If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

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Zirran
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If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#1

Post by Zirran » 15 Nov 2016, 04:06

So i've been doing a lot of research into Operation Sealion. I've read about what would happen if the Germans were successful in launching an Invasion of Britain.
I know that there was a plan to evacuate the Royal Family and Government if things really went tits up.

But if Britain was successfully invaded and conquered in late 1940, what would the Empire and the Dominions do? I can't seem to find anywhere about what any of them would do if such a situation happened. The only thing i've read is that if it did, then General Archibald Wavell who was a Commander in the Middle East, particularly in Egypt and the African campaign there. He would have felt no choice but to surrender as there was little hope of continuing the war. I can't remember where I read it or if it was that particular General, but I did read something along those lines.

So i'm wondering.

What would the Dominions of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and India have done if Britain had been conquered?
Also what about the rest of the Empire, the parts that were ruled from London directly. Would they have still taken orders from London like what with Vichy France and its colonies? Or would they have thrown in their lot with the exiled British Government which would have relocated to Bermuda?

Also bonus question.

Does anyone know if there were any plans to also evacuate the Governments in exile and the foreign Royalty who escaped to Britain? (Queen Wilhelmina and the Dutch and French Governments in exile for example.)

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Re: If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#2

Post by steverodgers801 » 15 Nov 2016, 21:19

yes there were plans to evacuate the government to Canada and continue the war


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Re: If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#3

Post by antfreire » 15 Nov 2016, 22:15

Those continuation plans would have crumbled if Germany had succesfully invaded England. An armistice would have been accepted by the Crown that would include the preservation of the British Empire negotiated with some kind of security to Germany that England and it's Empire would have remained neutral. After all Hitler did not want the British colonies as long as he could conquer the East which he would have if he had kept peace and commerce in the West.

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Terry Duncan
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Re: If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#4

Post by Terry Duncan » 15 Nov 2016, 22:31

antfreire wrote:Those continuation plans would have crumbled if Germany had succesfully invaded England. An armistice would have been accepted by the Crown that would include the preservation of the British Empire negotiated with some kind of security to Germany that England and it's Empire would have remained neutral. After all Hitler did not want the British colonies as long as he could conquer the East which he would have if he had kept peace and commerce in the West.
The Dominions were effectively indipendent nations, with their own right to declare war and decline an imposed treaty, so there is no reason they would accept such a deal from the Nazis, especially as the Nazis had no means at all to pressure them into agreement. The Netherlands, Norway, Yugoslavia, Greece, Czechoslovakia and Poland all saw their leadership go into exile and continure the struggle, as did a portion of the French government, so imagining the government of Britain would be any different is to deny what happened in reality was viable, and given the British plans involved transferring all naval assets to Canada, a government in exile would have been the most likely outcome. There were also significant plans for civil defence/resistence in the case of a Nazi invasion, which would likely have led to certain areas of the UK becoming hotbeds of partisan fighting, supported by small insertions of regular troops in remote areas of Scotland or Wales via naval forces.

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Re: If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#5

Post by Pips » 16 Nov 2016, 00:37

Robert Menzies, the Prime Minister of Australia from 1939 to 1941, is on record as saying that if Britain did fall in 1940 Australia would accept peace terms with Germany.

His reasoning was that to continue hostilities against Germany was impractical given there was no base from which to operate other than the Middle East, and potentially extremely harmful to the population of Great Britain. Who could be held as hostages by the Germans if the Empire continues to offer resistance.

Menzies was an ardent Empire man, in many ways a slave to British policy. But he was also a very practical politician. He knew that of Britain fell, he would never have to support of the Australian Labour Party to continue the War. Curtin, the Labour leader, had made that very clear in June of 1940. AS it was, he was operating a minority government at the time.

Menzies was also very aware of the threat posed to Australia by Japan's increasingly belligerent stance in the Pacific. And given that Australia only had a population of 7,000,000 in 1940, it was in no position to act as a belligerent on it's own. Which would have been the case if Britain fell.

