Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#16

Post by Paul Lakowski » 12 Nov 2016, 05:48

ljadw wrote:About the importance of the number of escorts ,one can look at the examples of three fast convoys that were attacked .

HX 49 :49 ships with 11 escorts,attacked by 5 U Boats.

HX 212 : 43 ships with 8 escorts, attacked by 17 U Boats.

HX 228 :60 ships with 8 escorts,attacked by 9 U Boats .

If there was a corelation between the strenght of the escorts and the number of losses, one could expect that HX 49 would have lower losses than HX 212 and HX 228,but the reality is different:

HX 49 lost 12 ships, HX 212 6 and HX 228 4.

Not only was there no corelation between losses and escorts ,but also no corelation between the number of attacking U Boats and losses .

seriously !!! you quoting the results of 3 convoys out of the nearly 1500 Atlantic convoys during the war. Even if you limit it to the 186 convoys known to have been attacked..... 3 convoys is statistically nothing ! irrelevant.

please study the following document.

http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USN/rep/ASW-51/

over a large enough population of events, each attacking U-boat average one kill.

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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#17

Post by Ironmachine » 12 Nov 2016, 09:59

ljadw wrote:If there was a corelation between the strenght of the escorts and the number of losses, one could expect that HX 49 would have lower losses than HX 212 and HX 228,but the reality is different:

HX 49 lost 12 ships, HX 212 6 and HX 228 4.

Not only was there no corelation between losses and escorts ,but also no corelation between the number of attacking U Boats and losses.
Where did you get the data from? Because according to u-boat.net, HX 49 lost 4 ships, HX 212 lost 10 (plus 3 damaged) and HX 228 lost 6, one of them an escort (and 2 damaged). Which, by the way, shows a correlation between the number of attacking submarines and losses, if we chose to ignore all other factors. :)
However, other webpages, like http://www.warsailors.com and http://www.convoyweb.org.uk, show different numbers of ships sunk for those convoys. There are even differences in the number of merchants and escorts in them.
So if it is futile, as Paul Lakowski stated, to search a correlation from just three convoys, what can we say when there is not even an agreement about the correct data to be used?


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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#18

Post by ljadw » 12 Nov 2016, 16:13

Source : HX 49 , HX 212, HX 228

Source HX 49 mentions : 49 ships, 11 escorts, attacked by 5 U Boats, losses : 12 ships .

And, of the 40 convoys that lost more than 6 ships, there were only 5 fast ones .This proves that speed was protecting convoys and if speed protected convoys, this implies that the overwhelming majority of the fast convoys were not intercepted by U Boats, because their speed was greater and because the U Boats had to come from far away .Sometimes it took the U Boats days to catch up with a convoy .

The truth is that most convoys (fast or slow ) were not detected , that those who were detected were mostly not attacked (the number of escorts was only a minor reason) and that those who were attacked suffered only small losses .

Speed also replaced escorts : the Queen Elizabeth never was escorted and never was attacked .
Last edited by ljadw on 12 Nov 2016, 22:56, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#19

Post by Ironmachine » 12 Nov 2016, 16:46

ljadw wrote:Source : HX 79 , HX 212, HX 228

Source HX 79 mentions : 49 ships, 11 escorts, attacked by 5 U Boats, losses : 12 ships
?
What source is this?

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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#20

Post by ljadw » 12 Nov 2016, 22:51

I googled HX 49, HX 212, HX 228 and there I found the information .

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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#21

Post by ljadw » 12 Nov 2016, 23:11

Ironmachine wrote:
ljadw wrote:If there was a corelation between the strenght of the escorts and the number of losses, one could expect that HX 49 would have lower losses than HX 212 and HX 228,but the reality is different:

HX 49 lost 12 ships, HX 212 6 and HX 228 4.

Not only was there no corelation between losses and escorts ,but also no corelation between the number of attacking U Boats and losses.
Where did you get the data from? Because according to u-boat.net, HX 49 lost 4 ships, HX 212 lost 10 (plus 3 damaged) and HX 228 lost 6, one of them an escort (and 2 damaged). Which, by the way, shows a correlation between the number of attacking submarines and losses, if we chose to ignore all other factors. :)
However, other webpages, like http://www.warsailors.com and http://www.convoyweb.org.uk, show different numbers of ships sunk for those convoys. There are even differences in the number of merchants and escorts in them.
So if it is futile, as Paul Lakowski stated, to search a correlation from just three convoys, what can we say when there is not even an agreement about the correct data to be used?
The losses of HX 212 (6 ships ) are confirmed by Clay Blair in "The Hunted ) Appendix 3 .The same for the losses of HX 228 : 4 merchant ships and one escort .

