ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

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paspartoo
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Re: ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

Postby paspartoo » 31 Jan 2013 08:48

Polar bear wrote:[quote="paspartoo]
which battle are you referring to? First Alamein was in July, Second Alamein in October. …[/quote]

I said September 1, didn´t I ? ... this one http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Alam_el_Halfa

greetings, the pb[/quote]


Supplies in August were 22.500t (59%), compared with 23.901t (89%) in July. In absolute numbers they are the same, although the percentage is lower. I also have a report from an Italian friend showing the receipts by port for August and 71% of the fuel is sent to Tobruk, rest in Benghazi.

Getting the fuel to N.Africa is not the same as getting the supplies to the front.
A simple economist with an unhealthy interest in military and intelligence history.....
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Polar bear
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Re: ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

Postby Polar bear » 31 Jan 2013 09:49

hi,

paspartoo wrote:Getting the fuel to N.Africa is not the same as getting the supplies to the front.


Are you implying that even if the RN and RAF would have sunk no ship, Rommel´s fuel problem at Alam-et-Halfa would have been the same ?

greetings, the pb
Peace hath her victories no less renowned than War
(John Milton, the poet, in a letter to the Lord General Cromwell, May 1652)

paspartoo
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Re: ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

Postby paspartoo » 31 Jan 2013 11:08

Polar bear wrote:hi,

paspartoo wrote:Getting the fuel to N.Africa is not the same as getting the supplies to the front.


Are you implying that even if the RN and RAF would have sunk no ship, Rommel´s fuel problem at Alam-et-Halfa would have been the same ?

greetings, the pb


More or less yeah.
Let's say the percentage for August was 89% same as July. That would mean total would be 34.142 (11.643 higher than historical). But these low losses could only come from using Tripoli and Benghazi. So there would be more fuel but Rommel would see none of it because he was far from his ports.

From the tables i have the Italians succeeded in moving oil supplies to Tobruk in August so just looking at total deliveries doesn't give you the whole picture. 1t of oil in Tripoli has different 'value' from 1t in Benghazi , from 1t in Tobruk.
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Polar bear
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Re: ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

Postby Polar bear » 31 Jan 2013 11:16

hi,

OK, thanks, being a naval history specialist, I had not looked at this problem that way.

greetings, the pb
Peace hath her victories no less renowned than War
(John Milton, the poet, in a letter to the Lord General Cromwell, May 1652)

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Polar bear
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Re: ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

Postby Polar bear » 31 Jan 2013 11:26

hi,

deathlibrarian wrote:In terms of looking at WW2, it is really intersting how pivotal the ULTRA code breaking program was. To me, with the Allies breaking cracking the Enigma machines and the regular ability to read German codes, it looks like it was pivotal in winning the war for two theatres, The Atlantic, and North Africa.
Could Germany have won the war without the Allies and their Ultra program?


Back to the beginning: IMO the answer ist a very definite NO, in general and in the two theatres you mentioned.
But ULTRA reduced the price of victory the Allied had to pay (in blood and toil).

greetings, the pb
Peace hath her victories no less renowned than War
(John Milton, the poet, in a letter to the Lord General Cromwell, May 1652)

deathlibrarian
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Re: ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

Postby deathlibrarian » 04 Feb 2013 13:36

Thanks to everyone for their comments - some great points... I'm a lightweight scholar compared to you lot!

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Urmel
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Re: ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

Postby Urmel » 27 Aug 2013 14:39

paspartoo wrote:
Polar bear wrote:hi,

paspartoo wrote:Getting the fuel to N.Africa is not the same as getting the supplies to the front.


Are you implying that even if the RN and RAF would have sunk no ship, Rommel´s fuel problem at Alam-et-Halfa would have been the same ?

greetings, the pb


More or less yeah.
Let's say the percentage for August was 89% same as July. That would mean total would be 34.142 (11.643 higher than historical). But these low losses could only come from using Tripoli and Benghazi. So there would be more fuel but Rommel would see none of it because he was far from his ports.

From the tables i have the Italians succeeded in moving oil supplies to Tobruk in August so just looking at total deliveries doesn't give you the whole picture. 1t of oil in Tripoli has different 'value' from 1t in Benghazi , from 1t in Tobruk.