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Re: If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#6

Post by Sheldrake » 16 Nov 2016, 00:44

The USA had plans to occupy Canada or at least neutralise the East Coast ports

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Re: If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#7

Post by Rob Stuart » 16 Nov 2016, 04:33

Sheldrake wrote:The USA had plans to occupy Canada or at least neutralise the East Coast ports
"Occupy" is the wrong word. Canada and the US signed a defence agreement, the Ogdensburg Agreement, in August 1940. If the UK had fallen, Canada would have welcomed the stationing of US forces in Canada to help defend the country, whether or not Canada remained a belligerent. It would not have been an occupation.

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Terry Duncan
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Re: If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#8

Post by Terry Duncan » 17 Nov 2016, 01:43

Pips wrote:Robert Menzies, the Prime Minister of Australia from 1939 to 1941, is on record as saying that if Britain did fall in 1940 Australia would accept peace terms with Germany.

His reasoning was that to continue hostilities against Germany was impractical given there was no base from which to operate other than the Middle East, and potentially extremely harmful to the population of Great Britain. Who could be held as hostages by the Germans if the Empire continues to offer resistance.

Menzies was an ardent Empire man, in many ways a slave to British policy. But he was also a very practical politician. He knew that of Britain fell, he would never have to support of the Australian Labour Party to continue the War. Curtin, the Labour leader, had made that very clear in June of 1940. AS it was, he was operating a minority government at the time.

Menzies was also very aware of the threat posed to Australia by Japan's increasingly belligerent stance in the Pacific. And given that Australia only had a population of 7,000,000 in 1940, it was in no position to act as a belligerent on it's own. Which would have been the case if Britain fell.
I agree with most of what you say, the problem is Japan as you note, but to fight Japan, Australia needs the Royal Navy to stand much of a chance, so it is somewhat tied to the British position not to forget the German-Japanese alliance that could well force their hands anyhow. You mention the Germans acting against the British people, but do you seriously expect that there would not be a significant resistence movement in Britain anyhow that would cause exactly the same responses? Australia may well want out for practical reasons, but Japan may well force the issue as soon at the US imposes an embargo on oil trade. I think Australia will be overtaken by events on a global scale, ending up siding with the US and whatever forces remain of the British home forces and navy, and I do not think the US-Japanese conflict was avoidable by 1940, they had been looking towards it for over thirty years at this point.

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Re: If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#9

Post by Zirran » 17 Nov 2016, 21:49

Interesting view points. Doing a little more digging after reading your replies, I looked into the Prime Minsters of the Dominions at the time.

The Australian and New Zealand PM's seem to have been of the mind that if Britain fell they would seek peace.

Canada's PM seems to have wanted to continue on the fight, but I wonder what the situation would have been like with others having, the Monarchy, the British Government, possibly several other governments in exile and several foreign royals in exile on their shore.

The most interesting is South Africa's PM Jan Smuts. If Wikipedia is to be believed, there was a plan if Churchill were to die or became incapacitated, Jan Smuts would be made Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. A plan thought up by Churchill's secretary Sir John Colville. An interesting prospect with British wealth and partial political power on the other side of the Atlantic and it's new Prime Minister of 2 countries at the bottom of the world.

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Re: If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#10

Post by steverodgers801 » 18 Nov 2016, 02:39

That would be difficult because it may result in the lack of support from the CW for their fight against Japan

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Re: If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#11

Post by Terry Duncan » 18 Nov 2016, 18:48

Zirran wrote:The Australian and New Zealand PM's seem to have been of the mind that if Britain fell they would seek peace.
I think that although they may desire peace, they have no ability whatsoever to effect their own destiny and will find Japan forces their policy into remaining belligerent. Neither can defend themselves against a Japanese invasion, they need US support as well as British to survive as soon as Japan opens hostilities. So from what I can see, this all depends on what happens between the US and Japan, as if the US imposes an oil embargo, Japan must act as she did to the SW Asia area or come to a halt very quickly. Having the US onside is far too important to risk over any dealings with Germany, and by late 1940/early 1941 the US-German relations have soured and it is all too likely Hitler will force the hand of the US as he did historically, soon after Japan acts. The Dominions are small, but albeit very important pawns in a far greater struggle that is about to break out. Even if they did initially come to terms with Germany, it is hard to see that they have much in the way of options as soon as Japan acts to secure oil.