Between september and december 1942 there were 16 fast HX convoys who lost 9 ships and 17 slow SC convoys who lost 30 ships (same source ); thus it is obvious that speed was a great benefit ,although it was not always decisive : there were cases where U Boats attacked succesfully a fast convoy and failed against a slow convoy ,it would depend from where the U Boats had to come . But in most cases fast convoys were saver than slow convoys .



About the choice between looking for escorts /merchant ships : the loss of a escort would not mean that less merchant ships would go to/return fron Britain ,because the first imperative was to detect the convoys and this happened mostly by chance .

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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#22

Post by Paul Lakowski » 13 Nov 2016, 03:44

YOUR SAMPLE SIZE IS FAR TO SMALL TO BE RELEVANT. READ THE DOCS

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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#23

Post by Ironmachine » 13 Nov 2016, 12:31

ljadw wrote:I googled HX 49, HX 212, HX 228 and there I found the information .
I also googled them, and found different information
ljadw wrote:The losses of HX 212 (6 ships ) are confirmed by Clay Blair in "The Hunted ) Appendix 3 .The same for the losses of HX 228 : 4 merchant ships and one escort .
Some differences may be due to whether or not merchants that dropped out of convoys (or under other circumstances) are counted against convoy losses. However the difference regarding HX 49 seems too big for that.

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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#24

