The Edge wrote:So, situation was little better than my “worst case scenario”. But conditions were harsh and quantities meagre – just to meet (to same extent) the needs of civilian population, most of military items not even considered (of course, Army find the way to smuggle some semi-military stuff; again not much in quantity; problems with serviceability, etc.)
If we divide 300 ships with the duration of WWII (number of months), that’s less than 5 ships per month. I also believe time-table was more dense in first part of the war, until the Fall of France. After USA became Allied nation, deliveries probably decreased even more… 3 to 4 ships a month? Not much, in any case.
Sweden had a trade agreement with UK from December 1939 limiting trade levels at the 1938 level and no reexport to Germany. Otherwise Sweden could trade pretty freely, bringing in Oil, etcetera at resonable volumes. In addition, the US war zone started south of Bergen i Norway, and Churchill forbade RN to control US shipping so you could freely send anything on US keels to Bergen up to April 1940.
The German occupation of Norway pushed the import up through the Finnish harbour of Petsamo (Limhammari) up to Barbarossa. This negotiated trafic started early 1941 and remaind in effect up to 1945. So your worst case scenario for Sweden without being able to trade with a neutral Netherlands is one thing.
The Edge wrote:Let’s back now to Holland. Under USA pressure, Britain would probably allow shipments to Holland. Quantities and kind of articles will be negotiated with both Britain & Third Reich (Germans would probably demand to place their men in Dutch ports to control what’s going in/out). Let’s say Holland would get 3 to 4 ships a month (one of them with oil). That’s bare minimum for civilian needs (plus very little for military).
Why should the Dutch get in the same situation as the Swedes?
In 1940 we would have Sweden, Finland, Switzerland and the Netherlands able to trade by transfers through Germany. Netherland could thus import the quotas for all four countries as being Neutral trade.
The Netherlands would be at the frontline between Britain and Germany, there where a lot of mine warfare in the Channel area but not that kind of uncontested mine barrage that Germany established in Skagerack.
It would not been easy for GB or US to invade NEI before 1942, so keep Netherlands strong in Europe is a selfinterest to avoid a situation like the French colonies.
The British also had far more at stake in NEI, relative Sweden who was completely written off from the Allied cause between the summer of 1940 and up to Stalingrad.
So the British would like to see a flow from the Netherlands to NEI, while the Germans would like to see a flow in the oposite direction supporting the four neutrals trade with Germany of goods not imported through the blockade. Germany recieves more stable supply of Swedish iron ore, Swiss ammo, Dutch manufactured goods and Finnish copper while the Germans strangehold on these countries lessens.
The Edge wrote:
So Nuyt’s “best case scenario” is unattainable – Holland has nothing to offer, except cash from "better days" – no “oil for steel”, no “rubber for AA guns”, etc. Rearmament program would be seriously hampered, and lack of fuel (and raw materials for ammo production) would made Dutch soldiers/airmen/seamen even less trained for eventual combat.
Jumped conclusion, The Best case scenario might be too much but not nothing.
Time to produce and time to train would be available for the Dutch.
And Dutch industry would probably have to spend a greater part on exports than the simple, "guns for rubber" scheme. Just look at the development of Swedish armed forces between April 1940 and the summer of 1943.
The Edge wrote:
This opportunity could be used to sell some of them also – couple of subs to Sweden, one pair to Franco, destroyer or two to Portugal…
I found a way how Holland could make some significant trade in 1940/41!
If you knew what kind of money Sweden spent on design and build their cruisers..
To sell a Dutch cruiser whould keep the trade balance in Dutch favor for a long time.
And Swedens subs where Dutch designs.
Shippbuilding in general was highly profitable during the war.
The Edge wrote:That sounds as interesting story. Any link for it?
Not on the net, I have no English language source at all,
but it's from reliable, academic sources.