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Re: If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#12

Post by Zirran » 19 Nov 2016, 17:31

Well if Britain did fall in late 1940 and Pearl Harbour is a year away, surely they couldn't have anticipated a Japanese invasion or belligerency when they were fighting a war in China? French Indo-China was invaded by the Japanese in September 1940, mostly to cut off supplies being transported to China. Would Australia and New Zealand fall under that category when they were thousands of miles away from that area of Japanese operations in late 1940?

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Re: If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#13

Post by Pips » 20 Nov 2016, 11:03

Despite all the talk of Britain continuing the fight if the country itself fell, the point is mute. America was neutral, Canada far removed from Europe, without any ability to act as a base (by itself) for belligerent action. The Britain population itself would be hostage to any action by British forces/leadership in Canada. And I seriously doubt that Royal Family would desert it's people in their greatest hour of need.The European war would to all intents be over.

Australia was indeed seriously concerned about the prospects of a belligerent Japan. And for that very singular reason Australia would have made peace with Germany if Britain had fallen in 1940. It did view itself (along with New Zealand) as totally on it's own. Britain would not come to it's aid in the event of Japan acting belligerently as it was now an occupied country, and America was in 1940 clearly isolationist in outlook.

Australian leadership clearly was of the view of ending any ongoing conflict with Germany; and of keeping as low a profile as possible on the international scene.

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Re: If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#14

Post by Terry Duncan » 21 Nov 2016, 16:17

Zirran wrote:Well if Britain did fall in late 1940 and Pearl Harbour is a year away, surely they couldn't have anticipated a Japanese invasion or belligerency when they were fighting a war in China? French Indo-China was invaded by the Japanese in September 1940, mostly to cut off supplies being transported to China. Would Australia and New Zealand fall under that category when they were thousands of miles away from that area of Japanese operations in late 1940?
Australia and New Zealand had been considering what to do in the case of a Japanese based war in the Pacific from the 1920's, and by 1940 it was clearly on the cards as US-Japanese relations deteriorated. The key issue had long since been pinpointed, Japan notoriously lacked many of the resources it needed and they could all be be obtained in SE Asia with minimal effort unless the US intervened. I would say that even if Germany managed to get some agreement by late 1940, it would be voided as soon as the US and Japan go to war, which is probably unavoidable by late 1940.

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Re: If Britain fell in late 1940, what about the Empire?

#15

Post by Terry Duncan » 21 Nov 2016, 16:30

Pips wrote:Despite all the talk of Britain continuing the fight if the country itself fell, the point is mute. America was neutral, Canada far removed from Europe, without any ability to act as a base (by itself) for belligerent action. The Britain population itself would be hostage to any action by British forces/leadership in Canada. And I seriously doubt that Royal Family would desert it's people in their greatest hour of need.The European war would to all intents be over.

Australia was indeed seriously concerned about the prospects of a belligerent Japan. And for that very singular reason Australia would have made peace with Germany if Britain had fallen in 1940. It did view itself (along with New Zealand) as totally on it's own. Britain would not come to it's aid in the event of Japan acting belligerently as it was now an occupied country, and America was in 1940 clearly isolationist in outlook.

Australian leadership clearly was of the view of ending any ongoing conflict with Germany; and of keeping as low a profile as possible on the international scene.
The Germans had many peoples hostage by late 1940, and most of them had governments in exile actively encouraging resistence, so quite why Britain is going to be any different is hard to see. The Royals were indeed planning to go to Canada, and the Germans had Edward VIII all too willing to rush back to be king again, though by 1940 he wouldnt have been a very popular ruler given his actions to that point during the war.

The US in 1940 was hardly isolationist with regards the Pacific, there had been rising tensions with Japan over China since 1937, and they sort of need Australia at least as a forward base to fight in SE Asia. 1940 sees Rooseveldt re-elected, and war with Japan over China is almost inevitable from then.

There is also the small problem of Hitler wanting his war with the USSR, as providing garrisons for both France and Britain is likely to rule out such an attack for quite some time, and given the European 'have another go later' attitude to losing a war, Hitler would likely have either had to station a huge force there for years and await the USSR to attack him, or trust to Britain being good and not simply resuming hostilities as soon as he was engaged elsewhere.

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