ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

[paspartoo]

[quote="paspartoo]
which battle are you referring to? First Alamein was in July, Second Alamein in October. …[/quote]

I said September 1, didn´t I ? ... this one http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Alam_el_Halfa

greetings, the pb[/quote]

Supplies in August were 22.500t (59%), compared with 23.901t (89%) in July. In absolute numbers they are the same, although the percentage is lower. I also have a report from an Italian friend showing the receipts by port for August and 71% of the fuel is sent to Tobruk, rest in Benghazi.

Getting the fuel to N.Africa is not the same as getting the supplies to the front.

[Polar bear]

hi,

Getting the fuel to N.Africa is not the same as getting the supplies to the front.

Are you implying that even if the RN and RAF would have sunk no ship, Rommel´s fuel problem at Alam-et-Halfa would have been the same ?

greetings, the pb

[paspartoo]

hi,

Getting the fuel to N.Africa is not the same as getting the supplies to the front.

Are you implying that even if the RN and RAF would have sunk no ship, Rommel´s fuel problem at Alam-et-Halfa would have been the same ?

greetings, the pb

More or less yeah.
Let's say the percentage for August was 89% same as July. That would mean total would be 34.142 (11.643 higher than historical). But these low losses could only come from using Tripoli and Benghazi. So there would be more fuel but Rommel would see none of it because he was far from his ports.

From the tables i have the Italians succeeded in moving oil supplies to Tobruk in August so just looking at total deliveries doesn't give you the whole picture. 1t of oil in Tripoli has different 'value' from 1t in Benghazi , from 1t in Tobruk.

[Polar bear]

hi,

OK, thanks, being a naval history specialist, I had not looked at this problem that way.

greetings, the pb

[Polar bear]

hi,

In terms of looking at WW2, it is really intersting how pivotal the ULTRA code breaking program was. To me, with the Allies breaking cracking the Enigma machines and the regular ability to read German codes, it looks like it was pivotal in winning the war for two theatres, The Atlantic, and North Africa.
Could Germany have won the war without the Allies and their Ultra program?

Back to the beginning: IMO the answer ist a very definite NO, in general and in the two theatres you mentioned.
But ULTRA reduced the price of victory the Allied had to pay (in blood and toil).

greetings, the pb

[deathlibrarian]

Thanks to everyone for their comments - some great points... I'm a lightweight scholar compared to you lot!