Operation Hercules - would it have worked?

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
flakbait
Member
Posts: 234
Joined: 22 Oct 2013, 02:37

Re: Operation Hercules - would it have worked?

#61

Post by flakbait » 17 Feb 2015, 06:47

At that point with the Japanese military`s strategic oil reserves steadily dwindling because of the US embargo it was a flat out stark choice of either suffer a humiliating national `loss of face` and be forced to withdrawl it`s military forces from China, Manchuria, and French Indochina or to brazenly seize the petroleum resources she so desperately needed in a swift series of campaigns and then defend them to the death...

User avatar
JAG13
Member
Posts: 689
Joined: 23 Mar 2013, 02:50

Re: Operation Hercules - would it have worked?

#62

Post by JAG13 » 17 Feb 2015, 16:22

flakbait wrote:At that point with the Japanese military`s strategic oil reserves steadily dwindling because of the US embargo it was a flat out stark choice of either suffer a humiliating national `loss of face` and be forced to withdrawl it`s military forces from China, Manchuria, and French Indochina or to brazenly seize the petroleum resources she so desperately needed in a swift series of campaigns and then defend them to the death...
Japan moved into Indochina, and suffered the embargo, AFTER Barbarossa and once the SU had been neutralized as a threat. Hence my question, does Japan move south in 1941 without Barbarossa?

Nomonhan really scared them IIRC.


flakbait
Member
Posts: 234
Joined: 22 Oct 2013, 02:37

Re: Operation Hercules - would it have worked?

#63

Post by flakbait » 17 Feb 2015, 18:54

Yes you are correct but the under laying reason for the petrol embargo (Imperial military operations with the China and Manchuria occupations ) began well before Barbarossa started or was even planned. Would guess that if the Imperial Japanese government had been aware that the then unknown Siberian oil deposits were as extensive as they are now known to be that seizing them instead of the Dutch East Indies certainly would have seemed suddenly MUCH more `attractive` with the `bonuses` of #1: avoiding immediate conflict with the western Allies and #2: giving Nazi Germany at least some minor `help` by directly attacking the Soviet Union from the East when Comrade Stalin could literally LEAST afford it...The Soviet forces in Siberia had by now been striped to the bone to assist with staving off the victorious Nazis else where ...

User avatar
JAG13
Member
Posts: 689
Joined: 23 Mar 2013, 02:50

Re: Operation Hercules - would it have worked?

#64

Post by JAG13 » 17 Feb 2015, 19:50

flakbait wrote:Yes you are correct but the under laying reason for the petrol embargo (Imperial military operations with the China and Manchuria occupations ) began well before Barbarossa started or was even planned. Would guess that if the Imperial Japanese government had been aware that the then unknown Siberian oil deposits were as extensive as they are now known to be that seizing them instead of the Dutch East Indies certainly would have seemed suddenly MUCH more `attractive` with the `bonuses` of #1: avoiding immediate conflict with the western Allies and #2: giving Nazi Germany at least some minor `help` by directly attacking the Soviet Union from the East when Comrade Stalin could literally LEAST afford it...The Soviet forces in Siberia had by now been striped to the bone to assist with staving off the victorious Nazis else where ...
The pretext yes, but the actual embargo that set the Japanese in motion was after B and applied in part to disuade the Japanese from joining the Germans in thrashing the ruskies so the embargo was also in part Barbie dependant... with Stalin unbounded it is hard to see the IJA willing to further stretch its resources placing themselves at the mercy of uncle Joe AND the US.

flakbait
Member
Posts: 234
Joined: 22 Oct 2013, 02:37

Re: Operation Hercules - would it have worked?

#65

Post by flakbait » 18 Feb 2015, 00:14

The possible irony is that in the late 1980s petroleum was discovered in Siberia within easy distance of the former Manchurian border. Assuming Imperial Japan somehow became aware of this oil and attempted to seize this area due to it being far closer to the Japanese Home Islands than the Dutch East Indies and because they already held Manchuria and Korea would the Americans get involved ? With no surprise attack on Pearl Harbor or the Phillipines, doubtful. For all practical purposes there would be almost nothing Great Britain could reasonably do to assist the Soviets in the Far East...am not saying this would cause the immediate collapse of the Soviet Union BUT with no DIRECT attack on the US does Lend Lease to Comrade Stalin reach the same levels it historically did ? And with the possible loss of the port Vladivodstok how much does this affect the Lend Lease that the Russians do get, particularly aircraft flown in from Alaska ? If only the Japanese had known...

User avatar
stg 44
Member
Posts: 3376
Joined: 03 Dec 2002, 02:42
Location: illinois

Re: Operation Hercules - would it have worked?

#66

Post by stg 44 » 24 Feb 2015, 17:59

flakbait wrote:The possible irony is that in the late 1980s petroleum was discovered in Siberia within easy distance of the former Manchurian border. Assuming Imperial Japan somehow became aware of this oil and attempted to seize this area due to it being far closer to the Japanese Home Islands than the Dutch East Indies and because they already held Manchuria and Korea would the Americans get involved ? With no surprise attack on Pearl Harbor or the Phillipines, doubtful. For all practical purposes there would be almost nothing Great Britain could reasonably do to assist the Soviets in the Far East...am not saying this would cause the immediate collapse of the Soviet Union BUT with no DIRECT attack on the US does Lend Lease to Comrade Stalin reach the same levels it historically did ? And with the possible loss of the port Vladivodstok how much does this affect the Lend Lease that the Russians do get, particularly aircraft flown in from Alaska ? If only the Japanese had known...
No, the true irony was the major sources of oil in Manchuko that Japan already controlled:
Image
Image
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daqing_Field
http://alternatehistory.com/discussion/ ... hp?t=70329

Post Reply

Return to “What if”