Post by Ironmachine » 13 Nov 2016, 12:44

The following information, coming from the Broadsides Discussion Forum at http://www.navalreview.ca, may be of interest:
The SC series of convoys was introduced in August 1940 to provide a system of protection for slow merchant ships (7.5 knots minimum, a speed often not achieved), which had previously been sailing independently, with disastrous consequences. Sydney, Cape Breton, was chosen as the western terminus to help ease congestion on the port of Halifax. SC-1 sailed on 15 Aug 40. During the winters of ‘41 and ‘42 the SC convoys were shifted to Halifax, due to ice in Sydney harbour and its approaches. In Aug 42, when the terminus for the HX series of convoys was shifted to New York City, the SC convoys were moved to Halifax, with a temporary interval where they also originated from New York between Sep 42 and Mar 43.
Of the 177 SC convoys, only three failed to reach their destination. SC-52 lost four of its 34 ships to U-boats in Oct 41 and, with prospects for continued heavy opposition, was returned to Sydney by a tortuous circumnavigation of Newfoundland. SC-62 and SC-63 were scattered by bad weather in Jan 42 and completed their voyages without loss as independently routed ships.
The ‘Battles of the Atlantic’ for the RCN most often revolved around the struggle to protect convoys. In all, only 29 of the 177 SC convoys were attacked by U-boats and only 145 ships were lost from the total of 6,806 ships escorted (2.1%). Included in the total number sunk were: seven ships lost in collisions, six that sank in storms, five that were wrecked on shore, two sunk by aircraft, and one sunk by a British minefield. All others were the victims of u-boats. The number of attacks is quite misleading. The relatively low loss rate was mainly made possible by intelligence and evasive routing, without which losses would have substantially exceeded the 3% rate considered to be unsustainable. Up to the end of Mar 43, the loss rate for intercepted convoys was 13.3% (138/1034). The loss rate for all the 29 SC convoys attacked during the war was 12.3% (145/1175). Additionally, five other ships were damaged. Also, a large number of ‘stragglers’ were sunk when they dropped out of convoys; these losses were not counted against convoy losses. Likewise, a number of ‘rompers’, ships that detached from the convoy to move ahead independently, were lost that were also not counted.
The worst single-convoy losses occurred in Oct 40 when convoy SC-7 lost 15 of the 34 ships under escort (44%). Clearly, when U-boats were able to engage a convoy, they inflicted losses completely beyond the ability of the Allies to sustain. The key, therefore, was not to engage in a series of tactical battles the Allies could not win but to avoid engagements whenever and wherever possible. However, as the number of operational U-boat increased, the prospects for evading them diminished. In a situation report from Admiral Sir Percy Noble, C-in-C Western Approaches, sent to the Admiralty on 29 Sep 42, the spectre of outright defeat was raised. He wrote:
It has always been recognized that the Atlantic lifeline is the vital area in this war – in fact, the war could be lost in the Atlantic … As it appears to me, the enemy will shortly be in a position to attack every convoy, and the amount of protection that we shall be able to afford the convoys cannot be described as adequate. I can see no remedy except the provision of more destroyers or reasonably fast escort vessels with good endurance and more aircraft.” [Emphasis in original text.]
Without the inestimable advantage of signal decryption, the Atlantic War would have been lost long before the so-called ‘Turning Point’ was reached in July 1943. The ability to evade the enemy prolonged the decisive moment until sufficient forces could be gathered to win a series of battles outright that upset the enemy’s risk-reward assessment of the situation. However, ‘winning’ did not mean achieving outright command of the sea. The enemy continued to resist at sea by all means at their disposal until the very last day of the war. In fact, merchant vessels were sunk on both the opening and closing day of the ‘War in Europe’, and many more were sunk by the vast number of mines, both Allied and Axis, that remained a serious and persistent threat for many years. Mines from the Atlantic War are still occasionally washed up on shorelines, including Nova Scotia’s, and brought up in the trawls of fishing vessels.
The ‘HX’ Convoy System
After my post describing the ‘slow’ SC convoys, I received many requests for information about the other series of east-bound convoys, the ‘fast’ HX series, which many Canadian warships escorted during the Second World War in the Atlantic. Here is some analysis about them.
The first convoy, HX-1, was a 15-ship group that departed Halifax on 16 Sep 39 (Canada’s Declaration of War occurred in parliament on 09 Sep and was given Royal Ascent by the Governor General a day later). HMCS St. Laurent (H89), LCdr. Arthur Mitchell ‘Boomer’ Hope, RCN, CO, and HMCS Saguenay (D79), LCdr. George ‘Gus’ Ralph Miles, RCN, CO, both River-class destroyers, formed the close escort as the convoy departed port. All cargo ships in HX-1 arrived safely in Liverpool on 30 Sep after a 14-day voyage.
In the early stages of the war, the close escort only remained with the convoy long enough for it to clear the ‘submarine danger zone’ around the approaches to the port of Halifax, about one day’s sail. The ‘ocean escort’ for early convoys was usually comprised of a heavy cruiser or an armed merchant cruiser. Later, Resolution-class battleships were attached singly to the HX convoys due to the danger of attack by German major warships. These were attached as a deterrent against attacks by German surface warships or auxiliary warships. They were not present for defence against submarines. A local escort group of minor warships would meet the convoy approximately a day’s sail from the destination and escort it into port. This distance was increased as the danger area from enemy action expanded.
All HX convoys were destined for Liverpool, a voyage of approximately 2,500 miles. The average speed of HX-1 was 7.5 knots. The last convoy in this series was the 56-ship HX-358, which sailed from New York on 23 May 45 and arrived at Liverpool on 06 Jun 45, also after a 14-day voyage. The greater distance, 3,165 versus 2,500 miles, resulted in an average speed of 9.4 knots. With the exception of the convoy system of the east coast of the U.K., the HX series was the longest continuously running convoy series of the war. Originally, the convoys were split into a slow group that sailed at the prescribed nine-knot minimum for inclusion and a faster (HXF) group of ships that were not capable of the 15 knots required for independent sailing. The HFX convoys delayed sailing by a few days and the two groups would amalgamate before entering the submarine danger zone in the Eastern Atlantic. Eventually, the dwindling number of fast merchant ships and the expanding submarine danger area brought an end to the HFX series, of which there were 17 convoys. The last one sailed from Halifax on 02 December 40 and no ships were lost from any convoy in this sub-series. Beginning with HX-208 in 17 Sep 42, the port of departure for HX convoys was shifted to New York (strangely, without a change to the series name), and the RCN concentrated on escorting the SC convoys. Once moved to New York, the average size of a convoy increased from 38 ships to 56 ships, whereas the average size of SC convoy remained at 38 ships (the opening out of the convoy schedules by 30% was identical for both ports), indicating that logistical limitations in Halifax played a part in determining convoy size. HX-300 was the largest convoy in the series with 160 ships (convoys of over 100 ships were called ‘monster’ convoys) while HX-4 was the smallest with only ten ships.
In total, 10% of the HX convoys were attacked while they were in formed groups. Of the 110 ships sunk, 96 were claimed by U-boats, five by the armoured ship Admiral Scheer, and the remaining 14 were lost to mines, aircraft, collisions, groundings, and storms. These losses totalled 0.6 percent of the 17,744 ships in the convoys. The worst convoy battle in this series occurred in March 1943 when HX-229 lost 12 of its 38 ships (31.5%), all to u-boats. A further 60 ships were sunk that had straggled behind HX convoys. Another 36 ships were listed as ‘losses out of convoy’, which were ships sunk before the ocean escort arrived, or after detachment from the convoy while en route to their various ports of destination, or after a convoy had been scattered due to attack. This brings the loss rate to 1.1%, which was considered sustainable (3% was considered unsustainable). A further 38 ships were damaged while in convoy.
HX-84 was dispersed on 05 Nov 40 when threatened by Admiral Scheer, whose five victims from that convoy included the Canadian Pacific steamer SS Beaverford (10,042 GRT), Captain Hugh Pettigrew, Master; a fast and multi-purpose ship that was one of the prides of the pre-war CP fleet. An independently routed merchantman, plus the armed merchant cruiser HMS Jervis Bay were also sunk. HX-168 was dispersed in Jan 42, likely due to the same adverse weather that caused SC-62 and SC-63 to be dispersed, but all of these 36 ships also arrived in Liverpool safely. Adverse weather made attacks by u-boats far less likely.
The HX convoy series is held up as a model of success based on the gross numbers. However, the HX convoy system relied heavily on evasive routing to prevent losses, just as did the SC convoys and all others. Of the 377 HX/HXF and BHX (a single ‘joiner’ convoy from Bermuda) convoys, for the 38 convoys that were engaged, the actual sinking rate for the entire war was 4.85%, which does not include the ships damaged (6.44%). The loss rates (sunk and sunk plus damaged) in the ‘critical period’ up to Mar 43 were 5.92% and 7.45%, respectively for intercepted convoys. Spates of enemy successes created what Stephen Roskill call “real panic” in the Admiralty: convoys HX-70 to HX-74 were all hit in Sep 40; seven of the 16 HX-107 to HX-117 convoys in Apr 41 were attacked. Clearly, the rate of loss from intercepted convoys was unsustainable. This casualty rate explains the desperation of the Allies at certain periods of the war when German naval signals could not be deciphered, particularly in 1942.
Admirals Raeder and Doenitz both strongly resented Hitler’s interference with the anti-shipping campaign when he ordered U-boats be diverted to the North Sea for the invasion of Norway, and for operations in the Mediterranean Sea and the Arctic Ocean. Without these respites and the benefits of signals intelligence, the rate of loss would have been substantially higher. The claims by a number of post-war authors that the Battle of the Atlantic was never in doubt was not an opinion held in either the British or Canadian naval headquarters. The statistics show that signals intelligence, both good and bad planning, plus strong and weak leadership all played critical roles in the eventual outcome.