I think the Germans assumed a factor of 6:1 for a ton of fuel landed in Bardia versus one landed in Tripoli. But this was in 1941, with increasing use of railway and coastal shipping, this would improve. Re-directing traffic to Benghazi and Tripoli in order to reduce shipping losses on the Tobruk route may actually lead to less fuel being available.
The excellence of [German] forward repair and recovery organisation gives us a salutary lesson in this respect. 7 Armoured Division report, Sept. 1941

The CRUSADER Project - The Winter Battle in the Desert 1941/42

paspartoo
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Re: ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

Postby paspartoo » 27 Aug 2013 16:17

I assume you mean more not less?
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Urmel
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Re: ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

Postby Urmel » 27 Aug 2013 16:54

No, I mean less. If the ratio was really that horrid, then as long as at least 15% of the fuel sent to Tobruk arrived, you would end up with more fuel than you would have had if you send all fuel to Tripoli, and 100% of it arrived in Tripoli. This only gets worse if some of the fuel sent to Tripoli is also lost.

However, I am not sure I believe the ratio.
The excellence of [German] forward repair and recovery organisation gives us a salutary lesson in this respect. 7 Armoured Division report, Sept. 1941

The CRUSADER Project - The Winter Battle in the Desert 1941/42

paspartoo
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Re: ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

Postby paspartoo » 27 Aug 2013 17:19

Things change based on what ratio you assign to each port and the percentage that will get through.

For example let’s say 3-1 ratio between Benghazi and Tobruk. Assuming 75% for Benghazi and 30% for Tobruk you get for 100 tons 75 in Benghazi and 30 in Tobruk. Using the 3-1 ratio 75 Benghazi tons are like 25 Tobruk ones, so in this case it is better to send it to Tobruk.

You can play with ratios and percentages if you have reliable information. There is also the issue of compounding losses and their effect on shipping capacity. After doing some calculations I see that supplies in Tripoli are simply too far away and a waste of effort. So it’s basically Benghazi and even then the effort is worth it only if the Tobruk percentage is very low.

For example let’s say ratio between Tripoli and Tobruk is not 6-1 but 3-1 and percentages landed 90% for Tripoli. The percentage for Tobruk would need to be below 30% for the movement of supplies to make sense.
My ‘scientific’ observation is that there are two ratios:

1). Equivalent tons between harbors, let’s say 3-1 between Tripoli and Tobruk. Let’s call this ratio x.
2). The ratio between the percentages of successful transport of supplies. Let’s say 90% for Tripoli and 50% for Tobruk, so ratio is 1.8. Let’s call this y.

If y>x then it makes sense to transport over land. Correct?
A simple economist with an unhealthy interest in military and intelligence history.....
http://chris-intel-corner.blogspot.com/

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Urmel
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Re: ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

Postby Urmel » 27 Aug 2013 19:11

That's how I see it. Of course, then you get into other issues, such as overall capacity, appropriate size of vessels (Benghazi could only take smaller vessels), storage capacity, etc. But fundamentally, yes.
The excellence of [German] forward repair and recovery organisation gives us a salutary lesson in this respect. 7 Armoured Division report, Sept. 1941

The CRUSADER Project - The Winter Battle in the Desert 1941/42

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Polar bear
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Re: ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

Postby Polar bear » 28 Aug 2013 12:04

hi,

it´s, basically, an OR (Operations Research) problem.

you have to figure out an algorithm with, e.g., the factors
- port capacity
- overland distance from ports to the demand post (the front) with, e.g., fuel needs of land transport
- risk factor of sea route to different ports
- size of convoy (related to port capacity (see above)
- available escort, maritime and airborne
and so on ...

That´s what the Allied used to improve, e.g. their North Atlantic convoy system.

greetings, the pb
Peace hath her victories no less renowned than War
(John Milton, the poet, in a letter to the Lord General Cromwell, May 1652)

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Urmel
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Re: ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

Postby Urmel » 28 Aug 2013 12:32

Basically, yes. I can however not find any evidence to a thorough OR approach being taken by the Axis in this particular regard.
The excellence of [German] forward repair and recovery organisation gives us a salutary lesson in this respect. 7 Armoured Division report, Sept. 1941

The CRUSADER Project - The Winter Battle in the Desert 1941/42

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Polar bear
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Re: ULTRA/Enigma code breaking and Germany in WW2

Postby Polar bear » 28 Aug 2013 15:11

hi,

Urmel wrote: I can however not find any evidence to a thorough OR approach being taken by the Axis in this particular regard.

yes. AFAIK, they simply didn´t use that approach.

greetings, the pb
Peace hath her victories no less renowned than War
(John Milton, the poet, in a letter to the Lord General Cromwell, May 1652)


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