in a Nazi/Soviet war.

A Nazi/Soviet war is exactly what Britain and France want (as long as the outcome is a stalemate, neither side wins). Let the two mad dictators fight each other to exhaustion while they remain neutral. Maybe they might provide limited help to whoever's losing to keep the fight going for as long as possible.

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#27

Post by Oleg Grigoryev » 31 Mar 2004, 23:05

Wow guys hold your horses. First of all the USSR would never involved itself in the war unless (as it historically happens) it was part of the firmly establish alliance with at least France. Secondly as far is the USSR was concerned the goal would be getting rid of Nazis who by far were the greater evil for the Soviet point of view – the war with Poland was only contemplated in the case of the refusal of the later to provide corridors and simultaneously its participation in the conflict on the side of Germans and against Czechs and occupation of thelater or inclusion of it into USSR was never an option. Thirdly as 1938 Germany was concerned Poland was it ally so there is no way for 1938 Molotov-Ribbentrop. And finally economically and military Germany was in no way prepared to fight the prolonged war. Czechs on the other hand the strongest army in the central Europe and the only thing they had to do – is hang on. Remember German Army of 1938 is far cry from the German Army of 1940 –with balk of its tanks being PzI and PzII which pretty much can be stop by any canon or AT rifle and which can be dealt with by any T-26 or BT.

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#28

Post by Tim Smith » 01 Apr 2004, 00:07

Come on oleg. You're telling us Stalin didn't have a grudge against Poland? The Poles took a large slice of former Russian territory after the war of 1920 - at the very least Stalin would have wanted that back!

The 'corridor' request by the Soviets to pass troops through Polish territory is every bit as much of a cynical ploy as the 'corridor' request by the Nazis in 1939. The 'corridor' demand is just an excuse to attack Poland, because Stalin would know perfectly well that the Bolshevik-hating Poles would never let the Red Army onto Polish soil for any reason whatsoever.

If there is a war in 1938, and the Poles say no to the Red Army crossing their territory - hey presto, the perfect excuse on a plate for Stalin. Stalin can say to his Western allies: "Look, the evil Polish leaders are refusing to cooperate in the destruction of the Nazi scourge! They are reneging on their old alliance with France! They must be in league with Hitler! But don't worry, the great Soviet people will deal with these traitors to the League of Nations!"

At the very least Poland will be driven back to the Curzon Line 'B'. If the Poles don't give up fighting after that (probable), then the Red Army would have to complete the conquest. (Actually Stalin would be tempted to do that anyway to remove the Polish anti-Soviet military regime.) If that happens, then Stalin might allow Poland to remain nominally independent, instead of incorporating it into the USSR, by turning it into a Soviet satellite with a Communist government, as it did in 1945.

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#29

Post by Oleg Grigoryev » 01 Apr 2004, 02:12

Come on oleg. You're telling us Stalin didn't have a grudge against Poland? The Poles took a large slice of former Russian territory after the war of 1920 - at the very least Stalin would have wanted that back!
There is a big thing between what Stalin wanted and what Stalin would do. Neither France nor GB would approve of seizure of Poland and the last thing Stalin needed is a United anti-Soviet front.
The 'corridor' request by the Soviets to pass troops through Polish territory is every bit as much of a cynical ploy as the 'corridor' request by the Nazis in 1939.
it is not even in the same category, for the very simple reason that seizure of Poland was never an option in 1938. Nor was supposed corridor to be a permanent thing.
The 'corridor' demand is just an excuse to attack Poland, because Stalin would know perfectly well that the Bolshevik-hating Poles would never let the Red Army onto Polish soil for any reason whatsoever.
Fear of political isolation as well as chunk of Silezia as a reward is a very strong argument…
If there is a war in 1938, and the Poles say no to the Red Army crossing their territory - hey presto, the perfect excuse on a plate for Stalin. Stalin can say to his Western allies: "Look, the evil Polish leaders are refusing to cooperate in the destruction of the Nazi scourge! They are reneging on their old alliance with France! They must be in league with Hitler! But don't worry, the great Soviet people will deal with these traitors to the League of Nations!"
The state of the Red Army in 1938 left much to be desired. Consequently the war with Poland was not something Stalin was looking for but rather last resort measure. Btw there is no “must be” in “must be in league with Hitler” –they were. Poland got Tseshin region of Czechoslovakia in 1938.
At the very least Poland will be driven back to the Curzon Line 'B'. If the Poles don't give up fighting after that (probable), then the Red Army would have to complete the conquest. (Actually Stalin would be tempted to do that anyway to remove the Polish anti-Soviet military regime.) If that happens, then Stalin might allow Poland to remain nominally independent, instead of incorporating it into the USSR, by turning it into a Soviet satellite with a Communist government, as it did in 1945.
not unless Stalin wants united anti-Soviet front and he did not. Besides balance of power in Europe was not the same in 1938 and in 1945.

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#30

Post by Tim Smith » 01 Apr 2004, 12:18

Hi, oleg:

Hypothetically, how do you rate the USSR's chances against Poland in October 1938? Assuming no-one else intervenes?

Relatively quick conquest, long tough fight, or a repeat of 1920?

(Interested in other people's answers too!)

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