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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#25

Post by Paul Lakowski » 13 Nov 2016, 22:47

As Freidman reports in NETWORK-CENTRIC WARFARE, the critical period was the build up to detonation over the Anglo/American invasion of Europe from Torch to D-Day. That stretched from late 1941-44 , which also happens to be the period were B-Dienst merchant code cracking bore the best fruit and the Wolf Pack system reached its stride. During this period the measure of success was how much tonnage got across the transatlantic bridge.

Reportedly 30 million tons/year was the minimum needed to keep Britain in the war . To actually invade Europe would require something like 64 million tons per year. US DOCUMENTS REPORT 127 million tons logistics shipped to the theaters with ~ 78million tons to Europe from 1942-1944.

http://www.history.army.mil/html/books/ ... _70-29.pdf

“Canadian Veterans Affairs” REPORT 165 million tons delivered to EUROPE through the war.
http://www.veterans.gc.ca/eng/remembran ... n-navy/sww

Allied shipping moved 165 million tons of goods/supplies/munitions to Europe throughout the war . In the first few years these convoys averaged 7.5 knots , while this average reached 9 knots when America got involved and 11knots by the end of the war. If shipping was limited to only MV of 16 knots or more, the Germans would have won the war. There just was not enough fast MV in the world.

Reportedly Lend Lease required 18 million tons shipped while D-Day also needed another 18 million tons shipped .The allied bombing campaign must have needed the same , with the war against “ the soft underbelly” needing another 10 million tons?

But all this had to be over and above the tonnage needed to keep UK in the war which was said to be ~ 30-26 million per year. From 1940-45 225 Million tons was shipped - but the UK logistics per year reduces this to roughly 64 million to defeat Hitler

EVERY TON NOT DELIVERED WOULD HAVE DELAYED THE VARIOUS CRITICAL WAR DATES. FIGHTING THE U-BOAT WAR WAS CRITICAL.

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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#26

Post by ljadw » 13 Nov 2016, 23:04

But you forget the most important thing : the U Boats had NO chance at all to starve Britain .

Other point : British dry-cargo imports in 1944 were 25 million tons and in 1944, the losses from U Boats were almost inexistant.Thus I am not convinced that the number of imports was depending on the defeat of the U Boats .

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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#27

Post by Paul Lakowski » 14 Nov 2016, 01:52

That was the goal in 1940/41 .After that they were there to truncate the flow of American munitions & fuel that powered the allied war effort. Every ton the U-Boats could destroy was one less ton used against the Axis.

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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#28

Post by ljadw » 14 Nov 2016, 13:26

OTOH....

British dry-cargo imports

1940 : 41,9 million tons

1941 : 30.5

1942 :22,9

1943 :26,4

1944:25,1

In 1944 Britain imported less than in 1943, and this while the U Boat threat was less in 1944 than in 1943.

This would indicate that the decrease of the imports was not caused by the U Boats.

Also : British-controlled merchant-shipping 1939-1944

9/3/1939 : 2999 ships and 17, 784 million of GRT

9/30/1940 : 3757 ships and 21, 373 million of GRT

9/30/41 : 3608 ships and 20,552 million of GRT

12/31/ 1941 :3618 ships and 20,693 million of GRT

Merchant fleet increased and imports were going down . A possible (probable ) explanation is that the imports were decreased intentionally to save foreign currency and that the decrease was (partially/mainly ) absorbed by a higher domestic production :tillage was going up from 8,8 million ton in 1939 to 14,5 million in 1943 .

To return to the OP : I am not convinced that targeting the escorts would be a good strategy : it would cost fuel,ammunition and especially time : while the U Boats would attack (during hours ) the escorts, the convoy would escape . Loss of escorts would not mean that more convoys could be attacked,as the first requirement for an attack was to detect a convoy, and to detetect a convoy ,presence or absence of escorts was irrelevant .

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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#29

Post by Sheldrake » 14 Nov 2016, 14:34

ljadw wrote:OTOH....

British dry-cargo imports

1940 : 41,9 million tons

1941 : 30.5

1942 :22,9

1943 :26,4

1944:25,1

In 1944 Britain imported less than in 1943, and this while the U Boat threat was less in 1944 than in 1943.

This would indicate that the decrease of the imports was not caused by the U Boats.

Also : British-controlled merchant-shipping 1939-1944

9/3/1939 : 2999 ships and 17, 784 million of GRT

9/30/1940 : 3757 ships and 21, 373 million of GRT

9/30/41 : 3608 ships and 20,552 million of GRT

12/31/ 1941 :3618 ships and 20,693 million of GRT

Merchant fleet increased and imports were going down . A possible (probable ) explanation is that the imports were decreased intentionally to save foreign currency and that the decrease was (partially/mainly ) absorbed by a higher domestic production :tillage was going up from 8,8 million ton in 1939 to 14,5 million in 1943 .

To return to the OP : I am not convinced that targeting the escorts would be a good strategy : it would cost fuel,ammunition and especially time : while the U Boats would attack (during hours ) the escorts, the convoy would escape . Loss of escorts would not mean that more convoys could be attacked,as the first requirement for an attack was to detect a convoy, and to detetect a convoy ,presence or absence of escorts was irrelevant .
This also reflects the result of a massive shift in agricultural effort. In 1939 British agriculture was geared towards dairy and pasture with the UK importing grain and meat. During the war agricultural land was reallocated for cereals and vegetables, lots more land was taken into production, irrigation programs increased yields, even despite aboput a county's worth of land being turned over to military used airfields and military installations.

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Re: Did Dönitz ever consider a strategy of targeting convoy escorts?

#30

Post by ljadw » 15 Nov 2016, 13:33

The information from the naval review canada is very questionable and is contradicted by the official British history :"The defeat of the enemy attack on shipping " gives the following figures :


Shipping losses by U Boats in the Atlantic Theatre 1939-1945

A total of some 165000 ships sailed from and to Britain/Europe

The losses were

711 ships sailing in convoy (= 0.43 % of the total )

215 stragglers (0.13 %)

1427 sailing independently (0.86 % )



A total of 2353 ships were lost (=1.42 %)

0.86 % is not catastrophic .

Other points

1 ) There was never a turning point : a turning point would mean that the U Boats were winning ,and they never were :at the end of 1941, Britain had more ships and more GRT than at the start of the war .

2 ) The Wolf Packs were not very efficient : in most cases the number of lost merchant ships was lower than the number of attacking U Boats .

3 ) In the Mediterranean the losses of ships in convoy were higher than those sailing independently .

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